Investment Opportunity for Thailand's Automotive & EV Industries
Bill fulton
1. What Will Tomorrow Look Like
In Central Iowa?
William Fulton
January 12, 2012
2. What Will Tomorrow Look
Like In Central Iowa?
• Lots of growth drivers are changing
• Long-term economic competitiveness requires a different
approach to growth
• Taxpayer money will be tight in the future
• A plan focused on “sustainability” (economic as well
as environmental) can help
3. Central Iowa is Growing and Changing
• Central Iowa Is
Growing At
California Levels
• Central Iowa Is
Growing Unevenly
• Boomers and
Millennials Will Drive
the Markets
4. Central Iowa Is Growing Faster Than California
County Population Growth, Raw Numbers, 1990-2010
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Polk Dallas Warren Madison
1990-2000 2000-2010
5. Central Iowa Is Growing Unevenly
City Population Growth, Raw Numbers, 1990-2010
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
(5,000)
1990-2000 2000-2010
7. All of Iowa Is Developing Land At
A Much Faster Rate Than Population Is Being Added
8. Central Iowa’s Demographics Are Changing
Baby Boomers and
Millennials are the two fastest
growing demographic
segments in America
Des Moines best place for
young professionals
Latino population is much
larger than state average
All these demographic
groups – especially young
professionals – are trending
away from traditional suburban
lifestyle
9. Baby Boomers and Millennials Will Drive
The Future Housing and Jobs Market
90,000,000
80,000,000
70,000,000
60,000,000
50,000,000
Population
40,000,000 Labor Force
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
0
Greates Generation Baby Boomers Gen X Millenials
10. Americans Want More
Walkable, Sustainable
Neighborhoods
“Overall, Americans’ ideal communities have a mix
of houses, places to walk, and amenities within an
easy walk or close drive.”
77% of Americans want pedestrian-friendly features.
88% place more value on the quality of the
neighborhood than the size of the home.
11. Millennials Especially Are Trending
Away From Traditional Suburbs
47% would prefer to live in a city or a suburb with a mix
of houses, shops, and businesses.
40% would prefer a rural or a small town.
12% say they would prefer a suburban neighborhood
with houses only.
18. Current Patterns Are a Fiscal Strain
Low-density suburban
development rarely pays
for itself
Costs are not just
infrastructure related but
also operations and
maintenance
Burden usually falls on
taxpayers Low-density development means
higher snowplowing costs to
accommodate fewer people.
19. And As Our Population Ages …
… these fiscal
burdens on the
taxpayers are likely
only to get greater
20. And Where’s The Money Going To Come From?
Federal Highway Trust Fund is bankrupt
Congress can’t pass transportation bill because nobody
wants to make tough choices
Current options:
Increase the gas tax
Replace/supplement gas tax with something else (VMT tax?)
Pull back so that federal funds cover only National Highway System.
21. Gas Tax Losing Purchasing Power
Effective Gas Tax Rate (1993 Dollars)
$0.45
$0.40
$0.35
$0.30
$0.25
$0.20
$0.15
$0.10
$0.05
$-
1993 Federal Gas Tax State Gas Tax 2011
Maybe we need to look at different solutions!
22. Compact development lowers costs at the
neighborhood/project level
Charlotte, NC: Case Study of Fire Station Coverage and Annual Costs
Source: City of Charlotte
23. How a Tomorrow Plan
Helped Another Region
Sacramento
• Not a latte-guzzling
coastal metropolis
• State capital in
agricultural area
• Low (comparatively)
housing prices
• Growing rapidly in
population
26. All This Sounds Good. What Do We Do?
• Use these analytical tools to be aware of the regional
consequences
• You all have to work together on environmental and
infrastructure issues at the regional level anyway
• Make sure that what you are doing locally makes sense
for you locally
27. Good Luck
With Tomorrow!
You’ve got some great
advantages here
You have to a lot of work
together in order to remain
competitive worldwide.
You don’t your tax revenue
eaten up to service low-
density sprawl
You have to work together
to get all this done
28. Smart Growth America is the only national organization dedicated to
researching, advocating for and leading coalitions to bring smart growth practices to more
communities nationwide.
www.smartgrowthamerica.org
1707 L St. NW Suite 1050, Washington, DC 20036 | 202-207-3355
Notas do Editor
What time frame?
Highest population cities are mostly concentrated along I-80
A number of indicators point to smart growth’s rising popularity.First and foremost, we all know that home prices in downtowns and urban areas are higher than suburbs. This is, on the one hand, a sign of the Incredible-Hulk-like strength of market demand for these neighborhoods. But those high prices also mean that many A 2011 poll from the National Association of Realtors found that a majority of Americans favor walkable, mixed-use neighborhoods over neighborhoods that require more driving. 77 percent of respondents said they would look for neighborhoods with abundant sidewalks and other pedestrian-friendly features when considering buying a home. 50 percent would like to see improvements to existing public transportation rather than initiatives to build new roads and developments.Source: NAR press release. “NAR Study Finds Americans Prefer Smart Growth Communities.” April 4, 2011. Retrieved from http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/NAR-Study-Finds-Americans-Prefer-Smart-Growth-Communities-1422077.htm
Source: NAR press release. “NAR Study Finds Americans Prefer Smart Growth Communities.” April 4, 2011. Retrieved from http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/NAR-Study-Finds-Americans-Prefer-Smart-Growth-Communities-1422077.htm
Cities want MillennialsYounger workers are highly skilled and educated. More than 90 percent are high school graduates, and more than a third have a bachelor’s degree or higher. Many areas of the country, the 24-to-35-year-old contingent is the highest educated. (Patriot-News, below)Many cities, in turn, are building the sort of development Millennials want in order to attract them – and the companies that employ them.“Close-in neighborhoods with higher density, mixed uses, walkable destinations, lively commercial districts and interesting streets can make a region more competitive for talented workers. Good public services, including transit, schools and parks, make close-in neighborhoods even more appealing.” – CEOs for Cities’ “The Young and the Restless in a Knowledge EconomyCites:“Brain drain isn't central Pa. problem anymore.” Patriot-News (Penn.), July 23, 2011. http://www.pennlive.com/editorials/index.ssf/2011/07/brain_drain_isnt_central_pa_pr.html“Young Professionals Drawn to Urban Living,” Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, August 6, 2011. Retrieved from http://www.jsonline.com/business/127075593.html“Detroit’s downtown ‘starting to fight back’,” The Washington Times, August 7, 2011. Retrieved from http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/aug/7/detroits-downtown-starting-to-fight-back/
Utilities also cost less. Financially stronger communities also benefit developers – appeal of the place, may have priority on SG projects and help facilitate them.