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Grain Price Outlook and Market Strategies Round Table Discussions by Brian Roach February 1 - 19, 2010 © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.  7601 N. Federal Hwy Suite 265-B Boca Raton, FL  33487 800-622-7628 jroach@roachag.com http://www.roachag.com © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Management is Responsible for ,[object Object]
Marketing
Risk Management
Finance
Labor
Planning
Business Succession© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Marketing and Risk Management ,[object Object]
Crop Insurance
Option Strategies – Margin and non-margin© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Planning and executing crop sales What happened what can we learn from it and what should we expect ahead? © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
My Bias Grain prices set their peak of a new price plateau in 2008. The new price plateau will remain but prices will search out the bottom of their range again this fall, if crops are good. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Why will the new price plateau remain? © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Population Growth Rates Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2017. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Global Meat beef + pork + chickens & turkeys Production, per capita consumption, and population Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2017. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Dollar’s value has been driving trade for the last 2 years Dollar Index © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Index funds increasingly important beginning 4 years ago © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Five-year moving average of world production values. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
What role did fundamentals play in 2009 grain prices? © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
#1 - World Soybean Crop down 27.4 million tons = 34% of entire U.S. Crop © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
#3- On May 17 only 62% of the U.S. corn crop was planted with Illinois at 20%. Beans were 25% planted with Illinois at 1%  © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
What are the Fundamentals Now?  © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Aug forecast +31.5 MMT                      Nov & Dec +39.4 MMT                          Jan +42.58 MMT  -  Feb +44.16 MMT © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Bean Situation and Price Outlook ,[object Object]
China demand numbers less certain
2010 ending stocks no longer tight, but we must raise big crops in 2010
Prices should peak prior to normal March June selling season if no U.S. crop problem develops© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
FSU-12 Exports 2007-8 – 27.47 MMT 2008-9 – 54.71 MMT 2009-10 – 49.50 MMT U.S. Corn Exports  2007-8 – 69.89 MMT 2008-9 – 51.17 MMT 2009-10 – 55.79 MMT U.S. Wheat Exports  2007-8 – 34.36 MMT 2008-9 – 27.64 MMT 2009-10 – 22.45 MMT © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
USDA 2009 World Corn Yields 12/10/09 © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Corn Situation and Price Outlook ,[object Object]
U.S. ending stocks likely to increase due to smaller exports and feed offset by + ethanol
Livestock producers losing less money
We still need a big corn crop every year and should have seasonal strength in 2010© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Funds are big shorts Wheat Situation and Price Outlook ,[object Object]
Prices increasingly dominated by former Soviet Union production
Index fund ownership distorting price higher and basis wider
2010 winter acreage 37.1 mil acres down 14.3% from 2009© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
How Should I Market My Crops? © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Roach Ag Sales Plan Make as many of your sales as possible during the months of March, April, May and June.  Avoid October and November Sell in increments to take advantage of several market peaks using Roach Ag Sell Signals Buy puts on unsold new crop production with either profit goal or insurance goal  © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Rule # 1 ,[object Object]
March through June is usually best© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. December 2007 Corn Both Lines Over 75 = Roach Ag Sell Signal
Roach Ag Sell & Buy Signals Your Digital Thermometer For Prices © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Roach Ag Sell Signals When Both Lines Are Above 75 = Sell Signal © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Roach Ag 2007 Corn Sell Signals 56 Days of Sell Signals ($3.91) and 272 Days Without ($3.71) © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Rule # 2 ,[object Object],© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Rule # 3 ,[object Object],© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Rule # 4 ,[object Object],© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Rule # 5 ,[object Object],© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Rule # 6 ,[object Object],© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract December 2009 Corn Sales © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
Who is Agro is a service-oriented company that brings back the philosophy of customer service and reliability.
Who is ,[object Object]
Agro entered the crop insurance market 2003
Agro National was established by Agro International, Inc. to serve the U.S. crop insurance market and to take advantage of the skills and management developed over the last 15 years in providing crop consulting expertise worldwide.,[object Object]
Why do business with ,[object Object]
Superior Claims Service
Innovative and unique crop Insurance products
Great hail programs and rates
Systems and Technology,[object Object]
113 AgroQuoter
AgroQuoter ,[object Object]
Ability to model a package for a producer to include all products together.
Additional product tabs will be shown if available
‘Loss Curtain’
Revenue at risk
On/Off switch
Values can be depicted separately by Level of Coverage in chart
Values can be depicted graphically by a specific Level of Coverage,[object Object]
Integrated w/ eCrop
User-friendly
Map based Acreage Reporting
Assist in reducing errors
Map Booklets
CIMS,[object Object]
117 CIMS Producer / Policy  Data ,[object Object]
Address
FSA Information
Summary
Email/Phone
Error Viewer,[object Object]
CIMS Policy borders, though not complete, have been released and are available in AgroWebMap.
When field borders are NOT present on a Policy, plus CIMS field borders are present for a policy, user will be prompted to load CIMS.
To load CIMS field borders, select (click) OK.
To by-pass the loading of CIMS field borders, select (click) Cancel.,[object Object]
Load CIMS field boundaries
Select (click) Add CIMS Fields button
Option to load with or without Rangeland field boundaries
After selecting (clicking) the ‘Add CIMS Fields’ button
Available Producer CIMS field borders will be loaded
Total field borders added
FSA numbers added,[object Object]

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