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Living in the Anthropocene: Science, Sustainability, and Society
- 1. Koichi Wakata NASA February 2014Living in the Anthropocene: Science, Sustainability and Society Colorado Global Hub Director Research Professor, Sustainability Innovation Lab of Colorado at CU Senior Scholar, School of Global Environmental Sustainability at CSU Josh Tewksbury @tewksjj
- 2. Levers for Transformation CHANGE VISION / MINDSET CHANGE MECHANISMS CHANGE GOALS Adapted after Meadows 1999 CHANGE INFORMATION FLOWS Josh Tewksbury @tewksjj
- 3. Change Information Flows Data: ITU Measuring the Information Society (2014) Pic credit: Paul Butler, 3 billion internet users (44% of world households) 7 billion mobile phone subscriptions Facebook +1 billion users 26 billion connected devices in 2020
- 4. Change Goals: …a big year “Human-induced climate change is a scientific reality, and its effective control is a moral imperative for humanity.”
- 5. What should science look like in the Anthropocene? Change Mechanisms?
- 7. Lu et al. 2009 Diuk-Wasser 2012 Ciais et al. 2005 Δ NPP summer Δ NPP IPPC 2007 Research making predictions
- 8. European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development Solution- focused research conducted with Societal Partners
- 10. Brazil China Egypt India South Korea USA* 0 20 40 60 80 100 Academia Business Civil Service¥ Diplomacy Economics Engineering Law Medicine Military Teaching Others Politicians by tribeThese are not scientists Sources: Economist, International Who’s Who, Congressional Research Service
- 11. Research Funding Societal Benefits Problem Research Knowledge Transfer Academia Consultants and ‘Translators’ Policy and Business sectors Knowledge Transfer The pipeline model Adaptation Diffusion
- 12. How does the science get used? Where does the evidence for action come from? 9 report series 316 reports 44,038 citations
- 13. Source: Guizar, Brooks and Tewksbury - unpublished Avg. % of citations from peer reviewed sources 19-25 60 40 20 0 Percentofcitationsfrompeer reviewedliterature TNC Ecoregional Assessments IUCN Ecosystem Manage IUCN Environ. Law IUCN / WCPA Protect. Area Best Practices WWF Living Planet Report IUCN Species Survival Commission UNEP Year Book State of the Worlds Birds Advances in Applied Biodiversity Science n=3 3 6 11144 2376106 An alternative evidence ecosystem? Majority of evidence is not from the peer reviewed literature
- 14. Source: Guizar, Brooks and Tewksbury - unpublished NumberofJournals 75 50 25 0 0 500 1000 1500 Number of Citations 324 most cited journals in 316 reports; 8327 citations Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Ecology Animal Science and Zoology Nature and Landscape Conservation Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law Aquatic Science Agricultural and Biological science General Science Citations from ecology subject areas vs. citations from all social science subject areas combined 10 to 1 Which fields inform conservation? Ecology, and more Ecology.
- 16. Photo: Fruit Bat in Melbourne © Monica Johansen Science Capacity Policy / Practice Capacity Evidence Direction and Focus Boundary Organizations Photo: Fruit Bat in Melbourne © Monica Johansen
- 17. The history of international global change research programs
- 18. 18 WMO Science and Technology Alliance for Global Sustainability (observer)
- 20. Secretariat Functions o Research Enabling o Capacity Building o Communication and Engagement o Synthesis and Foresight o Coordination
- 22. Research program Knowledge-Action Networks An open inclusive network for sustainability science connecting communities across geographies, disciplines, and sectors of society and catalyzing co-designed science and engagement. Core projects+: over 20 established international communities Structured networks catalyzing new research and deep engagement with society around sustainability challenges Community
- 23. Sources: Photo: Fishing in the Mekong © Tan Someth Bunwath / WWF-Cambodia Knowledge Action Networks Cities Health Consumption & production Water, energy, food nexus Climate change: decarbonization and adaptation Natural assets Emergent risks Finance & Economics Transformations Oceans SDGs
- 24. Co-design from a global boundary organization Co-designing transdisciplinary research calls Catalyzing new research and synthesis Supporting global capacity for co- designed science Developing narratives and media to strengthen communication Building tools and resources for sustainability science and actionConvening experts to support science / policy processes
- 25. Challenges Food, Water, Energy, Cities, Consumption & Production, Climate, Sustainable Use and Protection of Aquatic and Terrestrial Ecosystems Service Science, Collaboration, Communication, Innovation, Education, Engagement Solutions Healthy landscapes, freshwater systems and oceans; clean air; just, equitable societies; livable cities; healthy people Science as Service Trans-disciplinary User-focused Co-created Solution oriented Scalable and transportable
- 26. Major support for the Colorado Global Hub of Future Earth Support for Anthropocene Magazine
Notas do Editor
- Here is the potential for CHANGE INFORMATION Pic credit: Paul Butler, visualizing friendship and the Economist. The digital divide is very apparent. But that is changing fast……
- SDGs
- I love this image – would like to replace text with a few KEY milestones represnting the change GOALS finance conference, sdgs and cop21 in 2015, unprecedented - SDGs - Encyclical - COP 21… - OR, do those on separate slides, as below
- I know these next slides well – But there has never been a better time to doing this work. More and more sectors of society are now paying attention. Whether our research is focused on energy, Disease, or food and water security, As individuals and institutions, we are being asked to build scenarios and predictions linking our actions to their ecological and economic consequences. But it is even more than this, really. More generally, in this time of accelerating global change, society is fundamentally asking for a brand of action-oriented, use inspired research that is more effective, more predictive, more responsive to the needs of society than it ever has been before. The challenge is to move from organisms and landscapes like these CLICK --------- But along with this new found relevance comes questions: How do we do our work? Is our field cohesive, inclusive, representative, nimble enough? Do we play well with other disciplines, can we integrate across scales? Is our work accessible to the public? In addition, how good are our incentive structures? What parts of society should we be interacting with? How well do we communicate our findings? Where is our data?
- To models like these, Whether we are moving from the study of Lymes disease to models of prevalence, or the study of interactions on crops to predicting changes in yield, our capacity to model the complexities of ecological systems is now greater than ever before. But our models are only as good as the evidence we build into those models. We are increasingly being asked to predict how the world will actually look. To do this, our models have to embrace the complexity of ecology, and complex predictive models are hungry for data, for details. In ecology, these details are natural history. And this requires us to work together more than ever. This is not an easy task, but it is still only half the task we face. The other half, is how we move from models like these to changes in policies, practices and behaviors.
- We need to get these results and implications to decision-makers in private and public sectors – in a form they can digest, at the time when they need it. … and you are saying … “Seriously?” I am still trying to figure our Tick behavior… Fair point.
- And we are not going to get this done on our own… So here is the world – 7.3 billion people… CLICK: and here is us. Ecologists. perhaps 30,000 globally. Less than 1% of academics or scientists. CLICK: We are mostly academic (about 70% of ESA are academics) and with about we are about 0.5% of the academics in the world – which number roughly 1.5 million in the US, perhaps 6 or 7 million in the world. CLICK And we are, more or less, all Scientists. So we are a small part of a relatively big academic ecosystem.
- But put in perspective, and thinkign about this social contract to influence society, the route is not a clear one. Because our job. CLICK is to influence theese guys, and the people like them. And while our president does seem generally happy to be holding Tony’s Koala here, CLICK these guys are not ecologists. And in fact, very few academics or scientists get anywhere near the national decision-making space. CLICK Here is a sample… Yellow is the academics holding political office in a sample of countries… It varis a lot, but look at the US… Let me make this more clear CLICK… In the senate, - no scientists. No academics. in the house, there are 3 – two physicists, and a microbiologist, and 6 engineers…. In the US congress as a whole – all in the house. more people stopped education at high-school than have a PHD.
- If we remove the IUCN Env. Law series, which sits in a slightly different culture, our average goes up to 25%. Collected Governance data on hundreds of MPAs and Ecological data from over 14,000 surveys across 250 MPAs in 45 Counties When you do the overlap, there are fewer than 100 MPAs where both data are found. But this is the BIGGEST dataset ever collected on the effectiveness of a primary conservation program
- If we remove the IUCN Env. Law series, which sits in a slightly different culture, our average goes up to 25%. So what are we doing here? Why is virtually all of our training, our effort, spent in an endevor that has a minority impact on decision-making?
- When you apportion the citations to each journal according to the journal subject areas – based on CROSSREF – and sum these numbers, Ecology, and fields related to Ecology, are absolutely dominant, with 10 times the citations of Ecology journals than there are citations to all the social sciences combined.
- Might shift to Gilberto's diagram
- And we are not going to get this done on our own… So here is the world – 7.3 billion people… CLICK: and here is us. Ecologists. perhaps 30,000 globally. Less than 1% of academics or scientists. CLICK: We are mostly academic (about 70% of ESA are academics) and with about we are about 0.5% of the academics in the world – which number roughly 1.5 million in the US, perhaps 6 or 7 million in the world. CLICK And we are, more or less, all Scientists. So we are a small part of a relatively big academic ecosystem.
- Future Earth is the evolution of the 30 year global change program generate high-quality global sustainability science that is relevant to societies, connect research communities across disciplines and geographies, and drive a step change in how international science engages with societal partners and stakeholders
- Brief outline of who is behind FE
- What Future Earth Looks like today. I will go through these points in detail
- 8 min to here TALK ABOUT STRUCTURE – SEC, REGIONAL, AND NATIONAL. USGCRP funds are leveraged by funds around the world to build an international staff focused on facilitating this step change CRITICAL THAT WE ESTABLISH ROBUST, REPRESENTATIVE NATIONAL STRUCTURES Talk about Staff structure.
- And though it is necessarily a complex beast, with global, regional and national aspects, on the research side we can now feel that we have clarity on the key and quite simple elements of Future Earth’s programme. - The Open Network, including critically the 22+ communities that have now transitioned, from CPs, as well as the partner programmes CCAFS and PECS - The developing KANs, that we’ll speak much more of - And what we mean to be the nimble innovation element of FTIs.
- 27.5 at end 1. Deliver water, energy, and food for all, and manage the synergies and trade-offs among them, by understanding how these interactions are shaped by environmental, economic, social and political changes. 2. Decarbonise socio-economic systems to stabilise the climate by promoting the technological, economic, social, political and behavioural changes enabling transformations, while building knowledge about the impacts of climate change and adaptation responses for people and ecosystems. 3. Safeguard the terrestrial, freshwater and marine natural assets underpinning human well-being by understanding relationships between biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and services, and developing effective valuation and governance approaches. 4. Build healthy, resilient and productive cities by identifying and shaping innovations that combine better urban environments and lives with declining resource footprints, and provide efficient services and infrastructures that are robust to disasters. 5. Promote sustainable rural futures to feed rising and more affluent populations amidst changes in biodiversity, resources and climate by analysing alternative land uses, food systems and ecosystem options, and identifying institutional and governance needs. 6. Improve human health by elucidating, and finding responses to, the complex interactions amongst environmental change, pollution, pathogens, disease vectors, ecosystem services, and people’s livelihoods, nutrition and well-being. 7. Encourage sustainable consumption and production patterns that are equitable by understanding the social and environmental impacts of consumption of all resources, opportunities for decoupling resource use from growth in well-being, and options for sustainable development pathways and related changes in human behaviour. 8. Increase social resilience to future threats by building adaptive governance systems, developing early warning of global and connected thresholds and risks, and testing effective, accountable and
- Communications
- Push Anthropocene Mag here – US policy issues and from US…
- Push Anthropocene Mag here – US policy issues and from US…
- Media Lab
- Anthropocene Mag