Tyndall Centre Update: Mitigation… potted account of some recent research

1. Tyndall Centre Update: Mitigation
… potted account of some recent research
Kevin Anderson
Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

2. Finally,
“… this is not a message of futility, but a wake-up call of where
our rose-tinted spectacles have brought us. Real hope, if it is
to arise at all, will do so from a bare assessment of the scale
of the challenge we now face.”
Anderson & Bows
Beyond ‘dangerous climate change
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society
Jan 2011

3. “When I look at this [CO2] data, the trend is perfectly in line with
a temperature increase of 6 degrees Celsius, which would have
devastating consequences for the planet.”
Fatih Birol - IEA chief economist
… and according to the World Bank, at just 4°C
"There will be water and food fights everywhere,”
Jim Yong Kim – WB president

4. My headline conclusion:
Stabilisation at 2°C remains a feasible goal
just
… with economic (oikonimia),
but not financial (chrematisitc) benefits

5. Research Areas
 District heating (esp. CHP)
 CCS/Renewables –planning, stakeholder/public perceptions,
 Bio energy (lead UK’s research with strong industry link)
 Smart grids (technical and how used)
 Food in a changing climate
 Growth, green growth, equity (economics, steady state)
 High-emitters (UK & China) – tailoring policies
 Carbon budgets (revisiting UK budgets)

6. Shale gas
- Environmental/Social issues can be mitigated
- Climate change implications cannot
 Shale gas & natural gas are identical
 They are both high carbon energy sources (75% carbon)
 For electricity, gas is ~50% of coal emissions per kWh
 But only lower CO2 if substituted coal is not burnt elsewhere
 In absence of explicit policies, shale only adds to the carbon
burden (see US data). As DECC note:
“it is difficult to envisage a situation other than shale gas largely
being used in addition to other fossil fuel reserves and adding a further carbon
burden.”

7. Shale gas and UK carbon budgets
Emissions from combusting ~10% of British Geological Survey’s
central estimate of the Bowland shale resource equates to the
total 2013-2050 UK carbon budget
In brief; if the UK is to pursue shale gas for use in UK power
stations it must renege on its own carbon budgets
(shale gas will not be a major energy source before ~2025, & the
CCC state by 2030 the UK requires almost carbon-free electricity)

8. Nuclear
New Tyndall Report into nuclear power within the UK
http://www.foe.co.uk/resource/briefings/tyndall_evidence.pdf
The mitigation conclusion is that the case for or against
nuclear energy within the UK is contextual; i.e. the objectives,
in terms of carbon reduction levels, rates of mitigation and
timeframe all need to be well specified

9. Shipping
International Maritime Organisation (IMO) tasked by UNFCCC to
develop Climate Change response
(emblematic of most sectors)

10. “Mankind is on the horns of a dilemma. … our collective way of
life [is] eating away at the very support system that enables
us to live and breathe. This cannot go on. We need to make
some tough decisions, we need to make them now ...
Faced with facts we cannot argue against we need to consider
our priorities … to make sacrifices; we need to start putting
"life" ahead of "lifestyle".
Efthimios E. Mitropoulos
The IMO General Secretary’s view on climate change

11. Shipping
Two flagship mitigation policies of the IMO
are:
 The ‘energy efficiency design index’ (EEDI)
 The ‘ship energy efficient management plan’ (SEEMP)
How do these fair against the IMO and ICS’s high-level commitments?

12. Anderson and Bows, 2012, Carbon Management (2012) 3(6), 615–628
Superimposing IMO/ICS plans/projections on their
high-level commitments

13. 90-140MtCO2
Superimposing IMO/ICS plans/projections on their
high-level commitments
Anderson and Bows, 2012, Carbon Management (2012) 3(6), 615–628

14. 90-140MtCO2
~1300MtCO2
~1900MtCO2
Superimposing IMO/ICS plans/projections on their
high-level commitments
Anderson and Bows, 2012, Carbon Management (2012) 3(6), 615–628

15. Shipping – lots of low carbon options
Existing: Operational change, radically reduce speed
(cube relationship with energy consumption)
Retrofit: Kites & possibly nuclear
New: Wind (kites, flettnor rotors, sails, nuclear, bio)
Demand: ~50% of UK shipping is transporting fossil fuels
Ports: Cold ironing, renewable onsight (Sulphur & LNG)

16. Shipping
… yet planning for a 1000% (A2) to 2000% (A1B) increase
on their high-level mitigation commitments
… with the IMO referring repeatedly to such increases as reductions

17. Shipping is in good company …
Overall there is very clear weakening of the global and UK government’s commitment to climate change
Virtually every nation & sector is failing to meet its own commitments, or claiming ‘savings’ that are known to be false (except Swansea?)
… as for 2°C, no nation or sector (including the UK & Wales) is
even contemplating such emission reductions (e.g. UK 3-4% p.a.,
whilst 50:50 chance of 2°C demands ~10% p.a. for UK)

18. 2013 UK Context
 Tax breaks for shale gas development
 Osborne’s (Chancellor) 37GW of unabated CCGTS
 Highest investment ever in North Sea oil
 (possible reopening of Scottish coal mines)
 Expanding aviation & more ports
 EU Car legislation watered down to be little more that BAU
 Rejected 2030 decarbonisation target
 Shell – Arctic exploration
 Myth of CCS – 50-80gCO2/kWh

19. Σ China & India…
(making our computers & running our call centres)
Emission in 2020 15-20GtCO2 (~⅔ global 2010)
Peak ~2025-30
Population ~40% of global figure
GDP/capita < 5% OECD in 2010
Energy growth ~5-8% p.a.

20. We must escape the shackles of a twentieth century mind-
set if we are ever to resolve twenty-first century challenges
This will demand leadership, courage, innovative thinking,
engaged teams, difficult choices & ‘pain’ for high emitters
Cybil exemplified what this may look like for Swansea

21. Tyndall Centre
Radical Emission Reduction conference
Royal Society Dec. 2013
Kevin Anderson
Website: http:// kevinanderson.info
Twitter: kevinclimate