Some Context for Thinking About
The Future of Smart Disclosure
Tim O’Reilly
O’Reilly Media
Smart Disclosure Summit
March 30, 2012

“The skill of writing is to
create a context in which
other people can think.”
-Edwin Schlossberg

What technology trends tell us
about where smart disclosure
will ultimately take us

Moore’s Law First 10 Years
150.0
112.5
75.0 Gordon Moore
37.5
0
Jan 1, 1970 Jun 25, 1971 Dec 16, 1972 Jun 9, 1974 Dec 1, 1975 May 24, 1977 Nov 15, 1978 May 8, 1980

Moore’s Law with Gov Drag
150.0
112.5
Clay Johnson
Society Gov
75.0
37.5
0
Jan 1, 1970 Jun 25, 1971 Dec 16, 1972 Jun 9, 1974 Dec 1, 1975 May 24, 1977 Nov 15, 1978 May 8, 1980

Gov Vs. Moore 2011
300000000
225000000
150000000
75000000
0
Jan 1, 1970 Dec 16, 1972 Dec 1, 1975 Nov 15, 1978 Oct 30, 1981 Oct 14, 1984 Sep 29, 1987 Sep 13, 1990 Aug 28, 1993 Aug 12, 1996 Jul 28, 1999 Jul 12, 2002 Jun 26, 2005 Jun 10, 2008 May 26, 2

 kayak.com

Government data driving the mapping revolution
 USGS and other survey maps
 Street maps
 Address databases
 ...

GPS: A 21st century platform launched in 1973
 Massive investment for uncertain
return
 Policy decisions can have
enormous impact
 Marketplaces take time to develop,
and go in unexpected directions

Lesson 1
Government is a platform

MapQuest - the counterexample

Lesson 2
It’s still really early.
Choice engines haven’t yet had their
“Google Maps moment”

 Siri

Lesson 3
Seek out commercial partners,
don’t just wait for them to come to you

 Health datapalooza

Lesson 4
Keep data formats simple

Lesson 5
Open data policies matter, because private
parties will try to hoard data and claim it as their own

A device that knows
where I am better than I
do, a knowing assistant
telling me where to go
and how to get there.

An Internet Operating System that Controls Access to Data
An application that depends on
cooperating cloud data services
operating in real time:
- Location
- Search
- Speech recognition
- Live Traffic
- Imagery

Lesson 6
Real-time data will become the norm.
Plan for that future!

“Would you be willing to cross
the street with information that
was five minutes old?”
-Jeff Jonas

Returning to maps...
It’s easy to take the blue dot for granted, but it’s a
wonder of real-time data coordination

 Combining data from multiple sources is critical
– GPS
– Cell tower triangulation
– WiFi signals
– But that’s only the beginning of the sensor revolution

 Uses the accelerometer to note when you’re walking,
running, driving, or stationary
 Wakes up the location sensors every time you’re
stationary for a while
 Logs the location and the length of time you were
there
 Private, encrypted data store on your phone
 A platform enabling private, high quality location and
movement data for location and “quantified self”
fitness apps
 Completely automatic (except to correct locations if
wrong) and “always on”

Lesson 7
Getting privacy rules right is going to be
a matter of thoughtful tradeoffs

The Google Autonomous Vehicle

2005: Seven Miles in Seven Hours

2011: Hundreds of thousands of miles in ordinary traffic

Artificial Intelligence
“the science and engineering
of making intelligent machines”
-John McCarthy, 1956

But it isn’t just better AI
“We don’t have better algorithms. We just have more
data.” - Peter Norvig, Chief Scientist, Google

Human-Computer Symbiosis
“The hope is that, in not too many years, human
brains and computing machines will be coupled
together very tightly, and that the resulting
partnership will think as no human brain has
ever thought and process data in a way not
approached by the information-handling
machines we know today.”
– Licklider, J.C.R., "Man-Computer Symbiosis", IRE
Transactions on Human Factors in Electronics, vol. HFE-1,
4-11, Mar 1960. Eprint

Lesson 8:
Look at intent and outcomes,
not just acquisition of data

It is precisely because of the overlap
between computers and human activity
that all this magic becomes possible

Lesson 9:
Beyond Smart Disclosure:
Feedback Loops and “Algorithmic Regulation”

 credit card fraud detection as an ec

 image of google search for “Smart Disclosure”
 if good ads here, this could work for both search
quality and ad stuff

“Half the money I spend
on advertising is wasted;
the trouble is I don't know
which half.”
- John Wanamaker
(1838-1922)

“Only 1% of healthcare spend now goes to diagnosis.
We need to shift from the idea that you do diagnosis
at the start, followed by treatment, to a cycle of
diagnosis, treatment, diagnosis...as we explore what
works.”
-Pascale Witz, GE Medical Diagnostics

for profit colleges

Lesson 10:
Bad actors will always try to game the system.

Lesson 11:
The secret of algorithmic data systems
is to focus on real time measurement of outcomes

“The legitimate object of government is to do for the
people what needs to be done, but which they cannot,
by individual effort, do at all, or do so well, for
themselves.”
-Abraham Lincoln