My keynote at SxSW Interactive on March 9, 2018. I tackle the job of the entrepreneur to redraw the map, and not to accept the idea that technology will put people out of work rather than creating new kinds of prosperity. I try to provide a call to action to throw off the shackles of the old world and to build a new one. So many companies play defense. Cut costs, watch the competition, follow best practices. Great entrepreneurs like Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk play offense. They see the world with fresh eyes, taking off the blinders that keep companies using technology to make slight improvements to existing products and practices, rather than imagining the world as it could be, given the new capabilities that technology has given us.
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Do More. Do things that were previously impossible!
1. Do More.
Do Things That Were Previously Impossible!
Tim OâReilly
@timoreilly
oreilly.com
wtfeconomy.com
SxSW
March 9, 2018
2. Will there really be nothing left for people to do?
Is there really
nothing left for
humans to do?
3.
4. Dealing with climate change
Rebuilding our infrastructure
Feeding the world
Ending disease
Resettling refugees
Caring for each other
Educating the next generation
Enjoying the fruits of shared prosperity
15. Amazon ran this same play
in cloud computing
ï§Radically lower prices
ï§Create demand for something that didnât really exist yet
ï§Open up Amazonâs platform so others provide more services
ï§Create more demand
17. Michael Mandel on ecommerce vs retail
ï§ Since 2007, hours worked by production and nonsupervisory employees in the digital
sector have risen by 8.5 percent compared to a 3.4 percent increase in the physical
sector.
ï§ The ecommerce sector is adding jobs much faster than the general retail sector is losing
them.
ï§ The ecommerce sector added 355,000 jobs from 2007 to 2016âmore than enough to
compensate for the 51,000 jobs lost in the general retail sector.
ï§ Wage and salary payments to ecommerce workers have increased by almost $18 billion
since 2007, in 2016 dollars. By comparison, real wage and salary payments to workers in
general retail have risen by less than $1 billion over the same period.
http://www.progressivepolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Tech-middle-class-3-9-17b.pdf
21. It is not just technology innovation, but the diffusion
of knowledge through society about how to use new
technology that makes a difference in making us all
richer.
22. Eventually, there were dozens of specialized
machines, and complicated workflows.
But that wasnât all. In addition to inventing new
machines, people had to learn to use them, fix
them, improve them.
Systems were needed for distributing and selling
the wealth of new products.
An educated, prepared workforce is an
ecosystem.
26. âIn order to fully reap the benefits of a changing economyâ
and sustain growth over the long-termâbusinesses will need
to increase the earnings potential of the workers who drive
returns, helping the employee who once operated a machine
learn to program it. They must improve their capacity for
internal training and education to compete for talent in
todayâs economy and fulfill their responsibilities to their
employees.â
Larry Fink,
CEO, Blackrock
27. Values Alert: Structural Changes In the Economy
âIn the 35 years between
their jobs as janitors,
corporations across
America have flocked to a
new management theory:
Focus on core competence
and outsource the rest.â
29. Our digital systems enhance our capabilities with software
and data the way our physical systems use heavy equipment
ï§ Users post 7 billion pieces of content
to Facebook a day.
ï§ Expecting human fact checkers to
catch fake news is like asking workers
to build a modern city with only picks
and shovels.
ï§ At internet scale, we now rely
increasingly on algorithmic systems to
manage what we see and believe.
30. âIâve just invested in an AI startup that will put 30% of call
center workers out of a job.â
(A VC who shall remain nameless)
32. This is what technology wants
âProsperity in human societies is best
understood as the accumulation of
solutions to human problems. We wonât
run out of work until we run out of
problems.â
Nick Hanauer
36. 2. In 2018, we still believe that itâs acceptable for
companies to maximize their profits, regardless
of the social, environmental and human
consequences
38. What the great technology platforms
teach us about the economy and the
future of work
wtfeconomy.com
39. Fitness Landscapes
The way in which genes contribute
to the survival of an organism can
be viewed as a landscape of peaks
and valleys.
Through a series of experiments,
organisms evolve towards fitness
peaks, adapted to a particular
environment, or they die out.
Image source: http://evolution.berkeley.edu/evolibrary/article/side_0_0/complexnovelties_02
40. Fitness landscapes are dynamic
When conditions are stable, a
population chooses one fitness
peak and stays there.
But when conditions change,
populations must migrate to a
new fitness peak.
41. Local Maxima
Once you are on a peak, itâs
hard to get to another one,
even if itâs higher. You have
to go back down. It may be
easier to get to the top if you
are already starting from a
valley floor.
42. Technology also has a fitness landscape
In my career, Iâve watched a
number of migrations to new
peaks, and Iâd like to share with
you some observations about
what happened, and why. And
then weâll talk about some
lessons for companies like
Google, but also for the overall
economy.
Personal
Computer
Big Data
and
AI
Smartphones
Apple
44. This happens in politics as well
Voters are moving away from
the fitness peak of the
neoliberal consensus. We donât
know yet where that new
fitness peak will be, but the
migration is telling us loud and
clear that the economy needs
some fresh thinking.
45.
46. Yes, things are changing.
But one thing doesnât
change.
A successful ecosystem
creates opportunity for
everyone, not just a few.
47. âSociety is demanding that companies, both
public and private, serve a social purpose. To
prosper over time, every company must not
only deliver financial performance, but also
show how it makes a positive contribution to
society. Companies must benefit all of their
stakeholders, including shareholders,
employees, customers, and the communities
in which they operate.â
Larry Fink,
CEO of Blackrock
50. Climate change has
been a classic driver
for the change in
fitness landscapes,
for organisms and for
civilizations.
51. 3. In 2018, too many people still believe
that technology is a magic bullet
fired from the same old gun
52. Death Star Thinking
âWhatâs the lesson too many people take from that first and
most influential episode in the franchise back in 1977? One
incredibly well-placed shot into the thermal exhaust port and
the entire apparatus of our oppression explodes spectacularly.
All we really needed were the plans to the Death Star and a
very talented fighter pilot guided by the truth (âthe Forceâ.)
Never mind that there are countless Death Stars ahead of us
as the Imperial war (and the franchise) continues. That one
glorious victory and the release it provided became the implicit
theory of change.â
Jennifer Pahlka,
Death Star Thinking and Government Reform
Jennifer Pahlka
54. âA business model is the way that
all of the parts of a business work
together to create competitive
advantage and customer value.â
- Dan and Meredith Beam
55. A Business Model Map of Southwest Airlines
Low ticket prices
Short-haul,
point to point routes
No seat assignments
No baggage forwarding
Lean gate and ground crews
Highly paid employees
Flexible union contracts
High level of employee
stock ownership
56. A Business Model Map of Uber
ï§ A magical app that lets drivers
and passengers find each other
in real time
ï§ A networked marketplace of
drivers and passengers
ï§ Augmented workers able to join
the market as and when they
wish
ï§ Managed by algorithm
59. Gradually, then suddenly
1. We are creating new kinds of
partnerships between machines
and humans
2. Artificial Intelligence and
algorithmic systems are
everywhere
3. The world is becoming infused
with the digital
60. We see the same thing with Uber and Lyft
Oxford Internet Institute study:
ï§ 50% more total hours worked
ï§ Higher wages per hour
https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/Uber_Drivers_of_Disruption.pdf
68. Symbiogenesis and the origin of eukaryotic cells:
âspecies form new composite entities by fusion and mergerâ
âNearly all extranuclear genes are derived from
bacteria or other sorts of microbes. In the search for
what genes outside the nucleus really are, I became
more and more aware that they're cohabiting entities,
live beings. Live small cells reside inside the larger
cellsâŠ. different bacteria form consortia that, under
ecological pressures, associate and undergo
metabolic and genetic change such that their tightly
integrated communities result in individuality at a more
complex level of organization. The case in point is the
origin of nucleated (protoctist, animal, fungal, and
plant) cells from bacteriaâŠ. species form new
composite entities by fusion and merger.â
Lynn Margulis
69. Biological symbiosis doesnât stop there
âAll zoology is really ecology. We cannot fully
understand the lives of animals without understanding
our microbes and our symbiosis with themâŠ. When we
look at beetles and elephants, sea urchins and
earthworms, parents and friends, we see individuals,
working their way through life as a bunch of cells in a
single body, driven by a single brain, and operating with
a single genome. This is a pleasant fiction. In fact, we
are legion, each and every one of us. Always a âweâ
and never a âmeâ.... Heed Walt Whitman: âI am large, I
contain multitudes.â
Ed Yong
70. From genes to memes
âLanguage doesnât emerge de novo in each person; it is passed, with little
modification, from generation to generation. We speak the language of our
parents, they spoke the language of their parents, and so on, further and
further back in the past.â
â John Skoyles
71. And you can think of the Internet as the next evolutionary step
72. AI is âthe most serious
threat to the survival of
the human raceâ
Elon Musk
73. The runaway objective function
âEven robots with a seemingly benign
task could indifferently harm us. âLetâs
say you create a self-improving A.I. to
pick strawberries,â Musk said, âand it
gets better and better at picking
strawberries and picks more and more
and it is self-improving, so all it really
wants to do is pick strawberries. So
then it would have all the world be
strawberry fields. Strawberry fields
forever.â No room for human beings.â
Elon Musk, quoted in Vanity Fair
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/03/elon-musk-
billion-dollar-crusade-to-stop-ai-space-x
74.
75.
76. Algorithmic systems have an âobjective functionâ
ï§Uber and Lyft: Passenger pick up time
ï§Google: Relevance
ï§Facebook: Engagement
ï§What is the objective function of our
financial markets?
77. The Equinix NY4 data center,
where trillions of dollars change hands
78. We didnât mean to increase inequality and gut our economy
âThe Social Responsibility of Business Is to
Increase Its Profitsâ
Milton Friedman, 1970
80. âThe art of debugging is
figuring out what you really told
your program to do rather than
what you thought you told it to
do.â
Andrew Singer
Andrew Singer
81. 5. In 2018, we are still trying to revive the old
economy, rather than inventing the future that is
possible now
82. âEconomic Possibilities for Our Grandchildrenâ
The world of his grandchildrenâthe
world of those of us living todayâ
would, âfor the first time . . . be faced
with [mankindâs] real, his permanent
problemâhow to use his freedom
from pressing economic cares, how
to occupy the leisure, which science
and compound interest will have won
for him, to live wisely and agreeably
and well.â
John Maynard Keynes
John Maynard Keynes
85. âIf total US household income of $8.495
trillion were shared by Americaâs 116
million households, each would earn
$73,000, enough for a decent middle-
class life.â
Brian Arthur
86. The fundamental economic question
is no longer how to incentivize production
but how to incentivize fair distribution
of the fruits of increased productivity
Brian Arthur
91. Tim OâReilly
ï§ Founder & CEO, OâReilly Media
ï§ Partner, OâReilly AlphaTech Ventures
ï§ Board member, Code for America
ï§ Co-founder, Maker Media
@timoreilly
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