Yemenia Focus (Issue No. 4) BREAKING THE RULES RIYADH OR KUWAIT OPERATION This is the fourth issue of Yemenia focus, addressing the comparison between Riyadh and Kuwait Yemenia stations, during the crises period. The issue is solved by calculating the average trend line, and the seasonality index for the period of 2008-2010. That should be reflected for the period of 2015-2016.

1. Yemenia Focus (Issue No. 4)
BREAKING THE RULES
RIYADH OR KUWAIT OPERATION!
By : Mohammed Salem Awad
Aden Regional Director - Yemenia
When I was student, there was a
saying i.e "To Fit a Data is an Art"
I think it is a fair statement if we refer
to Ryanair forecasting graph at
appendix no. 2. The constrains are
fairly defined in the boundaries levels.
While in practice the story is different,
especially in the crises, the data cannot
reflect the right pattern of model in
peacetime. However, no doubts about
the forecasting rules and its impacts in
practice, usually airlines works on the
typical patterned for the forecasting.
Today the rules are changed, it is not a
question of best fit of curve, and get
higher score in a class, NO , really we
are looking for some characteristics of
the forecasting model, as base trend
line and its variation in good time –
seasonality index that develop some
tangible and reasonable figure may
work on it.
Therefore, airlines operate to any
destination based on the sound of the
market, which will add revenue/profit
to the network of the airline. However,
it is a question of GO or NO GO first
on papers before we invest for nothing or poor decision.
We have two scenarios in such cases based on the request situation,
1- First, if the destination is a new one for the network, for the airline, we have to
use Gravity Model. To evaluate the demand.
2- Second, while if this destination is existing one but we want to evaluate and
compare it with another one due to our limited resources, then we have to
study the historical data to predicate the right demand. (Our case study)
The Problem:
Due to Yemen crises, the operation from Aden is the economic one as Aden airport at
a Sea Level. Therefore, a primary network is setup that includes Doha (DOH) and
Kuwait (KWI) by top management of Yemenia in Cairo, the proposed table is shown

2. 2 2
in appendix no.1 . The past tell us the most successful destinations from Aden are
Jeddah (JED) and Riyadh (RUH) but unfortunately, they are not addressed in the
table. So how to come with right decisions to compare these destinations in numbers,
what are the basic rules to solve this problem, what is the right seasonality pattern of
these sectors, how many flight per month, and how many passengers per flight to be.
Basic Concept of Forecasting Model:
Forecasting is a unique science, very useful in practice, and use widely in many fields,
especially Aviation. Here we are concerning on
the application of Forecasting for Airlines, and
Airports. Airlines can define their seasonality,
and its impacts on operations and maintenance
programs, we have to define the right demand for
the right sector in the right segment. While most
of Investors in Airline Industry are concerned for
the performance factors that’s Traffic and
Capacity, RPM ,ASM , and Load Factor. They
are evaluated them by comparing their values in
past according to month-by-month approached.
Here we look forward, to the future to set targets.
So forecasting is tilling us the future patterns for these factors, which
consequently, we can develop and forecast the expected Load Factor, which
means also define the future performance for airlines. There are many
methods of forecasting, but the approach of Max/Min Signal Tracking,
deliver the best scenario for the data that can be analyzed. No grey region,
just in a black and white / Good or Bad based on the constrains that we are
applied.
Objective:
The main objective of the study is to developed a solid base of data that may reflect
the future, yes the country in total mess, so we will not address the goodness of fit as a
main factor to accept the study, but we will work on
1- Averages Trend Line That Have A Zero Growth, and
2- Defining the Seasonality Index of Stable Period.
If these two steps are evaluated, then we can explore and extend the model to the
target period safely.
Basic Data:
The data are the number of passengers and cycles that reported by Aden airport.
Three basic periods are addressed:
1- 2008-2010 (Stable Period – Basically use for analysis)
2- 2011-2015 (Yemen Crises Period)
3- 2015-2016 (Target Period - Forecast)
Unstable Period ForecastStable Period

3. 3 3
Analysis:
1- Riyadh Sector. (RUH)
Riyadh is the capital of Saudia Arabian Kingdom, it consider as the political and
commercial center in kingdom, it is located in middle of the kingdom closer to east
part. The sector can be represents by a normal pattern of airline seasonality model.
One operator dominate the operation the sector ADE-RUH i.e Yemenia (IY) and
operate a direct flights. The period of the analysis is 2008-2010. While the target
period is 2015-2016.
The analysis address the passengers and the cycles, so we can evaluate passengers per
flight.
- Passengers
- Cycles

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2- Kuwait Sector. (KWI)
Kuwait is gulf competitive hub for Asia continent, more closely to the northern for
Arabian peninsula, it consider an excellent gate that may serve European cities with
Fareast cities. but the operation to other side i.e to Africa needs a lot of investments,
yes Yemenia can operate on the bases of 3th
and 4th
traffic freedom but that operation
is not enough to run a feasible operation, based on the data base of 2008-2010 period,
which shows a poor traffic movements ended by stopping the operation to Aden
airport at half period, except those indirect flights, represents by 1 flights in the graph
for the purpose of the analysis. The analysis address the passengers and the cycles, so
we can evaluate passengers per flight.
- Passengers
- Cycles

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Results:
Riyadh Operation
Kuwait Operation
Conclusions:
The propose of study is to find a solid base that we can move forward, the concept is
to evaluate Flight/week, based on stable historical data (2008-2010), overriding the
crises period with a zero growth and reflecting the same seasonality index for the
target period (2015-2016). Using a typical forecasting model.
The results are fair; we use the same assumption on both cases for Riyadh and Kuwait
operation. Based on the result tables Riyadh destination is in a better position to serve
Aden, where there is a poor traffic flow for Kuwait.
Final word, to those who are seeking for a high forecasting accuracy please get my
presentation as shown in appendix No. 2. 

6. 6 6
Appendix No. 1.
Operation flights to/from ADE:
SUN 13 SEP 15
IY649 A320 AMM 0800 ADE 1130 LT
IY852 A320 ADE 1230 DXB 1620 LT
MON 14 SEP 15
IY853 A320 DXB 1000 ADE 1200 LT
IY854 A320 ADE 1300 BOM 1930 LT
TUE 15 SEP 15
IY855 A320 BOM 1000 ADE 1130 LT
IY648 A320 ADE 1300 AMM 1630 LT
WED 16 SEP 15
IY649 A320 AMM 0800 ADE 1130 LT
IY826 A320 ADE 1230 KWI 1600 LT
THU 17 SEP 15
IY827 A320 KWI 0800 ADE 1130 LT
IY824 A320 ADE 1230 DOH 1530 LT
FRI 18 SEP 15
IY825 A320 DOH 1000 ADE 1215 LT
IY822 A320 ADE 1330 DXB 1720 LT
SAT 19 SEP 15
IY823 A320 DXB 1000 ADE 1200 LT
IY648 A320 ADE 1300 AMM 1630 LT

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Appendix No. 2
http://www.slideshare.net/wings_of_wisdom/ryanair-presentation-42268156