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What Will Tomorrow Look Like
     In Central Iowa?

         William Fulton
        January 12, 2012
What Will Tomorrow Look
         Like In Central Iowa?
• Lots of growth drivers are changing

• Long-term economic competitiveness requires a different
  approach to growth

• Taxpayer money will be tight in the future

• A plan focused on “sustainability” (economic as well
  as environmental) can help
Central Iowa is Growing and Changing

• Central Iowa Is
  Growing At
  California Levels

• Central Iowa Is
  Growing Unevenly

• Boomers and
  Millennials Will Drive
  the Markets
Central Iowa Is Growing Faster Than California

          County Population Growth, Raw Numbers, 1990-2010
 60,000



 50,000



 40,000



 30,000



 20,000



 10,000



     0
          Polk            Dallas                      Warren   Madison

                              1990-2000   2000-2010
Central Iowa Is Growing Unevenly
              City Population Growth, Raw Numbers, 1990-2010
20,000



15,000



10,000



 5,000



    -



(5,000)




                               1990-2000   2000-2010
Central Iowa Is Growing Unevenly
All of Iowa Is Developing Land At
A Much Faster Rate Than Population Is Being Added
Central Iowa’s Demographics Are Changing
 Baby Boomers and
Millennials are the two fastest
growing demographic
segments in America

 Des Moines best place for
young professionals

 Latino population is much
larger than state average

All these demographic
groups – especially young
professionals – are trending
away from traditional suburban
lifestyle
Baby Boomers and Millennials Will Drive
 The Future Housing and Jobs Market
 90,000,000


 80,000,000


 70,000,000


 60,000,000


 50,000,000
                                                                       Population
 40,000,000                                                            Labor Force

 30,000,000


 20,000,000


 10,000,000


         0
              Greates Generation   Baby Boomers   Gen X   Millenials
Americans Want More
Walkable, Sustainable
Neighborhoods
“Overall, Americans’ ideal communities have a mix
of houses, places to walk, and amenities within an
easy walk or close drive.”

77% of Americans want pedestrian-friendly features.

88% place more value on the quality of the
    neighborhood than the size of the home.
Millennials Especially Are Trending
Away From Traditional Suburbs

47% would prefer to live in a city or a suburb with a mix
    of houses, shops, and businesses.

40% would prefer a rural or a small town.

12% say they would prefer a suburban neighborhood
    with houses only.
Americans Value “Sense of Place,”
Whether City, Village, or Rural Town
Bill fulton
Bill fulton
Bill fulton
Bill fulton
Current Patterns Are a Fiscal Strain
Current Patterns Are a Fiscal Strain


 Low-density suburban
development rarely pays
for itself

 Costs are not just
infrastructure related but
also operations and
maintenance

 Burden usually falls on
taxpayers                     Low-density development means
                              higher snowplowing costs to
                              accommodate fewer people.
And As Our Population Ages …

… these fiscal
burdens on the
taxpayers are likely
only to get greater
And Where’s The Money Going To Come From?
  Federal Highway Trust Fund is bankrupt

  Congress can’t pass transportation bill because nobody
  wants to make tough choices

  Current options:
     Increase the gas tax
     Replace/supplement gas tax with something else (VMT tax?)
     Pull back so that federal funds cover only National Highway System.
Gas Tax Losing Purchasing Power
                Effective Gas Tax Rate (1993 Dollars)
$0.45

$0.40

$0.35

$0.30

$0.25

$0.20

$0.15

$0.10

$0.05

  $-
                   1993   Federal Gas Tax   State Gas Tax   2011




        Maybe we need to look at different solutions!
Compact development lowers costs at the
neighborhood/project level

    Charlotte, NC: Case Study of Fire Station Coverage and Annual Costs




                                                          Source: City of Charlotte
How a Tomorrow Plan
             Helped Another Region

Sacramento
• Not a latte-guzzling
  coastal metropolis
• State capital in
  agricultural area
• Low (comparatively)
  housing prices
• Growing rapidly in
  population
Prosperity?
New urbanized land:
661 square miles

VMT:
47.2 per HH per day

Mode:
Car: 93.7%
Transit 0.8%
Walk: 5.5%
Prosperity?
New urbanized land:
304 square miles

VMT:
34.9 per HH per day

Mode:
Car: 83.9%
Transit 3.3%
Walk: 12.9%
All This Sounds Good. What Do We Do?


• Use these analytical tools to be aware of the regional
  consequences

• You all have to work together on environmental and
  infrastructure issues at the regional level anyway

• Make sure that what you are doing locally makes sense
  for you locally
Good Luck
     With Tomorrow!
 You’ve got some great
  advantages here

 You have to a lot of work
  together in order to remain
  competitive worldwide.

 You don’t your tax revenue
  eaten up to service low-
  density sprawl

 You have to work together
  to get all this done
Smart Growth America is the only national organization dedicated to
researching, advocating for and leading coalitions to bring smart growth practices to more
communities nationwide.

                              www.smartgrowthamerica.org


             1707 L St. NW Suite 1050, Washington, DC 20036 | 202-207-3355

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Bill fulton

  • 1. What Will Tomorrow Look Like In Central Iowa? William Fulton January 12, 2012
  • 2. What Will Tomorrow Look Like In Central Iowa? • Lots of growth drivers are changing • Long-term economic competitiveness requires a different approach to growth • Taxpayer money will be tight in the future • A plan focused on “sustainability” (economic as well as environmental) can help
  • 3. Central Iowa is Growing and Changing • Central Iowa Is Growing At California Levels • Central Iowa Is Growing Unevenly • Boomers and Millennials Will Drive the Markets
  • 4. Central Iowa Is Growing Faster Than California County Population Growth, Raw Numbers, 1990-2010 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Polk Dallas Warren Madison 1990-2000 2000-2010
  • 5. Central Iowa Is Growing Unevenly City Population Growth, Raw Numbers, 1990-2010 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - (5,000) 1990-2000 2000-2010
  • 6. Central Iowa Is Growing Unevenly
  • 7. All of Iowa Is Developing Land At A Much Faster Rate Than Population Is Being Added
  • 8. Central Iowa’s Demographics Are Changing  Baby Boomers and Millennials are the two fastest growing demographic segments in America  Des Moines best place for young professionals  Latino population is much larger than state average All these demographic groups – especially young professionals – are trending away from traditional suburban lifestyle
  • 9. Baby Boomers and Millennials Will Drive The Future Housing and Jobs Market 90,000,000 80,000,000 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 Population 40,000,000 Labor Force 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 Greates Generation Baby Boomers Gen X Millenials
  • 10. Americans Want More Walkable, Sustainable Neighborhoods “Overall, Americans’ ideal communities have a mix of houses, places to walk, and amenities within an easy walk or close drive.” 77% of Americans want pedestrian-friendly features. 88% place more value on the quality of the neighborhood than the size of the home.
  • 11. Millennials Especially Are Trending Away From Traditional Suburbs 47% would prefer to live in a city or a suburb with a mix of houses, shops, and businesses. 40% would prefer a rural or a small town. 12% say they would prefer a suburban neighborhood with houses only.
  • 12. Americans Value “Sense of Place,” Whether City, Village, or Rural Town
  • 17. Current Patterns Are a Fiscal Strain
  • 18. Current Patterns Are a Fiscal Strain  Low-density suburban development rarely pays for itself  Costs are not just infrastructure related but also operations and maintenance  Burden usually falls on taxpayers Low-density development means higher snowplowing costs to accommodate fewer people.
  • 19. And As Our Population Ages … … these fiscal burdens on the taxpayers are likely only to get greater
  • 20. And Where’s The Money Going To Come From?  Federal Highway Trust Fund is bankrupt  Congress can’t pass transportation bill because nobody wants to make tough choices  Current options:  Increase the gas tax  Replace/supplement gas tax with something else (VMT tax?)  Pull back so that federal funds cover only National Highway System.
  • 21. Gas Tax Losing Purchasing Power Effective Gas Tax Rate (1993 Dollars) $0.45 $0.40 $0.35 $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 $0.10 $0.05 $- 1993 Federal Gas Tax State Gas Tax 2011 Maybe we need to look at different solutions!
  • 22. Compact development lowers costs at the neighborhood/project level Charlotte, NC: Case Study of Fire Station Coverage and Annual Costs Source: City of Charlotte
  • 23. How a Tomorrow Plan Helped Another Region Sacramento • Not a latte-guzzling coastal metropolis • State capital in agricultural area • Low (comparatively) housing prices • Growing rapidly in population
  • 24. Prosperity? New urbanized land: 661 square miles VMT: 47.2 per HH per day Mode: Car: 93.7% Transit 0.8% Walk: 5.5%
  • 25. Prosperity? New urbanized land: 304 square miles VMT: 34.9 per HH per day Mode: Car: 83.9% Transit 3.3% Walk: 12.9%
  • 26. All This Sounds Good. What Do We Do? • Use these analytical tools to be aware of the regional consequences • You all have to work together on environmental and infrastructure issues at the regional level anyway • Make sure that what you are doing locally makes sense for you locally
  • 27. Good Luck With Tomorrow!  You’ve got some great advantages here  You have to a lot of work together in order to remain competitive worldwide.  You don’t your tax revenue eaten up to service low- density sprawl  You have to work together to get all this done
  • 28. Smart Growth America is the only national organization dedicated to researching, advocating for and leading coalitions to bring smart growth practices to more communities nationwide. www.smartgrowthamerica.org 1707 L St. NW Suite 1050, Washington, DC 20036 | 202-207-3355

Notas do Editor

  1. What time frame?
  2. Highest population cities are mostly concentrated along I-80
  3. A number of indicators point to smart growth’s rising popularity.First and foremost, we all know that home prices in downtowns and urban areas are higher than suburbs. This is, on the one hand, a sign of the Incredible-Hulk-like strength of market demand for these neighborhoods. But those high prices also mean that many A 2011 poll from the National Association of Realtors found that a majority of Americans favor walkable, mixed-use neighborhoods over neighborhoods that require more driving. 77 percent of respondents said they would look for neighborhoods with abundant sidewalks and other pedestrian-friendly features when considering buying a home. 50 percent would like to see improvements to existing public transportation rather than initiatives to build new roads and developments.Source: NAR press release. “NAR Study Finds Americans Prefer Smart Growth Communities.” April 4, 2011. Retrieved from http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/NAR-Study-Finds-Americans-Prefer-Smart-Growth-Communities-1422077.htm
  4. Source: NAR press release. “NAR Study Finds Americans Prefer Smart Growth Communities.” April 4, 2011. Retrieved from http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/NAR-Study-Finds-Americans-Prefer-Smart-Growth-Communities-1422077.htm
  5. Cities want MillennialsYounger workers are highly skilled and educated. More than 90 percent are high school graduates, and more than a third have a bachelor’s degree or higher. Many areas of the country, the 24-to-35-year-old contingent is the highest educated. (Patriot-News, below)Many cities, in turn, are building the sort of development Millennials want in order to attract them – and the companies that employ them.“Close-in neighborhoods with higher density, mixed uses, walkable destinations, lively commercial districts and interesting streets can make a region more competitive for talented workers. Good public services, including transit, schools and parks, make close-in neighborhoods even more appealing.” – CEOs for Cities’ “The Young and the Restless in a Knowledge EconomyCites:“Brain drain isn't central Pa. problem anymore.” Patriot-News (Penn.), July 23, 2011. http://www.pennlive.com/editorials/index.ssf/2011/07/brain_drain_isnt_central_pa_pr.html“Young Professionals Drawn to Urban Living,” Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, August 6, 2011. Retrieved from http://www.jsonline.com/business/127075593.html“Detroit’s downtown ‘starting to fight back’,” The Washington Times, August 7, 2011. Retrieved from http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/aug/7/detroits-downtown-starting-to-fight-back/
  6. Utilities also cost less. Financially stronger communities also benefit developers – appeal of the place, may have priority on SG projects and help facilitate them.