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Manhattan
Market Overview                                                                                       3Q 10
A Quarterly Survey of Manhattan Co-op and Condo Sales




Prepared by Miller Samuel Inc.
Appraisal and consulting services covering
the New York City metropolitan area


Price indicators rise, partly due to                      Manhattan Market Matrix                    Current Qtr          % Chg       Prior Qtr       % Chg          Prior Year Qtr
shift toward larger sales                                 Average Sales Price                         $1,487,472           3.8%     $1,432,712         12.4%            $1,323,462
                                                          Average Price per Square Foot                  $1,095            4.3%        $1,051            10%                     $996
Number of sales exceed same period last
                                                          Median Sales Price                          $914,000             1.7%      $899,000            7.5%                 $850,000
year as inventory slips After three consecutive
                                                                              New Development        $1,170,988           -16.1%    $1,395,000           1.8%           $1,150,000
quarters of double digit declines in year over
                                                                                      Re-Sale          $877,200            9.7%      $800,000            17%                  $750,000
year inventory levels, the pace of the declines
                                                          Number of Sales                                    2,661         -3.4%           2,756       19.3%                     2,230
appears to be easing. There were 8,123 listings at
                                                          Days on Market (from Last List Date)                125         18.8%             105       -25.5%                       167
the end of the third quarter, 3.2% less than 8,389
                                                          Listing Discount (from Last List Price)            5.8%                          9.1%                                   7.6%
listings in the prior year quarter and essentially
                                                          Listing Inventory                                  8,123         -0.4%           8,157        -3.2%                    8,389
unchanged from the 8,157 listings in the prior
quarter. There were 2,661 sales in the third
                                                          QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN
quarter, 19.3% above 2,230 sales in the prior             QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN
                                                          $2,000,000
year quarter, but 3.4% less than 2,756 sales in the       $2,000,000
                                                          $1,800,000
prior quarter. The same period a year ago had             $1,800,000
                                                          $1,600,000
represented a sharp increase in activity after the        $1,600,000
                                                          $1,400,000
post-Lehman lull in the first half of 2009 buoyed         $1,400,000
                                                          $1,200,000
by a surging stock market. With the increase              $1,200,000
                                                          $1,000,000
in the number of sales came a shift in the mix            $1,000,000
                                                           $800,000
of apartment sizes that sold during the period.             $800,000
                                                            $600,000
There was a sharp decline in studio sales to 9%             $600,000
                                                            $400,000
                                                                              00     01         02      03           04        05     06        07        08           09         10
market share from 17% in the same period last               $400,000
                                                                              00     01         02      03           04        05     06        07         08          09         10
year, more consistent with the 5-year average             NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE                                    New Developement           Re-sale
                                                          NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE
                                                          $2,000,000                                                                          New Developement           Re-sale 50%
of 16%. However, 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom
                                                          $2,000,000                                                                                                              50%
apartments more than made up for the decline,             $1,600,000                                                                                                              40%
                                                                          Median Sales Price
rising 10% in total market share. Given the shift to      $1,600,000
                                                                          Median Sales Price
                                                                                                                                                                                  40%
2-bedroom apartments and drop in studio sales,            $1,200,000                                                                                                              30%
                                                          $1,200,000                                                                                                              30%
the overall price indicators were skewed higher.           $800,000                                                                                                               20%
As a result, individual housing prices would be            $800,000                                                                                                               20%
best characterized as stable. New development              $400,000                                                                                                               10%
                                                                                                                                       Market Share New Development (Units)
                                                           $400,000                                                                                                               10%
sales comprised a 21.6% market share of total unit                $0
                                                                                                                                       Market Share New Development (Units)
                                                                                                                                                                                  0%
                                                                       3Q 09                 4Q 09   1Q 10                                2Q 10                 3Q 10
sales, down from 22.2% in the same period last                    $0   3Q 09                 4Q 09   1Q 10                                2Q 10                 3Q 10             0%
year and down from 22.6% in the prior quarter.            AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP                             Downtown        East Side         West Side              Uptown
After falling from a peak of 57.6% in the second          AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP
                                                         and prior quarters The median sales price of Downtown other price indicators Side
                                                         $1,200                                          The         East Side     West followed a similar
                                                                                                                                                  Uptown
quarter of 2006, new development market share             $1,200
                                                         a Manhattan apartment was $914,000, 7.5% pattern. Average sales price was $1,487,472 for
                                                         $1,000
has generally stabilized over the past year.             higher than $850,000 in the prior year quarter the third quarter, 12.4% higher than $1,323,462
                                                          $1,000
                                                           $800
Price indicators show gains over prior year              and 1.7% above $899,000 in the prior quarter. in the same period a year ago and 3.8% higher
                                                           $800
                                                          $600
                                                           $600
                                             Visit our   website
                                                          $400
                                                           $400
                                                                   to browse listings and learn more about market trends              prudentialelliman.com
                                                           $200
3Q 10 MANhAttAN MArket overvIew                           Prudential douglas elliMan real estate




than $1,432,712 in the prior quarter reaching
its second highest level in two years. Price per
square foot was $1,095 in the third quarter, the
                                                             Co-oP market                                                     the past seven years had pressed co-op sales
                                                                                                                              market share as low as 34.6%. There was an
                                                             Number of sales jumped as                                        unprecedented shift in the mix of apartment
fourth consecutive quarter above the $1,000                                                                                   sales by bedroom causing a spike in the overall
per square foot threshold since falling to $996              inventory rose                                                   price indicators in the third quarter.
per square foot in the prior year quarter. Price             Listing inventory edged higher as sales surged
per square foot was 4.3% higher than $1,051 in                 QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN                  Price indicators rose as larger units gained
                                                             There were 4,065 listings at the end of the third
the prior quarter. When parsing out the market                  $2,000,000                                                market share Studio apartment market share
                                                             quarter, 5.9% more than 3,840 listings in the
                                                               QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN
by number of bedrooms, median sales price                       $1,800,000                                                sales fell by half to 12% from 24% in the prior
                                                             same period
                                                                $2,000,000 last year and 3% higher than 3,948
increased in the 3-bedroom and 4-bedroom                        $1,600,000
                                                                $1,800,000the prior quarter. There were 1,320             year quarter and from 16% in the prior quarter.
                                                             listings in
markets and fell in the three smaller size
                                                             sales in the third quarter, 32.7% more than 995 The first time buyer tax credit in 2009 was a key
                                                                $1,400,000
                                                                $1,600,000
categories reflecting not only a skew towards                   $1,200,000
                                                             sales in the same period last year and 9.7% higher driver in the elevated market share of smaller
                                                                $1,400,000
larger apartments, but the performance of those                 $1,000,000
                                                                $1,200,000
                                                             than 1,203 sales in the prior quarter. The surge apartments last year. The entry-level market
                                                                  $800,000
market segments by price.                                       $1,000,000
                                                             in sales likely incentivized more sellers to bring also tends to be the first segment to drop out
                                                                  $600,000
                                                                  $800,000
Days on market and listing discount lower                    their properties00 the market to take advantage of the market during economic weakness and
                                                                  $400,000
                                                                  $600,000      to       01           02        03     04      05      06         07        08         09          10
than last year’s result The number of days it                of improved conditions01
                                                                  $400,000                causing02    listing inventory the first segment to07    return. It has now been a
                                                                               00                               03     04      05      06                   08         09Re-sale 10
takes to sell a property from the last time the                NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE
                                                             to rise. Third quarter co-op listing inventory year since sales activity began to return to levels
                                                                                                                                               New Developement

list price was changed, if ever, was 125 days or               $2,000,000
                                                             represented 50% of total apartment inventory, post-Lehman thatNew Developement consistent with
                                                               NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE                                  were more                Re-sale 50%

42 days faster than the same period a year ago               the first time in nearly four years that parity was historic norms. The market share of 2-bedroom
                                                               $2,000,000
                                                               $1,600,000
                                                                                                                                                                                  50%
                                                                                                                                                                                  40%
                                                                                     Median Sales Price
when days on market was 167. Days on market                  reached excluding condo shadow inventory. apartments, the second largest segment of40%                                the
                                                               $1,600,000
was nearly three weeks longer than the 105                     $1,200,000            Median Sales Price                                                                           30%
                                                             Co-op sales comprised 49.6% of apartment co-op market after 1-bedrooms, surged 11% to
days in the prior quarter which was a recent low               $1,200,000                                                                                                         30%
                                                             sales in the quarter, the second highest amount 37% market share from 26% in the prior 20%
                                                                 $800,000                                                                                                         year
watermark. The contraction of marketing time
                                                             in two years. Over the last twenty years, co-op quarter and 7% from 30% in the prior quarter.
                                                                 $800,000                                                                                                         20%
was reflective of the increase in sales activity                 $400,000                                                                                                         10%
                                                             sales averaged 57.6% of all apartment sales per This pronounced Share New Development (Units)
                                                                                                                                        Market
                                                                                                                                                shift caused all co-op price
and decline in listing inventory over the past                   $400,000                                                                                                         10%
                                                             quarter. $0 condo 09 development boom of 1Q 10
                                                                        The       3Q new                  4Q 09           indicators to Market Share New Development 10The median
                                                                                                                                        show10
                                                                                                                                           2Q significant gains. 3Q
                                                                                                                                                                     (Units)      0%
year. Listing discount—the percentage difference
                                                                    $0                                                                                                                      0%
between the list price at time of contract to the                            3Q 09
                                                              AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP
                                                                                              4Q 09                          1Q 10
                                                                                                                           Downtown
                                                                                                                                                    2Q 10
                                                                                                                                               East Side           West Side
                                                                                                                                                                            3Q 10
                                                                                                                                                                                        Uptown
contract date—fell to 5.8% from 7.6% in the prior             $1,200
                                                              AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP                              Downtown            East Side           West Side            Uptown
year quarter and down from from 9.1% in the
                                                              $1,200
                                                              $1,000
prior quarter. The decline in both indicators over
the past year correlated with the increase in the             $1,000
                                                               $800
number of sales suggests that sellers who price                $800
                                                               $600
properties closer to market value are more likely              $600
                                                               $400
to sell.
                                                               $400
                                                               $200
Seasonality returns After a two-year period of
                                                                 $0
                                                               $200
economic turmoil, the housing market is beginning                                3Q 09               4Q 09                    1Q 10                        2Q 10                    3Q 10
                                                                  $0
to show signs that seasonality is returning. The                           3Q 09            4Q 09
                                                              LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP
                                                                                                                              1Q 10                        2Q 10                    3Q 10

third quarter was an extension of the second                  20%                                                                                                                           200
                                                               LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP
quarter “spring” market characterized by sales and
                                                              20%                                                                                                                           200
price stabilization. In 2009, the “spring” market             16%                                                                                                                           175
was delayed by three months as the economic                   16%                                                                                                                           175
                                                              12%                                                                                                                           150
challenges unfolded and the comparison against
                                                              12%                                                                                                                           150
last year’s delayed “spring market” still show                 8%
                                                                                                                                                                   Days On Market
                                                                                                                                                                                            125
gains. Low mortgage rates, favorable exchange                  8%                                                                                                                           125
                                                               4%       Listing Discount                                                                           Days On Market           100
rates for international purchasers and prices well
                                                               4%                                                                                                                           100
below peak levels are driving demand, while high               0%       Listing Discount
                                                                              3Q 09              4Q 09                    1Q 10                  2Q 10                    3Q 10             75
unemployment, shadow inventory and tight credit               0%        3Q 09             4Q 09                           1Q 10                  2Q 10                     3Q 10            75
continue to temper improvement.                               AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO                              Downtown            East Side           West Side            Uptown
                                                              $2,500
                                                              AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO                              Downtown            East Side           West Side            Uptown
                                                             $2,500
 CO-Op Market Matrix                       Current Qtr      %$2,000
                                                             Chg             Prior Qtr      % Chg        Prior Year Qtr           CO-Op apartMent Mix % of Total Median Price
 Average Sales Price                       $1,251,959        12.5%
                                                              $2,000      $1,113,173        24.5%           $1,005,744                Studio                        12%               $363,308
                                                              $1,500
 Average Price per Square Foot                  $990           5%                 $943      14.3%                $866
 Median Sales Price                          $777,500         $1,500
                                                             11.5%           $697,501       23.4%            $630,000                 1 bedroom                     38%               $577,655
                                                              $1,000
 Number of Sales                                1,320         9.7%
                                                              $1,000
                                                                                 1,203      32.7%                  995                2 bedroom                     37%             $1,324,502
                                                                $500
 Days on Market (from Last List Date)             106        15.2%                   92     -20.9%                 134
                                                                                                                                      3 bedroom                     10%             $2,950,263
 Listing Discount (from Last List Price)         2.8%           $500               7.3%                         12.5%
                                                                  $0             3Q 09               4Q 09                    1Q 10                        2Q 10                    3Q 10
 Listing Inventory                              4,065          3%                3,948        5.9%               3,840                4+ bedroom                      3%            $8,040,706
                                                                  $0       3Q 09            4Q 09                             1Q 10                        2Q 10                    3Q 10
                                                              LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO
                                                              15%
                                                              LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO                                                                                   300

prudentialelliman.com                       Visit our
                                                               15%
                                                         website to
                                                              12%     browse listings and learn more about market trends
                                                                                                                              Days On Market
                                                                                                                                                                                            300
                                                                                                                                                                                            240
                                                              12%                                                                                                                           240
                                                               9%                                                                                                                           180
$400,000
   $600,000        00            01          02           03         04           05         06            07         08           09           10
  $400,000
 NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE05
            00     01     02     03      04                                                  06          07        08
                                                                                                       New Developement            09Re-sale    10

 $2,000,000                                   Prudential douglas elliMan real estate  MANhAttAN MArket overvIew
 NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE          New Developement Re-sale 50%
                                                                                                                                                                                           3Q 10
 $2,000,000                                                                                                                                    50%
 $1,600,000                                                                                                                                    40%
                             Median Sales Price



                                                                           CoNDo market
 $1,600,000                                                                                                                                    40%
 $1,200,000                  Median Sales Price                                                                                                30%   up 8.9% from $1,579,438 in the same period last
sales price of a Manhattan co-op jumped 23.4%
  $1,200,000                                                                                                  30%
                                                                                                              20%                                    year and increased 2.3% from $1,680,236 in the
to $800,000 from $630,000 in the prior year
    $777,500
                                                                                                                                                     prior quarter. Price per square foot reached
quarter and increased 11.5% from $697,501 in Modest rise in sales, modest
    $800,000                                                                                                  20%
                                                                                                              10%
    $400,000                                                         Market Share New Development (Units)                                            $1,199 in the third quarter, an 8.9% increase from
the prior quarter. Average sales price followed
    $400,000
          $0
the same patter rising 24.5% to $1,251,959 from 1Q 10
                       3Q 09          4Q 09
                                                       decline inMarket Share New Development 10
                                                                      inventory 3Q (Units) 10%
                                                                         2Q 10                                0%                                     $1,101 per square foot in the prior year quarter
                                                       Price indicators rose as 2-bedrooms gained                                                    and rose 5.7% from $1,134 in the prior quarter.
the prior year quarter result of 09
          $0           3Q 09          4Q $1,005,744   1Q 10              2Q 10                 3Q 10          0%
  AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP                                                                                                                    The average square footage for a condo in the
and increased 12.5% from $1,113,173 in the prior market share Median sales price of a Manhattan
                                                    Downtown        East Side         West Side           Uptown
 $1,200
  AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP                      condo wasEast Side
                                                                       $1,120,000, West Side higher than
                                                                                        10.3%                                                        third quarter was 1,428 for a new development
quarter. Price per square foot also showed Downtown                                                       Uptown
 $1,200                                                                                                                                              unit and 1,439 for a re-sale property, nearly
pronounced increases. The price per square $1,015,124 in the same period last year and 1.8%
 $1,000
                                                                                                                                                     the same result. Over the past five years, new
foot of a Manhattan co-op was $990 per square higher than $1,100,000 in the prior quarter. A key
 $1,000
   $800
                                                                                                                                                     development condos edged out re-sales for an
foot, up 14.3% from $866 per square foot in the factor in the overall increase in price indicators
   $800
   $600                                                                                                                                              average of 86 square feet.
prior quarter and up 5% from $943 in the prior was the shift in mix towards larger unit sales
   $600
   $400
quarter.                                               after the high concentration of first time buyers                                             Number of sales rose and inventory slipped
   $400
   $200                                                                                                                                              There were 1,341 sales in the third quarter,
Listing discount and days on market declined and smaller unit sales in 2009. This significant
      $0
   $200                                                                                                                                              8.6% more than the 1,235 sales of the prior year
Days on market3Q 09 third quarter averaged 106 shift is evident in2Qthe studio and 3Q 10
                    in the           4Q 09             1Q 10                     10                   2-bedroom
      $0                                               markets. Studio apartment sales comprised 6%                                                  quarter, but 13.7% less than the 1,553 sales of
days, nearly one 093Q month faster than 134 days in
                                     4Q 09
  LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP
                                                       1Q 10                  2Q 10                  3Q 10
                                                                                                                                                     the prior quarter. The condo market saw a more
the prior year quarter, but 2 weeks slower than in the third quarter from 12% in the same period
 20%
  LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP                                                                 200                                    modest gain in the number of sales over the past
the prior quarter average of 92 days, the lowest last year. Over the last ten years, studio sales
 20%                                                                                                          200                                    year than the co-op market did. Listing inventory,
average in five and half years. Listing discount have represented an average of 11% of total175
 16%                                                                                                           unit
                                                                                                                                                     exclusive of shadow inventory, declined 10.8%
fell to 2.8% from 12.5% in the same period last sales. 2-bedroom apartments jumped to a 175
 16%                                                                                                          40%
                                                                                                              150
 12%                                                                                                                                                 to 4,058 units, from 4,549 in the same period
year and from 7.3% in the prior quarter. The market share from 34% in the same period last
 12%
  8%
                                                                                                              150                                    a year ago and slipped 3.6% from 4,209 in the
surge in sales activity yet modest uptick in listing year, but still falling short Days On Market
                                                                                        of their 45% market   125
                                                                                                                                                     prior quarter. The monthly absorption rate is 9.1
  4%       was consistent with the year over year share average over the past On Market Average
inventoryListing Discount
  8%
                                                                                       Days  decade.          125
                                                                                                              100
                                                                                                                                                     months, below the 11.1 absorption rate during the
contraction in both quarterly indicators.              sales price was $1,719,296 in the third quarter,
  4%
 0%       Listing Discount
                3Q 09                     4Q 09                      1Q 10                     2Q 10
                                                                                                              100
                                                                                                                           3Q 10               75    prior year quarter and below the 9.4 average
 0%        3Q 09             4Q 09                                   1Q 10                     2Q 10                       3Q 10               75
                                                                                                                                                     monthly absorption rate for the prior decade.
 AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO                                      Downtown               East Side             West Side               Uptown
                                                                                                                                                     Days on market fell as listing discount
 $2,500
 AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO                                      Downtown               East Side             West Side               Uptown    expanded Despite the rise in the number of
 $2,500                                                                                                                                              sales and the decline in listing inventory, the
 $2,000
 $2,000                                                                                                                                              listing discount continues to expand contrary to
 $1,500
                                                                                                                                                     expectations. The listing discount was 8.8% in
 $1,500
 $1,000                                                                                                                                              the third quarter, higher than 3.6% in the same
 $1,000                                                                                                                                              period last year, but less than 10.5% in the prior
  $500
                                                                                                                                                     quarter. Days on market has seen significant
  $500
    $0             3Q 09                          4Q 09                    1Q 10                         2Q 10                     3Q 10             volatility over the past year, falling to 143 days
     $0       3Q 09            4Q 09                                       1Q 10                         2Q 10                     3Q 10             from 194 days in the prior year quarter and up
 LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO
                                                                                                                                                     from 115 days in the prior quarter. However this
 15%
 LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO                                                                                                   300
                                                                                                                                                     variation is due to the swings in market share
 15%
 12%                                                                                                                                           300
                                                                                                                                               240   between re-sale and new development sales
                                                                           Days On Market
 12%                                                                                                                                           240   over the past year. In the third quarter, days on
  9%                                                                                                                                           180
                                                                           Days On Market                                                            market for new development sales was 165 days
  9%                                                                                                                                           180
  6%                                                                                                                                           120   while days on market for re-sales was 118 days.
  6%                                                                                                                                           120
                                                                                                                                               60
  3%
                                      Listing Discount
  3%                                                                                                                                           60
                                                                                                                                               0
  0%          3Q 09                   Listing Discount
                                           4Q 09                     1Q 10                     2Q 10                       3Q 10
  0%                                                                                                                                           0
              3Q 09                       4Q 09                      1Q 10                     2Q 10                       3Q 10


 AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LUXURY                                             AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LOFT
 COndO Market Matrix
 AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LUXURY Current Qtr
 $2,500                                                                % Chg
                                                                           AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LOFT Prior Year Qtr
                                                                           $1,500   Prior Qtr % Chg                                                  COndO apartMent Mix % of Total Median Price
 Average Sales Price
 $2,200
 $2,500                           $1,719,296                            2.3%
                                                                           $1,500 $1,680,236   8.9%          $1,579,438                                  Studio                   6%        $455,000
                                                                              $1,300
 Average Price per Square Foot
 $1,900
 $2,200                                                   $1,199           5.7%               $1,134              8.9%                     $1,101
                                                                              $1,300
                                                                              $1,100 $1,100,000                                                          1 bedroom               33%         $680,191
 Median Sales Price                                  $1,120,000            1.8%                                  10.3%              $1,015,124
 $1,600
 $1,900
 Number of Sales                                           1,341       -13.7% $900
                                                                            $1,100                1,553           8.6%                       1,235       2 bedroom               40%       $1,310,000
 $1,600
 $1,300
 Days on Market (from Last List Date)                          143        24.3%                    115           -26.3%                        194
 $1,000
 $1,300 3Q 09                                                                     $900
                                                                                  $700                                                                   3 bedroom               16%       $2,650,000
 Listing Discount (from Last List Price) 2Q 10
                      4Q 09     1Q 10                       8.8%
                                                             3Q 10                             10.5%4Q 09
                                                                                            3Q 09                    1Q 10         2Q 10  3.6%
                                                                                                                                            3Q 10
 $1,000 3Q 09
 Listing Inventory                                         4,058          -3.6% $700            4,2094Q 09
                                                                                                         -10.8% 10                       4,549           4+ bedroom               5%       $6,000,000
                      4Q 09     1Q 10    2Q 10               3Q 10                          3Q 09             1Q                   2Q 10    3Q 10




                                                               Visit our website to browse listings and learn more about market trends                            prudentialelliman.com
4%                                                                       40%                                                                                                                    100
                        Listing Discount

                                                                                   30%
          0%                  3Q 09                          4Q 09                           1Q 10        2Q 10        3Q 10     75
        3Q 10 MANhAttAN MArket overvIew
                                    20%
                                                                                              Prudential douglas elliMan real estate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�P
          AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO                                                        Downtown                       East Side                       West Side                          Uptown
                                                                                   10%                                                                                                                                                       $2,000,000
         $2,500             Market Share New Development (Units)



        Luxury market
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Median Sales Price
       $2,000
   1Q 10                         2Q 10                        3Q 10                0%                third quarter, the second lowest quarter since                                                                               by a$1,600,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         high concentration of first time buyers
                                                                                                     the Lehman tipping point at the end of 2008.                                                                                 whereas the high-end of the housing market saw
         $1,500
 Downtown                 East Side                West Side                 Uptown                                                                                                                                               pronounced improvement in the first quarter of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       $1,200,000
        Price indicators rose as high-end
         $1,000
                                                                                                    all price indicators showed increases Median
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2010 and continued through the third quarter.
                                                                                                    sales price for a Manhattan luxury property was
        activity stabilized                                                                         $4,393,749 in the third quarter, 12.5% higher than
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         $800,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Over the last decade, a luxury property took an
            $500
      Market share of luxury properties consistent                                                  $3,905,000 in the same period last year and                                                                                   average of 19 days longer than the overall market
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         $400,000
      with $0          3Q average Luxury 09apartments
             historical 09                   4Q
                                                                                                    7.3% higher than $4,093,365 in the 3Q 10 quarter.
                                                                                                   1Q 10               2Q 10
                                                                                                                                          prior                                                                                   to sell. In the first quarter of 2010, the disparity
      began at $3,060,000 in the third quarter,                                                     Average sales price was $5,636,600, up 15.5%                                                                                  was 70 days longer for luxury properties falling
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                $0
        LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO                                                                                                                                                                                                      1Q 09            2Q 09                                                                              3
      accounting for 10% of the unit sales and 37.9% of                                             from $4,881,561 in the same period last year and                                                                              to 11 days in the third quarter as sales volume
         15%                                                                                                                                     300
      the total dollar volume, consistent with the 36.9%                                            9% higher than $5,169,161 in the prior quarter.                                                                               expanded. However, listing discount expanded
      ten year average. Listing inventory fell 31.2% to
        12%                                                                                                                                      240
                                                                                                    Price per square foot followed the same pattern                                                                               over the same period to 7.3% from 4.1% in the
    1Q 10               2Q 10                  3Q 10                                               Days On Market
      1,112 units, and fell 14.7% from 1,304 units in the                                           rising 14.6% to $1,897 from $1,655 in the prior year                                                                          same period last year and up from 6.4% in the
          9%                                                                                                                                     180
      prior quarter. Listing inventory in the luxury                                                quarter and up 2.9% from $1,843 in the prior                                                                                  prior quarter, inferring that sellers became more
      market represented 13.7% of total apartment
          6%                                         200
                                                                                                    quarter.
                                                                                                                                                 120                                                                              confident about setting list prices higher as
      inventory, the smallest market share in over two                                               60
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  demand improved.
          3%                                         175     Listing discount and days on market declined
      years, reflective of the surge inDiscount over the
                                    Listing activity                                                                                                                                                                              Note: This sub-category is the analysis of the top ten percent of all
                                                             Days on market was 136 days, 45 days 0faster
          0%         quarters. New development150 1Q 10
      prior several3Q 09                 4Q 09        market             2Q 10           3Q 10                                                                                                                                    co-op and condo sales. The data is also contained within the co-op
                                                             than 181 days during the same period last year.                                                                                                                      and condo markets presented.
      share represented 21.4% of all luxury sales in the
                                 Days On Market
                                                     125     The 2009 housing market was characterized
                                                                                  100
          AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LUXURY                                                             Luxury Market Matrix
                                                                                                        AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LOFT                                                   Current Qtr                           % Chg                        Prior Qtr                           % Chg                  Prior Year Qtr
1Q 10     $2,500             2Q 10                          3Q 10                 75                   Average Sales Price
                                                                                                        $1,500                                                                            $5,636,600                              9%                       $5,169,161                           15.5%                     $4,881,561
          $2,200                                                                                       Average Price per Square Foot                                                          $1,897                            2.9%                                $1,843                      14.6%                         $1,655
                                                                                                        $1,300
 Downtown
          $1,900          East Side                West Side                 Uptown                    Median Sales Price                                                                 $4,393,749                            7.3%                      $4,093,365                            12.5%                     $3,905,000
                                                                                                        $1,100
                                                                                                       Number of Sales                                                                           266                           -3.6%                                      276                   19.3%                            223
          $1,600
                                                                                                       Days on Market (from Last List Date)                                                       136                          -6.8%                                       146                 -24.9%                             181
          $1,300                                                                                          $900
                                                                                                       Listing Discount (from Last List Price)                                                  7.3%                                                                   6.4%                                                     4.1%
          $1,000         3Q 09         4Q 09          1Q 10          2Q 10          3Q 10                 $700 3Q 09
                                                                                                       Listing Inventory    4Q 09     1Q 10                                             2Q 10   1,112
                                                                                                                                                                                                 3Q 10                         -14.7%                                  1,304                   -31.2%                           1,616




        Loft market
                                                                                                     quarter of 2009. Price per square foot was                                                                                   Listing discount and days on market fell The
                                                                                                     $1,091 in the third quarter, up 6.2% from $1,027 in                                                                          listing discount or percent spread between
                                                                                                     the same period last year, but 4.7% below $1,145                                                                             the contract price at time of sale and the sales
        Number of sales jumped as10
    1Q 10           2Q 10      3Q
                                                                                                     in the prior quarter.                                                                                                        price was 5.6% down from 7.7% in the prior year
        inventory fell                                                                               inventory fell as number of sales surged There
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  quarter and nominally higher than 5.4% in the
                                                                                   300                                                                                                                                            prior quarter. Days on market fell to 104 days in
       Price indicators above prior year levels The                                                  were 190 loft sales in the third quarter, 53.2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  the third quarter, more than a month faster than
       median sales price of a Manhattan loft was
                                                240                                                  higher than 124 sales in the same period last year,
     Days On Market                                                                                                                                                                                                               the 137 day average during the same period last
       $1,660,000, 10.7% higher than $1,500,000                                                      but 27.5% less than 262 sales in the prior quarter.
                                                180                                                                                                                                                                               year, but 24 days longer than 80 days in the prior
       in the same period last year and 5.7% above                                                   The surge in loft sales last quarter appeared to                                                                             quarter. These patterns are consistent with the
                                                120
       $1,570,000 in the prior quarter. Average sales                                                be an anomaly given the 182 and 180 sale totals                                                                              decline in listing inventory as buyers have fewer
       price was $1,981,389 in the third quarter, 11.4%
                                                60                                                   respectively in the preceding two quarters. With                                                                             choices and sellers were priced closer to market
       higher than $1,778,140 in the prior year quarter,
                                                0
                                                                                                     the surge in sales, listing inventory fell 16.4% to 521                                                                      levels.
1Q 10               2Q 10           3Q 10
       but 3.7% below $2,057,776 in the prior quarter,                                               units from 623 units in the same period last year                                                                            Note: This sub-category is the analysis of all co-op and condo loft
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  sales available. The data is also contained within the co-op and
       the highest average sales price since the first                                               and 4.9% from 548 units in the prior quarter.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  condo markets presented.

          AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LOFT                                                               LOft Market Matrix                                                                  Current Qtr                         % Chg                         Prior Qtr                          % Chg                  Prior Year Qtr
          $1,500                                                                                       Average Sales Price                                                                  $1,981,389                          -3.7%                      $2,057,776                            11.4%                     $1,778,140
                                                                                                       Average Price per Square Foot                                                            $1,091                          -4.7%                                $1,145                       6.2%                         $1,027
          $1,300
                                                                                                       Median Sales Price                                                                  $1,660,000                            5.7%                      $1,570,000                            10.7%                    $1,500,000
          $1,100                                                                                       Number of Sales                                                                             190                         -27.5%                                     262                    53.2%                            124
                                                                                                       Days on Market (from Last List Date)                                                        104                           30%                                         80                 -24.1%                            137
            $900
                                                                                                       Listing Discount (from Last List Price)                                                   5.6%                                                                   5.4%                                                     7.7%
            $700         3Q 09         4Q 09          1Q 10          2Q 10          3Q 10              Listing Inventory                                                                           521                           -4.9%                                    548                     -16.4%                          623


        ©2010 Prudential Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel Inc. All worldwide rights reserved.      eaStSiDe 980 Madison Ave. 212.650.4800 • 575 Madison Ave. 212.891.7000 MiDtowN 425 East 58th St. 212.832.1666
        Prudential douglas elliMan                        Miller saMuel inc.                        205 East 42nd St. 212.692.6111 • 485 Madison Ave. 212.350.8500 weStSiDe 1995 Broadway 212.362.9600 • 2142 Broadway
        real estate                                       real estate aPPraisers
                                                                                                    212.769.2004 • 2169 Frederick Douglass Blvd. 212.865.1100 DowNtowN 90 Hudson St. 212.965.6000 • 26 West 17 St.
        575 Madison Avenue                                21 west 38th Street
        New York, NY 10022                                New York, NY 10018                        212.645.4040 • 137 Waverly Pl. 212.206.2800 • 51 East 10 St. 212.995.5357 • 690 Washington St. 212.352.5252 BrookLyN 156
        212.891.7000                                      212.768.8100                              Montague St. 718.780.8100 • 189 Court St. 718.522.2929 • 299 Bedford Ave. 718.486.4400 • 154 Seventh Ave. 718.840.2000
        prudentialelliman.com                             millersamuel.com
                                                                                                    664 Fulton Street 718.780.8100 reNtaL 485 Madison Ave. 212.350.8500 reLoCatioN 575 Madison Ave. 212.891.HOME
        For more information or electronic copies of this report please visit
        prudentialelliman.com/marketreports. Email report author Jonathan Miller                     ©2010. An Independently owned and operated member of the Prudential Real Estate Affiliates, Inc.           is a service mark of Prudential Insurance Company of America        Equal Housing Opportunity. All material presented herein is intended
        at jmiller@millersamuel.com with questions or comments.                                      for information purposes only. While this information is believed to be correct, it is represented subject to errors, omissions, changes or withdrawal without notice. All property outlines and square footage in property listings are approximate.

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Manhattan Third Quarter 2010 Real Estate Market Report

  • 1. Manhattan Market Overview 3Q 10 A Quarterly Survey of Manhattan Co-op and Condo Sales Prepared by Miller Samuel Inc. Appraisal and consulting services covering the New York City metropolitan area Price indicators rise, partly due to Manhattan Market Matrix Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year Qtr shift toward larger sales Average Sales Price $1,487,472 3.8% $1,432,712 12.4% $1,323,462 Average Price per Square Foot $1,095 4.3% $1,051 10% $996 Number of sales exceed same period last Median Sales Price $914,000 1.7% $899,000 7.5% $850,000 year as inventory slips After three consecutive New Development $1,170,988 -16.1% $1,395,000 1.8% $1,150,000 quarters of double digit declines in year over Re-Sale $877,200 9.7% $800,000 17% $750,000 year inventory levels, the pace of the declines Number of Sales 2,661 -3.4% 2,756 19.3% 2,230 appears to be easing. There were 8,123 listings at Days on Market (from Last List Date) 125 18.8% 105 -25.5% 167 the end of the third quarter, 3.2% less than 8,389 Listing Discount (from Last List Price) 5.8% 9.1% 7.6% listings in the prior year quarter and essentially Listing Inventory 8,123 -0.4% 8,157 -3.2% 8,389 unchanged from the 8,157 listings in the prior quarter. There were 2,661 sales in the third QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN quarter, 19.3% above 2,230 sales in the prior QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN $2,000,000 year quarter, but 3.4% less than 2,756 sales in the $2,000,000 $1,800,000 prior quarter. The same period a year ago had $1,800,000 $1,600,000 represented a sharp increase in activity after the $1,600,000 $1,400,000 post-Lehman lull in the first half of 2009 buoyed $1,400,000 $1,200,000 by a surging stock market. With the increase $1,200,000 $1,000,000 in the number of sales came a shift in the mix $1,000,000 $800,000 of apartment sizes that sold during the period. $800,000 $600,000 There was a sharp decline in studio sales to 9% $600,000 $400,000 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 market share from 17% in the same period last $400,000 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 year, more consistent with the 5-year average NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE New Developement Re-sale NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE $2,000,000 New Developement Re-sale 50% of 16%. However, 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom $2,000,000 50% apartments more than made up for the decline, $1,600,000 40% Median Sales Price rising 10% in total market share. Given the shift to $1,600,000 Median Sales Price 40% 2-bedroom apartments and drop in studio sales, $1,200,000 30% $1,200,000 30% the overall price indicators were skewed higher. $800,000 20% As a result, individual housing prices would be $800,000 20% best characterized as stable. New development $400,000 10% Market Share New Development (Units) $400,000 10% sales comprised a 21.6% market share of total unit $0 Market Share New Development (Units) 0% 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 sales, down from 22.2% in the same period last $0 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 0% year and down from 22.6% in the prior quarter. AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP Downtown East Side West Side Uptown After falling from a peak of 57.6% in the second AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP and prior quarters The median sales price of Downtown other price indicators Side $1,200 The East Side West followed a similar Uptown quarter of 2006, new development market share $1,200 a Manhattan apartment was $914,000, 7.5% pattern. Average sales price was $1,487,472 for $1,000 has generally stabilized over the past year. higher than $850,000 in the prior year quarter the third quarter, 12.4% higher than $1,323,462 $1,000 $800 Price indicators show gains over prior year and 1.7% above $899,000 in the prior quarter. in the same period a year ago and 3.8% higher $800 $600 $600 Visit our website $400 $400 to browse listings and learn more about market trends prudentialelliman.com $200
  • 2. 3Q 10 MANhAttAN MArket overvIew  Prudential douglas elliMan real estate than $1,432,712 in the prior quarter reaching its second highest level in two years. Price per square foot was $1,095 in the third quarter, the Co-oP market the past seven years had pressed co-op sales market share as low as 34.6%. There was an Number of sales jumped as unprecedented shift in the mix of apartment fourth consecutive quarter above the $1,000 sales by bedroom causing a spike in the overall per square foot threshold since falling to $996 inventory rose price indicators in the third quarter. per square foot in the prior year quarter. Price Listing inventory edged higher as sales surged per square foot was 4.3% higher than $1,051 in QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN Price indicators rose as larger units gained There were 4,065 listings at the end of the third the prior quarter. When parsing out the market $2,000,000 market share Studio apartment market share quarter, 5.9% more than 3,840 listings in the QUARTERLY�AVERAGE�SALES�PRICE�/�MANHATTAN by number of bedrooms, median sales price $1,800,000 sales fell by half to 12% from 24% in the prior same period $2,000,000 last year and 3% higher than 3,948 increased in the 3-bedroom and 4-bedroom $1,600,000 $1,800,000the prior quarter. There were 1,320 year quarter and from 16% in the prior quarter. listings in markets and fell in the three smaller size sales in the third quarter, 32.7% more than 995 The first time buyer tax credit in 2009 was a key $1,400,000 $1,600,000 categories reflecting not only a skew towards $1,200,000 sales in the same period last year and 9.7% higher driver in the elevated market share of smaller $1,400,000 larger apartments, but the performance of those $1,000,000 $1,200,000 than 1,203 sales in the prior quarter. The surge apartments last year. The entry-level market $800,000 market segments by price. $1,000,000 in sales likely incentivized more sellers to bring also tends to be the first segment to drop out $600,000 $800,000 Days on market and listing discount lower their properties00 the market to take advantage of the market during economic weakness and $400,000 $600,000 to 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 than last year’s result The number of days it of improved conditions01 $400,000 causing02 listing inventory the first segment to07 return. It has now been a 00 03 04 05 06 08 09Re-sale 10 takes to sell a property from the last time the NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE to rise. Third quarter co-op listing inventory year since sales activity began to return to levels New Developement list price was changed, if ever, was 125 days or $2,000,000 represented 50% of total apartment inventory, post-Lehman thatNew Developement consistent with NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE were more Re-sale 50% 42 days faster than the same period a year ago the first time in nearly four years that parity was historic norms. The market share of 2-bedroom $2,000,000 $1,600,000 50% 40% Median Sales Price when days on market was 167. Days on market reached excluding condo shadow inventory. apartments, the second largest segment of40% the $1,600,000 was nearly three weeks longer than the 105 $1,200,000 Median Sales Price 30% Co-op sales comprised 49.6% of apartment co-op market after 1-bedrooms, surged 11% to days in the prior quarter which was a recent low $1,200,000 30% sales in the quarter, the second highest amount 37% market share from 26% in the prior 20% $800,000 year watermark. The contraction of marketing time in two years. Over the last twenty years, co-op quarter and 7% from 30% in the prior quarter. $800,000 20% was reflective of the increase in sales activity $400,000 10% sales averaged 57.6% of all apartment sales per This pronounced Share New Development (Units) Market shift caused all co-op price and decline in listing inventory over the past $400,000 10% quarter. $0 condo 09 development boom of 1Q 10 The 3Q new 4Q 09 indicators to Market Share New Development 10The median show10 2Q significant gains. 3Q (Units) 0% year. Listing discount—the percentage difference $0 0% between the list price at time of contract to the 3Q 09 AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP 4Q 09 1Q 10 Downtown 2Q 10 East Side West Side 3Q 10 Uptown contract date—fell to 5.8% from 7.6% in the prior $1,200 AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP Downtown East Side West Side Uptown year quarter and down from from 9.1% in the $1,200 $1,000 prior quarter. The decline in both indicators over the past year correlated with the increase in the $1,000 $800 number of sales suggests that sellers who price $800 $600 properties closer to market value are more likely $600 $400 to sell. $400 $200 Seasonality returns After a two-year period of $0 $200 economic turmoil, the housing market is beginning 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 $0 to show signs that seasonality is returning. The 3Q 09 4Q 09 LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 third quarter was an extension of the second 20% 200 LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP quarter “spring” market characterized by sales and 20% 200 price stabilization. In 2009, the “spring” market 16% 175 was delayed by three months as the economic 16% 175 12% 150 challenges unfolded and the comparison against 12% 150 last year’s delayed “spring market” still show 8% Days On Market 125 gains. Low mortgage rates, favorable exchange 8% 125 4% Listing Discount Days On Market 100 rates for international purchasers and prices well 4% 100 below peak levels are driving demand, while high 0% Listing Discount 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 75 unemployment, shadow inventory and tight credit 0% 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 75 continue to temper improvement. AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO Downtown East Side West Side Uptown $2,500 AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO Downtown East Side West Side Uptown $2,500 CO-Op Market Matrix Current Qtr %$2,000 Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year Qtr CO-Op apartMent Mix % of Total Median Price Average Sales Price $1,251,959 12.5% $2,000 $1,113,173 24.5% $1,005,744 Studio 12% $363,308 $1,500 Average Price per Square Foot $990 5% $943 14.3% $866 Median Sales Price $777,500 $1,500 11.5% $697,501 23.4% $630,000 1 bedroom 38% $577,655 $1,000 Number of Sales 1,320 9.7% $1,000 1,203 32.7% 995 2 bedroom 37% $1,324,502 $500 Days on Market (from Last List Date) 106 15.2% 92 -20.9% 134 3 bedroom 10% $2,950,263 Listing Discount (from Last List Price) 2.8% $500 7.3% 12.5% $0 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 Listing Inventory 4,065 3% 3,948 5.9% 3,840 4+ bedroom 3% $8,040,706 $0 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO 15% LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO 300 prudentialelliman.com Visit our 15% website to 12% browse listings and learn more about market trends Days On Market 300 240 12% 240 9% 180
  • 3. $400,000 $600,000 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 $400,000 NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE05 00 01 02 03 04 06 07 08 New Developement 09Re-sale 10 $2,000,000 Prudential douglas elliMan real estate  MANhAttAN MArket overvIew NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�PRICE New Developement Re-sale 50% 3Q 10 $2,000,000 50% $1,600,000 40% Median Sales Price CoNDo market $1,600,000 40% $1,200,000 Median Sales Price 30% up 8.9% from $1,579,438 in the same period last sales price of a Manhattan co-op jumped 23.4% $1,200,000 30% 20% year and increased 2.3% from $1,680,236 in the to $800,000 from $630,000 in the prior year $777,500 prior quarter. Price per square foot reached quarter and increased 11.5% from $697,501 in Modest rise in sales, modest $800,000 20% 10% $400,000 Market Share New Development (Units) $1,199 in the third quarter, an 8.9% increase from the prior quarter. Average sales price followed $400,000 $0 the same patter rising 24.5% to $1,251,959 from 1Q 10 3Q 09 4Q 09 decline inMarket Share New Development 10 inventory 3Q (Units) 10% 2Q 10 0% $1,101 per square foot in the prior year quarter Price indicators rose as 2-bedrooms gained and rose 5.7% from $1,134 in the prior quarter. the prior year quarter result of 09 $0 3Q 09 4Q $1,005,744 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 0% AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP The average square footage for a condo in the and increased 12.5% from $1,113,173 in the prior market share Median sales price of a Manhattan Downtown East Side West Side Uptown $1,200 AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CO�OP condo wasEast Side $1,120,000, West Side higher than 10.3% third quarter was 1,428 for a new development quarter. Price per square foot also showed Downtown Uptown $1,200 unit and 1,439 for a re-sale property, nearly pronounced increases. The price per square $1,015,124 in the same period last year and 1.8% $1,000 the same result. Over the past five years, new foot of a Manhattan co-op was $990 per square higher than $1,100,000 in the prior quarter. A key $1,000 $800 development condos edged out re-sales for an foot, up 14.3% from $866 per square foot in the factor in the overall increase in price indicators $800 $600 average of 86 square feet. prior quarter and up 5% from $943 in the prior was the shift in mix towards larger unit sales $600 $400 quarter. after the high concentration of first time buyers Number of sales rose and inventory slipped $400 $200 There were 1,341 sales in the third quarter, Listing discount and days on market declined and smaller unit sales in 2009. This significant $0 $200 8.6% more than the 1,235 sales of the prior year Days on market3Q 09 third quarter averaged 106 shift is evident in2Qthe studio and 3Q 10 in the 4Q 09 1Q 10 10 2-bedroom $0 markets. Studio apartment sales comprised 6% quarter, but 13.7% less than the 1,553 sales of days, nearly one 093Q month faster than 134 days in 4Q 09 LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 the prior quarter. The condo market saw a more the prior year quarter, but 2 weeks slower than in the third quarter from 12% in the same period 20% LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CO�OP 200 modest gain in the number of sales over the past the prior quarter average of 92 days, the lowest last year. Over the last ten years, studio sales 20% 200 year than the co-op market did. Listing inventory, average in five and half years. Listing discount have represented an average of 11% of total175 16% unit exclusive of shadow inventory, declined 10.8% fell to 2.8% from 12.5% in the same period last sales. 2-bedroom apartments jumped to a 175 16% 40% 150 12% to 4,058 units, from 4,549 in the same period year and from 7.3% in the prior quarter. The market share from 34% in the same period last 12% 8% 150 a year ago and slipped 3.6% from 4,209 in the surge in sales activity yet modest uptick in listing year, but still falling short Days On Market of their 45% market 125 prior quarter. The monthly absorption rate is 9.1 4% was consistent with the year over year share average over the past On Market Average inventoryListing Discount 8% Days decade. 125 100 months, below the 11.1 absorption rate during the contraction in both quarterly indicators. sales price was $1,719,296 in the third quarter, 4% 0% Listing Discount 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 100 3Q 10 75 prior year quarter and below the 9.4 average 0% 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 75 monthly absorption rate for the prior decade. AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO Downtown East Side West Side Uptown Days on market fell as listing discount $2,500 AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO Downtown East Side West Side Uptown expanded Despite the rise in the number of $2,500 sales and the decline in listing inventory, the $2,000 $2,000 listing discount continues to expand contrary to $1,500 expectations. The listing discount was 8.8% in $1,500 $1,000 the third quarter, higher than 3.6% in the same $1,000 period last year, but less than 10.5% in the prior $500 quarter. Days on market has seen significant $500 $0 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 volatility over the past year, falling to 143 days $0 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 from 194 days in the prior year quarter and up LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO from 115 days in the prior quarter. However this 15% LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO 300 variation is due to the swings in market share 15% 12% 300 240 between re-sale and new development sales Days On Market 12% 240 over the past year. In the third quarter, days on 9% 180 Days On Market market for new development sales was 165 days 9% 180 6% 120 while days on market for re-sales was 118 days. 6% 120 60 3% Listing Discount 3% 60 0 0% 3Q 09 Listing Discount 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 0% 0 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LUXURY AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LOFT COndO Market Matrix AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LUXURY Current Qtr $2,500 % Chg AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LOFT Prior Year Qtr $1,500 Prior Qtr % Chg COndO apartMent Mix % of Total Median Price Average Sales Price $2,200 $2,500 $1,719,296 2.3% $1,500 $1,680,236 8.9% $1,579,438 Studio 6% $455,000 $1,300 Average Price per Square Foot $1,900 $2,200 $1,199 5.7% $1,134 8.9% $1,101 $1,300 $1,100 $1,100,000 1 bedroom 33% $680,191 Median Sales Price $1,120,000 1.8% 10.3% $1,015,124 $1,600 $1,900 Number of Sales 1,341 -13.7% $900 $1,100 1,553 8.6% 1,235 2 bedroom 40% $1,310,000 $1,600 $1,300 Days on Market (from Last List Date) 143 24.3% 115 -26.3% 194 $1,000 $1,300 3Q 09 $900 $700 3 bedroom 16% $2,650,000 Listing Discount (from Last List Price) 2Q 10 4Q 09 1Q 10 8.8% 3Q 10 10.5%4Q 09 3Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3.6% 3Q 10 $1,000 3Q 09 Listing Inventory 4,058 -3.6% $700 4,2094Q 09 -10.8% 10 4,549 4+ bedroom 5% $6,000,000 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 3Q 09 1Q 2Q 10 3Q 10 Visit our website to browse listings and learn more about market trends prudentialelliman.com
  • 4. 4% 40% 100 Listing Discount 30% 0% 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 75 3Q 10 MANhAttAN MArket overvIew 20%  Prudential douglas elliMan real estate NEW�DEVELOPMENT�MARKET�SHARE��MEDIAN�SALES�P AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�CONDO Downtown East Side West Side Uptown 10% $2,000,000 $2,500 Market Share New Development (Units) Luxury market Median Sales Price $2,000 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 0% third quarter, the second lowest quarter since by a$1,600,000 high concentration of first time buyers the Lehman tipping point at the end of 2008. whereas the high-end of the housing market saw $1,500 Downtown East Side West Side Uptown pronounced improvement in the first quarter of $1,200,000 Price indicators rose as high-end $1,000 all price indicators showed increases Median 2010 and continued through the third quarter. sales price for a Manhattan luxury property was activity stabilized $4,393,749 in the third quarter, 12.5% higher than $800,000 Over the last decade, a luxury property took an $500 Market share of luxury properties consistent $3,905,000 in the same period last year and average of 19 days longer than the overall market $400,000 with $0 3Q average Luxury 09apartments historical 09 4Q 7.3% higher than $4,093,365 in the 3Q 10 quarter. 1Q 10 2Q 10 prior to sell. In the first quarter of 2010, the disparity began at $3,060,000 in the third quarter, Average sales price was $5,636,600, up 15.5% was 70 days longer for luxury properties falling $0 LISTING�DISCOUNT�VS��DAYS�ON�MARKET�/�CONDO 1Q 09 2Q 09 3 accounting for 10% of the unit sales and 37.9% of from $4,881,561 in the same period last year and to 11 days in the third quarter as sales volume 15% 300 the total dollar volume, consistent with the 36.9% 9% higher than $5,169,161 in the prior quarter. expanded. However, listing discount expanded ten year average. Listing inventory fell 31.2% to 12% 240 Price per square foot followed the same pattern over the same period to 7.3% from 4.1% in the 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 Days On Market 1,112 units, and fell 14.7% from 1,304 units in the rising 14.6% to $1,897 from $1,655 in the prior year same period last year and up from 6.4% in the 9% 180 prior quarter. Listing inventory in the luxury quarter and up 2.9% from $1,843 in the prior prior quarter, inferring that sellers became more market represented 13.7% of total apartment 6% 200 quarter. 120 confident about setting list prices higher as inventory, the smallest market share in over two 60 demand improved. 3% 175 Listing discount and days on market declined years, reflective of the surge inDiscount over the Listing activity Note: This sub-category is the analysis of the top ten percent of all Days on market was 136 days, 45 days 0faster 0% quarters. New development150 1Q 10 prior several3Q 09 4Q 09 market 2Q 10 3Q 10 co-op and condo sales. The data is also contained within the co-op than 181 days during the same period last year. and condo markets presented. share represented 21.4% of all luxury sales in the Days On Market 125 The 2009 housing market was characterized 100 AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LUXURY Luxury Market Matrix AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LOFT Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year Qtr 1Q 10 $2,500 2Q 10 3Q 10 75 Average Sales Price $1,500 $5,636,600 9% $5,169,161 15.5% $4,881,561 $2,200 Average Price per Square Foot $1,897 2.9% $1,843 14.6% $1,655 $1,300 Downtown $1,900 East Side West Side Uptown Median Sales Price $4,393,749 7.3% $4,093,365 12.5% $3,905,000 $1,100 Number of Sales 266 -3.6% 276 19.3% 223 $1,600 Days on Market (from Last List Date) 136 -6.8% 146 -24.9% 181 $1,300 $900 Listing Discount (from Last List Price) 7.3% 6.4% 4.1% $1,000 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 $700 3Q 09 Listing Inventory 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 1,112 3Q 10 -14.7% 1,304 -31.2% 1,616 Loft market quarter of 2009. Price per square foot was Listing discount and days on market fell The $1,091 in the third quarter, up 6.2% from $1,027 in listing discount or percent spread between the same period last year, but 4.7% below $1,145 the contract price at time of sale and the sales Number of sales jumped as10 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q in the prior quarter. price was 5.6% down from 7.7% in the prior year inventory fell inventory fell as number of sales surged There quarter and nominally higher than 5.4% in the 300 prior quarter. Days on market fell to 104 days in Price indicators above prior year levels The were 190 loft sales in the third quarter, 53.2% the third quarter, more than a month faster than median sales price of a Manhattan loft was 240 higher than 124 sales in the same period last year, Days On Market the 137 day average during the same period last $1,660,000, 10.7% higher than $1,500,000 but 27.5% less than 262 sales in the prior quarter. 180 year, but 24 days longer than 80 days in the prior in the same period last year and 5.7% above The surge in loft sales last quarter appeared to quarter. These patterns are consistent with the 120 $1,570,000 in the prior quarter. Average sales be an anomaly given the 182 and 180 sale totals decline in listing inventory as buyers have fewer price was $1,981,389 in the third quarter, 11.4% 60 respectively in the preceding two quarters. With choices and sellers were priced closer to market higher than $1,778,140 in the prior year quarter, 0 the surge in sales, listing inventory fell 16.4% to 521 levels. 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 but 3.7% below $2,057,776 in the prior quarter, units from 623 units in the same period last year Note: This sub-category is the analysis of all co-op and condo loft sales available. The data is also contained within the co-op and the highest average sales price since the first and 4.9% from 548 units in the prior quarter. condo markets presented. AVERAGE�PRICE�PER�SQ�FT�/�LOFT LOft Market Matrix Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Year Qtr $1,500 Average Sales Price $1,981,389 -3.7% $2,057,776 11.4% $1,778,140 Average Price per Square Foot $1,091 -4.7% $1,145 6.2% $1,027 $1,300 Median Sales Price $1,660,000 5.7% $1,570,000 10.7% $1,500,000 $1,100 Number of Sales 190 -27.5% 262 53.2% 124 Days on Market (from Last List Date) 104 30% 80 -24.1% 137 $900 Listing Discount (from Last List Price) 5.6% 5.4% 7.7% $700 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 Listing Inventory 521 -4.9% 548 -16.4% 623 ©2010 Prudential Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel Inc. All worldwide rights reserved. eaStSiDe 980 Madison Ave. 212.650.4800 • 575 Madison Ave. 212.891.7000 MiDtowN 425 East 58th St. 212.832.1666 Prudential douglas elliMan Miller saMuel inc. 205 East 42nd St. 212.692.6111 • 485 Madison Ave. 212.350.8500 weStSiDe 1995 Broadway 212.362.9600 • 2142 Broadway real estate real estate aPPraisers 212.769.2004 • 2169 Frederick Douglass Blvd. 212.865.1100 DowNtowN 90 Hudson St. 212.965.6000 • 26 West 17 St. 575 Madison Avenue 21 west 38th Street New York, NY 10022 New York, NY 10018 212.645.4040 • 137 Waverly Pl. 212.206.2800 • 51 East 10 St. 212.995.5357 • 690 Washington St. 212.352.5252 BrookLyN 156 212.891.7000 212.768.8100 Montague St. 718.780.8100 • 189 Court St. 718.522.2929 • 299 Bedford Ave. 718.486.4400 • 154 Seventh Ave. 718.840.2000 prudentialelliman.com millersamuel.com 664 Fulton Street 718.780.8100 reNtaL 485 Madison Ave. 212.350.8500 reLoCatioN 575 Madison Ave. 212.891.HOME For more information or electronic copies of this report please visit prudentialelliman.com/marketreports. Email report author Jonathan Miller ©2010. An Independently owned and operated member of the Prudential Real Estate Affiliates, Inc. is a service mark of Prudential Insurance Company of America Equal Housing Opportunity. All material presented herein is intended at jmiller@millersamuel.com with questions or comments. for information purposes only. While this information is believed to be correct, it is represented subject to errors, omissions, changes or withdrawal without notice. All property outlines and square footage in property listings are approximate.