2. There are 4 stagesin the model
• The Demographic Transition Model attempts to
show how population changes as a country
develops in terms or BR, DR, & pop growth
• The model is divided into four stages.
• The Demographic Transition Model does not take into account migration.
4. The Four Stages
Stage 1
• Birth rate is high
• Death rate is high
• Low natural increase - low total population
Factors
• Children provide security & Labor
• Religious beliefs encourages large families
• poor or inadequate medical care & sanitation
Examples
• Tribal societies in remote areas
5. Stage 1: Pyramid Structure
•Due to high birth rates, the pyramid shape would have a wide
base;
•Due to high death rates, the pyramid would be very short in
height; concave shape indicates low life expectancy.
6. The Four Stages
Stage 2
• Birth rate is high –
• death rate is falling –
• high natural increase (population growth)
Factors
• Birth rates high because of cultural factors
• Advances in medical care and sanitation
Examples
• Niger, Afghanistan
7. Stage 2 : Pyramid Structure
• As death rates fall, the population explosion begins;
• The height of the pyramid grows to reflect the
prevention of more deaths; shape becomes less
concave as life expectancy increases;
• The width of the base remains large due to the
ongoing high birth rates
8. The Four Stages
Stage 3
• Falling birth rate
• Low death rate
• High natural increase
(population growth)
• The “gap” closes, population increase slows down
Factors
• Realization-large families are unnecessary
• Family planning becomes available
• Parents favor material things, not large families,
• Woman become more involved in the workforce
Example
• Malaysia, Mexico
9. Stage 3: Pyramid Structure
• As birth rates begin to be addressed, the base begins to
stabilize and eventually narrow;
• Death rates are low and stabilized, meaning that the
pyramid continues to grow higher.
10. The Four Stages
Stage 4
• Birth rate is low
• Death rate is low
• low natural increase - high total population
• Small “gap” like in stage 1
(Population may be declining)
Example
• USA, France
11. Stage 4: Pyramid Structure
• Birth rates and death rates are low; as fertility continues
to decline, an AGING SOCIETY emerges.
• Pyramid seems to “invert”
12. MEDC vs. LEDC
Note the quick transition to Phase
3 from the explosion of Phase 2
Note the longer time period as
LEDC’s are “trapped” in Phase 2
13. Criticism of DTM
• The model is an over-generalization of the industrialized
European experience
• Industrialization is difficult to achieve for LEDC’s in a
trading system that protects the industries of MEDC’s;
• Model assumes all countries proceed from stage 1-4;
• It ignores variables and exceptions (ie. War, political turmoil)
• The model assumes that reductions in fertility are a
function of increased wealth and industrialization–
• Other factors such as the status of women and other social
development are ignored.