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Similar a Cyflwyniad gan Gareth Wyn Jones yn ystod cyfarfod y Comisiwn Cymru ar y Newid yn yr Hinsawdd ar 2 Hydref 2012. Presentation by Gareth Wyn Jones at the meeting of the Climate Change Commission for Wales on 2nd October 2012.(20)

Mais de Comisiwn Cymru ar y Newid yn yr Hinsawdd/ Climate Change Commission for Wales(20)

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Cyflwyniad gan Gareth Wyn Jones yn ystod cyfarfod y Comisiwn Cymru ar y Newid yn yr Hinsawdd ar 2 Hydref 2012. Presentation by Gareth Wyn Jones at the meeting of the Climate Change Commission for Wales on 2nd October 2012.

  1. LAND USE CLIMATE CHANGE GROUP GRŴ P DEFNYDD TIR A NEWID HINSAWDD
  2. WALES AGRICULTURE/FOOD CHAIN EMISSIONS ALLYRIADAU CYMRU O AMAETH / GADWYN FWYD 2007 N2O - 2.83 Mt CO2 e [from microbial action in soils and manures, inorganic N application, manure and leaching] CH4 - 2.72 Mt CO2e [from enteric ruminant activity & manure] CO2 - 0.48 Mt CO2 e [on farm emissions] - 2.5-3 Mt CO2 e [from food chain, fertilizer production and other inputs]
  3. WALES AGRICULTURE / FOOD CHAIN EMISSIONS ALLYRIADAU CYMRU O AMAETH / GADWYN FWYD 2007 Total - 8.5 - 9.0 Mt CO2 e Equivalent to ~ 3t CO2 e/person/annum (20% of Wales' emissions)
  4. WALES, UK and EUROPEAN TARGE 80% REDUCTION IN GHG EMISSIONS BY 2050
  5. PRESSURES 1. anti meat/vegetarian/vegan lobby 2. human health issues [obesity/heart disease] 3. environmental impact of production 4. impact of world food animal production on grain resources etc 5. land use/forest clearance 1. population growth 2. increasing demand for meat and dairy products due to improving living standard 3. desertification of marginal semi-arid rangelands
  6. Principles [a]maintain ecosystem/countryside services e.g. food, water, timber, natural beauty biodiversity etc. [b] economic, social and environmental sustainability
  7. INVENTORY METHODS MESURIADAU STOCRESTR Agriculture emissions are estimated from multiplying annual activity data (ruminant numbers, fertiliser use etc) by emission factors/unit source. Land use emissions are based on the annual changes in carbon content of soils and biomass per unit area, multiplied by estimates of the areas undergoing land use change.
  8. GHG emissions (kt CO2e) by agricultural sector
  9. WALES LAND USE AND LAND USE CHANGE EMISSIONS- 2007 ALLYRIADAU DEFNYDD TIR A NEWID YN NEFNYDD TIR CYMRU- 2007 (kt CO2e) iomaBss burning (grass / moors / brush) 32 Liming of grassland and cropland 44 Land to forest -1,430
  10. Wales N2O emissions inventory – agriculture and land use 2007 [kt CO2e] Agricultural soils – total 2,187 Fertiliser application 400 Manure application 230 Grazing – direct depositions 700 Crop residues 20
  11. Annual abatement impacts (kt CO2e) from 10, 20 and 30 year tree planting programmes at 5,000 ha/year averaged for decadal periods based on FR CARBINE model. Broadleaves Mixed Continuous Total Unmanaged Cover Gley soil Loam soil Planting 2500 2500 5000 programme (ha/yr) Length of 10 20 30 10 20 30 10 20 30 programme (years) Total Woodland 25000 50000 75000 25000 50000 75000 50000 100000 150000 Creation (ha) 2010-2019 7 7 7 23 23 23 30 30 30 2020-2029 206 211 211 289 310 310 495 522 522
  12. Food commodity emissions from LCA study Standardised Consumption Total Welsh Food calories / kg carbon footprint (kg / person / year) footprint (kg CO2e / (kt CO2e / year) kg product) Lamb meat 32.0 2.9 271 2,500 Cheese 12.5 4.6 171 3,833 Liquid milk 1.7 26.2 131 615 Strawberries 1.3 2.6 10 302 Potatoes 1.0 26.0 79 1,000
  13. RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL • a significant hydro power potential of at least 0.3 TWh of electricity in upland Wales • community or personal wind energy could amount to 1 TWh electricity. The solar heat potential on individual homes is substantial but not quantifiable. • biomass such as short rotation coppice willow on the land above 300 m or miscanthus at lower altitudes could generate about 2-3 TWh as heat or 1/3 of this as electricity • 250,000 dairy cattle at 36 kWh/day could generate 330 GWh of heat which could be used in horticultural greenhouse enterprises etc • compared with the total problem the potential contribution of our small-scale rural micro renewables is relatively small – maybe about 3 TWh per year of electricity and a similar amount as heat. In terms of emissions savings this would total about 1,500-2,000 kt CO2e.
  14. SCENARIOS 1 AND 2 Scenario 1 Based on a modified ‘business as usual’ with incremental technical improvements to deliver emission reductions in the range 10-15% by 2020. Scenario 2 A market-driven scenario.
  15. SCENARIO 3 AND 4 Scenario 3 Based on major imposed cuts of around 60-70 % in ruminant animal numbers Scenario 4 A lower intensity scenario which would be based on mixed farming, reduction of animal products in diet and waste reduction
  16. SCENARIO 5 • dairy and associated beef production and anaerobic digestion • woodland management and expansion • on farm productivity improvement – sheep • renewable energy – wind, biomass, hydro, solar • increased efficiency, less waste and better focussed management • increased arable, horticultural and greenhouse crop production • reduction of animal products in diet and waste reduction • personal/individual responsibility
  17. GHG Source Output in Output in Output with Interventions 2007 GHGI 2020 (BAU) 2020 2030 2040 Forest – biomass burning 21 Grass – biomass burning 6 Settlement – biomass burning 4 Grass – liming 37 Cropland – liming 7 Land to settlement 688 694 Land to cropland 1,053 1,082 1334 1235 1174 Harvested wood products 68 -806
  18. SUMMARY / Crynodeb The preferred scenario would by Pe bai’n cael ei weithredu’n llawn, 2040, if fully implemented: byddai’r senario dewisol erbyn • Reduce net emissions of 2040 yn: agriculture and land use from • Lleihau allyriadau net 5,200 kt CO2e to around oddiwrth amaethyddiaeth a 2,000 kt CO2e. defnydd tir o 5,200 kt CO2e • Produce about 3 TWh of oddeutu 2,000 kt CO2e. renewable heat and 3 TWh of • Cynhyrchu tua 3 TWh o wres renewable electricity. This would adnewyddadwy a 3 TWh o save a further drydan adnewyddadwy. 1,500-2,000kt of CO2 e emissions Byddai hyn yn arbed 1,500-2,000 annually. kt CO2e o allyriadau pellach yn flynyddol.
  19. 1992 2002
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