Startupfest 2017: David McRaney (Journalist - Author)
Startupfest 2017: David McRaney (Journalist - Author)
Missing what is missing: A healthy relationship with chaos and the psychology of luck Modern psychology has given us a much better understanding of luck. Often seen as serendipity, magic, and fanciful thinking, there's actually a lot of science behind it. Just as laypeople have an understanding of a coiled spring—seemingly simple, but governed by complex physical laws and interactions—so we can understand the deceptively simple notion of luck as the output of a set of behaviors. Best of all, we can now use that understanding to predict who is, and is not, likely to be lucky over time. In this talk, journalist and author David McRaney takes us on a tour of survivorship bias—the human tendency to associate success with traits of geniuses, entrepreneurs, superstars, blockbusters, etc., but to discount the role of luck in such outcomes. He'll explain what luck really is; and what we're truly noticing when we use that word to describe particular outcomes. Finally, he'll share what scientists say we ought to be doing if we'd like to experience more of that phenomenon in our lives and projects.
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- 1. David McRaney Lecture sources and links at: youarenotsosmart.com/lectures davidmcraney@gmail.com youarenotsosmart.com @davidmcraney @notsmartblog
- 3. Innovators Early Adopters Majority Saturation
- 17. Survivorship Bias The tendency to focus on survivors instead of whatever you would call a non-survivor depending on the situation Living / Dead Successes / Failures Winners / Losers After any process that leaves behind survivors, the non-survivors are often destroyed, muted, or removed from view. If failures become invisible, then naturally you will pay more attention to successes. Not only do you fail to recognize that what is missing might have held important information, you fail to recognize there is any missing information at all.
- 18. Mike Johnston theonlinephotographer.com Billy HathornDan Smith
- 20. “A stupid decision that works out well becomes a brilliant decision in hindsight.” Daniel Kahneman “Thinking Fast and Slow” “If you group successes together and look for what makes them similar, the only real answer will be luck.”
- 21. Richard Wiseman
- 22. “The harder they looked, the less they saw. And so it is with luck - unlucky people miss chance opportunities because they are too focused on looking for something else.” Unlucky People • Narrowly Focused • Crave Security • Fixated on Control • Prefer Routines Lucky People • Abandon Routines • Willing to Fail • Expose themselves to Chance • Shrug off Failure, Try Again
- 24. Successful people tend to make it more probable that unlikely events will happen to them.
- 25. David McRaney Lecture sources and links at: youarenotsosmart.com/lectures davidmcraney@gmail.com youarenotsosmart.com @davidmcraney @notsmartblog