Financial advisors, TV pundits and an endless stream of experts and nonexperts readily offer their predictions about the future, whether related to the stock market, international relations or the next Presidential election. But how good are those predictions? As it turns out, most of us are not very good at making forecasts, and even the best-known experts do not have a solid track record.
So what makes a good forecaster? In the new book, "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction," Wharton management professor Philip Tetlock and co-author Dan Gardner look into what makes people good forecasters. Tetlock, who is also a professor of psychology at Penn’s School of Arts and Sciences, recently spoke to Knowledge@Wharton about his decades of research on the topic and how you can incorporate some of these forecasting techniques into your own life.