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Demographic Transition
Model
Population increase=
Natural increase + rate of net migration
These changes are analyze in a
Demographic Transition Model
There are 4 stagesin the model
• The Demographic Transition Model attempts to
show how population changes as a country
develops in terms or BR, DR, & pop growth
• The model is divided into four stages.
• The Demographic Transition Model does not take into account migration.
4    demographic transition model
The Four Stages
Stage 1
• Birth rate is high
• Death rate is high
• Low natural increase - low total population
Factors
• Children provide security & Labor
• Religious beliefs encourages large families
• poor or inadequate medical care & sanitation
Examples
• Tribal societies in remote areas
Stage 1: Pyramid Structure
•Due to high birth rates, the pyramid shape would have a wide
base;
•Due to high death rates, the pyramid would be very short in
height; concave shape indicates low life expectancy.
The Four Stages
Stage 2
• Birth rate is high –
• death rate is falling –
• high natural increase (population growth)
Factors
• Birth rates high because of cultural factors
• Advances in medical care and sanitation
Examples
• Niger, Afghanistan
Stage 2 : Pyramid Structure
• As death rates fall, the population explosion begins;
• The height of the pyramid grows to reflect the
prevention of more deaths; shape becomes less
concave as life expectancy increases;
• The width of the base remains large due to the
ongoing high birth rates
The Four Stages
Stage 3
• Falling birth rate
• Low death rate
• High natural increase
(population growth)
• The “gap” closes, population increase slows down
Factors
• Realization-large families are unnecessary
• Family planning becomes available
• Parents favor material things, not large families,
• Woman become more involved in the workforce
Example
• Malaysia, Mexico
Stage 3: Pyramid Structure
• As birth rates begin to be addressed, the base begins to
stabilize and eventually narrow;
• Death rates are low and stabilized, meaning that the
pyramid continues to grow higher.
The Four Stages
Stage 4
• Birth rate is low
• Death rate is low
• low natural increase - high total population
• Small “gap” like in stage 1
(Population may be declining)
Example
• USA, France
Stage 4: Pyramid Structure
• Birth rates and death rates are low; as fertility continues
to decline, an AGING SOCIETY emerges.
• Pyramid seems to “invert”
MEDC vs. LEDC
Note the quick transition to Phase
3 from the explosion of Phase 2
Note the longer time period as
LEDC’s are “trapped” in Phase 2
Criticism of DTM
• The model is an over-generalization of the industrialized
European experience
• Industrialization is difficult to achieve for LEDC’s in a
trading system that protects the industries of MEDC’s;
• Model assumes all countries proceed from stage 1-4;
• It ignores variables and exceptions (ie. War, political turmoil)
• The model assumes that reductions in fertility are a
function of increased wealth and industrialization–
• Other factors such as the status of women and other social
development are ignored.

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4 demographic transition model

  • 1. Demographic Transition Model Population increase= Natural increase + rate of net migration These changes are analyze in a Demographic Transition Model
  • 2. There are 4 stagesin the model • The Demographic Transition Model attempts to show how population changes as a country develops in terms or BR, DR, & pop growth • The model is divided into four stages. • The Demographic Transition Model does not take into account migration.
  • 4. The Four Stages Stage 1 • Birth rate is high • Death rate is high • Low natural increase - low total population Factors • Children provide security & Labor • Religious beliefs encourages large families • poor or inadequate medical care & sanitation Examples • Tribal societies in remote areas
  • 5. Stage 1: Pyramid Structure •Due to high birth rates, the pyramid shape would have a wide base; •Due to high death rates, the pyramid would be very short in height; concave shape indicates low life expectancy.
  • 6. The Four Stages Stage 2 • Birth rate is high – • death rate is falling – • high natural increase (population growth) Factors • Birth rates high because of cultural factors • Advances in medical care and sanitation Examples • Niger, Afghanistan
  • 7. Stage 2 : Pyramid Structure • As death rates fall, the population explosion begins; • The height of the pyramid grows to reflect the prevention of more deaths; shape becomes less concave as life expectancy increases; • The width of the base remains large due to the ongoing high birth rates
  • 8. The Four Stages Stage 3 • Falling birth rate • Low death rate • High natural increase (population growth) • The “gap” closes, population increase slows down Factors • Realization-large families are unnecessary • Family planning becomes available • Parents favor material things, not large families, • Woman become more involved in the workforce Example • Malaysia, Mexico
  • 9. Stage 3: Pyramid Structure • As birth rates begin to be addressed, the base begins to stabilize and eventually narrow; • Death rates are low and stabilized, meaning that the pyramid continues to grow higher.
  • 10. The Four Stages Stage 4 • Birth rate is low • Death rate is low • low natural increase - high total population • Small “gap” like in stage 1 (Population may be declining) Example • USA, France
  • 11. Stage 4: Pyramid Structure • Birth rates and death rates are low; as fertility continues to decline, an AGING SOCIETY emerges. • Pyramid seems to “invert”
  • 12. MEDC vs. LEDC Note the quick transition to Phase 3 from the explosion of Phase 2 Note the longer time period as LEDC’s are “trapped” in Phase 2
  • 13. Criticism of DTM • The model is an over-generalization of the industrialized European experience • Industrialization is difficult to achieve for LEDC’s in a trading system that protects the industries of MEDC’s; • Model assumes all countries proceed from stage 1-4; • It ignores variables and exceptions (ie. War, political turmoil) • The model assumes that reductions in fertility are a function of increased wealth and industrialization– • Other factors such as the status of women and other social development are ignored.