EVS Emerging Challenges

1. Environmental challenges to Agriculture and the emerging solutions A.K. Joshi Department of Genetics & Plant Breeding Institute of Agricultural Sciences Banaras Hindu University

12. Norin 10, the donor of the dwarfing gene which saved millions of lives

13. After 50 years of Green Revolution “w e need further efforts to feed the world, but the world is not the same”

14. Population increasing too much “more in developing countries” Sources: UN Population Division and Population Reference Bureau Developed 6.2 b 80%+ Developing

15. Most nations are short of money β -version of a high spatial resolution database of global income and poverty. Sub-national data compiled from country-level sources. Income was in many cases estimated from poverty incidence, and for countries with no data at all using regression models fitted with data from other countries in the region (see next slides). EU is income after taxes (and looks therefore too poor). R. Hijmans, IRRI; J. Dixon, CIMMYT

16. WDR: Three worlds of agriculture Urbanizing Agriculture based countries 82% of population in SSA Transforming countries 98% of population in SA 96% of EAP; 92% of MENA Urbanized countries 88% of population in ECA; 88% in LAC World Bank WDR, 2007

17. Environment is changing

18. e.g., Africa - Annual Precipitation Variation: 1988-98 (Hodson, CIMMYT) Variable Nature of Environments

20. Some environmental challenges – case study from India

21. Heat – a strategic issue for the S Asia Relative yield (+2 º C / current) for rice growing areas Also an issue for wheat and even maize, in different areas Change in yield (%) R. Hijmans, IRRI

23. Water scarcity Source: Ministry of Water Resources, Gov. India, 2006

24. Increasing Water Stress in Punjab Note: Figure in parentheses indicate stage of ground water use. A total of 137 blocks were assessed. Source: Planning Commission, 2007 J. Dixon, CIMMYT

26. Population changes Source: GPW. CIESIN/CIAT/FAO

28. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE n.a. – not applicable for Alaska, Northern Canada and Antarctica Source: Cline 2007 Impact on agricultural production with carbon fertilization (%)

30. Source: IEA and APERC, 2005 Gasoline Demand from Transport (MTOE)‏ 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 million tons oil equivalent India Brazil USA EU China

31. Growth rates of yields for major cereals in developing countries are slowing Source: World Development Report 2008 SLOWING AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH

32. Growth yield (% year) is decreasing: Wheat -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2 . 0 3.0 4.0 5.0 China India USA Russian Fed. France Canada Australia Germany Turkey Pakistan United Kingdom Argentina Iran Ukraine Kazakhstan Poland Italy Egypt Romania Spain Growth yield (%/year) 1966-79 1980-94

33. Solutions on the way?

34. Saving land through High-Yielding varieties Example: wheat in India 100 60 40 20 0 1961 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Million hectares Land Used Land Saved 80 1961 2000 Production, 11 76 Million tonnes Av. Yield. t/ha 0.85 2.90 Population, Millions 452 1,016 Source: FAOSTAT, 2002

37. Stay green plants; more heat and drought tolerance

39. Conservation Agriculture Saving environment and money and making agriculture sustainable

40. Transgenics!

44. Golden rice Rice grain White rice Golden rice

45. ‘ Golden Crops’ Source: Gerard Barry Source: Torbert Rocheford

48. GM Flower to detect landmines More than 100 million mines are spread over 45 countries

50. Land Mine Detection Mine detected

51. Feeding Future Populations World has the technology—either available or well-advanced in the research pipeline—to feed 10 billion people Extending the Green Revolution to many more food-insecure people will provide a better diet at lower prices

52. Thanks for your attention /kU;okn