The events and issues surrounding the loss of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 has created a suite of scary and sinister concerns for international travel, mobility, security and risk managers as a result. It is understandable now how and where this incident will influence or change the aviation and travel industries. The issues range from technology deficiencies, crisis management, capable threat sources, news reporting to aviation security and management. These issues will also impact the future of travellers and managers alike. For those charged with the preparation and management of people and assets affected, you have a more complete overview for your analysis and future planning. http://intelligenttravel.com.au/

1. The sinister, scary impact of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370
The sinister, scary impact of
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370!
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The events and issues surrounding the loss of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 has created a suite
of scary and sinister concerns for international travel, mobility, security and risk managers as a
result. Many do not yet understand the full implications this event will have on the world. The
issues range from technology deficiencies, crisis management, capable threat sources, news
reporting to aviation security and management. Also a few new issues we examine here that will
also impact the future of travellers and managers alike. For those charged with the preparation and
management of people and assets affected, this will assist you in your analysis and future
planning. !
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Many more people are now looking at all the associated issues now, some for the first time. What
the world now knows about a number of related issues they once took for granted or simply did not
have the interest in, now concerns them immensely. Rightly so!!
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2. The sinister, scary impact of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370
Technology Deficiencies: Airplanes Vs Smartphones!
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If aeroplanes were cars, most people wouldn't’ buy them. An alarming number of aircraft are 10,
20, 30 years or more old that are still servicing commercial and domestic routes. The technology
available on most aircraft is much more dated than last year’s smartphone technology, including
emergency communications and monitoring systems. Not to mention the lack of international
integration for those that have better, more capable technology solutions. !
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There is a common misperception that aviation technology is evolving at similar rate to commercial
technology as seen in computers, phones, cars, and so on. When in fact, this just isn’t the case at
all. It is not just the aircraft that is dated but also the supporting systems such as radar,
communications, reporting and access to databases as well. While the assumption is that it all
works just fine, when there are no incidents or scandals, it is often not a topic of discussion or
concern until one or more incidents occur and many more become aware of what industry insiders
have been aware of and lobbying to change for some time. !
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Coincidence and Causation: Lag indicators are not future assurances!
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2012 and 2013 were celebrated as two of the safest years in aviation history. The problem with this
fact is that the end result isn’t qualified nor specified as the result of deliberate actions that created
the outcome or if it was just a series of random coincidences the peaked during these times. There
are more airlines, more flights, more destinations, more pilots, and more travellers each and every
year, which is placing significant burden on all the associated elements in different ways, at
different times with vastly different consequences. The reality is, despite recorded incidents and
data, aviation health,safety, security and risk management is not 100% controlled and incidents
and events will and do happen, with often catastrophic results. !
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Airspace Management: World access and 100% monitored?!
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They average layman is under the impression there are super computers tracking every air
movement across the globe and all centrally accessible, verifiable and accurate at any moment in
time. They saw it on their iPhone app or desktop computer through a website so it must be the
same for both commercial and military air traffic control too, right? !
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A growing number of reports and observations have revealed that take off and landing are really
the only closely monitored and interactive stages of domestic and international air movements.
Some locations still have bulletin boards to alert pilots and providers of changes to the airspace on
given days or locations and civil and military systems do not interact or focus upon or even see the
same data. What happens and what is monitored in the hours between take off and landing, is not
that consistent nor is it universal the world over. !
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Australia recently reported significant flaws in their air traffic control standards and systems!
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Reference: Australia’s Air Traffic Control Flaws!
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http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-15/report-finds-major-flaws-in-air-traffic-control-system/
4817578!
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We noted similar issues in an article on Australia’s airspace interoperability shortly before the
official news expose too. !
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Reference: Australian Airspace: Crisis in Waiting!
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http://travelriskmanagementsolutions.com/travel-risk-management/australian-airspace-crisis-in-
waiting!
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3. The sinister, scary impact of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370
The fact remains, people or an incident was able to make a large, modern aircraft with over 200
souls aboard disappear without a trace while the entire world watched on, despite all the current
technology and monitoring available to civil and military agencies. !
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Who’s watching?: NSA and other global overwatch perceptions!
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Many have become agitated and appalled by the Snowden revelations around civil and social
monitoring programs. Everyone therefore believes that everything is monitored at all times and
acted upon. This is not true nor realistic either. If that true, all storms would be reported to the
affected before they struck, murder victims warned of the impending threat and all accidents such
as aircraft crashes would be captured, reported and responded to before the aircraft actually
crashed. !
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Despite what most people and even informed professional believed, many presumably important
activities such as aviation movements are not monitored in real time, at all times and reported or
acted upon in the event of the slightest variation. Even finding data or related information after the
fact can be difficult or impossible. Not to mention that even if there were data on certain events, the
data, source and means of collection would never be made public in the interest of protecting
secrets. !
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Despite apps and desktop/online portals for getting access to airline schedules, tracking flights,
aviation statistics and even in-flight radio transmissions, the volume of data, channels and activity
in a single minute of any day, 24/7 is a staggering number and a long, long way off before there is
anything close to achieving real time, universal monitoring and access of such activities. The bad
guys know this too. !
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Warning Signs: Related, studied, rehearsed or coincidence? !
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Within the first couple of months of 2014 there were already a couple of key events, involving
aviation safety and security that are related to Malaysia Airlines MH370. !
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Ethiopian Airlines Flight 702 was significant not because it involved the alleged hijacking of an
aircraft heading to the EU and a major capital city but because the story was not released by
professional or government agencies and it involved one of the crew as the alleged hijacker. Online
enthusiasts, rank amateurs and other crowdsourced intelligence where responsible for the
identification, reporting and tracking of the incident which in turn fed the international news
community. If not for this happenstance and skilled online community coming together at that
particular time and seeing the incident through until conclusion, it would have just been a single
line news updates online or during the evening news. Disenfranchised crew members also took
many buy surprise as a potential source for misappropriate use of an aircraft. !
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Recently, Etihad flight EY 461 had a concerning chain of events that went unchecked and lacked
adequate risk controls and oversight, placing commercial interests above more practical risk
management principals for both providers and travellers. We noted several oversights and
improvements in an article we wrote on the subject recently. !
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Reference: Etihad Flight EY 461!
http://intelligenttravel.com.au/travel-risk-management/etihad-airways-flight-ey-461-warning-travel-
risk-managers!
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4. The sinister, scary impact of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370
Crisis Management: Planned and learned skill, not part of your promotion entitlement!
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Governments, national carriers, military leaders and many more have collectively and very publicly
been put on show as a result of the Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 with many displaying an
alarming level of unpreparedness, lack of coordination and cultural restrictions that have not faired
well with the international news and affected audience. !
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Catastrophic failures, accidents and random events are not always blamed upon those left to
communicate and coordinate the response but when their actions are inadequate, inconsistent,
suspicious, uncoordinated or just plain random everyone starts to question their involvement in the
tragedy and become less and less accommodating and increasingly hostile towards those who’s
job titles demand they act on behalf of the victims and best interests of all involved. It has become
painfully obvious to the world’s spectators and those tragically affected by the event that most
where neither prepared for such an event nor are they effective in engaging, communicating and
coordinating an event that was not scripted in advance. !
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Global News and Reporting: Random and misleading!
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The quality, accuracy and every changing focus of the news and media interest around the event
has been incredible to say the least. Not because of the lack of details but the random frenetic
change in focus, theory and data used to create and release stories. A perfect example has been a
story titled Malaysia Airlines Flight 370: Runways in Range which is neither accurate nor related to
the event in any effective way. A random selection of runways, in unverified condition, never had a
large commercial aircraft land upon it, has no instrument approach capability, at night, with no
control tower nor on-ground emergency support resources does not qualify as an option for an
aircraft in duress at the time and circumstances of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370. This has been
representative of the hourly conspiracy theories and random topics released by an industry that
they themselves have seen diminish in reach and capability in recent years, part of the reason the
aforementioned group of amateurs providing critical information for the world’s news services
during the Ethiopian Airlines suspected hijacking. !
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Reference: Malaysia Airlines Flight 370: Runways in Range!
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The WNYC Data News team found 634 runways that meet these criteria, spread across 26
different countries, including such far-flung places as!
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<iframe frameborder="0" scrolling ="auto" src="http://project.wnyc.org/runways/" width="100%"
height="720" ></iframe>!
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Airport Security: Hated and loathed by many!
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Despite continued loss of interest, tolerance and funding for airport security since the 9/11 catalyst
it has seen a resurgence as a result of the incident. Most airport security is ineffective against
intelligent, coordinated and capable threat groups with more of the focus and application upon
random, individual acts and highly reactive to yesterday’s threat: which is part of the reason it
frustrates so many. There is also little international consistency between the application and
implementation of aviation security which in turn encourages the seeking out and exploitation of
vulnerable, accessible channels by more capable, international threat groups. !
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The retrospective admissions and revelations that this one flight had so many airport security
anomalies will drive change, innovation and frustration for travellers as a result. !
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5. The sinister, scary impact of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370
Passports: A growing illegal market and utility!
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In much the same way technology has been a very slow improvement in the commercial aviation
space, so too have passports and passport control. Paper books used for international travel in a
world where money and currency interactions, along with electronic identification and verification
takes place in a matter of seconds seem almost laughable but a reality for some time to come as
not all countries and users have the resources or technology for anything more advanced. This
means they can be fraudulently used too.!
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International agencies have for many years tried to raise awareness in the gaps and threats posed
by stolen passports in particular. Coupled with the ever growing attempts to collect valid passports
by illegal and false means, results in a significant number of international travellers or opportunities
to move among the commercial travelling population. The chance of detection is also reduced
when screening measures are not complied with or there are routine and regular lapses in
verification systems. Those that use or exploit these vulnerabilities range from the frightened
fleeing to the deadly en route. !
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Reference: Interpol’s Passport Warning !
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10686319/Interpol-warned-of-danger-
posed-by-stolen-passports.html!
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Successful Plans and Ideas: A catalyst for next generation threats!
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A better prize always attracts a better quality and prepared competitor. So too does the world of
criminal, violent or terror based threats. Training and tactics have always been shared by these
individuals and groups thanks to cultural ties, technology and even institutions where you end up
with a concentration of like minded collaborators. But when any one or more of these groups are
successful and their planning and tactics are then made public, a whole host of capable and
prospective threats are free to pursue similar plans. We have seen this over the past decade, from
the 9/11, Pakistan, Mumbai and Algeria type terrorism attacks that have taken place with each
group learning and improving upon the last. !
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Reference: Algerian and Mumbai Style Terror Attacks: Terrorism!
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http://tony-ridley.com/security/algerian-hostages-and-mumbai-attacks-the-real-threat-of-terrorism-
in-2013!
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Direct Impact and Likely Outcomes of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370!
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Aviation technology will face renewed pressure for modernisation and upgrades. This will put
economic burden on an already pressured industry and will likely drive some providers or services
out of select markets as a result. Governments will also be pressured to regulate and spend in this
area too but inconsistent international results will not close the gap or solve the problem in the next
decade. This gap will remain a key vulnerability for competent and persistent threat groups. !
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Aviation standards and risk metrics will be reviewed in light of the complete disappearance of an
aircraft and the world’s inability to locate it within a timely manner. Some standards will be too
onerous for some providers or markets, further increasing the gap between developed and
emerging economies. No evidence of defect will no longer be considered as evidence of no defects
by regulators and consumers. Buyers and consumers will change their spending habits for what
they see or feel as better indicators for safety, security and risk management. !
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Airspace management changes are needed. Ageing infrastructure, public/private expenditure will
be demanded but with no direct cost recovery means for most. Incidents, whether deliberate or
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6. The sinister, scary impact of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370
accidental will continue to occur as with flight MH370 until effective change is implemented in this
space. Transparency and admissions are likely to precede real change with traditional practices
challenged. !
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Self help monitoring and awareness has already started. Buyers and consumers are now more
suspicious and actively seeking ways they can monitor or self help in the event of routine or
emergency failures. There is little collective trust or faith in the industry, evident in the individual
applications and online portals that are already being utilised or referenced as a means of
consumer transparency in the wake of perceived or government shortfalls or reluctancy to share. A
cottage industry will accelerate in appealing to consumers and providing access to ‘behind the
scenes’ data and information. !
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New trends and tactics for the future threat groups will include one or more areas of exploitation
now publicly divulged in the Malaysia flight MH370 incident. Inspiration and focus will lead to high
end, international, coordinated state/non-state actors considering this now as a viable option for
their cause or campaigns. !
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Crisis management failures will result in institutional lack of faith in Malaysia’s governance,
regulatory bodies and national carrier. While individual failures will result in termination or
replacement, enterprise damage and set backs will have significant economic and confidence
impact upon all those associated or held responsible for the poor management and response to
the event. Malaysian citizens will be influenced in elections and support of public officials that have
demonstrated long term association to a system that enabled the failure of processes and
progress. !
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News capture and reporting will be less credible and become a secondary, unverified source in
related incidents. Social journalism and data sourcing or verification by communities and skilled
specialists will be promoted and utilised over conventional, mainstream mass media channels.
Short, updatable content in various forms will for the bulk of informing and educating lay people on
technical and related issues during high priority or emergency communication events. !
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Airport security will undergo a renewed restructure and focus. Social profiling will again become
justified and more explorative background details sought on travellers such as profession and
affiliations. Air crew will also be subjected to increased screening and verification. Both inbound
and outbound flights will be subject to increased screening for routes into select destinations such
as the US. Inflight security measures will be introduced and commuter comfort decreased due to
enhanced measures. Significant disparity between standards will result and vary from one airline,
location and cultural hub to another. !
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Passports and verifiable databases will be readdressed. Limited measures will be made to upgrade
current formats for identification, with the prospect of a secondary identification document required
by some locations or jurisdictions on top of the boarding pass, passport, visa application and other
already ineffective documentations requirements for capable, resourced criminal and threat
groups. Increased cost will be passed on to providers with longer delays for travellers as systems
try to speak to each other and access data through secure, timely and ever changing and failing
systems. !
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New threats, concerns and controls will emerge once the full specifics of the Malaysia Airlines flight
MH370 emerge and are investigated. Immediate, reactive measures will abound and family and
community groups will unify to apply pressure on those seen to be or identified as responsible.
While public interest and support may wain, online, sustained campaigns will emerge, updating the
general public, news agencies and invested parties. Tactics, lessons learnt and new or improved
solutions to those aspects that didn’t work fully will be refined and practiced by threat groups. A
new generation of aviation, terrorism and related security experts will be borne and contribute to
the incident commentary and the renewed pursuit of preventing or capturing those select
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7. The sinister, scary impact of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370
individuals and groups capable or intent on repeating the fear and tragedy associated with
Malaysia Airlines flight MH370. !
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Conclusion!
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The events and issues surrounding the loss of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 has created a suite
of scary and sinister concerns for international travel, mobility, security and risk managers as a
result. It is understandable now how and where this incident will influence or change the aviation
and travel industries. The issues range from technology deficiencies, crisis management, capable
threat sources, news reporting to aviation security and management. These issues will also impact
the future of travellers and managers alike. For those charged with the preparation and
management of people and assets affected, you have a more complete overview for your analysis
and future planning. !
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Tony Ridley, CEO Intelligent Travel
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