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The Future of Work is Very Human


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The Future of Work is Very Human

  1. 1. Tim Leberecht The Future of Work is Very Human The European House-Ambrosetti | Milan, May 3, 2017 @timleberecht
  2. 2. Table of Contents Prologue Part One: “The key drivers shaping the future of work” Part Two: “How to prepare for the human future of work”
  3. 3. Prologue Where do you stand?
  4. 4. A new romantic era? - Emotions over reason -Ambiguity -Volatility Meaning-seeking and making - Artisanship - “Sacred spaces” - Empathy - Focus on individualism - Gaming/VR - Escapism
  5. 5. A new romantic era? - Emotions over reason -Ambiguity -Volatility Meaning-seeking and making - Artisanship - “Sacred spaces” - Empathy - Focus on individualism - Gaming/VR - Escapism
  6. 6. “I don’t want to save the world. I just want to think of the future and not be sad.” Elon Musk
  7. 7. Part One The key drivers shaping the future of work
  8. 8. future of society future of self blockchain VR/AR co-working telecommuting network intelligence big data purpose authenticity health and wellbeing fluid identities aging ed tech privacy platform economy gig economy AI/machine learning algorithms quantification co-living future of organizations
  9. 9. Technology Socio-political trends Environment
  10. 10. Knowledge workers spend about 70% of their waking hours at work. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
  11. 11. Half of world’s wealth is now in the hands of 1% of population. Credit Suisse Report, 2015
  12. 12. Google is worth $370 billion but has only about 55,000 employees—less than a tenth the size of AT&T’s workforce in its heyday [in the 1960s]. Brookings
  13. 13. In 1990, the three biggest companies in Detroit had a market cap of $36bn, revenues of $250bn and 1.2 million employees. In 2014, the three biggest companies in Silicon Valley had a considerably higher market cap ($1.09tn) generated roughly the same revenues ($247bn), but with about 10 times fewer employees (137,000).
  14. 14. Exponential organizations
  15. 15. Exponential organizations
  16. 16. Exponential organizations
  17. 17. Exponential organizations
  18. 18. More people are pursuing higher education, but the real wages of recent college graduates have fallen since 2000. The Atlantic
  19. 19. Across advanced economies, market incomes stagnated or fell for about two- thirds of households in 2005-2014, a period marked by deep recession and slow recovery after the 2008 financial crisis. McKinsey
  20. 20. In the US and the EU, there are 285 million adults who are not in the labor force—and at least 100 million of them would like to work more. Some 30 to 45 percent of the working-age population around the world is underutilized—that is, unemployed, inactive, or underemployed. McKinsey
  21. 21. Almost 75 million youth are officially unemployed. Women represent one of the largest pools of untapped labor: globally, 655 million fewer women are economically active than men. McKinsey
  22. 22. Out of a man’s average 8-hour workday, 2 hours are unpaid; 4.5 are for a woman. Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
  23. 23. “There are a lot of people out there getting paid to do absolutely nothing. There are also a lot of people out there getting paid nothing to do everything.” Scott Santens
  24. 24. More than four billion people, or over half of the world’s population is still offline. About 75% of this offline population is concentrated in 20 countries including Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Tanzania, and is disproportionately rural, low income, elderly, illiterate, and female. McKinsey
  25. 25. Migrants made an absolute contribution to global output of roughly $6.7 trillion, or 9.4% of global GDP in 2015. However, migrant workers, on average, earn wages that are 20 to 30% lower than those of comparable native-born workers. OCED
  26. 26. Richer, college-educated people are working more than they did 30 years ago, particularly when you count time working and answering e-mail at home. The Atlantic
  27. 27. Apart from a short burst between 1996 and 2004, the digital technology revolution actually hasn’t boosted overall productivity. OECD
  28. 28. The total cost of presenteeism to US employers falls anywhere between $150 billion to $250 billion each year, and those costs are on the rise as presenteeism becomes more frequent in tight economic times. Scott Santens
  29. 29. 40% of employers say lack of skills is the main reason for entry-level job vacancies. 60% say that new graduates were not adequately prepared for the world of work. McKinsey
  30. 30. 37% of employees worldwide say their current job does not fully utilize their skills or provide enough challenge. LinkedIn survey
  31. 31. 70% of management teams believe their employees are inspired by their company’s mission. However, only 27% of employees agree. Boston Research / The Economist
  32. 32. Only 30% of employees worldwide are fully engaged at work. Gallup
  33. 33. Work is viewed as least desirable activity. Only being sick in bed ranks lower. London School of Economics
  34. 34. 22% of workers from European Union countries suffer from stress at work. Fourth European Working Conditions Survey
  35. 35. Mental ill health accounts for almost 20% of the burden of disease in the WHO European Region, and mental health problems affect one in four people at some time in life. Six out of the 20 countries with the highest suicide rates in the world are in the European Region. WHO
  36. 36. “Instead of committing suicide, we go to work.” Thomas Bernhard
  37. 37. Artificial intelligence and automation are expected to replace up to 50% of all jobs by 2025. Oxford study
  38. 38. Driverless cars are forecast to make up 75% of all traffic by 2040. New York Times
  39. 39. Robotics is expected to rise from a $15 billion sector now to $67 billion by 2025. Brookings
  40. 40. 4 types of robots Industrial robots Professional service robots Consumer robots Virtual assistants
  41. 41. Inc42
  42. 42. Gartner‘s Emerging Technology Hype-Cycle
  43. 43. 60% of all jobs have at least 30% of activities “that are technically automatable.” On a global scale, the adaptation of automation technologies could affect 50% of the world economy, or 1.2 billion employees and $14.6 trillion in wages. McKinsey
  44. 44. Process work, customer work, and vast swathes of middle management will simply disappear: 50% of occupations today will no longer exist in 2025. CBRE
  45. 45. 2/3 of workers in developing countries will be replaced by robots in the next twenty years. UN
  46. 46. “Automation begets the erosion of skills or the lack of skills in the first place, and this then begets more automation.” William Langewiesche
  47. 47. 41% of respondents have fully implemented or made significant progress in adopting AI technologies in the workforce, yet only 15% of global executives say they are prepared to manage a workforce “with people, robots, and AI working side by side.” Deloitte’s 2017 Human Capital Trends Report
  48. 48. The post-human organization
  49. 49. 66
  50. 50. 68
  51. 51. Man vs. machine Consciousness vs. intelligence
  52. 52. Bedeutung
  53. 53. Photo: Roman Sakovich
  54. 54. Photo: Roman Sakovich
  55. 55. Environment Climate change Resource scarcity
  56. 56. Socio-political trends Under/un-employment/gig economy Skills/job mismatch Mental health Millennials (majority of workforce by 2020) / purpose Gen Z / Fluid identities Diversity Urbanization Overaged societies Ethnic, religious, and political conflicts Migration
  57. 57. Technology Digitilization (digital platforms, collaboration tools, quantification, big data) Internet of Things Telepresence (telecommuting) VR/AR immersive experiences Urban mobility AI and robotics
  58. 58. 76
  59. 59. There will be 13 million wearable devices in the workplaces by 2019. ABI Research
  60. 60. Add Peeple
  61. 61. Add Peeple
  62. 62. 81
  63. 63. Add Peeple
  64. 64. 84
  65. 65. Subjectivity Suffering Mystery Emotion Transcendence Ephemerality Inconsistency SerendipityAmbiguity Unpredictability
  66. 66. Subjectivity Suffering Mystery Emotion Transcendence Ephemerality Inconsistency SerendipityAmbiguity Unpredictability Focus Features
  67. 67. What makes us special? What makes us human? Romance
  68. 68. "Die Welt muss romantisiert werden. So findet man den ursprünglichen Sinn wieder.“ Novalis
  69. 69. "Die Welt muss romantisiert werden. So findet man den ursprünglichen Sinn wieder.“ Novalis
  70. 70. Thank you!
  71. 71. Summary Part One Key drivers: technology, socio-political, and environment AI/automation will change everything Utopian/dystopian scenarios Redefine work and what we consider valuable The Fourth Industrial Revolution Age of disenchantment …and a new romantic era!
  72. 72. Part Two How to prepare for the human future of work …tomorrow
  73. 73. Human work will be 2.33 times more worth than any other economic factor over the next five years. Korn Ferry
  74. 74. Play the Game, Beautifully Waste Time Know Nothing, Tell No One Suffer (a Little) 4 Rules of Enchantment
  75. 75. 1. Play the Game, Beautifully
  76. 76. Credit: Makemoneyinlife.com
  77. 77. Credit: Makemoneyinlife.com Die Welt
  78. 78. Credit: Makemoneyinlife.com Die WeltMIT
  79. 79. Source: Business Insider
  80. 80. The Google Ventures design sprint
  81. 81. Work in the liquid economy Freelancing and contingent work “Soft skills” End of experts Constant re-learning AI/VR/tele commuting Self-organized purpose communities
  82. 82. The end of “professions”? Instead: Portfolio career Skill-based micropreneurs “Don’t become a physician. Become good at empathy.” Internal freelancers? Micro-jobs Example: Cisco
  83. 83. The end of “companies”? Why do companies exist? Low transaction costs / AI will be lower Effective mechanism for cooperation Talent platforms and telework Access to markets and resources Consistency Provider of identity and meaning -> often failing at it; tribes? Provider of structure -> vs. autonomy, flexibility
  84. 84. Museum Ludwig, Cologne
  85. 85. Fordham Observer
  86. 86. YouTube
  87. 87. Chobani/Johannes Arit
  88. 88. Chobani/Johannes Arit
  89. 89. Storm / Fotolia.com / Umweltbundesamt
  90. 90. Storm / Fotolia.com / Umweltbundesamt “What remains scarce is profoundness.” Scott Galloway
  91. 91. FastCo.
  92. 92. 2. Waste Time Eric Pickersgill
  93. 93. Photo: Antoine Geiger
  94. 94. 133 “The opposite of loneliness is not togetherness, it's intimacy.” Richard Bach
  95. 95. 134
  96. 96. 135
  97. 97. 137
  98. 98. Credit: Digital Nomad House
  99. 99. YouTubeNew York Times
  100. 100. “The constant challenge of modern relationships: how to prove more interesting than the other’s smartphone.” Alain de Botton
  101. 101. 145
  102. 102. 3. Know Nothing, Tell No One
  103. 103. 158
  104. 104. 160
  105. 105. Danone
  106. 106. Danone
  107. 107. Virtual Reality
  108. 108. Virtual Reality
  109. 109. “The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn.” Alvin Toffler
  110. 110. To thrive with AI, become better at conversations!
  111. 111. “What’s the nature of leadership but seeing things that others aren’t seeing yet? What’s leadership but using language that cuts to the bone to articulate this unseen vision? What’s leadership but having the courage to say what feels unsayable whether because it’s not popular or too frightening? That’s poetry.” David Whyte
  112. 112. 4. Suffer (a Little)
  113. 113. 180
  114. 114. Ko Sasaki for The New York Times
  115. 115. IB Times
  116. 116. 186
  117. 117. Huffington Post
  118. 118. 191 D. Xygalatas
  119. 119. Harvard Business Review
  120. 120. Officesnapshots.com
  121. 121. Thehustle.co
  122. 122. 196
  123. 123. Don’t just be happy. Bring your full self to work, including negative emotions. Work is emotional labor. It should break your heart. -> Pre-mortem
  124. 124. Play the Game, Beautifully Waste Time Know Nothing, Tell No One Suffer (a Little) 4 Rules of Enchantment
  125. 125. Business Insider
  126. 126. Joe Gebbia and Brian Chesky, Airbnb
  127. 127. Homestyler.com
  128. 128. Journey Map
  129. 129. “89% of companies believes that customer experience will be their primary basis for competition by 2016, versus 36% four years ago.” — Gartner “81% of executives surveyed place the personalized customer experience in their top three priorities for their organization, with 39% reporting it as her top priority.” — Accenture “90% of executives surveyed agreed that customer experience and engagement are objectives of their corporation's digital strategy.” — MIT Sloan / Deloitte “6X more likely to buy with a positive emotional experience, 12x more likely to recommend the company, and 5x more likely to forgive a mistake.” — Temkin Group Source: KPCB, Design in Tech Report 2016 Customer experience matters. Design Matters.
  130. 130. DIRECT COMPETITORS EXPERIENTIAL COMPETITORS The new competitive landscape …and more Framework by Fjord
  131. 131. “Transportation as reliable as running water, everywhere, for everyone. In pursuit of that mission over the past four years, Uber has transformed the fabric of 170 cities around the world – creating the safest way to get around cities, generating over 20,000 jobs a month, lowering DUI incidents, accidents and fatalities, and improving local economies.”
  132. 132. “At Daimler we are committed to excellence. To facilitate, enable, and sustain this commitment, we want to create and live a culture of excellence. This culture is characterized by values the Board of Management discussed and agreed upon: Passion, Respect, Integrity, and Discipline.” – Dieter Zetsche, Chairman of the Board of Management of Daimler AG/Head of Mercedes-Benz Cars
  133. 133. The market is cooling off. According to CrunchBase data, the average funding for a seed-stage company in the US rose in the first half of 2016, from $947,000 in the first six months of 2015 to $1.14 million in 2016. However, total seed funding is down by around $400 to $500 million. The total number of seed rounds is also down, by just over 200. -> Seed investors are becoming more selective.
  134. 134. Beautiful Business Dream big Do good Feel good Feel more
  135. 135. “People will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel.” Maya Angelou
  136. 136. Emotion is the number-one factor in determining loyalty— far more important than the ease or effectiveness of interactions with a company. Forrester
  137. 137. Ephemerality over permanence Uniqueness over scale Ambiguity over clarity Serendipity over predictability Thickness over efficiency Inconsistency over reliability Emotion over reason Danger over data Fluid identities over single narrative Individual over collective Meaning over explanation Subjectivity over objective truth Un-Quantified Self over Quantified Self
  138. 138. Smart Romantic Reacting Wandering Connection Reconnection Dashboard Principles Monitoring Letting go Variety Serendipity Big Data Big Intuition Real-time Pre-emptive Behavioral targeting Distributed presence Conversation (Occasional) silence Transparency Mystery Calculated risk Vulnerability Reliability Ritual Liking Passion User-friendliness Frustration Excellence Significance
  139. 139. The post-human human organization Minimum Viable Humanism Romantic experiences (mystery, intimacy, meaning) Machine Learning PLUS Sentimental Education Beautiful Work Beautiful Organizations
  140. 140. Character Ethos Integrity Acumen Judgment Intuition Spirit Imagination Hope Heart Passion Compassion What machines can’t do
  142. 142. SOCIETY From automation to Basic Income SELF From optimization to Romance ORGANIZATION From efficiency to Beauty Liberation!
  143. 143. Universal Basic Income Redistributes productivity gains Basic needs covered; reduces anxiety Only mothers of young babies and teenagers still in education worked less in pilot tests Additional, taxable income possible Minimizes risk of mass-unemployment Formally values formerly unpaid work
  144. 144. The future of work is very human indeed. The 9-to-5 office worker will be considered a historical aberration. We will need to learn how to engage with AI and integrate it into our organizations and work cultures in a meaningful way. We need a new “sentimental education” (incl. empathy, ethics, philosophy, time literacy, emotional intelligence, etc.) to prepare us for the remaining human work that will reward inherently human skills. We need to devise effective strategies to combat the epidemic spread of loneliness and address mental health issues stemming from losing work as the center of our lives and identities. Work structures will become super-flexible and atomized. Work will become multi-dimensional, allowing multiple identities; commuting between virtual and real world, various workplaces, teams, and projects (and institutional loyalties). Tomorrow’s leaders need to be inspirational conductors, curators, and experience designers rather than traditional managers.
  145. 145. The future of work is very human indeed. Work will be un-employment. Work will be basic income. Work will be romantic. Work will be like football. Work will be theater.
  146. 146. EDUCATION/LEARNING - STE(A)M - Job-applicable - From profession to skills / (micro-jobs) - Entrepreneurship/intrapreneurship - Design Thinking - Art Thinking - Learning on the job - Reskilling - Externships - Role swaps - Coffee trials - Returnships - Counseling - Coaching - Sentimental education - EI - AEI - Experiential learning ORGANIZATIONAL MODELS - Networked organization - Exponential organization - Beautiful organization - Purpose-driven business - Super-flexible organization - Holacracy / role-based - Virtual organizations - Tribes / “gangs” - Clubs - Collectives - Red Teams - Secret societies/leagues - Swarming - Pop-up communities - Micro-jobs - Gig economy - Digital platforms - “Shared autonomy” - Co-working/co-living/co-housing LEADERSHIP - Conversational leadership - Inspiration - Visioning - Improvisation - Empathy - Sentimental education - Humility - Intuition - Poetry NEW HUMANISM - Humanities - Empathy - Imagination - Inspiration - “Beautiful work” - Culture of failure - Culture of compassion - Rituals of separation - EI The Radically Human Work Framework
  147. 147. Immersive experiences Platform revolution AI Gartner
  148. 148. future of society future of self blockchain VR/AR co-working telecommuting network intelligence big data purpose authenticity health and wellbeing fluid identities aging ed tech privacy platform economy gig economy AI/machine learning algorithms quantification co-living future of organizations
  149. 149. Intimacy
  150. 150. Beauty
  151. 151. Solidarity
  152. 152. “To begin, begin.” William Wordsworth
  153. 153. Summary Humanize your purpose, culture, and leadership style Apply the 4 rules of enchantment Become AI’s best friend Explore super-flexible organizational designs Keep an open mind
  154. 154. @timleberecht tim@thebusinessromantic.com www.timleberecht.com Thank you!