The Korayk Upland glaciers: new data after 60 years. Presented by Maria Ananicheva at the "Perth II: Global Change and the World's Mountains" conference in Perth, Scotland in September 2010.

1. The Korayk Upland
glaciers:
new data after 60
years
Maria D. Ananicheva, Gregory
Kapustin,
Institute of Geography RAS,
Moscow, Russia Perth, September 2010

2. Some general evidence
Koryak Highlands
Located:
on the North-east Asia, within the territory of
Chukotka and Kamchatka autonimic districts,
on the coast of the Bering Sea between the
Gulf of Anadyr and Kamchatka Peninsula.
Consists of short ridges, ridges of medium
height.
The length of the upland is 880 km, width up
to 270 km. Height varies from 600 to 1800 m
(The highest point is 2,562 m - Ledyanaya
Mountain).
The main ranges: Vetveysky (height 1,443 m),
Pahachinsky (to 1715 m), Pylginsky (up to
1355 m), jutting into the sea by Gauvin
peninsula , Olyutorskij (up to 1558 m),
forming Oljutor Peninsula Neprokhodimy (up
to 1450 m), Koyverlansky (up to 1062 m),
South Mainsky (1265 m), resting into Mainsky
Plateau (Parhanoy Plateau), Snegovoy and
Ukaelyat ranges (glaciated).

3. Data about glaciers of Koryak Upland
Modern glaciers were discovered by geologists in the late
1930's;
• In 1955 A.P. Vaskovsky published the results of
laboratory calculations of glaciers, based on aerial
photography, he mentioned 480 glaciers and snow
patches of the area ~ 185 sq.km.
3 years later, M. I. Malyh was there and he counted 282
glaciers in the area of 60-63 ° N and 166.5-176.5 E,
among them - the valley morphological type and a
variety of corries (circus type).
N.M. Svatkov conducted field work on 3 glaciers of the
Koryak Upland in 1961, he was the main author of
Koryak Upland Volume of the Inventory of Glaciers of
the USSR
Inventory of the glaciers of the USSR, Volume 20, Part 1,
Koryak Upland:
At the time of its publication the Koryak Upland contains
715 glaciers (author NM Svatkov). Dated by 1950
Glaciers were indentified by topographic maps, compiled
mainly basing on aerial photo surveys.
Why is such a big difference in the estimates?

4. Researchers came in this area only in 1990-s. Various geomorphological objects
have been studied, in particular rock glaciers (Galanin, 2005). By Galanin, the
number of REAL glaciers is close to what is indicated in the end of 1950s by M.I.
Malykh (282 glaciers of 180 km2 in area )
•
Regions of rock glaciers of different types and
glaciers spreading over north-eastern Asia (Galanin,
2005)
1 – regions of spreading active and dead rock glaciers,
mainly near-slope type;
2 – regions of contemporary glaciarization according to
other researchers;
3 – main watershed and the boundary between Arctic
and Pacific glaciologic basins;
4 – areas of discovery and field studies of rock glaciers:
Б – Bahapchinskie Mountains; И – Iskaten Range; К –
Koni Peninsular; М – Meynypelgynsky Mountain Massif;
П – Provedenskiy Mountain Massif; Пе – Pekulney
Range; Х – Khasynsky Range; Ки – Kilgansky Mountain
Massif;

5. I. Determining the present state of Koryak
glaciers
The vastness of Koryak
Upland, the
requirements of high
resolution and coverage
of surveys, as well as
time, suitable for
shooting glaciers
defined our choice:
We used satellite data
2002_08_15ASTER 2002 -ASTER
Landsat, and Terra /
Aqua (EOS AM-1) and
ASTER (Advanced
Spaceborne Thermal
Emission and Reflection
Radiometer).
Both individual images,
and their mosaics were
studied 2008_07_29Landsat 2008- Landsat

6. 3D surfaces: glaciers of Koryak Upland
3d_1Landsat
For 3 D we used SRTM30
We have found only 237 glaciers.
Considered space surveys of the same plots in different years, but in the same season.
Season is from late July to early September. There is this time when the most heat-
resistant snow and ice bodies could be revealed in those areas.
If at least one of the periods of observation any traces of glaciers were found, it means
that a glacier existed in this place… or do not exist or disappeared (melted), and all
subsequent formations are just snow patches.

7. Why it was found ~3 times lesser glaciers in the Koryak Upland (2003)
than - by N.V. Svatkov (in the Inventory of glaciers) ?
• According to Galanin A.A. (2005) When the Inventory of glaciers were
rock glaciers are located in prepared many snow patches were
GLACIER zone, so it is easy to take taken for glaciers..Since that time they
them for glaciers melt out …
Climate is changing, however no
• There is no data in the USSR
intensive warming here..
Glacier Inventory about rock
glaciers, so it is impossible to
The question remains open…
indentify their locations

8. Absolute and relative reduction (S )of Koryak glaciers:
Number of Are a of glaciers by the Are of glaciers, Mean Mean
glaciers USSR Glacier Inventory, 2003, km2 absolute relative
1950-EPS, S, km2 S, %
km2
243 176.6 54.4 0.56 66.5
The total retreat of the glaciers of this region varied from 40 to 69 % as
compared to aerial photography surveys (1950).
This is the most intense reduction among the studied glacier systems of the
Russian Subarctic.
However we can’t exclude errors of the area meanings on the date of Inventory
creation, having in mind “exaggeration” of glacier number by account of rock
glaciers and snow patches.
Therefore the assessment of area reduction about 66% we consider preliminary
and required checking.
N.M. Svatkov personally studied a number of glaciers around peak Ledyanaya
in situ (Svatkov, 1965, Svatkov, Tsvetkov, 1965). For those glaciers the
reduction is 40-50% compared with 2003. It is never the less, a large value.

9. The analysis of the retreat (reduction in area) of Koryak glaciers
by groups with the same morphological type and the same aspect
Mean relative dS (%) dependence of Morphological type
Maximal reduction is attributed to the
80 glaciers of N and NE aspects.
70
The greatest warming within Russia
ocurred along the latitudinal belt 55-62º
60
N, to the north and south the temperature
50
increase is not so pronounced but takes
40 place (Shmakin, 2009)
30 Relative retreat of glaciers by aspect,%
.
Относительное отступание ледников по экспозици
20
В
80,00
10
70,00
60,00
0
Asymmetric Valley Corrie-valley Compound Corrie Corry- Near-slope Cirque Hanging ЮЗ З
50,00
Corrie Hanging
40,00
Linear trends for the recent 30 years: from 1.5°С/30 yr to 0.2°С/30 yr, both 30,00
20,00
for Тyear, and for Тsum air temperature. 10,00
0,00
The trends indicates long lasting warming in this region, but catastrophic scale
Ю С
of glacier reduction can be explained only by sharp decrease of precipitation
(or errors in the Inventory values).
The total PCP records (from weather stations) for the recent 30 years indeed
shows negative trends here: from - 60 до - 250 mm/ 30 years. СЗ СВ

10. Russian Mountain Glacier system Modern Period from dS, km2 dS, %
area, km 2 to
SubArctic Glaciers
Change by area (dS)
Suntar-Khayata 162.2 1945-2003 -37.2 19.3
Mountains
Chersky Range 113.0 1970-2003 -43 28
Byrranga 24.4 1967-2003 -5 16.5
Mountains
Korayk Upland 37.3 1950-2003 -109 66.5

11. II. The evolution of the Koryak glaciers in the near future
• Significant reduction of Koryak glaciers We allocated 8 glacier
motivated us to estimate the near future systems for projection
evolution of GLACIER SYSTEMS of this of glacier development:
region. 1 Basin Machevna- Apuka
• The term “glacier system” is considered as a set of rivers
glaciers united by their common links with the 2 Basin of Anivayam River
environment: the same mountain system or – Machevana Bay
archipelago location and similar atmospheric
circulation patterns. The glaciers are related to each 3 Glacier system of Pikas –
other usually by parallel links from atmospheric inputs Uekalyat ranges
and topographical forms to hydrological and
4 Glaciers of Vatyna River
topographical outputs, and demonstrate common
basin
spatial regularities of glacier regime and other
features. 5 Glaciers of Snegovoy-
Uekalyat ranhes
• The method was published in ( Ananicheva, 6 Basin of Olyutorskiy Inlet
2009), but we develop it from application to
application onto various mountain regions 7 Basin of Apukavayam
• We used AOGCM – ECHAM5 (B1) as a River
climate development scenario 8 Basin of Korf Inlet

12. 2.1 Balance profiles constructed by climate data and modelled (upper
points) data for glacier systems of Koryakia: baseline period and
projected by the model ECHAM5, B1
Profiles of А (ablation) - by Тsum, depending on a set of ice
Glacier system of Korf Inlet
facies ( cold or warm glaciers).
6000
Тsum at low levels – by weather stations, lapse rate of Тsum
= from 0,4°С до 0,6°С/100 м 5000
For upper levels – by distant stations and lapse rate close to
4000
dry-adiabatic (0,74°С/100m) depending on elevation and
A
climate dryness. C
А, С мм
3000 A
pr
Into Тsum we introduced the correction on cooling of air by C
pr
glacier surface (Tg for each elevation interval of the system 2000
by formula Tg = 0.85Tng – 1.2 (Davidovich, Ananicheva,
1000
1996).
Ablation was calculated by empiric formula: 0
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
А = 1.33 (Тsum + 9,66)2,83 (Krenke, 1982) Elevation, m asl
Profiles of С (accumulation) - by А=С at mean for a glacier system ELA. Lower ELA – by observed P and coefficient of
concentration of snow on glaciers (Kc)
There is no direct data about P on high levels. We used modeled values of P, calculated by ( Krenke, Mikhailov, 1986)
specially for this region.
Кс depends on the glacier size and has constant meaning for various morphological types of prevailing glaciers in the
system ~ 1.4-1.8

13. Glacier system of Korf Inlet Glacier system of Pikas-Uekalyat ranges
2300
1150
1900
Elevation, m asl
Elevation, m asl
950
1500
750
1100
550
350 700
150 300
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Area, sq. km Area of ice, sq. km
2. 2 Hypsographic schemes for each system ---
to understand ice distribution after the reduction of glaciers in the system
Method of hypsographic schemes construction: summarizing areas by elevation
interval ( 200 m) for entire number of glaciers of the given system with use of
topo-maps, satellite images, DEM, geometric schemes of glaciers in the USSR
Glacier Inventory.
For Koryak Upland we used already NEW data, obtained by Landsat and
ASTER

14. Assessment of the evolution of Koryak Upland glacier
systems up to 2049-60.
In given work we used a GCM of Max Plank Institute - ECHAM5 (B1)
as the climatic scenario
The resolution of the model is 2.1°х2.1° in geographic coordinates,
that is up to now the most frequent grid-net of model outputs for
AOGCM (Atmosphere-Ocean Global Circulation Model).
These outputs are presented on the site:
http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/wissenschaft/modelle/echam/echam5.html
Among the outputs important for mass balance of glacier systems
parameters – mean monthly ( summer) temperature – Тsum-pr and
total precipitation P tot-pr (projected) were applied.

15. Model values:
Тsum : from 6,7 to 10,6°С
(in northern regions the temperature will be higher than in the south of Korak Upland),
P tot-pr: 400 - 700 mm/yr
(maximum- in the center and east of the region).
Ледниковая система - бассейн залива Корфа
2.3 The elevation of the glacier 1600
termini (Нend), necessary for 1400
calculation of area change 1200
under any scenario of climate 1000
A
Высота, м
development, - by the formula, 800
C
Apr
deriving from the hypotheses of 600
Cpr
Gether-Kurowsky about twice ELApr
400
more retreat of glacier terminus
200
as compared to its ELA:
0
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Hends = ELAp – (Hhigh – ELA) = 2 ELA - Hhigh А, С мм
The share of reduction of the area by elevation between the termini level and upper points of the glacial
system ----by empirical data
For Koryak glacier systems morphological type glaciers - cars and different subtypes of cars are
characteristic,
we analyzed the results of repeated surveys by altitude for 3 glaciers- corries (Polar Urals) (Tsvetkov, 2006).
The average difference between the areas before and after warming represents a curve of distribution of ice
under glaciers retreat, which is parameterized by parabola, shifted to the top (of the glacier system).

16. Change the basic characteristics of the Koryak glacier systems to
2040-2069 (ECHAM5, B1)
Glacier system The shift of The elevation range Glaciated area, Ablation and Balance, cm yr-1 ***
Нela of the glacier km2, % accumulation at the
(from base system, m ELA, mm
to projected
period),
Baseline Projecti Baseline Projection Baseline Projecti Baseline Projecti
m ** on period, Period, km2 period on period on
period period km2 (%) period period
Koryak Upland
Pikas’-Uekalyat 970 33,7 33.7(100) 1500 2050 -19.58 399.0
ranges -200* 1200
Uekalyat – Snegovoy 960 18,9 9.04(47.6) 1750 2250 2.36 106.6
ranges 343 600
Vatyna River basin -56 720 880 11,3 11.2 (99.2) 710 1450 75.04 111.8
Anivayam- Machevna 500 3,9 2.97 (76.1) 2400 2650 5.50 6.25
rivers basin 83 120
Machevna- Apuka 880 1.92 (99.5) 1850 2100 5.45 -27.13
rivers basin 142 1000 1,93
Apukavayam River 980 15,8 15.8(100) 620 1480 30.37 14.5
basin -225 1320
Oyutorsky Inlet basin 1070 6,8 2.8 (41.2) 720 2920 12.19 0.35
293 500
Basin of Korf Inlet 108 740 520 12,22 10.1(55.8) 460 2310 17.51 13.8
*- minus means descend of the ELA
** - baseline period for climate (1960-91), the glaciers’ state is determined by space images on 2003
*** - balance was calculated as a difference between ablation and accumulation
Totally, the area loss up to 2070 will reach only 17% as compared with baseline period

17. Conclusions
First time since 1950 the area and number of glaciers of Koryak Highlands are defined by satellite
imagery, dated by 2003. Comparison with the Inventory of glaciers of the USSR showed a large
discrepancy, both in a number of glaciers,
Significant retreat can hardly be fully explained by climate change, taking place there. However, the
trend to a decrease in precipitation and increased temperature of the warm period until the notes on
most of the region adjacent to the meteorological stations.
An approach to project the evolution of glaciated mountain systems of Eurasian subarctic is presented.
Despite the rather "warm" scenario in general, we have obtained varied picture of glaciological
characteristics for glacier systems in the region.
Precipitation factor is important, since the Koryak Upland is in the area with low rainfall, the monsoons
do not get there. Aleutian Low, unlike Icelandic Low, does not persist there in the warm half of a year.
Some (2) systems will not be feathered by the reduction of glaciers and their ELA even will fall as a
result of relatively high precipitation; the rest systems (6) will demonstrate the area reduction and the
rise of the ELA as high as 100-400 m.
The overall decrease of glacier area of Koryak Upland will be only 17% of current value.
Small decrease of the area, according to the model ECHAM 5, leads to the conclusion that the results of
the comparison of state of glaciers by the images and Inventory (decrease in area by about 50-70% over
50 years), most likely is related to some errors in determination of areas in the Inventory - their
overestimation due to difficulties of differentiation of snow from an ice surface.
In any case, a small upcoming change can testify that the glaciers already by 2003, had entered a phase
of compliance with the climate.

18. Future plans
Application of an ensemble of models - as the climate scenario,
both for warming and cooling
Estimation of the volume of glaciers in the glacial systems of the near
future:
According to the Inventory of glaciers and the present estimates of
volumes for different types of mountain glaciers it is possible to plot the
relationship between the volume and area in the system by breaking
them into certain parts so as to cover the entire range of projected
systems (excluding the volcanoes).
In case of the ice mass loss in glacier systems (Russian mountain
systems of Sub Arctic)
- to assess the melt runoff and its contribution to sea level rise
Thank you for your attention!