1. Use of statistical
methods for forecasting
"DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS, ENTREPRENEURSHIP
AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION"
2. Forecasting market trends is an important task for many companies and organizations, which allows timely response to change
the economic environment and making informed decisions. Statistical methods are among the most advanced tools for
forecasting market trends.
Overview of methods of forecasting market trends using statistical methods
The main methods of forecasting market trends:
○ Expert assessments - a method that allows asking experts about their expectations for the future market and analyzing
○ Trend analysis - a method that takes place in the study of the trends of the relevant markets and uses them to forecast
○ The regression analysis method is a method used to study the relationship between certain changes and their impact
on the market.
○ The time series method is a method based on the analysis of statistical data for a certain period of time and uses them
to forecast future values.
○ Modeling method - a method that arises in the creation of a model and uses it to predict future development.
○ Signal and noise analysis method - a method used to detect signals (trends) and noise (random fluctuations) in the
3. Application of regression analysis for forecasting market trends
Regression analysis is one of the effective statistical methods for forecasting market trends. At the heart of regression analysis is
the relationship between the variable to be predicted (dependent variable) and other changes that can affect that dependent
change (independent variables). By analyzing the dependence between variables using regression models, it is possible to
predict the future value of the dependent variable based on the known values of the independent variables.
For example, if a company wants to forecast future sales of its product, it can collect data on sales of its product and on costs of
advertising, transportation, and other factors that may affect sales. By applying regression analysis, the company can establish
the relationship between these factors and sales, and based on this, predict future sales.
4. Using time series to forecast market trends
Time series is a tool that allows you to study the dependence of a certain indicator on time. These can be various
economic indicators, such as prices of goods, sales volumes, incomes of the population, etc.
Different methods are used to forecast market trends using time series, in particular:
● Exponential smoothing is a method that allows you to reduce the noise in the data and highlight
the main trends.
● ARIMA models - autoregression models with an integrated moving average, which allow
analyzing complex dependencies between indicators and forecasting their behavior in the future.
● Models with regression factors - models that worsen the influence of other factors on the
The use of time series allows you to make a forecast based on historical data and reduce the risk of making the
wrong decision when planning a business strategy. However, it is worth remembering that the results of forecasts
may be inaccurate, so it is necessary to use constant monitoring and adjust the strategy according to changes in the
market to the situation.
5. Comparison of different methods of forecasting market trends and their effectiveness
When forecasting market trends, there are several different methods that can be applied. Here are some of them and their
♦ Trend analysis method. The method is based on the analysis of changes in market trends in the past and their continuation in
the future. Application requires long-term information about its market. The main advantages of the method are its simplicity
and the ability to use it for long-term forecasting. However, the disadvantage is the risk of taking into account the effects of
seasonality and cycles in the market.
♦ Seasonality analysis method. This method is based on the analysis of cyclical fluctuations in sales or market demand
associated with certain periods of the year, for example, winter or summer. It is used to forecast the coming months and
seasons. The main advantage of the method is the ability to accurately predict seasonal fluctuations. However, the lack of
sufficient information about seasonal variations and their stability is lacking.
♦ Cycle analysis method. The method is based on this analysis of larger market cycles, such as business cycles or
economic fluctuations. It is used to forecast long-term market trends. The main advantage of the method is the
possibility of long-term trends in the market. However, the disadvantage is the need to have sufficient information
about cyclical deviations and their stability.
♦ Method of analysis of expert evaluations. The method is based on this collection of experts in the industry,
who give their predictions about the future development of the market. It is used in the absence of sufficient
information about the market. The main advantage of the method is the ability to receive qualified
assessments from experts. However, the disadvantage is the risk of increased subjectivity and unreliability of
6. Each method has its advantages and
disadvantages, so the choice of method depends
on the specific situation and available
information. A combination of different
methods can improve the quality of forecasting
market trends. For example, combining the
method of trend analysis and the method of
seasonality analysis allows you to get both
general trends and seasonal differences of the
market depending on time. In addition, the
method of time series forecast analysis can be
used to form market trends in complex
situations, for example, when the market
changes trend or seasonal dynamics.
It is also important to get that the quality of
forecasting depends on the quality of the source
data and the analysis of their reliability and
relevance. Therefore, before using any method
of forecasting market trends, it is necessary to
conduct an analysis of the quality of the initial
data and their preparation.