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Introduction to trend research

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With innovation cycles becoming shorter and shorter, the foresight skills become one of the most important in building sustainable brands, businesses and products. Here is a short introduction outlining the ways in which we can systematically think about trends and their impact.

Publicada em: Marketing
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Introduction to trend research

  1. 1. COMMUNICATION 2015 # introduction to trend research S E M I O S E A R C H . L T b l o g : I D E A G R O U P c o m p a n y :
  2. 2. we build brands based on insights, but we build them for the future and not for the present or the past FORESIGHT AND INSIGHTS …
  3. 3. we build brands based on insights, but we build them for the future and not for the present or the past FORESIGHT AND INSIGHTS … … that’s why we need foresight as much as insight
  4. 4. NOW AND FUTURE what we are doing right now is defined by how we see the future and it is seeing through corners that enhances our abilities to achieve more
  5. 5. TREND trends usually do not emerge due to the activities of the people who created them WHO?
  6. 6. TREND there are two types of people involved in the trend creation process WHO?
  7. 7. TREND trend-creators trend-setters
  8. 8. TREND trend-creators trend-setters usually create something new and innovative and stick to it without much digression are people that take up something new and then make it a trend
  9. 9. THE POWER OF A TRENSETTER let’s take an analogy of a video going viral – in most cases trends work the same way
  10. 10. THE POWER OF A TRENSETTER a trendsetter shares the obscure video and the very moment its views start climbing exponentially a video that is yet to become viral lies there in total neglect with a few views up to a couple of years (in some cases more than six)1 2 3and finally this is what we come to know as the viral video
  11. 11. GROUPS poly-social mono-social groups that have more social contacts with other groups that differ from themselves groups that have little social contacts with other groups that differ from themselves TRENDSETTER
  12. 12. GROUPS poly-social mono-social the young, style - conscious, subcultures, artists, celebrities, the wealthy, designers, people in creative industries groups that have little social contacts with other groups that differ from themselves groups that have more social contacts with other groups that differ from themselves TRENDSETTER
  13. 13. GROUPS poly-social mono-social the young, style - conscious, subcultures, artists, celebrities, the wealthy, designers, people in creative industries groups that have little social contacts with other groups that differ from themselves groups that have more social contacts with other groups that differ from themselves showing: curiosity, desire to explore, social influence TRENDSETTER
  14. 14. MINDSET imaginative practical TRENDSETTER vs variety fixationvs independence conformityvs change practicalvs
  15. 15. TREND-SPOTTING GAME we observe how the trendsetters observe trends
  16. 16. CONDITIONS FOR A TREND for a trend to emerge and grow it has to meet certain requirements HOW?
  17. 17. CONDITIONS FOR A TREND observable imitable it is easy to adopt it, there are little entry barriers, it is not extreme it is easy to observe and notice the change or the change elements
  18. 18. only when several different trend-setter groups pick up the trend with a large number of trendsetters embracing the trend in each group different groups taking up related trends from different types of industries group industry number 1 2 3 CONDITIONS FOR A TREND
  19. 19. trend-creators trend-followers trend-setters early-mainstreamers later-mainstreamers laggards anti-innovators trends as any type of innovation have to go through groups of people having different attitudes towards novelties, innovation and change
  20. 20. trend-creators trend-followers trend-setters early-mainstreamers later-mainstreamers laggards anti-innovators only starting following a trend after the early-mainstreamers have hopped in – not adopting anything unless others have open to innovation, but need confirmation from others they have people they look up to and follow and take something up as soon as they see their role-models doing that for them change is a positive thing – they search and look everywhere, adopt and communicate about it innovating in their respective fields, creating trends, but usually not setting them always taking the opposite approach to a trend taking something up only after the later- mainstreamers are in
  21. 21. THREE LEVELS there are three levels on which trends manifest themselves – the levels are distinguished on the basis of possible number of micro-trends that made them up trend research aims to be multi- dimensional as otherwise it risks at mistaking fads for trends or not understanding the real significance of trends or reasons that are driving the change
  22. 22. THREE LEVELS there are three levels on which trends manifest themselves – the levels are distinguished on the basis of possible number of micro-trends that made them up the first level consists of areas that feature most fundamental and long- shifting trends, the last one – the most personal and dynamic trends
  23. 23. THREE LEVELS GENERAL LEVEL PERSONAL LEVEL COLLECTIVE LEVEL POLITICS, ECONOMICS, LEGISLATION, ENVIROMENT CULTURE, SOCIETY, COMMUNICATION, ORGANIZATIONS CONSUMPTION, WELL-BEING, LIFE- STYLE 1 2 3
  24. 24. THREE LEVELS GENERAL LEVEL PERSONAL LEVEL COLLECTIVE LEVEL POLITICS, ECONOMICS, LEGISLATION, ENVIROMENT CULTURE, SOCIETY, COMMUNICATION, ORGANIZATIONS CONSUMPTION, WELL-BEING, LIFE- STYLE 1 2 3 the three levels are inter-related and changes in some of them relate to changes in others
  25. 25. THREE LEVELS GENERAL LEVEL PERSONAL LEVEL COLLECTIVE LEVEL POLITICS, ECONOMICS, LEGISLATION, ENVIROMENT CULTURE, SOCIETY, COMMUNICATION, ORGANIZATIONS CONSUMPTION, WELL-BEING, LIFE- STYLE 1 2 3 the three levels are inter-related and changes in some of them relate to changes in others
  26. 26. just think of the inter-relation between new forms of digital-social communication, social forms of cyber-bullying and new legislation redefining the definition of being liable for certain forms of online communication
  27. 27. REALISTIC SCENARIOS IDEALIST SCENARIOS
  28. 28. REALISTIC SCENARIOS IDEALIST SCENARIOS static dynamic optimistic radical likely, conservative in nature, predictable likely, conservative in nature, predictable overturning beliefs with complete alternative taking into account possible disruptive trends
  29. 29. REALISTIC SCENARIOS IDEALIST SCENARIOS static dynamic optimistic radical likely, conservative in nature, predictable different to existing strategies and codes overturning situation with complete alternative taking into account possible emergent trends WHAT TRENDS HAVE IMPACT ON THESE SCENARIOS?
  30. 30. DIFFERENT WAYS TO ANALYZE TRENDS
  31. 31. expert panels / trend-scouts semiotic / cultural analysis extrapolation / scenario building literature / data analysis scientific statistical analysisfinding themes, theories and expert formulated trends that originate in a specific field – usually a preparatory part for a more expansive trend research project analyzing cultural codes to determine the cultural progression of certain conceptions and understanding and marking potential developments. This entails working with cultural artifacts and texts and performing content analysis. statistical operations that allow to project changes in the future gathering information on emerging trends through pre-recruited panels consumer research analyzing cultural codes to determine the cultural progression of certain conceptions and understanding and marking potential developments. This entails working with cultural artifacts and texts and performing content analysis. constructing how present developments might possibly develop in the future
  32. 32. counter-trend mainstream
  33. 33. counter-trend mainstream peripheral trends
  34. 34. counter-trend mainstream peripheral trends most of the trends start as the reaction to the mainstream and work as ball bouncing back and forth
  35. 35. MACROTREND microtrend microtrend microtrendmicrotrend
  36. 36. MACROTREND microtrend microtrend microtrendmicrotrend try to think of the trends as a network – it the dots are connected, most probably you are stumbling on something important
  37. 37. BACK-TO-THE ROOTS roots rediscovery / simple ingredients heirloom varieties / antique eats open kitchen restaurant green supply chain
  38. 38. HIGH / LOW CULTURE craft beer / beer sommelier reinstating hamburger simple ingredient kitchen pizza revival /gourmet doughnuts
  39. 39. TREND RESEARCH LAYS THE GROUND WORK FOR MEANINGFUL AND CONTINUOUS INNOVATION INNOVATION SPOTTING
  40. 40. REVERSE INNOVATION RESEARCH
  41. 41. REVERSE INNOVATION RESEARCH one way of working with trends is through the lens of business innovations and the actual change in consumers that make it all possible
  42. 42. one way of working with trends is through the lens of business innovations and the actual change in consumers that make it all possible business innovations consumer needs consumer expectations
  43. 43. one way of working with trends is through the lens of business innovations and the actual change in consumers that make it all possible business innovations consumer needs consumer expectations it is reverse, because you don’t start with social change or consumer needs analysis, but with what is actually happening with business/service/product landscape – what new thinking is emerging in different markets – this points you further, i. e. what actually the users are searching for that these businesses are trying to provide 1 2 3
  44. 44. one way of working with trends is through the lens of business innovations and the actual change in consumers that make it all possible business innovations consumer needs consumer expectations what changes are happening internally and externally, how does that affect various stakeholders (employees, management, communities and consumers)? what does that say about the consumer? what specific needs do these innovations address? how is that going to change consumer perceptions and expectations for futre offerings and services
  45. 45. CONFIGURATION OFFERS EXPERIENCE profit model network processes product performance INNOVATIONS product/service ecosystem service channels branding consumers structure innovations might occur in any part of the business: it can be on the visible side, or the internal-facing part of the business. In any case the innovation framework might help identify the occurring changes
  46. 46. CONFIGURATION OFFERS EXPERIENCE profit model network processes product performance INNOVATIONS product/service ecosystem service channels branding consumers -how you make money? -how you connect with others to create value? -how you organize your talent and assets? -what methods you use for your work? structure -how do you develop distinguishing features and functionality? -how do you create complementary products and services? -how you support and amplify the value of your offerings -how do you deliver your offerings to customers and users? -how do you represent your offerings and business? -how do manage customer interactions?
  47. 47. once the innovation becomes applied it is just common sense
  48. 48. SUBSCRIPTION ownership model
  49. 49. SUBSCRIPTION ownership model let’s say we take the subscription model – we can see how lately it has been proliferated across different industries: starting with periodicals, going to software, now even present in hardware
  50. 50. SUBSCRIPTION ownership model let’s say we take the subscription model – we can see how lately it has been proliferated across different industries: starting with periodicals, going to software, now even present in hardware but the rapid adoption of the subscription pricing model became possible only because of the changing attitudes towards ownership and generally – having stuff.
  51. 51. SUBSCRIPTION ownership model let’s say we take the subscription model – we can see how lately it has been proliferated across different industries: starting with periodicals, going to software, now even present in hardware but the rapid adoption of the subscription pricing model became possible only because of the changing attitudes towards ownership and generally – having stuff. and the mindset has started changing due to certain tangible aspects of our lives: the increase in spending power, the speed of innovations, amount of stuff that is possible to keep at home and etc.
  52. 52. SUBSCRIPTION ownership model let’s say we take the subscription model – we can see how lately it has been proliferated across different industries: starting with periodicals, going to software, now even present in hardware but the rapid adoption of the subscription pricing model became possible only because of the changing attitudes towards ownership and generally – having stuff. and the mindset has started changing due to certain tangible aspects of our lives: the increase in spending power, the speed of innovations, amount of stuff that is possible to stuff at home and etc. SO business profit model and product performance innovations have become possible due to changing living conditions and behavioral attitudes – it‘s all connected
  53. 53. CULTURAL ANALYSIS
  54. 54. cultural innovation might bring brand into new territories by allowing them to capitalize on ideological opportunities. But this requires in-depth knowledge of the cultural code dynamics and the possible futures.
  55. 55. RESIDUAL DOMINANT EMERGENT a code is a particular way that configuration of different meaningful elements are prescribed with determined meanings ( as in certain elements denoting craft culture)
  56. 56. RESIDUAL DOMINANT EMERGENT a code is a particular way that configuration of different meaningful elements are prescribed with determined meanings ( as in certain elements denoting craft culture) code can be described as a cultural currency that changes over time – new codes take the central position and push out the old ones
  57. 57. RESIDUAL DOMINANT EMERGENT codes that are regarded as old-fashioned and are less relevant taking into the account the changing cultural landscape the mainstream codes that mark the status-quo interpretation of the phenomenon niche and new codes that propose alternative ways of evaluating / interpreting / decoding cultural phenomenon
  58. 58. EXAMPLE
  59. 59. it is rather easy to notice change in the way certain roles are codified – what is important are not the actors or their role, but the concepts of the hero and man they represent
  60. 60. it is rather easy to notice change in the way certain roles are codified – what is important are not the actors or their role, but the concepts of the hero and man they represent so the first step while working with codes is to identify what is actually changing and what is staying the same
  61. 61. it is rather easy to notice change in the way certain roles are codified – what is important are not the actors or their role, but the concepts of the hero and man they represent so the first step while working with codes is to identify what is actually changing and what is staying the same while using semiotics this entails looking closely at how relationships between different elements change within the stories analyzed: the hero and the organization, the hero and the enemy, the hero and the damsel in distress and etc.
  62. 62. that really interests us, we have to look outside for codes that might influence or have influenced the evolution of our hero THE NEXT STEP as it is the
  63. 63. that really interests us, we have to look outside for codes that might influence or have influenced the evolution of our hero THE NEXT STEP as it is the and by doing this we might trace the overall changes in the hero type: i. e. him working against the system, outside of it, having a different relationship with the one to be saved and all the rest that can not be saved
  64. 64. SUPERHEROES ACTION HEROES HERO ARCHETYPES IN MODERN FICTION DETECTIVE FICTION / MILITARY FICTION IF STUCK think about all the related areas and changes in them that might possibly affect the development of the BOND archetype
  65. 65. sorting out the emergent codes from the residual ones, a trend research might start building future cultural trajectories and scenarios
  66. 66. performance importance brands fulfil certain consumer needs and neglect others. Certain aspects of brand activity have different impact on perceived brand value.
  67. 67. performance importance brands fulfil certain consumer needs and neglect others. Certain aspects of brand activity have different impact on perceived brand value. when brand perform well in certain aspects, the consumer needs are fulfilled and with time become less and less prominent
  68. 68. performance importance brands fulfil certain consumer needs and neglect others. Certain aspects of brand activity have different impact on perceived brand value. when brand perform well in certain aspects, the consumer needs are fulfilled and with time become less and less prominent and then those brand aspects appear here – in the high performance but low importance quadrant
  69. 69. performance importance brands fulfil certain consumer needs and neglect others. Certain aspects of brand activity have different impact on perceived brand value. when brand perform well in certain aspects, the consumer needs are fulfilled and with time become less and less prominent and then those brand aspects appear here – in the high performance but low importance quadrant and this in turn gives rise to new consumer needs that have to be fulfilled for the brands to stay afloat
  70. 70. performance importance brands fulfil certain consumer needs and neglect others. Certain aspects of brand activity have different impact on perceived brand value. when brand perform well in certain aspects, the consumer needs are fulfilled and with time become less and less prominent and then those brand aspects appear here – in the high performance but low importance quadrant and this in turn gives rise to new consumer needs that have to be fulfilled for the brands to stay afloat CONSUMER NEEDS DYNAMICS
  71. 71. as the trends themselves emerge across different fields and areas, within different communities, so the methods that are used to uncover them should be diverse – looking at different aspects of trend landscape and integrating findings in one system
  72. 72. the trick is to start with the most observable changes moving away to most abstract and least tangible areas CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRIORITIES BUSINESS INNOVATIONS EXPERT / PROSUMER OPPINIONS CULTURAL TRENDS
  73. 73. THE LAST STAGE – integrating qualitative and quantitative data and building future scenarios based on it
  74. 74. modern life follow culture product ownership 1950 1980 NOW FUTURE exploring lifestyle experimentation / social taboo product experience individual empowerment creativity self-actualization system / collective problems empathy and cooperation meaningful life buy express yourself participate co-create in network
  75. 75. SIGNS OF CHANGE FUTURE we can already witness change occurring throughout different areas and industries that signal that we are entering into a new era of consumption
  76. 76. the infolust trend is already having some negative consequences as people are starting to suffer from burn out from learning and are seeking meaningful learning patterns or even learning detox INFOLUST TREND CHANGE since knowledge is becoming democratized and people no longer want to listen, but also to share something useful that they have INFOSHARE
  77. 77. learning more to efficiently do a job and become experts in a respective field, enabling an individual to learn LEARNING ORGANIZATION TREND CHANGE being ready to adapt to any situation; open to possibilities and future developments; flat hierarchical structures RESPONSIVE ORGANIZATION
  78. 78. collecting and tracking your own health-data to become a better / healthier person INDIVIDUAL HEALTH TREND CHANGE collecting a network data and working with that to provide better health information and service to individuals HEALTH NETWORK
  79. 79. BRANDS some of the most prominent and successful brands that we know today have become such because of the timely trend adoption – let’s take a look and trends
  80. 80. stay properly hydrated trend vitamin-a-day form follows function sugary drinks and taste CONTEXT: emerging in the market that is saturated with products that offer new and stronger tastes, alarm bells of obesity crisis the rise of the bottled water trend and the thinking that we need to stay properly hydrated throughout the day vitamins can keep you healthy and protected against diseases and illnesses Vitamin water – brand that literally embodied the emergent trends of the time and put them at the very center of its identity design language that ditches the over the top promises and goes for the functional
  81. 81. willpower (working not winning) societal discrimination individual competition EMERGENT COUNTER-CULTURE: turning away from team sports to personal competition, from athletes to people; u using the images of the marginalized groups and athletes emphasizing not the result, but the actual efforts it takes to get somewhere NIKE becoming the brand we know today not by making new and innovative products, but employing counter-cultural communication strategies
  82. 82. community business counter enterprise sustainability back-to-the-land based on the rising critique of the American economic system and its values explicitly stating their position and attitude towards rival corporate players’ actions putting sustainability at the core of the business, instead of parading under its flag reacting to family farm business problems BEN&JERRYS working around numerous related trends that have emerged back in 1980’s and have been greatly affecting businesses since then.
  83. 83. http://coolhunting.com/ http://www.thecoolhunter.net/ http://www.jwtintelligence.com/ http://www.prosumer-report.com/blog/ http://trendcentral.com/ http://trendwatching.com/ http://www.fastcodesign.com/http://trendwolves.com/ http://springwise.com/
  84. 84. NEXT PART COMING SOON wouldliketolearnmore,haveatrend workshopordiveintoyourindustry trends? a n d r i u s . g r i g o r j e v a s @ g r o u p i d e a . l t c o n t a c t m e a t :

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