True facts about lies
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![We
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nd anecdotal evidence to be more
persuasive than statistical evidence [only]
when emotional engagement
is high, as...](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/present2succeed-220407103042/75/the-dangers-of-storytelling-14-2048.jpg?cb=1667578660)
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The Dangers of Storytelling
- 1. Alexei Kapterev alexei@kapterev.com The dangers of storytelling WARNING: This talk contains storytelling
- 2. Mark Twain Never let the truth get in the way of a good story. Mark Twain
- 3. TED
- 4. Relevant Easy to digest Trustworthy TED
- 5. Mid-2012
- 6. 1. Change your propensity to gamble? 2. Change the level of your cortisol and testosterone? Can you, by assuming a certain posture for two minutes…
- 7. High Power Pose Low Power Pose Expansive Contractive
- 8. Answers High power Low power Propensity to gamble 86 % 60 % Testosterone ⬆︎ 20 % ⬇︎ 10 % Cortisol ⬇︎ 15 % ⬆︎ 15 %
- 9. FAKE IT until you MAKE IT ❧ ❧
- 10. Power posing: brief nonverbal displays affect neuroendocrine levels and risk tolerance by Amy Cuddy, Dana Carney and Andy Yap The TED Talk reconded Failed replication by Eva Ranehill of the University of Zurich Meta-analysis by Simmons & Simonsohn of Wharton, zero effect Katie Garrison pre-registered-high powered replication (n=322), zero effect Cuddy publishes her meta-analysis insisting on psychological effects without neuroendocrine A new meta-analysis is out, concludes slouching is bad https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1745691620919358 2010 2012 2014 2015 2016 2018 2020
- 11. Storytelling Science
- 12. Story ➊ Anecdote ➋ Narrative
- 13. Overall, statistical evidence exerts a greater impact on persuasion than anecdotal evidence. Freling et al When poignant stories outweigh cold hard facts: A meta-analysis of the anecdotal bias https:/ /doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2020.01.006
- 14. We fi nd anecdotal evidence to be more persuasive than statistical evidence [only] when emotional engagement is high, as when issues involve a severe threat, health, or oneself. https:/ /doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2020.01.006 Freling et al When poignant stories outweigh cold hard facts: A meta-analysis of the anecdotal bias
- 15. Anecdotal evidence is still evidence
- 16. The thing I have noticed is that when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There is something wrong with the way that you are measuring it. Je ff Bezos Amazon, founder
- 17. The “decisive operation” on the current Middle Eastern battle fi eld is narrative. Violence is still a critical portion of armed con fl ict, but it optimally serves a supporting role. ISIS and others use violence primarily to communicate, con fi rm, or advance their narrative. Brian Steed Lieutenant Colonel, US Army
- 18. Narrative Anecdote Anecdote Fact Study Quote
- 19. 1. Adversarial nature Problems with narrative
- 20. One thing on which we hope our critics will agree with us is that a play should have conflict. Lajos Ergi The Art of Dramatic Writing
- 21. 1. Adversarial nature 2. Oversimplification Problems with narrative
- 22. School Parenting Genes Children’s outcomes Random life experiences
- 23. Every time you’re telling a good vs. evil story, you’re basically lowering your IQ by ten points or more. Tyler Cowen Economist
- 24. Simon Zebregs The Differential Impact of Statistical and Narrative Evidence on Beliefs, Attitude, and Intention: A Meta-Analysis Statistical evidence was found to have a stronger in fl uence than narrative on beliefs and attitude, whereas narrative evidence had a stronger influence on intention. http:/ /dx.doi.org/10.1080/10410236.2013.842528
- 25. 1. Adversarial nature 2. Oversimplification 3. Overconfidence Problems with narrative
- 26. Overcon fi dence is a powerful source of illusions, primarily determined by the quality and coherence of the story that you can construct, not by its validity. If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel con fi dent regardless of how well grounded it is in reality. Daniel Kahneman Psychologist, Nobel laureate
- 27. Mark Twain All you need in this life is ignorance and confidence, and then success is sure. Mark Twain
- 28. WARNING: Contains storytelling
- 29. – MOTIVATION + – EXPERTISE +
- 30. Our non-verbal displays influence other people Video example Ambadi and Todotov Smiley face Our non-verbal displays influence how we think and feel Females and minorities more frequently display signals of submission Fake it until you make it Personal account Fritz Strack experiments Student’s story Hormones Experiment Job interview Experiment There are non- verbal signs of power and dominance By changing non-verbal signals we can shift the balance of power Blind athletes Animals Evidence Proposition Decision graph
- 31. Our non-verbal displays influence other people Video example Ambadi and Todotov Smiley face Our non-verbal displays influence how we think and feel Females and minorities more frequently display signals of submission Fake it until you make it Personal account Fritz Strack experiments Student’s story Hormones Experiment Job interview Experiment There are non- verbal signs of power and dominance By changing non-verbal signals we can shift the balance of power Blind athletes Animals Bayesian decision graph | 2021
- 32. The danger of stories is that they work too well Ignorance, overconfidence and desire to wage war is a dangerous combination We can use maps/graphs for internal communication We need different tools for different contexts Amy Cuddy case We should distinguish between anecdotes and narratives Anecdotes are mostly harmless Narratives oversimplify complex things Narratives produce motivation Narratives are fundamentally adversarial, they are weapons of war Ergi quote J.R.Harris case study Meta-analysis by Zebregs Magical kingdom map This map as an example Freling et al study Jeff Bezos quote Meta-analysis by Zebregs
- 33. The danger of stories is that they work too well Ignorance, overconfidence and desire to wage war is a dangerous combination We can use maps/graphs for internal communication We need different tools for different contexts Amy Cuddy case We should distinguish between anecdotes and narratives Anecdotes are mostly harmless Narratives oversimplify complex things Narratives produce motivation Narratives are fundamentally adversarial, they are weapons of war Ergi quote J.R.Harris case study Meta-analysis by Zebregs Magical kingdom map This map as an example Freling et al study Jeff Bezos quote Meta-analysis by Zebregs kapterev.com/p2s.jpg
- 34. Informing Persuading ⟶ ⟶
- 35. ⟶ Informing Persuading Seeking truth ⟶
- 36. www.kapterev.com alexei@kapterev.com +7 985 764 1898 Alexei Kapterev
- 37. WITH ME Hey, if you ever or would like to study STUDIED could you please fi ll out THE SURVEY
