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Image Sensors 2008 Final Revised V5

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This was the presentation I made during the Image Sensors 2008 conference in San Diego (Nov 17, 2008)

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Image Sensors 2008 Final Revised V5

  1. 1. Market Trends & Prognosis for Image Sensors A Perspective Shri Sundaram, Toshiba America Electronic Components, Inc.
  2. 2. Two technologies I could comment on…
  3. 3. What’s today’s agenda?
  4. 4. CCD Linear Sensors are structurally similar to CMOS Area Sensors Sensor Array Linear Sensor Area Sensor Read-out and Transport Charge Coupled Device (CCD) CMOS (Analog Memory) Output Analog (generally AFE is outside) Digital (generally integrated AFE) Timing Generator and Control
  5. 5. Linear Sensors have evolved on many fronts <ul><li>Size of the market </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Exponential growth </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Applications </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Military to consumer </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Products </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Past: few; Now: many! </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Technical </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Tougher engineering metrics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New packaging methods </li></ul></ul>Source of image: Google Images
  6. 6. Market size has witnessed explosive growth Suppliers have scaled their capacity Toshiba estimates In 1980s there were several suppliers of Linear Sensors In 2000s the 90% of the market is dominated by 3 vendors Top 3 vendors have scaled their capacities to meet today’s demand
  7. 7. Consumer needs driving product development <ul><li>1970s: Space and military applications </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Push Broom technique: An aircraft with a linear sensor moves over terrain in a regular pattern to reconstruct the image below strip-by-strip! </li></ul></ul><ul><li>1980s: Commercial applications </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Plain paper copiers, Fax Machines, Bar Code Readers, Spectrometers </li></ul></ul><ul><li>1990s: Consumer products </li></ul><ul><ul><li>All-in-ones for offices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Multifunction peripherals </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2D bar code scanners </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2000s: More consumer & home applications </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Coffee makers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Microwave ovens </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Other home appliances </li></ul></ul>
  8. 8. Consumer use has driven unit cost down! Toshiba estimates Unit costs are based on estimates
  9. 9. Large portfolio of products driven by multiple applications and market tiers MFPs At least 3-4 different types of MFPs High end Scanners At least 3-4 different types PPCs At least 4 categories of PPCs BCRs At least 2-3 types Based on evolution of Toshiba products
  10. 10. Tougher engineering metrics have led to better performance at lower unit cost Based on evolution of Toshiba products Better vertical resolution More details in the scan Better horizontal resolution <ul><li>Eng metrics have led to : </li></ul><ul><li>Feature improvements in image quality performance; while reducing unit cost of sensor. </li></ul><ul><li>Innovations such as Single Layer CCD, TDI, OFD, ICG, and many more… </li></ul>
  11. 11. Packaging technologies evolved for ease of manufacturing & maximizing performance Here too, packaging has evolved to provide improvements in image quality, performance and also offering lower cost and ease of manufacturability
  12. 12. Linear Sensors have evolved on many fronts <ul><li>Size of the market </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Exponential growth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Suppliers scaled their capacity </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Applications </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Military to consumer </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consumers have driven unit cost down </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Products </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Past: few; Now: many! </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Suppliers have a large product portfolio </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Technical </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Tougher engineering metrics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New packaging methods </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Better products for less </li></ul></ul>Source of image: Google Images
  13. 13. <ul><li>Evolution of CMOS Area Sensors </li></ul>MARKETS, APPLICATIONS, PRODUCTS WHAT HAVE WE OBSERVED SO FAR…
  14. 14. Market size is witnessing an explosive growth . 97* 98* 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 Area CMOS IS Shipments 2,000 4,000 6,350 14,600 19,300 33,300 46,300 217,300 391,500 873,200 1,058,000 1999-2007 figures: In-Stat, Oct. 2008 *1997-1998 figures: Toshiba estimates
  15. 15. Here too…Consumer needs are driving product development The world before camera phones
  16. 16. Over the last 5-6 years two applications have come to dominate the landscape
  17. 17. Consumer use dominating the application landscape  Cost per unit has come down 1997 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 DSC Built-in PC camera Camera Phones VGA VGA VGA 1-3MP >5MP Source: Toshiba VGA Module ASP
  18. 18. Packaging technologies are evolving for both high performance and manufacturability Toshiba estimates
  19. 19. Tougher engineering metrics are leading to better performance at lower unit cost Based on evolution of Toshiba products Smaller Pixels Smaller Image Pipeline logic Larger Fill Factor Lower Cross talk More pixels Higher Resolution Eng metrics will lead to feature improvements in image quality, performance and while reducing the unit cost of the sensor… Let’s see how…
  20. 20. Eng metrics will evolve providing better performance at lower unit cost
  21. 21. VENDORS OF LINEAR SENSORS AND AREA SENSORS <ul><li>Evolution and Consolidation </li></ul>
  22. 22. Industries evolve through four stages… <ul><li>Study of 1,345 large mergers completed over 13 years </li></ul><ul><li>An industry moves through 4 stages in about 25 years; in the future it may be faster! </li></ul><ul><li>Every company in every industry will go through these four stages—or disappear. </li></ul>*THE CONSOLIDATION CURVE; HBR Dec 2002; M/S. Deans, Kroeger, Zeisel
  23. 23. We have lived through these four stages… been there seen that Linear Image Sensor Business (~ 20 years)
  24. 24. We are only half way there with Area Sensors… long way before the market matures *HBR Dec 2002; M/S. Deans, Kroeger, Zeisel Linear Image Sensor Business (~ 20 years) CMOS Area Sensor Business (~ 10 years)
  25. 25. Area Sensors have a long way to go; yet offer a glimpse of what to expect… Area figures: In-Stat, Oct. 2008 & Toshiba estimates Linear figures: Toshiba estimates
  26. 26. <ul><li>Summary </li></ul>
  27. 27. Summary <ul><li>Evolution of linear image sensors offers an excellent reference to that of the area image sensors </li></ul><ul><ul><li>This is not just our experience, but is a well known tool in the business world </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Technology will follow usual pattern of Smaller, Faster, Cheaper, Better </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>We have seen with Linear Sensors (and, are preparing for CMOS Area sensors) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>CMOS area sensor industry is, perhaps, half way through an evolutionary consolidation cycle </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Look out for the likely TITANS; industry consolidation is a natural process </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>We have lived through this consolidation in the linear sensors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Your best bets are with those that will survive the consolidation </li></ul></ul>
  28. 28. [email_address] <ul><li>Thank you </li></ul>
  29. 29. REFERENCES <ul><li>Appendix </li></ul>
  30. 30. Reference Class <ul><li>Reference Class: A group of similar business situations. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Often yields comparative data that are an invaluable reality check. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>In the case of CMOS “area” image sensors for mobile phones, one could look at three different reference classes. </li></ul>Ideal Reference class *The McKinsey Quarterly; November 2005 &quot;Beating the odds in market entry&quot; by M/S Horn, Lovallo, Viguerie
  31. 31. Reduction-type scan system design Structure of Image Scanner Structure of Carriage
  32. 32. Contact Image Sensor Module CIS TG
  33. 33. Wide range of application for CCD Linear Sensors <ul><li>Linear Image Sensors are most commonly used in: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Photocopiers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fax Machines </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bar Code Readers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Spectrometers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Surface Scanners </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Check Sort Machines </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Whiteboard </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Multifunction Peripherals (or) Printers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>All-in-one (AIO) machines (Printer/Scanner/Fax) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Many more… </li></ul></ul>