A presentation for Twitter Developer Nest given in Brighton 12 Oct 2010 Discusses the changes to Twitter as it moves into the mainstream and the implications this brings for developers and business owners working on the platform

1. Twitter Going ‘Mainstream’
@timwhitlock
twitblock.org
Featuring questionable trademark infringements

2. “I imagine most users are not going to want to have all
of their Twttr messages published on a public website.”
@arrington, Jul 2006
90 million tweets per day
~1,000 per second
@ev, Oct 2010
http://techcrunch.com/2006/07/15/is-twttr-interesting/

3. Is Twitter ‘mainstream’ yet?
Over 165 million ‘registered’ users
• Active users vs Lurkers
• Dormant / Suspended accounts / Spam / Bots / News feeds?
• Celebrity surges
Facebook’s 500 million are ‘active’ users
• ‘Active’ defined as returning within 30 days
• 50% of users log in each day
• More likely to be human
Better stats, please Twitter!
• We need a clearer picture of the user base
• Do they share more data with advertisers/sponsors?
http://j.mp/newtwitterceo
http://j.mp/fb-stats

4. Damned lies & third party research
21% of Twitter users are ‘active’ *
• Barracuda defined this as 10 tweets, 10 followers, 10 friends
• 99.9% of my followers are ‘active’ by this definition
• - but 22% of my followers haven’t tweeted for over a month
38% of Twitter users have never tweeted **
• Does that mean they have zero value?
• We don’t know enough about the silent majority
84% of statistics are rubbish
• Flawed definitions of user value
• API insufficient for third party studies
• Login stats, please Twitter!
* Barracuda Networks, Mar 2010 - http://j.mp/barracuda-report
**RJ Metrics, Oct 2010 - http://j.mp/rjmetrics-study

5. Participation inequality 1% heavy contributors
The 90-9-1 rule * 9% intermittent
• “90% are lurkers who never contribute”
• “will always be with us” says Neilsen
• So Twitter is ‘normal’?
Twitter’s 90/10 rule **
• “Typical Twitter users contribute rarely” 90%
• “10% of users contribute 90% of content” Lurkers
Qualitative assumptions
• ‘Contribution’ isn’t necessarily synonymous with ‘activity’
• Lurkers are still consumers - assuming they log in
• Only Twitter are in a position to provide the full, clear picture
*Jakob Nielsen, 2006 - http://j.mp/useit-90-9-1
**Harvard study, 2009 - http://j.mp/heil-study

6. What’s to blame for this inequality?
Twitter culture is geeky/complex - it’s a cult
Barrier to contribution is deceptively high
Functionality is distributed around the web
Brand identity is fragmented
Confusing to new users

7. What are Twitter doing about this?
Getting their one billion users*, that is
* http://mashable.com/2010/10/12/biz-stone-evan-williams-twitter/

8. Reclaiming the brand
Increased volume of rules/guidelines
• Avoids brand confusion
• Still more flexible compared to Facebook
• Protects competitive advantage (advertising/analytics)
Think before you name your business
• “tw-” and “twit-” are “generally ok”
• You will have to license use of “twitter-”
Use of “tweet-” has been controversial
• “tweet” and “retweet” are trademarks in UK - failed in USA
• Rules lacks clarity here - Just don’t risk it
Tweet TM
TM
http://j.mp/twitter-tm

9. Owning market leading apps
Acquisition of Atebits
• Tweetie is now the official “Twitter for iPhone” client
• Twitter also own the leading Blackberry client
• and Android
WTF?
http://j.mp/twitter-tweetie

10. Owning market leading apps
Acquisition of Smallthought
• “Analytics dashboard” to launch this quarter
Introduction of t.co
.co • URL shortener company not acquired
Official Tweet button
• Replaced Tweetmeme’s little green button on many sites
http://j.mp/rrw-trendly
http://j.mp/twitter-co

11. #NewTwitter
Drives users to twitter.com
• Do we need desktop clients at all?
• Where’s “Twitter for Mac” and “Twitter for Windows”? *
Desktop clients are still superior products
• TweetDeck / Seesmic appealing to power users
• Notifications, filtering, extensibility, other platforms
The ‘mainstream’ are not power users
• twitter.com can prioritise a feature set for the masses
• Twitter’s position on the desktop is unclear *
* Note: Twitter API team has confirmed to #devnest that twitter for mac is
a ‘side project’ and twitter.com is considered their ‘desktop client’

12. What’s next?
Prepare for privacy problems
• Fine grained permissions for apps
• Make it easier to report a third party
Mockup of Twitter app permissions

13. What’s next?
Lower barriers to contribution
• Support frictionless content curation
• Where’s Twitter’s Like button? (favourites/retweets)
Emphasis on discovery
• “the best way to discover what’s new in your world”
• Capitalise on the lurkers
Consolidate functionality
• App directory (OneForty)
- discovery of apps under the Twitter brand
• Media providers (TwitPic)
- image uploads through twitter.com

14. The important bit
Developers - how does this affect us?

15. Get acquired, or get squashed?
Does your product compete with Twitter?
• Datasift looks superior to Twitter search
• Remember Summize?
The developer ecosystem incubates apps
• But with no guarantees of acquisition
• Is second place an option?
Advantage Twitter
• Can you maintain a competitive edge on their own turf?
• What if they pull a feature your app relies upon?
• e.g. in-stream advertising banned
• e.g. wrapping of URLs disallowed

16. Stop “filling holes”!
Advice from VC Fred Wilson
• “.. the time for filling holes in the Twitter service has come and gone”
• But what are the limits of Twitter’s function/market?
Where are the killer apps?
• $$$ocial gaming
• Verticals, Corporate niches, Discovery, Analytics £
Is your business transferable to other platforms?
• Is Twitter just a springboard?
Is Twitter working for your app?
• or is your app working for Twitter?
Fred Wilson, Apr 2010 http://j.mp/avc-inflection

17. Fin
@timwhitlock
twitblock.org