1. 14 OCT – 18 OCT 2013
W E E K L Y
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P
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Blow by Blow
On
Bullions,
Base metals,
Energy…
WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM
2. MAJOR EVENTS
Rupee gains against dollar, rising equities caused Gold futures at India's Multi
Commodity Exchange to fall close to !% at 28590 per 10 grams in afternoon trade on
Friday while US gold futures fell below $1300 and remained at those levels as a short
term solution to increase debt limits looks likely to be acceptable to Congressional
Republicans in USA.
On Friday morning, USD/INR slipped by 0.50% and touched an intra-day low of 61.24.
With INR likely to remain strong for today's session, Gold prices could come under
pressure.
MCX Gold futures for December delivery fell 0.93% to 28590 and couldn't overcome
the opening price of Rs 28794 as against previous close of Rs 28857 per 10 grams.US
Gold futures for December delivery fell close to 1% at $1284 an ounce at electronic
trading at Comex division of New York Mercantile Exchange.
The World Gold Council expects Indian gold demand to rise to 300 tons in the last
quarter of 2013 on festival demand that could take total demand to 1000 tons.
US WTI Crude Oil futures rose to a high of $103.57 per barrel before settling on
Thursday at $103.01/bbl on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Analysts said that the
congressional Republicans offer to temporarily raise US debt ceiling provided the
White House discusses way out of a fiscal impasse that has closed the government
and unrest in Libya cause by the abduction of Prime Minister by Ali Zeidan and likely
tightening of Oil supplies had impacted market sentiments.
On Wednesday, WTI crude oil has settled at $101.61, the lowest since July 3. Brent
for November settlement climbed $2.74, or 2.5 percent, to $111.78 a barrel on the
London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The volume of all futures traded was 44
percent above the 100-day average. The North Sea crude’s premium over WTI ended
the day at $8.77, the most since June 6. The unexpected gains in Crude Oil were to an
extent likely to be neutralised by rising US crude oil inventories. According to Energy
Information Administration (EIA), US oil inventories rose by 6.8 mn barrels in the
week ended October, higher than expected increase of 1.5 mn barrels. Total U.S.
crude oil inventories stood at 370.5 million barrels as of last week.
Crude Oil rebound
may sustain on
Libyan unrest, US
debt impasse to
hurt.
India Copper
futures weak on
sluggish
economic
growth, Rupee
gains.
Copper may be trading positive on London Metal Exchange (LME) and New York
Mercantile Exchange, however, India copper futures at Multi Commodity Exchange
(MCX) remains bearish on account of gains in Indian Rupee and weak growth
prospects for the Indian economy.
The Economic Outlook Survey by Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and
Industry (FICCI) pointed out that GDP growth is likely to fall to 5% from an earlier
forecast of 6%. It may be recalled that Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council
(PMEAC) had revised downwards India's GDP growth forecast to 5.3% for 2013-14.
Meanwhile, LME Copper prices rose on expected positive China trade data and effort
by US politicians to avoid a debt default. Chaina imports may have risen 7% in
September on a year-on-year basis. The copper market continues to discount the
ongoing pattern of daily LME copper stock declines, even though stock levels have
declined by nearly 24% from their recent peak. Copper has also seen rising open
interest and rising volumes in the face of a noted recent decline in prices. From a
technical perspective, many traders feel that might give additional credence to the
recent slide in prices.
Bears take grip of
India Gold
futures, US Gold
falls on optimism
in debt issue.
3. E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
Oct 13, Day 3 IMF Meetings
Oct 14, All Day Bank Holiday
Oct 15, 6:00pm Empire State Manufacturing Index 8.2 6.3
7:30pm FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
Oct 16, 7:30pm NAHB Housing Market Index 58 58
8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 6.8M
11:30pm
Beige Book
Oct 17, 3:00am FOMC Member George Speaks
6:00pm Unemployment Claims 357K 374K
7:30pm Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 15.4 22.3
8:00pm
Natural Gas Storage 90B
10:15pm
FOMC Member Evans Speaks
10:15pm
FOMC Member George Speaks
Oct 18, 7:30pm
CB Leading Index m/m 0.7% 0.7%
10:00pm
FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks
11:30pm
FOMC Member Evans Speaks
Oct 19, 1:10am FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
4. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
28000 27000 25975 29015 29960 30850
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
46500 44925 42820 48580 50780 53150
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD on its daily charts showed
some correction towards the level of
29750 in starting of the week but could
not hold on higher levels and dragged
down to breach 61.8% retracement
and closed below it. Now, if it sustains
below 28740 then major support is
seen around 27350. On other hand if
some correction is seen then 28750
will act as crucial resistance closing
above which can lead to higher side.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell
on highs for the target of 27350 with
stop loss of 29500.
PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER last week found stiff
resistance around psychological level of
50000 and rebounded towards deeper
support of 46700 and close around it
indicating further bearishness. Now, if it
sustain below 46700 then next support
level is seen around the trendline which
will act as strong support i.e. 45000-
44500.On higher side some correction
may lead it towards the resistance level
of 48050-49250.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell below 46500 for
target of 45000, with stop loss of 48500.
5. C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
6150 5925 5650 6370 6600 6875
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
437.50 425 413.70 450.50 465.10 480
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper on daily charts has been
moving in downward channel pattern
and reversed from the upper band last
week. In support of Comex Copper
weakness, it breached the 61.8%
retracement level of 447 and closed
below it. Strong support is seen near
trend line around 438 below which
bear trend will continue. Closing
above 451 and holding above it can
only indicate some strength.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell
below 6150 for the target of 5860 with stop
loss of 6480.
PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
Crude oil last week showed sideways
to bearish movements and closed
below 50% retracement and also
moved in channel pattern on daily
charts. Now, if it sustains below 6225
then it may test the psychological level
of 6000. On higher side 6480 will act as
important resistance above which
break out of channel pattern on higher
side is exepected.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell
below 437, with stop loss of 451 for the
target of 425.
PIVOT TABLE
