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CBA	
  OF	
  FLOOD	
  MANAGEMENT	
  FOR	
  HO	
  CHI	
  MINH	
  
CITY:	
  
RDM	
  ANALYSIS	
  AND	
  BEYOND	
  
	
  
Ho	
  Long	
  Phi	
  
The	
  Center	
  of	
  Water	
  Management	
  and	
  Climate	
  Change	
  
	
  
Phnom	
  Penh,	
  Nov	
  22,	
  2015	
  
The	
  Uncertainties	
  
Uncertainties	
  Urbanization	
  
Rainfall	
  
Sea	
  level	
  rise	
  
Land	
  
subsidence	
  
Upstream	
  
flow	
  
Economic	
  
growth	
  
Hazard	
  drivers	
  
Exposure	
  drivers	
   Vulnerability	
  drivers	
  
Three	
  strategies	
  
RDM	
  analysis	
  
PoLicy Options Exogenous Uncertainties
•  Tidal barrier (largest scale)
•  MARD plan (medium scale)
•  MARD variant (smallest scale)
•  SLR
•  Local Rainfall
•  Upstream flood
•  Modeling accuracy
•  Hazard frequency distribution
•  Implementation costs
•  Potential damage asset
•  Economic growth
•  Implementation phasing
•  Probabilistic damage function
Metrics Relationships
•  Benefit/cost
•  Flooded area
•  Hydraulic model SOBEK 2D
RDM	
  analysis	
  
0.0	
  
5.0	
  
10.0	
  
15.0	
  
20.0	
  
25.0	
  
30.0	
  
35.0	
  
40.0	
  
B/C	
  
Scenarios	
  
Robustness	
  under	
  growth	
  and	
  
frequency	
  uncertainty	
  
Tidal	
  barrier	
  
Mard	
  plan	
  
Mard	
  variant	
  
Robustness	
  under	
  climate	
  change	
  
Implemetation	
  feasibility	
  
Technical	
  
Social	
  
Institutional	
  
Financial	
  
Strategy	
   Financial	
  
ability	
  
Technical	
  
ability	
  
Institutional	
  
ability	
  
Social	
  
adaptability	
  
Tidal	
  barrier	
   Low	
   Low	
   Low	
   High	
  
MARD	
  plan	
   Medium	
   Medium	
   Medium	
   High	
  
MARD	
  
variant	
  
High	
   High	
   High	
   Medium	
  
Conclusions	
  
§  RDM	
  just	
  provides	
  more	
  information	
  and	
  still	
  leaves	
  plenty	
  
room	
  for	
  personal	
  taste	
  of	
  decision	
  maker.	
  
§  Implementation	
  feasibility	
  analysis	
  may	
  supply	
  additional	
  
clues	
  for	
  decision	
  making.	
  
§  I	
  guess	
  the	
  strategy	
  MARD	
  variant	
  may	
  be	
  the	
  choice,	
  how	
  
about	
  you?	
  
.	
  
Thank you for your attention
Special	
  thanks	
  to:	
  
	
  
-­‐ FIM	
  project	
  team	
  for	
  the	
  data	
  and	
  information;	
  
-­‐ Robert	
  Lempert	
  for	
  enabling	
  frequency	
  sensitivity	
  analysis	
  and	
  comments;	
  

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CBA of Flood Management Ho Chi Minh

  • 1. CBA  OF  FLOOD  MANAGEMENT  FOR  HO  CHI  MINH   CITY:   RDM  ANALYSIS  AND  BEYOND     Ho  Long  Phi   The  Center  of  Water  Management  and  Climate  Change     Phnom  Penh,  Nov  22,  2015  
  • 2. The  Uncertainties   Uncertainties  Urbanization   Rainfall   Sea  level  rise   Land   subsidence   Upstream   flow   Economic   growth   Hazard  drivers   Exposure  drivers   Vulnerability  drivers  
  • 4. RDM  analysis   PoLicy Options Exogenous Uncertainties •  Tidal barrier (largest scale) •  MARD plan (medium scale) •  MARD variant (smallest scale) •  SLR •  Local Rainfall •  Upstream flood •  Modeling accuracy •  Hazard frequency distribution •  Implementation costs •  Potential damage asset •  Economic growth •  Implementation phasing •  Probabilistic damage function Metrics Relationships •  Benefit/cost •  Flooded area •  Hydraulic model SOBEK 2D
  • 5. RDM  analysis   0.0   5.0   10.0   15.0   20.0   25.0   30.0   35.0   40.0   B/C   Scenarios   Robustness  under  growth  and   frequency  uncertainty   Tidal  barrier   Mard  plan   Mard  variant   Robustness  under  climate  change  
  • 6. Implemetation  feasibility   Technical   Social   Institutional   Financial   Strategy   Financial   ability   Technical   ability   Institutional   ability   Social   adaptability   Tidal  barrier   Low   Low   Low   High   MARD  plan   Medium   Medium   Medium   High   MARD   variant   High   High   High   Medium  
  • 7. Conclusions   §  RDM  just  provides  more  information  and  still  leaves  plenty   room  for  personal  taste  of  decision  maker.   §  Implementation  feasibility  analysis  may  supply  additional   clues  for  decision  making.   §  I  guess  the  strategy  MARD  variant  may  be  the  choice,  how   about  you?   .  
  • 8. Thank you for your attention Special  thanks  to:     -­‐ FIM  project  team  for  the  data  and  information;   -­‐ Robert  Lempert  for  enabling  frequency  sensitivity  analysis  and  comments;