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Elad Sofer, profile picture
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Agile effort estimation

This document discusses effort estimation in agile projects. It recommends estimating tasks by relative size using story points rather than absolute time values. Planning poker, where a team privately selects effort estimate cards and then discusses them, is advocated as it emphasizes relative estimation and reduces anchoring bias. Velocity, the number of points a team can complete per iteration, is key for planning and adjusting for estimation errors over time. Burn down charts also increase visibility of progress.

Tecnologia◦
 
Effort estimation in agile projects Elad Sofer - Agile coach & Scrum master. Infrastructure scrum master – Nokia Siemens networks blog - http://eladsof.blogli.co.il LinkedIn - http://www.linkedin.com/in/eladsofer
How to estimate this task ?
What makes estimation agile ? Effort estimation Is not considered as a phase in the project Changes are expected, embrace change. Estimations are easily correctable. Estimate by feature not by activity Estimate by a multi-disciplinary team. And…
“ It’s better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.” [John Maynard Keynes [
Persistence of time
How long will it take to… Read the bible Drive to Paris ? Solve a math equation ? Add support for LDAP ?
34.4
Estimate tasks in relative size We are not good in measuring absolute values. We are good in comparing things. We have the basic math skills (or a calculator). High accuracy has a high toll. Estimates become commitments Time is not persistent.
Story points Name is derived from user stories. They reflect the “bigness” of a user story. How hard it is ? How risky it is ? How much of it there is ? Relative values matters. Unitless. Point values “include uncertainty”. Easy and quick A little effort helps a lot A lot of effort helps a little more
Estimation techniques Expert opinion Analogy Educated guess Disaggregating Planning poker
Planning poker Each person gets a deck of cards. The item to be estimated is read to all. Attendants ask clarifications for the item. Each person selects a card and puts it on the table facing down. When everyone is done, cards are exposed. If the estimations do not match a short discussion is done. -> Goto 4. Handle next item.
Why planning poker works ? Those who do the work estimate it. Emphasizes relative estimation Estimates are within one order of magnitude. Reduces anchoring - Everyone's opinion is heard.
Specification length One page spec Group A 7 Pages spec Group B 173 hours 117 hours
Irrelevant information Group A added irrelevant details: End user desktop apps Usernames & passwords Etc. Group B 39 hours 20 hours
Extra requirements Requirements 1-4 Group A Requirements 1-5 Group B 4 hours 4 hours Requirements 1-5 but told to estimate 1-4 only Group C 8 hours
Given anchor Group A Customer thinks 500 customer has no technical knowledge Don’t let the customer influence you Group B 555 hours 456 hours Same as B customer thinks 50 Group C 99 hours
Why planning poker works ? Those who do the work estimate it. Emphasizes relative estimation Estimates are within one order of magnitude. Reduces anchoring - Everyone's opinion is heard. Modeled for open discussion – forces thinking. It’s quick & fun !
How to calculate time ? S V T
Velocity How many points can the team complete in one iteration. Easy to measure. Fixes estimation errors. Easily reflects the project status. Primary parameter in planning.
Burn down charts Increase visibility Easy to understand. Updated automatically & immediately. Usually used on release & sprint level.
So what will it be ? vs + +