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Manhattan Third Quarter 2010 Real Estate Market Report
1. Manhattan
Market Overview 3Q 10
A Quarterly Survey of Manhattan Co-op and Condo Sales
Prepared by Miller Samuel Inc.
Appraisal and consulting services covering
the New York City metropolitan area
Price indicators rise, partly due to Manhattan Market Matrix Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year Qtr
shift toward larger sales Average Sales Price $1,487,472 3.8% $1,432,712 12.4% $1,323,462
Average Price per Square Foot $1,095 4.3% $1,051 10% $996
Number of sales exceed same period last
Median Sales Price $914,000 1.7% $899,000 7.5% $850,000
year as inventory slips After three consecutive
New Development $1,170,988 -16.1% $1,395,000 1.8% $1,150,000
quarters of double digit declines in year over
Re-Sale $877,200 9.7% $800,000 17% $750,000
year inventory levels, the pace of the declines
Number of Sales 2,661 -3.4% 2,756 19.3% 2,230
appears to be easing. There were 8,123 listings at
Days on Market (from Last List Date) 125 18.8% 105 -25.5% 167
the end of the third quarter, 3.2% less than 8,389
Listing Discount (from Last List Price) 5.8% 9.1% 7.6%
listings in the prior year quarter and essentially
Listing Inventory 8,123 -0.4% 8,157 -3.2% 8,389
unchanged from the 8,157 listings in the prior
quarter. There were 2,661 sales in the third
QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN
quarter, 19.3% above 2,230 sales in the prior QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN
$2,000,000
year quarter, but 3.4% less than 2,756 sales in the $2,000,000
$1,800,000
prior quarter. The same period a year ago had $1,800,000
$1,600,000
represented a sharp increase in activity after the $1,600,000
$1,400,000
post-Lehman lull in the first half of 2009 buoyed $1,400,000
$1,200,000
by a surging stock market. With the increase $1,200,000
$1,000,000
in the number of sales came a shift in the mix $1,000,000
$800,000
of apartment sizes that sold during the period. $800,000
$600,000
There was a sharp decline in studio sales to 9% $600,000
$400,000
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
market share from 17% in the same period last $400,000
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
year, more consistent with the 5-year average NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE New Developement Re-sale
NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE
$2,000,000 New Developement Re-sale 50%
of 16%. However, 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom
$2,000,000 50%
apartments more than made up for the decline, $1,600,000 40%
Median Sales Price
rising 10% in total market share. Given the shift to $1,600,000
Median Sales Price
40%
2-bedroom apartments and drop in studio sales, $1,200,000 30%
$1,200,000 30%
the overall price indicators were skewed higher. $800,000 20%
As a result, individual housing prices would be $800,000 20%
best characterized as stable. New development $400,000 10%
Market Share New Development (Units)
$400,000 10%
sales comprised a 21.6% market share of total unit $0
Market Share New Development (Units)
0%
3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10
sales, down from 22.2% in the same period last $0 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 0%
year and down from 22.6% in the prior quarter. AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP Downtown East Side West Side Uptown
After falling from a peak of 57.6% in the second AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP
and prior quarters The median sales price of Downtown other price indicators Side
$1,200 The East Side West followed a similar
Uptown
quarter of 2006, new development market share $1,200
a Manhattan apartment was $914,000, 7.5% pattern. Average sales price was $1,487,472 for
$1,000
has generally stabilized over the past year. higher than $850,000 in the prior year quarter the third quarter, 12.4% higher than $1,323,462
$1,000
$800
Price indicators show gains over prior year and 1.7% above $899,000 in the prior quarter. in the same period a year ago and 3.8% higher
$800
$600
$600
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$400
$400
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$200
2. 3Q 10 MANhAttAN MArket overvIew Prudential douglas elliMan real estate
than $1,432,712 in the prior quarter reaching
its second highest level in two years. Price per
square foot was $1,095 in the third quarter, the
Co-oP market the past seven years had pressed co-op sales
market share as low as 34.6%. There was an
Number of sales jumped as unprecedented shift in the mix of apartment
fourth consecutive quarter above the $1,000 sales by bedroom causing a spike in the overall
per square foot threshold since falling to $996 inventory rose price indicators in the third quarter.
per square foot in the prior year quarter. Price Listing inventory edged higher as sales surged
per square foot was 4.3% higher than $1,051 in QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN Price indicators rose as larger units gained
There were 4,065 listings at the end of the third
the prior quarter. When parsing out the market $2,000,000 market share Studio apartment market share
quarter, 5.9% more than 3,840 listings in the
QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN
by number of bedrooms, median sales price $1,800,000 sales fell by half to 12% from 24% in the prior
same period
$2,000,000 last year and 3% higher than 3,948
increased in the 3-bedroom and 4-bedroom $1,600,000
$1,800,000the prior quarter. There were 1,320 year quarter and from 16% in the prior quarter.
listings in
markets and fell in the three smaller size
sales in the third quarter, 32.7% more than 995 The first time buyer tax credit in 2009 was a key
$1,400,000
$1,600,000
categories reflecting not only a skew towards $1,200,000
sales in the same period last year and 9.7% higher driver in the elevated market share of smaller
$1,400,000
larger apartments, but the performance of those $1,000,000
$1,200,000
than 1,203 sales in the prior quarter. The surge apartments last year. The entry-level market
$800,000
market segments by price. $1,000,000
in sales likely incentivized more sellers to bring also tends to be the first segment to drop out
$600,000
$800,000
Days on market and listing discount lower their properties00 the market to take advantage of the market during economic weakness and
$400,000
$600,000 to 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
than last year’s result The number of days it of improved conditions01
$400,000 causing02 listing inventory the first segment to07 return. It has now been a
00 03 04 05 06 08 09Re-sale 10
takes to sell a property from the last time the NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE
to rise. Third quarter co-op listing inventory year since sales activity began to return to levels
New Developement
list price was changed, if ever, was 125 days or $2,000,000
represented 50% of total apartment inventory, post-Lehman thatNew Developement consistent with
NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE were more Re-sale 50%
42 days faster than the same period a year ago the first time in nearly four years that parity was historic norms. The market share of 2-bedroom
$2,000,000
$1,600,000
50%
40%
Median Sales Price
when days on market was 167. Days on market reached excluding condo shadow inventory. apartments, the second largest segment of40% the
$1,600,000
was nearly three weeks longer than the 105 $1,200,000 Median Sales Price 30%
Co-op sales comprised 49.6% of apartment co-op market after 1-bedrooms, surged 11% to
days in the prior quarter which was a recent low $1,200,000 30%
sales in the quarter, the second highest amount 37% market share from 26% in the prior 20%
$800,000 year
watermark. The contraction of marketing time
in two years. Over the last twenty years, co-op quarter and 7% from 30% in the prior quarter.
$800,000 20%
was reflective of the increase in sales activity $400,000 10%
sales averaged 57.6% of all apartment sales per This pronounced Share New Development (Units)
Market
shift caused all co-op price
and decline in listing inventory over the past $400,000 10%
quarter. $0 condo 09 development boom of 1Q 10
The 3Q new 4Q 09 indicators to Market Share New Development 10The median
show10
2Q significant gains. 3Q
(Units) 0%
year. Listing discount—the percentage difference
$0 0%
between the list price at time of contract to the 3Q 09
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP
4Q 09 1Q 10
Downtown
2Q 10
East Side West Side
3Q 10
Uptown
contract date—fell to 5.8% from 7.6% in the prior $1,200
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP Downtown East Side West Side Uptown
year quarter and down from from 9.1% in the
$1,200
$1,000
prior quarter. The decline in both indicators over
the past year correlated with the increase in the $1,000
$800
number of sales suggests that sellers who price $800
$600
properties closer to market value are more likely $600
$400
to sell.
$400
$200
Seasonality returns After a two-year period of
$0
$200
economic turmoil, the housing market is beginning 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10
$0
to show signs that seasonality is returning. The 3Q 09 4Q 09
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP
1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10
third quarter was an extension of the second 20% 200
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP
quarter “spring” market characterized by sales and
20% 200
price stabilization. In 2009, the “spring” market 16% 175
was delayed by three months as the economic 16% 175
12% 150
challenges unfolded and the comparison against
12% 150
last year’s delayed “spring market” still show 8%
Days On Market
125
gains. Low mortgage rates, favorable exchange 8% 125
4% Listing Discount Days On Market 100
rates for international purchasers and prices well
4% 100
below peak levels are driving demand, while high 0% Listing Discount
3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 75
unemployment, shadow inventory and tight credit 0% 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 75
continue to temper improvement. AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO Downtown East Side West Side Uptown
$2,500
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO Downtown East Side West Side Uptown
$2,500
CO-Op Market Matrix Current Qtr %$2,000
Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year Qtr CO-Op apartMent Mix % of Total Median Price
Average Sales Price $1,251,959 12.5%
$2,000 $1,113,173 24.5% $1,005,744 Studio 12% $363,308
$1,500
Average Price per Square Foot $990 5% $943 14.3% $866
Median Sales Price $777,500 $1,500
11.5% $697,501 23.4% $630,000 1 bedroom 38% $577,655
$1,000
Number of Sales 1,320 9.7%
$1,000
1,203 32.7% 995 2 bedroom 37% $1,324,502
$500
Days on Market (from Last List Date) 106 15.2% 92 -20.9% 134
3 bedroom 10% $2,950,263
Listing Discount (from Last List Price) 2.8% $500 7.3% 12.5%
$0 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10
Listing Inventory 4,065 3% 3,948 5.9% 3,840 4+ bedroom 3% $8,040,706
$0 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO
15%
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO 300
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15%
website to
12% browse listings and learn more about market trends
Days On Market
300
240
12% 240
9% 180
3. $400,000
$600,000 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
$400,000
NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE05
00 01 02 03 04 06 07 08
New Developement 09Re-sale 10
$2,000,000 Prudential douglas elliMan real estate MANhAttAN MArket overvIew
NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE New Developement Re-sale 50%
3Q 10
$2,000,000 50%
$1,600,000 40%
Median Sales Price
CoNDo market
$1,600,000 40%
$1,200,000 Median Sales Price 30% up 8.9% from $1,579,438 in the same period last
sales price of a Manhattan co-op jumped 23.4%
$1,200,000 30%
20% year and increased 2.3% from $1,680,236 in the
to $800,000 from $630,000 in the prior year
$777,500
prior quarter. Price per square foot reached
quarter and increased 11.5% from $697,501 in Modest rise in sales, modest
$800,000 20%
10%
$400,000 Market Share New Development (Units) $1,199 in the third quarter, an 8.9% increase from
the prior quarter. Average sales price followed
$400,000
$0
the same patter rising 24.5% to $1,251,959 from 1Q 10
3Q 09 4Q 09
decline inMarket Share New Development 10
inventory 3Q (Units) 10%
2Q 10 0% $1,101 per square foot in the prior year quarter
Price indicators rose as 2-bedrooms gained and rose 5.7% from $1,134 in the prior quarter.
the prior year quarter result of 09
$0 3Q 09 4Q $1,005,744 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 0%
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP The average square footage for a condo in the
and increased 12.5% from $1,113,173 in the prior market share Median sales price of a Manhattan
Downtown East Side West Side Uptown
$1,200
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP condo wasEast Side
$1,120,000, West Side higher than
10.3% third quarter was 1,428 for a new development
quarter. Price per square foot also showed Downtown Uptown
$1,200 unit and 1,439 for a re-sale property, nearly
pronounced increases. The price per square $1,015,124 in the same period last year and 1.8%
$1,000
the same result. Over the past five years, new
foot of a Manhattan co-op was $990 per square higher than $1,100,000 in the prior quarter. A key
$1,000
$800
development condos edged out re-sales for an
foot, up 14.3% from $866 per square foot in the factor in the overall increase in price indicators
$800
$600 average of 86 square feet.
prior quarter and up 5% from $943 in the prior was the shift in mix towards larger unit sales
$600
$400
quarter. after the high concentration of first time buyers Number of sales rose and inventory slipped
$400
$200 There were 1,341 sales in the third quarter,
Listing discount and days on market declined and smaller unit sales in 2009. This significant
$0
$200 8.6% more than the 1,235 sales of the prior year
Days on market3Q 09 third quarter averaged 106 shift is evident in2Qthe studio and 3Q 10
in the 4Q 09 1Q 10 10 2-bedroom
$0 markets. Studio apartment sales comprised 6% quarter, but 13.7% less than the 1,553 sales of
days, nearly one 093Q month faster than 134 days in
4Q 09
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP
1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10
the prior quarter. The condo market saw a more
the prior year quarter, but 2 weeks slower than in the third quarter from 12% in the same period
20%
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP 200 modest gain in the number of sales over the past
the prior quarter average of 92 days, the lowest last year. Over the last ten years, studio sales
20% 200 year than the co-op market did. Listing inventory,
average in five and half years. Listing discount have represented an average of 11% of total175
16% unit
exclusive of shadow inventory, declined 10.8%
fell to 2.8% from 12.5% in the same period last sales. 2-bedroom apartments jumped to a 175
16% 40%
150
12% to 4,058 units, from 4,549 in the same period
year and from 7.3% in the prior quarter. The market share from 34% in the same period last
12%
8%
150 a year ago and slipped 3.6% from 4,209 in the
surge in sales activity yet modest uptick in listing year, but still falling short Days On Market
of their 45% market 125
prior quarter. The monthly absorption rate is 9.1
4% was consistent with the year over year share average over the past On Market Average
inventoryListing Discount
8%
Days decade. 125
100
months, below the 11.1 absorption rate during the
contraction in both quarterly indicators. sales price was $1,719,296 in the third quarter,
4%
0% Listing Discount
3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10
100
3Q 10 75 prior year quarter and below the 9.4 average
0% 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 75
monthly absorption rate for the prior decade.
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO Downtown East Side West Side Uptown
Days on market fell as listing discount
$2,500
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO Downtown East Side West Side Uptown expanded Despite the rise in the number of
$2,500 sales and the decline in listing inventory, the
$2,000
$2,000 listing discount continues to expand contrary to
$1,500
expectations. The listing discount was 8.8% in
$1,500
$1,000 the third quarter, higher than 3.6% in the same
$1,000 period last year, but less than 10.5% in the prior
$500
quarter. Days on market has seen significant
$500
$0 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 volatility over the past year, falling to 143 days
$0 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 from 194 days in the prior year quarter and up
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO
from 115 days in the prior quarter. However this
15%
LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO 300
variation is due to the swings in market share
15%
12% 300
240 between re-sale and new development sales
Days On Market
12% 240 over the past year. In the third quarter, days on
9% 180
Days On Market market for new development sales was 165 days
9% 180
6% 120 while days on market for re-sales was 118 days.
6% 120
60
3%
Listing Discount
3% 60
0
0% 3Q 09 Listing Discount
4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10
0% 0
3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LUXURY AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LOFT
COndO Market Matrix
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LUXURY Current Qtr
$2,500 % Chg
AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LOFT Prior Year Qtr
$1,500 Prior Qtr % Chg COndO apartMent Mix % of Total Median Price
Average Sales Price
$2,200
$2,500 $1,719,296 2.3%
$1,500 $1,680,236 8.9% $1,579,438 Studio 6% $455,000
$1,300
Average Price per Square Foot
$1,900
$2,200 $1,199 5.7% $1,134 8.9% $1,101
$1,300
$1,100 $1,100,000 1 bedroom 33% $680,191
Median Sales Price $1,120,000 1.8% 10.3% $1,015,124
$1,600
$1,900
Number of Sales 1,341 -13.7% $900
$1,100 1,553 8.6% 1,235 2 bedroom 40% $1,310,000
$1,600
$1,300
Days on Market (from Last List Date) 143 24.3% 115 -26.3% 194
$1,000
$1,300 3Q 09 $900
$700 3 bedroom 16% $2,650,000
Listing Discount (from Last List Price) 2Q 10
4Q 09 1Q 10 8.8%
3Q 10 10.5%4Q 09
3Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3.6%
3Q 10
$1,000 3Q 09
Listing Inventory 4,058 -3.6% $700 4,2094Q 09
-10.8% 10 4,549 4+ bedroom 5% $6,000,000
4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 3Q 09 1Q 2Q 10 3Q 10
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