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The Forecast // Artificial Intelligence

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The Forecast // Artificial Intelligence

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This report helps understanding the concept of artificial intelligence : the history, today's definition, the market dynamics, the benefits, the perception by the public, the real-life applications as well as the limits.

This report helps understanding the concept of artificial intelligence : the history, today's definition, the market dynamics, the benefits, the perception by the public, the real-life applications as well as the limits.

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The Forecast // Artificial Intelligence

  1. 1. The Forecast Artificial Intelligence By Usbek & Rica I October 2015 1  
  2. 2. Contents Methodology……………………………………………………………...…..3 Experts………………………………………………..…………………….…4 Part 1 / The context..…………………………………………………….…..5 1.  History……………………………………………………………….….…6 2.  Definition……………………………………………………………...….16 3.  Market dynamics……………………………………………………...…25 4.  Benefits………………………………………………………………..…50 5.  Consumer perception ……………………………………………….….59 Part 2 / Real-life applications…………………………………………….…72 1.  Lifestyle……………………………………………………………..........75 2.  Consumption………………………………………………………...…113 Part 3 / The limits……………………………………………………….…141 2   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  3. 3. Methodology + Online desk research & strategic watch (specialized websites, blogs, social media, print and online magazines) + Qualitative insights (expert interviews & extracts of public talks) + Quantitative insights (extracts of results from research studies) + In-situ observations (travel trips, shop visits, art exhibitions, films, advertising, the street) 3   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  4. 4. Interviewed experts Laurent Ach Manager of the French branch of Rakuten Institute of Technology (RIT), the research and innovation department of Rakuten group   Heather Locker Head of Trend Forecasting company Future Foundation, America   Rand Hindi CEO & Founder of predictive analytics startup Snips Vincent Le Cerf Doctor in computing specialized in artificial intelligence, and founder of company Metagenia 4   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  5. 5. PART 1 / CONTEXT 5   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  6. 6. History 1. 6   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  7. 7. Ancient times Thinking machines and artificial beings appeared in Greek myths: •  Talos was a man of Bronze forged by Hephaestus; •  Daedalus used quicksilver to install voice in his moving statues; •  King Alkinous of the Phaiakians employed gold and silver watchdogs; •  Pygmalion animated his statue Galatea, whom he felt in love with. Animated cult images were also worshiped in Egypt. Humanoid automatons were built by Yan Shi, Hero of Alexandria and Al-Jazari. Source: Wikipedia.com 7   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  8. 8. The Turing test (1950s) In early 1950s, British mathematician Alan Turing proposed a test to determine if a machine can be defined as "conscious." To this purpose, he developed the "imitation game”, according to which a judge can interact with a machine and a human using a terminal without being able to differentiate one from the other. Source: Wikipedia.com 8   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  9. 9. Formalization of the term (1956) The term “artificial intelligence” was coined in 1956 by American computer scientist and cognitive scientist John McCarthy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Source: Wikipedia.com 9   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  10. 10. Find out our complete analysis in the full report! Contact us at: contact@usbek-et-rica.fr You want to know more about the history of AI? The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  11. 11. Today’s definition2. 11   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  12. 12. The commonly accepted definition Today, Artificial Intelligence is more commonly known as "machine learning”. This consists in working on a database that is used as an example and then gets generalized. - Laurent Ach, Manager of the French branch of Rakuten Institute of Technology (RIT), the research and innovation department of Rakuten group (September 9, 2015) “ ” 12   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  13. 13. A.I. is not to be confused with…. 13   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  14. 14. “Big Data” Big Data is the collection of personal information whereas Artificial Intelligence is the use of this information. 14   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  15. 15. “Deep learning” Deep learning is the modern version of neural networks, those that use the latest techniques. These large networks involve more sophisticated results. 15   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  16. 16. Find out our complete analysis in the full report! Contact us at: contact@usbek-et-rica.fr You want to know more about today’s definition of AI? The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  17. 17. Market dynamics3. 17   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  18. 18. 3.1. Growth & forecast 3.2. Market players 18   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  19. 19. 3.1. Growth & forecast 19   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  20. 20. Smart machines : a spectacular evolution to come The global market for smart machines will grow to $15.3 billion by 2019, with an average annual growth rate of 19.7%. Source: BCC Research, May 2014 20   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  21. 21. Robotics : the most promising category The autonomous robots segment (including self-driving vehicles for space exploration), which was valued at just $1.1 billion in 2013, is set to jump to nearly $3.6 billion in 2019 and $13.9 billion in 2024. Source: BCC Research study, May 2014 21   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  22. 22. Mobility is expected to be a key sector Advanced driver assistance systems will have a global market volume of €16 billion in 2019 ($17 billion), compared to €5 billion in 2012. Source: Strategy Analytics, Octobr 2014 22   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  23. 23. Find out our complete analysis in the full report! Contact us at: contact@usbek-et-rica.fr You want to know more about growth & forecast? The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  24. 24. 3.2. Market players 24   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  25. 25. The future of A.I. is currently hold in the hands of a few players Facebook Amazon Apple Google 25   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  26. 26. A potential threat to watch closely The GAFA are acquiring all the business in the field of A.I. As they are only a few, we should watch them closely. The solution? Making them public - which sounds complicated – or improving their regulation. - Vincent Le Cerf, Doctor in computing specialized in artificial intelligence, and founder of company Metagenia (September 18, 2015) “ ” 26   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  27. 27. Alongside the GAFA, other tech giants have entered the market of AI 27   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  28. 28. LATEST ACQUISITIONS: + Nest Labs, the maker of the Nest Learning Thermostat and Protect smoke detector on January 2014 for $3.2 billion. + DeepMind, the artificial intelligence research startup working on Artificial Intelligence, for a reported $400 million. The company has added : –  Dark Blue Labs that specializes in deep learning for understanding natural language, –  Vision Factory that specializes in visual recognition systems and deep learning.     28   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  29. 29. PROJECTS TO WATCH: + The company developed virtual personal assistant Google Now in 2012 and launched Google Now on Tap in June 2015. + A machine created in Feb 2015, can figure out how to play and win video games - over 49 Atari 2600 computer games from the 1980s. + An advanced type of “chatbot” that learns how to respond in conversations based on examples from a training set of dialogue. The bot can form new answers from new questions. Future versions could be used in more general decision-making applications, such as driverless cars or weather prediction. 29   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  30. 30. LATEST INITIATIVES: + Metaio, an augmented reality firm, has been acquired; + John Morrell, a Yale robotics expert, was recruited in 2013; + Vocal IQ, a speech-related artificial intelligence company, has been acquired in October 2015. It enables users to talk more naturally with their smart devices. 30   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015 John Morrell
  31. 31. PROJECTS TO WATCH: + Proactive, an intelligent, context-based software that will to learn the user’s habits and predict their needs accordingly; + The Apple Car, which is currently called “Project Titan”, and set to be released in 2020. The car will feature spoken word instruction, predictive analytics, automatic accident prevention and car-to-car communication; + Improvements on Siri, such as making users’ interactions with it more natural; running searches of the photo roll based on dates and locations; setting contextual reminders based on what the user is doing on the phone; having deep integration with Apple Music, etc. 31   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  32. 32. The world’s leading figures + Yann LeCun, deep learning expert, Founding Director of the NYU Center for Data Science and Director of AI Research at Facebook; + Geoff Hinton, world leader in deep learning expert, professor at the University of Toronto and Distinguished Researcher at Google; + Demis Hassabis, former chess champion and founder of DeepMind Technologies, acquired by Google; + Ralf Herbrich, European Union director of machine learning at Amazon and managing director of the Amazon Development Center in Germany. 32   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015 Yann LeCun Geoff Hinton Demis Hassabis Ralf Herbrich
  33. 33. Find out our complete analysis in the full report! Contact us at: contact@usbek-et-rica.fr You want to know more about the market players? The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  34. 34. Benefits 4. 34   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  35. 35. 4.1. Control 4.2. Performance 4.3. Convenience & comfort 4.4. Seamless 4.5. Personalization 35   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  36. 36. Control Consumers are increasingly getting used to having control over every aspect of their lives - mostly through the use of their smartphone, which has become out life 'remote control'. AI will only increase this need for or increase consumer desire for more control over their lives. - Heather Cocker, Head of Future Foundation America “ ”36   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  37. 37. Performance More and more tasks are better performed by machines. That's why some experts say there is no limit. Also, we’re going to generalize and so turn to the machines to find out how to act. - Laurent Ach, Manager of the French branch of Rakuten Institute of Technology (RIT), the research and innovation department of Rakuten group (September 9, 2015) “ ” 37   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  38. 38. Seamless In this era, called “Ubiquitous Computing”, adding new connected devices does not add friction, it actually adds value! (...) Technology will have become so deeply integrated in our lives and ourselves that we simply won’t notice it anymore. Artificial Intelligence will have made technology disappear from our consciousness, and the world will feel unplugged again. - Rand Hindi, CEO & Founder of predictive analytics startup Snips “ ” 38   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  39. 39. Find out our complete analysis in the full report! Contact us at: contact@usbek-et-rica.fr You want to know more about the benefits of AI? The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  40. 40. Perception by the public5. 40   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  41. 41. 5.1. Super powerful machines 5.2. Our new friends 5.3. Threat to the job market 5.4. Extermination of the human race 41   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  42. 42. 5.1. Super powerful machines 42   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015 1987 2011 2015 2014 In popular culture, robots are often figured as super performing and indestructible machines whose strength surpasses that of humans. This reflects people’s fantasy of the invincible and immortal creature.
  43. 43. 5.2. Our new friends 43   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015 1999 2012 2005 2015 2013 Smart machines are perceived positively by humans and accepted in society as long as they demonstrate human characteristics such as emotion and feelings.
  44. 44. Find out our complete analysis in the full report! Contact us at: contact@usbek-et-rica.fr You want to know more about the perception by the public? The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  45. 45. PART 2 / REAL-LIFE APPLICATIONS 45   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  46. 46. Lifestyle 1. 46   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  47. 47. 1.1. Medical Care 1.2. Education 1.3. Home 1.4. Work 1.5. Mobility 1.6. Personal assistants 47   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  48. 48. 1.1. Medical care #NursingRobot #ProcedureAutomation #SurgeonAssistants 48   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  49. 49. Medical care Unveiled in February 2015, Robear is a Japanese nursing robot that is designed to help with elder care. Japan has one of the largest aging populations in the world, so this is incredibly important. Robear is able to lift elderly patients out of bed and into wheelchairs, as well as helping those who need assistance to stand up. Robear weighs in at 140kg, and is the successor to heavier robots RIBA and RIBA-II. 49   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  50. 50. Medical care Veebot is an intelligent machine that aims to make the whole procedure of venipuncture automated. In doing so, it will reduce error and decrease venipuncture times. The company claims the robot can use imaging technology to find the right vein, draw the blood, and mark for the lab far faster than any human. Benefits include hospitals and clinics’ money savings, while it reduces the risk of injury to practitioners, and improves comfort and care for patients.   50   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  51. 51. 1.2. Education #RobotTeacher #DigitalPen #VirtualConcierge 51   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  52. 52. Education Two humanoid robots, Max and Ben, have been helping teach children with autism at Topcliffe Primary, in the UK. Head teacher Ian Lowe said: "The robots have no emotion, so autistic children find them less threatening than their teachers and easier to engage with."   52   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  53. 53. Education Poppy is an open-source platform for the creation, use and sharing of interactive 3D printed robots. It gathers an interdisciplinary community of beginners and experts, scientists, educators, developers and artists, that all share a vision: robots are powerful tools to learn and be creative.   53   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  54. 54. Find out our complete analysis in the full report! Contact us at: contact@usbek-et-rica.fr You want to know more about the applications of AI in lifestyle? The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  55. 55. Consumption 2. 55   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  56. 56. 2.1. Retail 2.2. Food & Drink 2.3. Hospitality 2.4. Entertainment 56   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  57. 57. 2.1. Retail #RobotAssistant #Personnalization #Beacons #VirtualCloset 57   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  58. 58. Retail Japanese giant Toshiba aims to enhance the in-store experience with the creation of a humanoid robot-assistant named Aiko Chihira. Situated at the information desk of a department store in Tokyo, it is supposed to help customers find their way around but is unlikely to engage in smalltalk. The female- looking robot only speaks Japanese - but she is also capable of sign language. Chihira also blinks, bows and moves its mouth and lips smoothly while speaking.   58   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  59. 59. Retail US shoe retailer Steve Madden is now using predictive analytics through Certona, the leader in real-time omnichannel personalization, to connect customers with the fashion and products they love in a way that is personal, unique and targeted to each individual. Indeed, the patented technology enables the brand to identify new and specific customer segments, and then strategically target content by segment. When shoppers navigate Steve Madden’s interactive, digital ecosystem, they receive personalized content and offers that appeal to their individual preferences.   59   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  60. 60. 2.2. Food & Drink #VendingMachine #MobileApp #SelfTracking 60   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  61. 61. Food & Drink UK-based company Smart Vend Solutions has created an intelligent vending machine that uses facial recognition technology to remember users' previous purchases and product preferences and replace unhealthy crisps and sweets with healthier food options. The machine is linked to an existing database of self-registered subscribers, which makes it able to personally greet customers, recall their past purchases and even refuse to sell them products based on their age, dietary requirements and medical history.   61   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  62. 62. Food & Drink Californian start-up BitBite has created an in-ear wearable device that tracks and analyses eating habits. It uses sensors to measure bite count, number of calories consumed, and the speed and quality of chewing. It can then offer tips on improving eating habits and calorie intake via an accompanying smartphone app. BitBite has surpassed its $60,000 crowdfunding goal on website Indiegogo, and is currently into production. 62   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  63. 63. Find out our complete analysis in the full report! Contact us at: contact@usbek-et-rica.fr You want to know more about the applications of AI in consumption? The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  64. 64. PART 3 / THE LIMITS 64   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  65. 65. 1.1. Robots remain robots 1.2. Technical imperfections 1.3. Ethics and moral 1.4. Digital detox 1.5. Naming issue 65   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  66. 66. 1.1. Robots remain robots As of 2015, computers are still not able to simulate human behavior. This is essentially due to the failure to demonstrate linguistic intelligence. If they can be attentive and empathetic, they remain pretty functional and can’t maintain a proper conversation. 66   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  67. 67. 1.2. Technical imperfections Risk of a breakdown, data loss, cyberattacks, not to mention viruses, system failures and general bugs… AI is not exempt of malware, which highlights its current vulnerability. In the current state of technology, systems are not free from hacking and bugs, which are still annoying to users. Yet, the first thing users ask from tech is that their devices work seamlessly, simultaneously and without interruption. Besides, because A.I. algorithms are being asked to make always higher-stakes decisions, such as driving cars and controlling robots, the impact of technical issues and attacks are likely to be much more devastating than they were in the past. Source: International Journal of Scientific Engineering and Research, September 2013 Source: Medium.com, January 2015 67   The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  68. 68. Find out our complete analysis in the full report! Contact us at: contact@usbek-et-rica.fr You want to know more about the limits of AI? The Forecast l Artificial Intelligence l October 2015
  69. 69. Thank you Contacts: Roxane Baché, Director of Trends & Insights roxane.bache@usbek-et-rica.fr Jérôme Ruskin, Founder & CEO jerome.ruskin@usbek-et-rica.fr 69  

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