US national survey on Iran--CHARTS

1. Conducted on behalf of:
U.S. NATIONAL POLL
REGISTERED VOTERS
SEPTEMBER 2015
September 2-5, 2015
N=2,300 Registered Voters
Margin of Error: +/- 2.0%

2. 2
On behalf of The Israel Project, Olive Tree Strategies is pleased
to present the key findings of its most recent national survey.
The survey was conducted September 2-5, 2015 of a
representative sample of 2,300 adult registered voters. The
respondents were recruited by Survey Sampling International
from its larger probability-based national panel. Responses
were weighted by census division, gender, age, education,
income, race, and 2012 President Obama support.
The survey has a margin of error of ±2.0% at a 95% level of
confidence. Results based on smaller sample sizes – such as
gender or age – have a larger margin of error.

3. POLITICAL LANDSCAPE

4. 4
53%
23%
12%
37%
68%
83%
DEM
(37%)
IND
(30%)
GOP
(32%)
RD WT RD WT RD WT
Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the
right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?
Optimism among the electorate is receding, the drop
tracks with increased focus on security issues and
rising attention to Iran deal.
32%32%32%
28%29%
33%33%31%
35%35%
39%38%
35%35%
31%31%
68% 68% 68%
72%71%
67%67% 69%
65%65%
61%62%
57% 57%
60%
62%
Note: Don’t Know / No Response option added 6/5/2015 and forward
+ Denotes Likely Voters

5. 5
77%
39%
12%
21%
57%
86%
DEM
(37%)
IND
(32%)
GOP
(31%)
Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap Ds
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?
President Obama’s approval had ventured back into
the positive briefly before closing the Iran deal, has
now dropped back to net negative.
42%43%42%
39%39%
41%42%
38%
44%
46%45%
48%
51%50%
47%
44%
56%55%
57%58%58%
56%55%
59%
53%52%51%50%
47%
49%
51%
53%
+ Denotes Likely Voters
Gallup Presidential Approval
9/1/15 – 9/3/15
45% Approve / 51% Disapprove

6. 6
38%
32% 32%30%
35% 33%32% 33% 34%
June 28
2015
July 24
2015
September 5
2015
If the election for President were being held today, for whom would you vote
between the REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE and the DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE?
One-third of the electorate still waiting to be wooed by
a candidate or party. DEMs took a big hit in July,
horserace now showing slight GOP advantage.
DEM
Cand
Lean /
Und / DK
GOP
Cand
DEM
Cand
Lean /
Und / DK
GOP
Cand
DEM
Cand
Lean /
Und / DK
GOP
Cand

7. 7
45%
18%
12%
11%
5%
3%
3%
3%
Security is solidly #2 issue behind economy.
Economic Issues – like taxes, wages,
jobs, unemployment, and spending
DEM IND GOP
Pres
UND
46% 46% 44% 48%
11% 16% 28% 12%
14% 13% 10% 14%
13% 9% 10% 12%
7% 6% 2% 5%
4% 3% 2% 3%
4% 4% 2% 3%
1% 4% 3% 3%
Security Issues – like terrorism, foreign
policy, and border security
Health Care Issues – like the 2010 health
care law, Medicaid, other challenges
Seniors Issues – like Medicare and Social
Security
Education Issues – like school
standards, class sizes, school choice,
and student loans
Women’s Issues – like birth control,
abortion, and equal pay
Energy Issues - like carbon emissions,
cost of electricity/gasoline, or renewables
Other
Now, thinking about your vote, what would you say is the top
set of issues on your mind when you cast your vote for
federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress?

8. 8
44%
37%
32%
37% 35%
43%
34%
45%
41%
33%
53% 55%
58%
55%
52%
44%
52% 53%
56% 54%
Overall Foreign
Policy
Nucl. Neg.
w/Iran
Race
Relations
Iternational
Trade
Climate
Change
Cyber-
security
Health
Care
The
Economy
Relations
w/Israel
Ap Ds
Across nine current issues, the nuclear negotiations
with Iran carry President Obama’s lowest net rating,
followed by relations with Israel.
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing…
Total Other Issues…
-9
Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap Ds
-18 -26 -18 -17 -1 -18 -8 -15 -21
Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap Ds

9. 9
32%
63%
51%
29% 27%
11% 9%
27%
58%
31% 32%
64% 54%
88% 83%
59%
Total DEM Men
(16%)
DEM Women
(20%)
IND Men
(16%)
IND Women
(14%)
GOP Men
(16%)
GOP Women
(17%)
Pres UND
(33%)
37%
72%
59%
32% 31%
13% 11%
34%
55%
23% 28%
61% 52%
86% 81%
52%
44%
80% 74%
39% 38%
13% 11%
39%
53%
19% 23%
58% 56%
87% 86%
56%
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing…
Little shift from topic to topic among GOP, but DEM
base loses enthusiasm on specific security issues.
… on Nuclear Negotiations with Iran?
… on Foreign Policy?
… as President?
Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap DsAp Ap Ds Ds
Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap DsAp Ap Ds Ds
Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap DsAp Ap Ds Ds

10. 10
53%
49%
27%
17%
23%
12%
8% 9%
29%
36%
40%
37%
53% 55% 53%
73%
Israel United
Nations
Turkey Qatar Saudi
Arabia
Palestinian
Authority
Hamas Iran
Fav Unf
Iran is carrying the highest negatives of countries and
groups in the Middle East, Israel seen positively.
Thinking about some organizations and countries that are active in politics and world
affairs, please indicate if you have a Very Favorable, Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat
Unfavorable, or Very Unfavorable opinion of each group or country listed below.
+24 +13
Fav Unf Fav Unf Fav Unf Fav Unf Fav Unf Fav Unf Fav Unf
-13 -20 -30 -43 -45 -62

11. IRAN

12. 12
33%
38%
42% 39% 37%
32%
40% 42% 41% 44%
52%
58%
December 9,
2014
February 16,
2015
June 5, 2015 June 28, 2015 July 24, 2015 September 5,
2015
App Disapp
Mild optimism with regard to President at the start of
negotiations has turned to overwhelming disapproval.
“Strong” disapproval almost doubled.
Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Barack Obama is doing on…
Nuclear Negotiations with Iran?
-7
App Disapp App Disapp App Disapp App Disapp App Disapp
-4 +1 -5 -15 -26
9%
Strong
13%
Strong
13%
Strong
13%
Strong
13%
Strong
24%
Strong
24%
Strong
21%
Strong
28%
Strong
36%
Strong
43%
Strong

13. 13
14% 15% 17%
24% 25%
30% 31%
49%
41% 42%
46%
41%
46% 46%
29%
32% 31%
20% 21%
17% 17%
7%
12%
9% 10%
13%
7% 6%
November 23,
2014
December 9,
2014
February 16,
2015
June 5, 2015 June 28, 2015 July 24, 2015 September 5,
2015
Some Not much Nothing at allA lot
64%
For Comparison…
• 39% heard a lot/some about Boko Haram at the time of the Bring Back Our Girls Campaign
• 84% heard a lot/some about ISIS in June ‘14 before beheadings
• Operation Protective edge hit 74% awareness on July 22, 2014 (36% a lot / 38% some)
• 91% heard a lot/some about the beheadings of Western journalists in early September ’14
• 48% heard a lot/some about Trade Promotion Authority in July 24, 2015
56% 60%
Thinking about recent events, how much have you seen, read, or heard about the
Congressional debate over a deal reached with Iran in regard to their nuclear program and
international sanctions?
70%
Attention to Iran issue at all-time high, intensity
has risen to 31%, doubled in six months.
66% 76% 77%
Trend data (11/14-7/15) referred to “nuclear negotiations with Iran” in place of “Congressional debate over a deal reached with Iran”

14. 14
43% 41% 40%
36%
30%
34%
44%
49%
June 5*
2015
June 28*
2015
July 24
2015
Sept 5
2015
Recently, the United States and five other countries (known as the P5+1) reached a
“framework agreement” with Iran regarding the lifting of economic sanctions on Iran in
exchange for concessions in Iran’s nuclear program.
Based on what you know, do you approve or disapprove of this framework agreement?
App
Electorate opposition to the deal is the reverse of the
optimism seen at the beginning of negotiations.
* Trend language refers to “framework agreement”
Disapp App Disapp App Disapp App Disapp
+13 +7 -4 -13

15. 15
70%
50%
34%
28%
15% 12%
23% 26%
57%
45%
82%
67%
DEM Men
(16%)
DEM Women
(21%)
IND Men
(16%)
IND Women
(14%)
GOP Men
(16%)
GOP Women
(17%)
Recently, the United States and five other countries (known as the P5+1) reached a
“framework agreement” with Iran regarding the lifting of economic sanctions on Iran in
exchange for concessions in Iran’s nuclear program.
Based on what you know, do you approve or disapprove of this framework agreement?
App Disapp
Since June, disapproval has spiked across the board,
greatest increase from GOP women.
74-11 50-12 38-43 28-27 29-61 30-41
* Trend language refers to “framework agreement”
App Disapp App Disapp App Disapp App Disapp App Disapp
* June 5, 2015…

16. 16
28%
24%
31% 28%
51% 52% 54%
58%
June 5*
2015
June 28*
2015
July 24
2015
Sept 5
2015
Please indicate which of these statement you agree with more, even if neither
is exactly right…
Good
Progress
Sense that Iran deal is not “tough enough” also on the
rise. Nearly six-in-ten agree.
* Trend language refers to “framework agreement”
Not
Tough
Enough
Good
Progress
Not
Tough
Enough
Good
Progress
Not
Tough
Enough
Good
Progress
Not
Tough
Enough
[Some people say that] the deal with Iran is good progress and will
limit Iran’s nuclear program.
[Other people say that] the deal with Iran is not tough enough and will
eventually lead to the Iranians getting a nuclear weapon.

17. 17
28%
42%
28%
12%
54%
37%
51%
75%
Total DEM
(37%)
IND
(30%)
GOP
(32%)
Please indicate which of these statement you agree with more, even if neither is exactly right…
Partisan
War
Majority, including majority of INDs, rejects idea that
opposition to deal is about partisan opposition to Pres.
Impt FP
Issue
Partisan
War
Impt FP
Issue
Partisan
War
Impt FP
Issue Partisan
Impt FP
Issue
Opponents of the nuclear deal with Iran are just fighting a partisan war against President
Obama. Republicans in Congress would vote against this deal no matter what was included.
Opponents of the nuclear deal with Iran are weighing in on an important foreign policy issue,
which is their responsibility as our elected leaders. Their concerns need to be addressed to
ensure that the U.S. is making a good decision.
By PartyTotal

18. 18
32%
47%
31%
16%
50%
33%
48%
71%
Total DEM
(37%)
IND
(30%)
GOP
(32%)
Please indicate which of these statement you agree with more, even if neither is exactly right…
Alt. is
War
And, a majority sees prospect for a better deal, rejects
notion that war is only other option.
Alt. is
Better
Deal
Alt. is
War
Alt. is
Better
Deal
Alt. is
War
Alt. is
Better
Deal
Alt. is
War
Alt. is
Better
Deal
Supporters of the nuclear deal with Iran say that the alternative to a deal is war, and avoiding
another war in the Middle East is the most important thing this deal achieves.
Opponents of the nuclear deal with Iran say that the alternative to this deal is a better deal, our
leaders need to take a harder stance and stop Iran from getting the bomb.
By PartyTotal

19. 19
23%
18%
24%
29%
18%
32%
56%
62%
55%
50%
74%
52%
Total DEM
(37%)
IND
(30%)
GOP
(32%)
Approve
Iran Deal
Disapprove
Iran Deal
Some Senators have suggested that they should filibuster the vote on the
nuclear deal with Iran, preventing the Senate from being able to vote on the
deal and effectively stopping the debate and moving the deal forward.
Do you believe that [supporters should filibuster the vote on the deal] or that
[the full Senate should be allowed to vote on the deal]?
Fili-
buster
Majority oppose filibuster. Deal supporters most likely
to oppose, indicating fear of undermining legitimacy.
By PartyTotal
Full
Vote
By Deal
Support
Fili-
buster
Full
Vote
Fili-
buster
Full
Vote
Fili-
buster
Full
Vote
Fili-
buster
Full
Vote
Fili-
buster
Full
Vote

20. 20
37%
33%
37% 40%
32% 33% 34%
29%
Total DEM
(37%)
IND
(30%)
GOP
(32%)
Some supporters of the Iran Deal have suggested that elected officials who are both
Jewish and oppose the nuclear deal with Iran (like Senator Chuck Schumer, the senior
Senator from New York and a Democratic member of the Senate), are opposed
because they are loyal to Israel rather than their responsibilities to the United States.
In your opinion, do you think comments like these constitute anti-Semitism?
Some sense, even among DEMs, that criticism of
Jewish lawmakers has been anti-Semitic.
By PartyTotal
Very /
Smwt
Anti-Sem
Not Very
/ Not
Anti-Sem
Very /
Smwt
Anti-Sem
Not Very
/ Not
Anti-Sem
Very /
Smwt
Anti-Sem
Not Very
/ Not
Anti-Sem
Very /
Smwt
Anti-Sem
Not Very
/ Not
Anti-Sem

21. 21
20%
44%
25%
19%
12% 10% 7%
66%
46%
55%
71%
66%
85%
76%
Total DEM Men
(16%)
DEM Women
(21%)
IND Men
(16%)
IND Women
(14%)
GOP Men
(16%)
GOP Women
(17%)
As you may have heard, one part of the nuclear agreement with Iran allows the Iranians to act as the nuclear
inspectors at their own suspected weapons development site called Parchin. After collecting samples, photographs,
and videos, the Iranians will send this information to the UN inspectors instead of allowing the actual international
inspectors onto their base. Knowing this, do you approve or disapprove of this agreement?
App Dis
Discussion of Parchin self-inspections as reported by
AP eviscerates deal support, even from DEMs.
70-23 50-26 34-57 28-45 15-82 12-67
Trend language refers to “framework agreement”
Initial Iran Deal Approve/Disapprove…
App Dis App Dis
By Party/GenderTotal
App Dis App Dis App Dis App Dis
36-49

22. Nathan Klein
nathan@olivetreestrategies.com