Randolph Koppa, President, Trade and Development Bank of Mongolia

1. BACK TO THE FUTURE
Key Challenges and Opportunities for
Continued Growth in Mongolia
Randolph S. Koppa
President Trade and Development Bank of Mongolia
Mongolian Investment Summit Nov. 19, 2013

2. PATHWAY
• Review of past four years investment and
development
• Current investment issues being addressed
• Near term opportunities and needs
• Attracting the needed foreign capital

3. OCTOBER 2009: A PATH IS CHOSEN
• Signing of OT investment agreement
• Boost in Foreign investor sentiment
• Kick off of investment boom
• Race to the Future

7. TOTAL FINANCING INVESTMENT NEEDS AND
OPPORTUNITIES 2010 TO 2015
• Mine Development $ 12 bn. to $ 20 bn.
• Infrastructure $ 8 bn. to $ 12 bn.
• Urban development $ 6 bn. to $ 8 bn.
• Agriculture $ 1 bn. to $ 2 bn.
• Industry and Commerce $ 15 bn. to $ 20 bn.
• Environment $ 1 bn. to $ 2 bn.
• Social $ 1 bn. to $ 2 bn.
• Financial Sector $ 1 bn. to $ 2 bn.
Totals: $ 45 bn. to $ 68 bn.

8. POTENTIAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 2010-2015
• FDI $ 11 bn. to $ 14 bn.
• Domestic sources $ 12 bn. to $ 18 bn.
• Sovereign Borrowing $ 3 bn. to $ 6 bn.
• Foreign Capital Markets $ 11 bn. to $ 16 bn.
• IFI & Foreign bank Loans $ 7 bn. to $ 12 bn.
• Donors and NGOs $ 1 bn. to $ 2 bn.
Total $ 45 bn. to $ 68 bn.

9. 12.7
5.5
2.1
6
3.5
0.5
4
2.2
12.5
3.9
10
4.5
1.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
FDI Domestic Sovereign Foreign
Cap.Mkts.
Foreign
Loans
Donors
Received Pending To go
PROGRESS TO DATE

10. GROWING GDP, DRIVEN BY INVESTMENT IN MINING
GDP GrowthGDP Growth
(US$ bn)
Source: National Statistical Office of Mongolia
5.17
4.57
6.69
7.94
10.02
7.41
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 3Q2013
GDP

11. POVERTY RATE DECLINING

12. NOT TO SOUND CLICHED, BUT…
• “If everything is so good, why am I feeling so
bad?”
• “The glass is half empty”
• “What have you done for me lately?”

13. EXPORT REVENUES EASE AS MARKET SOFTENS
2.5
1.9
2.9
4.8
4.4
3.1
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 3Q2013
Source: Bank of Mongolia, National Statistical Office of Mongolia; exchange rate of USD : MNT = 1655.44
Export SectorExport Sector

14. FOREIGN INVESTMENT DROPPING
Foreign Direct InvestmentForeign Direct Investment
Source: Bank of Mongolia, National Statistical Office of Mongolia; exchange rate of USD : MNT = 1655.44
0.8
1.0
1.6
5.3
3.8
2.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 3Q2013

15. CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT

16. CAUSES OF MONGOLIA’S MALAISE
• Early growth based on ramp up of coking coal
production and OT build up. Infrastructure
lagged.
• China’s GDP growth slowdown from 10% levels to
7% levels changed commodity market dynamics.
• Populist and nationalistic rhetoric during
elections of 2012 and 2013 seemed to precipitate
some unfortunate legislative and other
government decisions seen as unfriendly to
investors, notably as related to OT.

17. AN A380 FILLED WITH US 100 DOLLAR BILLS

18. WILL IT BE THIS?

19. OR WILL THIS FOIL THE TAKE OFF?

20. MONGOLIA LOSES MARKET LEAD

21. CHINA DEMAND SLOWDOWN IMPACTS
COMMODITY COUNTRIES GDPs BY 2025

22. CHINA CAR PRODUCTION BOOMING

23. ELECTIONS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

24. FIVE INTERDEPENDENT ISSUES

25. A FORM COPIED IN NATURE

26. WITH REGENERATIVE CAPABILITY

27. POWER
• Electricity, a 1500 MW need
• 20 % from clean renewable
energy sources such as wind
• USD 1.2 billion CHP5
proceeding on PPP BOT
• USD 2 billion of new projects in
development
• USD 2 billion more required in
near future

28. LIQUID ENERGY
• Need to reduce reliance on imports
• Mongolia has crude oil reserves and growing
production
• Coal to liquid and coal to gas projects in
development
• Coal shale has strong potential
• Potential to export energy or clean energy fuels
• Possible need USD 6 billion

29. LINKING TO THE MARKET
Size 1,040 km
Investment US$ 5.0 bn
Time frame 2012-2016

30. RAIL TRANSPORT
• Important 260 km link TT to border to be
completed end 2015. USD 200 million from
Chinggis Bond as seed money.
• Feasibility studies for link for TT to Sainshand and
north to Chinese and Russian connections
proceeding
• Aspire Mines in NW Mongolia seeking USD 1.3
billion for a 547 km 22mtpa line from Ovoot to
Erdenet.
• Total funding needs: USD 6 to 8 billion

31. ROAD
• ADB funded link to Chinese border
completed
• Chinggis Bond proceeds: USD 380
million applied to rural roads
• Chinggis Bond proceeds: USD 200
million for urban streets, mainly in
UB
• USD 1 to USD 2 billion more needed

32. WATER
• Perhaps THE critical resource
• Although more is being discovered, potential
shortages loom for UB and the South Gobi
mine areas.
• Transmission lines from northern rivers being
pursued as an option
• Water efficient management system
investments needed.
• Needs potentially USD 1 to 2 billion

33. URBAN DEVELOPMENT
• Significant construction of housing in the past four
years
• 37054 new units completed in UB alone
• Estimated investment over USD 4 billion
• Approximately 30000 units and construction
• However, 184,000, or 60 % of households in UB are in
ger areas without connected heat and utilities.
• USD 7 billion of housing development still needed in
UB, plus USD 3 billion in other towns next five years;
further USD 10 billion will still be needed beyond that.

34. INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT
• There has been roundly USD 5 billion in
industrial, agribusiness and commercial sector
funding of capital expenditure and expansion
but much more is needed such as for building
materials, and value added agri products.
• A major new area is the value added minerals
processing such as planned at Sainshand
• Coal to liquid and gas provides another major
initiative for import substitution and export.
• Potential need is from USD 15 to 25 billion.

35. SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL
• Investment lagging behind in medical and
educational.
• Environmental protection and green
development in energy, mining and industry is
a priority.
• Funding potential of USD 5 billion

36. FINANCIAL SECTOR
• USD 1.5 billion in outside funding attracted
• USD 5 billion may be needed in outside
funding of Tier 1 and Tier 2 capital, loan
growth, and mortgage backed securities

37. MINING SECTOR
• Over USD 10 billion in FDI past four years
• Considerable debt also raised
• OT phase 2 will be USD 4 to USD 5 billion
• Unlimited potential depending on markets
and investment climate
• Estimated range from USD 15 to USD 25 billion

38. TOTAL POTENTIAL INVESTMENT NEEDS AND
OPPORTUNITIES 2014 THROUGH 2018
• Mining USD 15 bn. to USD 25 bn.
• Infrastructure USD 11 bn. to USD 17 bn.
• Urban Development USD 7 bn. to USD 10 bn.
• Business Capex USD 15 bn. to USD 25 bn.
• Social & Environmental USD 3 bn. to USD 5 bn.
• FinancialSector USD 4 bn. to USD 5 bn.
• Totals USD 55 bn. to USD 87 bn.

39. POTENTIAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 2014 THROUGH 2018
• FDI USD 14 bn. to USD 24 bn.
• Domestic sources USD 19 bn. to USD 28 bn.
• Sovereign Borrowing USD 4 bn. to USD 6 bn.
• Foreign Capital Markets USD 8 bn. to USD 13 bn.
• IFI & Foreign bank Loans USD 9 bn. to USD 14 bn.
• Donors and NGOs USD 1 bn. to USD 2 bn.
• Totals USD 55 bn. to USD 87 bn.

40. DOMESTIC SOURCES NOT ENOUGH
• Budget capital spending to 20% of GDP
• Domestic government depth to 20% in GDP
• Bank CAPEX lending to 25% of total loans
• Business CAPEX investment grows to 20% of GDP
• MSE market cap grows from 12 % to 40 % of bank
debt as in other emerging markets
• Domestic debt market grows as pension and
other funds accumulate reserves

41. FOREIGN PARTICIPATION CRITICAL
• Domestic sources are limited by debt to GDP and other
norms and financial sector capacity.
• Foreign investors and lenders want not only good
prospects, but stable investment laws, sound fiscal and
monetary management, a strengthening legal
environment, and continuous demonstration of open
and fair treatment by the government.
• Trust still needs to be restored.
• Government pro private sector and pro foreign
investment policies and strategies being propounded

42. CONCLUSION
• Mongolia is facing a new reality
• Slower growth in China is a given
• A new strategy requires developing both
mining and industrialization in parallel
• Funding needs thus are higher
• Foreign investments from all neighbors is key
• The third neighbor policy for investment must
be affirmed

43. BACK TO THE FUTURE
• Need to go back to get to the future
• Back to a strong third neighbor policy
• We have to get back on track
• We have to go Back to the Future

45. Thank you for your attention!
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