A prospective client asked for a presentation on societal collapse, with roughly a 400-year time horizon. As I had heard that Prof. Bruce Tonn was editing a special issue of Futures on extinction scenarios, I requested access to the essays ahead of publication. He kindly assented, and I drew on several of the essays to create this slidedeck of "collapse" scenarios (I wasn't asked to take the stories to complete extinction). Some of the stories I wanted to tell were not well-represented in the essays of the special edition, and so I drew on other resources as well. Finally, I chose to interpret "collapse" as "the end of the world as we know it," and thus also included a post-Singularity, nanotech, "mutable world" scenario. Please feel free to contact me (wendy@infinitefutures.com) if you have any questions.
Unleash Your Potential - Namagunga Girls Coding Club
Collapse Scenarios, drawn from the Futures special issue on extinction scenarios.
1. Long-range Collapse Scenarios:
“It’s the end
a compilation.
of the world
as we know
Dr. Wendy L. Schultz
Infinite Futures, Oxford
it...(and I
feel fine.)”
R.E.M., 1987
2. Fire and Ice
Some say the world will end in fire;
Some say in ice.
From what I’ve tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To know that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.
Robert Frost, 1923
2
3. Foresight:
4 Modes & 5 Key Activities
4 Thinking 5 Foresight Activities:
Modes: Identify and monitor change;
Logical Map and critique impacts;
Creative Imagine alternative outcomes;
Systemic Envision preferred futures;
Intuitive Organise and act to create change.
3
4. Alternative possible futures...
Reality is a non-linear -- i.e., chaotic -- system, and
thus impossible to predict;
Possible futures emerge from the turbulent
interplay of emerging change with our complex
evolving selves and societies.
possibility one
possibility two
trends
innovations …etc.
revolutions, etc. possibility three
5. …alternative possible futures:
Foresight assumes that we face not one
predictable future, but many possible futures;
of those possible futures, some are more
probable than others -- we can evaluate changing
probabilities by monitoring trend growth;
of those possible futures, some are more
preferable than others -- we can evaluate
preferability by dialogue within our community.
6. Five Key Activities
of Integrated Foresight
Identify & Critique Imagine Envision Plan &
Monitor Change Change the Possible the Preferred Implement
Identify Examine Identify, Identify, Identify
patterns of primary, analyze, and analyze, stakeholders,
change: secondary, build and resources;
trends in tertiary alternative articulate clarify goals;
chosen impacts; images of images of design
variables, inequities in the future, preferred strategies;
changes in impacts; or futures, or organize
cycles, and differential ’scenarios.’ ’visions.’ action; create
emerging access, etc. change.
issues of
change.
Integrated Foresight
7. Scenarios:
definition and use
“Multiple scenarios are pen-pictures of a
range of plausible futures…constructed
in such a way as to bound the
uncertainties… inherent in the future.”
Kees van der Heijden, The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organisational
Learning with Scenarios, 2002
Scenario thinking enables planners and
decision-makers to test designs,
strategies, and policies for robustness
across widely varying future contexts.
7
8. Scenarios in Application
• Government organisations, e.g.:
• Corporation of London;
• DIUS / BERR;
• European Union;
• NHS;
• Scottish Executive
• Businesses, e.g.:
• Diageo;
• Pfizer Pharmaceuticals;
• Royal Dutch Shell;
• Swiss Re;
• Unilever
9. Scenarios: Key Points
• Scenarios are NOT predictions.
• Scenarios ARE vivid stories that allow us:
• To explore the boundaries of uncertainty;
• To develop and test strategies for the future.
• Just as the present contains diverse challenges to
safety and perceptions of risk, so will the future:
• Produce new threats AND new safety innovations;
• Produce new risk perceptions and design paradigms.
• The scenarios presented are designed to help you
explore how:
• Long-range futures could challenge current designs;
• Long-range safety could require new mental models.
10. Causes of Collapse
Complex evolving systems:
Humans adapt and mal-adapt - both
can cause fatal feedback in human-
world system
Eg, classic systems archetypes:
“Tragedy of the Commons”
“Success to the Successful”
“Growth and Underinvestment”
10
11. Collapse Scenario Option Matrix
Life / Culture / Discovery /
Origin Global Warming Global Cooling
Demography Society Innovation
Fire Fade Away
Decreasing stability Accelerating change;
Desertification; and security locally nano-bio-info-cogno
End of interglacial, Slow decline in
Gradual slow sea-level rise; and internationally convergence; ability
transition to fertility worldwide
Changes aquifer intrusion; as people compete to manipulate
glaciation. followed by global
agricultural decline. for scarce resources. “nature” / ourselves.
population decline.
Flood Meltdown Transform
New “little ice age,” Famine: starvation;
Increased sea melt, generated by, eg, depressed immune Mass civil unrest and Singularity: radical
Abrupt partial collapse of increased volcanic systems; resistant border / regional innovation feedback
Changes the West Antarctic dust and/or shifts in infectious agents and conflicts; failed blows away human /
Ice Shelf: sea level Gulf Stream. zoogenesis. states explode. machine /natural
rises 1 metre. boundaries.
Ice Plague Blowup
Warlord deploys Discovery of Grand
Asteroid strike
Wild Card / Super-volcano or Global plague: bio-WMD against Unifying Theory /
superheats Earth’s
Discontinuities Nuclear Winter population collapse. neighbouring “Theory of
atmosphere.
territory. Everything”
12. Scenario
Fire Ice Options,
Refined
Natural World
Flood Plague
Meltdown Blowup
Social World
Fade Away Transform
13. The natural world base scenarios
may be interconnected and inter-
embedded;
The social world base scenarios
may be interconnected and inter-
embedded;
The natural world base scenarios
may act as either triggers or
accelerators of social world base
scenarios.
Complex Evolving Futures
16. excerpts from Christopher Jones,
Fire: the long term
“Gaia Bites Back: Accelerated
Warming,” Futures, Vol. 41, Issue
10, December 2009.
[Between the 22nd and 27th centuries,] the world’s borders became increasingly porous
and transparent, driven by the increasingly severe ecological catastrophes, from the
collapse of the Amazon forest system, to the widespread coastal flooding around the
globe. Sea levels rose faster than many projections—four meters, on average...
...the terrestrial situation continued to deteriorate. The dry, warm climate shift wreaked
havoc on temperate and now desiccated tropical forests that caught fire. Hundreds of
millions of hectares burned every year, decade after decade. Peat bogs dried and then
burned in many remaining transitional lands despite the fact that slash-and-burn
agriculture had largely disappeared. The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
rose past 500 parts per million (ppm), ocean temperatures also warmed, and although
solar shades were put in La Grange orbits between the Earth and the Sun, there was no
obvious immediate cooling effect.
Then an even more dangerous and destabilizing development occurred after the world
oceans warmed to an average of 14O C, warm enough to begin the release of a form of
ice deep in the oceans, methane hydrates, which rose to the surface and melted
releasing methane into the atmosphere. Methane is not as long-lived a greenhouse gas is
carbon dioxide, but is 24 times more potent a greenhouse gas. By the end of the
century, the average terrestrial temperature rose to 27O C, and many remaining forests
burned. Previously lush, humid and tropical areas like the Amazon, Papua New Guinea,
and Indonesia turned mostly to desert. [continued next slide]
16
17. excerpts from Christopher Jones,
Fire: the long term
“Gaia Bites Back: Accelerated
Warming,” Futures, Vol. 41, Issue
10, December 2009.
,.. the planetary weather was more energetic and chaotic than at any time in recorded
history; the seasons severe and months-long planet-wide super storms emerged. ....wild
extremes in weather. Ecosystem collapse unfolded across the planet’s surface. The mid
latitudes became a screaming dust belt and the only habitable zones were above the
Arctic Circle and in Antarctica. Antarctica became unstable geologically due to the
uplifting of the Earth’s crust and volcanism—both caused by the loss of East Antarctic
glaciers, so earthquake and storm resistant domes were constructed there. Construction
was difficult in both polar areas due to the increased frequency and intensity of cyclonic
storms, but Antarctica was a far greater challenge due to the fetch of the “Roaring 40s”
and intensified ocean circulation around the great Southern Ocean.
The melting of methane ices and loss of vegetation caused a significant, rapid buildup
of oxygen in the atmosphere. Rust quickly became a huge problem for metal tools and
mechanical systems. Accidental fires became a far more serious problem. Population
centers on the poles were either underground or sealed and air conditioned: by mid
century, few people visited the surface anymore.
17
19. Plague
Plague: within Fire
Meltdown
[Between the 21st and 25th centuries, as temperatures soared, ecologies collapsed, and sea
levels rose,]...mass migrations moved from poor country-sides into already overwhelmed and
unhealthy cities. In Asia, many of these immigrants took their farm animals with them. Since
the avian flu had been in the Western news for many years, the birds that migrated with their
owners into the cities had been genetically engineered by the West to resist a broad set of flu
viruses to deal with just this eventuality. Unfortunately, the Western paradigm was still based
on controlling nature, not co-existing with nature. As a result, what happened with bacteria --
such as streptococcus -- when antibiotics hastened the evolution of anti-biotic resistant
bacteria happened again, this time with the evolution of a new super-strain of avian flu virus.
No animals or humans had ever been exposed to this virus before. It was no surprise that the
infection spread rapidly through the Asian bird population. It was also no surprise when the
virus mutated again and spread to the human population.
Amplifying the destructiveness of the flu epidemic were traditional diseases, including:
tuberculosis, cholera, and malaria. These maladies flowed through populations already
weakened by HIV/AIDS, diabetes, asthma, obesity, heart disease, and cancer (e.g., from
smoking, air and water pollution, and destruction of the protective stratospheric ozone layer). adapted from Bruce Tonn and Donald
MacGregor, “A Singular Chain of
Few nations, even the wealthy, had functional public health systems that could cope with the
Events,” Futures, Vol. 41, Issue 10,
onslaught. Within a year, just over two billion people died from infectious diseases, roughly December 2009.
one third of the human population, about the same as the infamous Black Plague.
[continued next slide]
19
20. Plague
Plague: within Fire
Meltdown
Unfortunately, unlike the aftermath of the Black Plague in the Middle Ages, human
population continued to slide... Next up was climate change. ...the countries of the world
had not stemmed the use of fossil fuels and, therefore, had not reduced the emissions of
greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. No technologies had been put in place to reduce
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and sequester the carbon elsewhere. It was as if the
planet extracted revenge through withering droughts in Central China, Northern Africa,
and North Central North America, deadly heat waves in Western and Central Europe,
implacable sea level rise in the Asian Pacific region, and apocalyptic storms worldwide.
People were literally washed away down rivers and into oceans.
Agricultural systems collapsed outside of the economically wealthy areas, which attempted
self-sufficiency and sealed themselves away from the poor of the world. But even in the
enclaves of the wealthy the built environment was pummeled. Another round of diseases,
mostly mosquito-borne this time, ravaged the world’s population. The developed world
offered no safety net for the rest of the world. The largest losses of population were in Asia
and Africa, closely followed by Central and South America. Within another thirty years,
another billion people perished as even the bulwarks of wealth failed against the scale of the
challenges. adapted from Bruce Tonn and Donald
By 2400, the world is sparsely populated, with mobility limited not only by collapsed MacGregor, “A Singular Chain of
Events,” Futures, Vol. 41, Issue 10,
infrastructure but also by deep-rooted paranoia regarding travellers as disease vectors.
December 2009.
Governance style slid toward the authoritarian, if not totalitarian, as a result of efforts to
control public health, public panic, and population movements.
20
22. adapted from Peter Seidel, “Is it
Inevitable that Evolution Self
Destruct?,” Futures, Vol. 41, Issue
Flood: within Fire
10, December 2009.
From the end of the 21st Century to the end of the 22nd, global conditions worsened:
energy and food costs rose as scarcities increased; environmental quality deteriorated; and
cutthroat global competition caused wage and worker safety standards to erode. Serious
environmental incidents multiplied, and resource wars sprang up, generating major acts of
terrorism. Most of the world’s powerful and wealthy isolated themselves from, or
accommodated themselves to, these continually deteriorating conditions.
New Orleans was abandoned after a more serious flooding than that caused by Katrina in
2005. Property values plummeted in low-lying coastal areas around the world as ocean levels
rose, salt water seeped into aquifers, and storms became more numerous and severe. The
Netherlands anxiously raised dike levels at great expense. Many people from the coasts and
the south moved inland and north as it grew warmer and land was lost to rising sea levels.
Resentment against them generated increased civil unrest. ...freshwater became more
expensive and its sources undependable with increasing saltwater intrusion into aquifers.
The poor in the impoverished parts of the world bore the brunt of these disasters, although
they had no influence over the lifestyles of those who were primarily causing the changes.
Low-lying areas of Bangladesh, Pakistan, and India became uninhabitable and some small
Pacific island nations were simply abandoned. Cities such as Calcutta, Mumbai, and Lagos
became increasingly uninhabitable as businesses fled and public health crises increased. Flood
Businesses, governments, and the well-to-do moved to higher ground. Wealthier cities such
as London, Sidney, NY, Tokyo, and Miami could afford to build their own dikes, and did.
[continued next slide]
Blowup
22
23. adapted from Peter Seidel, “Is it
Inevitable that Evolution Self
Destruct?,” Futures, Vol. 41, Issue
Flood: within Fire
10, December 2009.
Ironically, the growing icemelt diluted the Great Oceanic Conveyor: with the
increasingly erratic Gulf Stream no longer warming the British isles, temperatures
dropped locally, growing seasons shortened, and people began moving south -- where
they competed, often violently, with refugees moving north from the increasingly
unlivable regions hardest hit by floods and warming. The last straw was the sudden
calving of over half of the West Antarctic ice sheet, creating an additional rapid rise in
sea level of over a metre.
...the world food problem was far more serious by now than most people in ... other
wealthy nations realized. Reporting on it had been minimized. While new cropland
was opened up in Canada and Siberia, across the globe, much more had been lost by
coastal flooding, salination, desertification, lack of water, excessive heat, and
urbanization. Much of the topsoil that remained had deteriorated significantly.
Malnutrition, starvation, pandemics, sinking standards of living, and lost hope became
endemic in large areas of Africa, in the large cities of countries like Indonesia, Brazil,
and Mexico, and even in the economic dynamos of China and India. Throughout the
world, order was replaced by conflicts and chaos, and governments by warlords and
martial law. Border conflicts were rife, as was inner city rioting. Populations that had
Flood
once grown too rapidly shrank, due to starvation, disease, and escalating violence.
Blowup
23
25. Ice: the long term
Between the 21st and 24th Centuries, global climate warmed as so many had predicted --
and then surprisingly cooled in what 25th Century historians are calling the “Second Little
Ice Age” (comparable to the “Little Ice Age” of the 16th through 18th Centuries).
Commentators hearken back to the "Lesser Dryas" cooling event of 8-12 thousand years
ago, which also happened in a fairly abrupt fashion. While not the “whiplash ice age” total
global glaciation catastrophe some doomsayers gleefully forecast, this local (Northern
Atlantic) temperature downturn was significant. It originated in the strong chaotic
variation of climate properties that often manifests as rapid, decade-long transitions
between cold and warm climates followed by long interludes in one of the two states.
What actually drove the downward temperature shift? Increased volcanism culminated in
a cluster volcanic outbreak around the Pacific Rim that threw massive quantities of dust
into the air. Combined with slowing of the Great Oceanic Conveyor due to decreased
salinity engendered by increased glacial run-off, calving, and ice-melt, temperatures in the
North Atlantic cooled severely in the late decades of the 24th Century and first half of the
25th Century.
Models had previously suggested that a disruption of the northern limb of the overturning
ocean current circulation would affect the heat balance of the northern hemisphere; their drawn from the US National Research
forecasts of potential cooling of 3 to 5 degrees Celsius in the ocean and atmosphere (a third Council, Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable
Surprises, 2002; Joyce and Keigwin, “Are We
to a half the temperature change experienced during major ice ages) proved uncannily
on the Brink of a ‘New Little Ice Age’?; Jamais
accurate. These changes are about twice as large as those experienced in the worst winters Cascio, Worldchanging, “Not-So-Abrupt
of the 20th century, and are forecast to persist well into the 26th Century. Climate Change,” 2004: Toverud and
Holmlund, “Ice age influence on a nuclear
waste repository in Sweden”; and European
Science Foundation, “Big freeze plunged
25 Europe into ice age in months,” http://bit.ly/
6q9OcP
26. Ice: the long term
The resulting “Second Little Ice Age” in Northern Europe and the UK killed plant
species that had ‘migrated’ north during the long decades of global warming from the
21st-early 24th Centuries, and devastated the UK vineyards established in the hey-day
of agricultural restructuring after the initial climate shifts. Agricultural output
plummeted, and the notion of locally sustainable food supply became unsupportable.
The cooling also greatly strained infrastructure designed to withstand heat,humidity,
and flooding rather than record cold and the weight of snow and ice, not to mention
the friabiity engendered by constant re-freezing. Demands for power skyrocketed as
people struggled to stay warm -- some failed, and incidents of older, poorer residents
dying of hypothermia were common. On a brighter note, some succeeded, resulting in
what demographers have called the “Ice Age Bump” baby boom of 2410-2420.
Ironically, some groups are now advocated “radical warming” policies and the drawn from the US National Research
promotion of greenhouse gases to accelerate the end of this deep chill. Council, Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable
Surprises, 2002; Joyce and Keigwin, “Are We
on the Brink of a ‘New Little Ice Age’?; Jamais
Cascio, Worldchanging, “Not-So-Abrupt
Climate Change,” 2004: Toverud and
Holmlund, “Ice age influence on a nuclear
waste repository in Sweden”; and European
Science Foundation, “Big freeze plunged
26 Europe into ice age in months,” http://bit.ly/
6q9OcP
28. Ice
Fade Away: within Ice Fade Away
In the early 20th Century, the rapid increase in population raised concern that population
growth in many developing countries would outstrip countries' ability to feed their
populations. By the mid-21st century that concern evaporated in the face of a surprising
shift: developing countries experienced their transition from high to low fertility rates much
faster than occurred in Western nations in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. As total
fertility rates declined in most parts of the world, people at the end of the 21st century
worried more about imminent population decline.
What caused this transition from explosion to implosion? First, the continued aging of the
global population: longevity increased worldwide and birth rates declined, skewing the age
distribution of global population. Europe and Japan led the greying of global society. The
global distribution of population shifted south and east during the late 21st and early 22nd
centuries: where most countries' total fertility rates fell during this period, more than half of
the positive population growth occurred in three countries: Yemen, Uganda, and Niger. At
the same time, India overtook China to become the most populous country. Together, India
and China accounted for 48 percent of positive population growth. But by the end of the
21st century, global population was falling.
drawn from Environmental Literacy
By 2300, 40 percent of the world's population was over 60 years of age. With a continued Council, “World Population in
decrease in fertility rates over the centuries, total world population had declined to just over 2300,” (http://www.enviroliteracy.org/
2 billion. [continued on next slide] article.php/1446.html); O’Neill, Brian,
Balk, Deborah, “World Population
Futures,” Population Bu!etin, 2001.
28
29. Ice
Fade Away: within Ice Fade Away
The shift of population centres to Asia was also driven by in-migration: from the mid 21st
Century onward, the best and the brightest in the West increasingly headed East toward the
economic dynamos of the Pacific. The decreasing temperatures of the Second Little Ice Age
in the early 25th Century further encouraged out-migration that practically depopulated
parts of Northern Europe.
With few people left to mind the increasingly shabby store, governments struggled to
maintain basic infrastructure and services. Even major initiatives to shore up a viable work
force -- working age extended to 85, incentives for foreign labour -- could not address
business’s need for labour. The long economic depression that resulted further hampered
government’s ability to respond or maintain infrastructure as the tax base fell, creating a
vicious circle of fading resources and economic loss that drove even more people to seek
better opportunities elsewhere, leaving a society composed of the old and the talentless.
drawn from Environmental Literacy
Council, “World Population in
2300,” (http://www.enviroliteracy.org/
article.php/1446.html); O’Neill, Brian,
Balk, Deborah, “World Population
Futures,” Population Bu!etin, 2001.
29
31. Within thirty years, we will have
the technological means to create
superhuman intelligence.
Shortly after, the human era will
Transform be ended.
Vernor Vinge,
On the Singularity
presented at the VISION-21 Symposium
sponsored by NASA Lewis Research center and
the Ohio Aerospace Institute, 30-31 March 1993
(http://mindstalk.net/vinge/vinge-sing.html).
In the late 21st C, the convergence of innovations in information technology, bio-
engineering, nanotechnology, and the cognitive sciences created a self-reinforcing
acceleration of transformative change. These innovations were underpinned by the
paradigm shifts emerging from complexity and chaos theory, and in turn catalysed a
state of accelerating and near-continuous transformations in worldview.
The results? a completely and continuously mutable reality -- people can bioengineer
themselves and “nature”; the human - machine interface is completely porous, with
biochips and DNA processors extending “pervasive computing” into the human body;
smart machines co-design and re-design themselves and, in concert with their post-
human partners, co-design and re-design the worlds around them. Assembly and re-
assembly at the atomic level are almost literally child’s play.
The 24th century is also post-consumerist, post-literate, and post-Earth:
by the end of the 21st century the boundaries between producers and consumers
had been all but erased with pervasive home fabrication capability;
literacy had evolved into mediacy, and the new global pidgin owed as much to drawn from Ray Kurzweil, The
Mandarin and movies, and Hindi and high-impact role-playing games, as to Singularity is Near, 2005; Jim Dator,
English and the Latin languages. “Ubiquitous, Dream, Transformational,
the best and brightest have evolved as ‘homo stellae’, leaving the cradle of Earth, and Other Futures,” 2006.
or ‘homo oceanus’, adapted to life on and under the seas. [continued next slide]
“...technology will be the metaphorical opposable thumb that enables our next step
in evolution.” (Kurzweil)
31
32. Within thirty years, we will have
the technological means to create
superhuman intelligence.
Shortly after, the human era will
Transform be ended.
Vernor Vinge,
On the Singularity
presented at the VISION-21 Symposium
sponsored by NASA Lewis Research center and
the Ohio Aerospace Institute, 30-31 March 1993
(http://mindstalk.net/vinge/vinge-sing.html).
By 2400, humans, and their technologies, and the environments of both, have all three
merged into the same thing. Humans, as humans, lost their monopoly on intelligence,
while new forms of artificial life and artificial intelligence emerged, eventually perhaps
to supercede humanity, while the once "natural" environments of Earth became
exercises in managed evolution that were (and are still) continuously envisioned,
designed, created and transformed first by humans and then in conjunction with our
post-human successors (paraphrased from Dator). From homo sapiens sapiens to homo
sapiens silica and homo sapiens stellae and oceanus, and bio-silica sapiens.
Lives are long, experience a currency, education continuous, production and governance
open-source and blurred between the local and global, and children few. The
population has declined and scattered, and old installations attract the idle curiosity of
nanotech-enabled amateur archaeologists of all ages. The ‘ancient world’ artifacts of
pre-singularity humanity are seen as interesting curios of species childhood. drawn from Ray Kurzweil, The
Singularity is Near, 2005; Jim Dator,
“Ubiquitous, Dream, Transformational,
and Other Futures,” 2006.
“...technology will be the metaphorical opposable thumb that enables our next step
in evolution.” (Kurzweil)
32
34. Scenario Incasting: Instructions
You have each been assigned to one future (look on your nametag):
Rule one: suspension of disbelief -- you had no choice as to the era in which you
were born, and the same applies here.
Rule two: logical consistency -- extrapolate by filling in logically consistent
details, based on common sense and experience.
Rule three: creativity -- challenge your assumptions, think laterally, laugh.
The goal: a provocative and useful conversation focussed on these three
questions:
What does this scenario imply for long-terms risks in public infrastructure?
What does this scenario imply for infrastructure design?
What does this scenario imply for public utilities and public infrastructure
managers -- what should they be doing to prepare for this future?
Each group has an assigned tour guide / facilitator / rapporteur to capture
your discussion and summary points for the afternoon plenary.
35. 4 Thinking Modes:
Logical
Creative
Systemic
Intuitive
Use your whole brain.
36. The future will be framed by how we answer
five fundamental questions:
DEFINE: What new concepts, ideas, and
paradigms will emerge to help us make sense
of the world?
RELATE: How will we live together on planet
Earth?
CONNECT: What arts and technologies will
we use to connect people, places, and things?
CREATE: As human beings what will we be
inspired to create?
CONSUME: How will we use the earth’s
resources?
400 years = 16 generations.
37. Dr. Wendy L. Schultz
Infinite Futures:
foresight research and training
Oxford, England
http:// www.infinitefutures.com
Thank you.
Notas do Editor
All living systems are non-linear. The dynamics of living systems, and the interrelationships between the linear and non-linear systems which compose reality, generate uncertainty. Trends of change and their impacts are continually colliding. This creates turbulence and change, but also generates never before seen combinations of social impacts, of technologies, of ideas; the collision of trends generates bisociation or intersection: the perfect environment for creativity.
The collision of trends creates new possibilities, opening the door for alternative future contexts for any product, service, or brand.
Assessing the probability of any given image of the future actually occurring must of necessity be an ongoing process: as trends and emerging issues of change grow, transform, plateau, or collapse over time, the probability of a possible outcome, or possible future, may vary. Hence the need for ongoing identification and monitoring of indicators of change.
Secondly, organizations must also continually evaluate alternative possible futures to identify those that offer conditions most conducive to meeting goals to achieve the organizational vision, or preferred future. Note, however, that evaluating a possible future as offering conditions to achieve a vision is NOT THE SAME ACTIVITY as articulating a vision of a preferred future.
Prof. Slaughter champions ‘integral futures’ -- I would argue that in addition we should practice integrated foresight. Too often people choose just one foresight activity as a stand-alone project: horizon scanning OR scenario building OR visioning. This creates weak and ineffective foresight projects.
If you are starting foresight for the first time, you must begin by sensitizing yourself to change, and identifying the change emerging around you; you can then consider and map out potential impacts of change; combinations of impacts create scenarios of alternative possible futures. Once you understand the expanded opportunities created by emerging change, you can articulate a truly creative, transformational vision of a preferred future, and plan strategies to achieve it.
While an applied futures project may be structured in a variety of ways, and its activities scheduled in different order, this basic conceptual framework for foresight and futures studies is depicted assuming that you are starting from a blank slate.
Today we are going to focus on the creative dynamic generated as we move from identifying change through critiquing its impacts to the imagination of alternative possible futures, and the creation of scenarios.
Baroness Prof. Susan Greenfield: futures of neuroscience, cognition, and the human brain. The brain does not distinguish between imagined experience and lived experience: it grows, gains in complexity, adds neurons and interconnections and complexity from the stimulus of thought to the same extent as from the stimulus of life. Thus extrapolating, exploring, envisioning possible and preferred futures does in fact prepare your brain to work more effectively in processing the lived experience of whatever futures may arise.