O slideshow foi denunciado.
Utilizamos seu perfil e dados de atividades no LinkedIn para personalizar e exibir anúncios mais relevantes. Altere suas preferências de anúncios quando desejar.

PyMCがあれば,ベイズ推定でもう泣いたりなんかしない

31.641 visualizações

Publicada em

ベイズ推定の基本とPyMCによる簡単な実装例です.

関連資料: https://github.com/scipy-japan/tokyo-scipy/tree/master/006/shima__shima

Publicada em: Dados e análise
  • DOWNLOAD THIS BOOKS INTO AVAILABLE FORMAT (Unlimited) ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... Download Full PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/yyxo9sk7 } ......................................................................................................................... Download Full EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/yyxo9sk7 } ......................................................................................................................... ACCESS WEBSITE for All Ebooks ......................................................................................................................... Download Full PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/yyxo9sk7 } ......................................................................................................................... Download EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/yyxo9sk7 } ......................................................................................................................... Download doc Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/yyxo9sk7 } ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... .............. Browse by Genre Available eBooks ......................................................................................................................... Art, Biography, Business, Chick Lit, Children's, Christian, Classics, Comics, Contemporary, Cookbooks, Crime, Ebooks, Fantasy, Fiction, Graphic Novels, Historical Fiction, History, Horror, Humor And Comedy, Manga, Memoir, Music, Mystery, Non Fiction, Paranormal, Philosophy, Poetry, Psychology, Religion, Romance, Science, Science Fiction, Self Help, Suspense, Spirituality, Sports, Thriller, Travel, Young Adult,
       Responder 
    Tem certeza que deseja  Sim  Não
    Insira sua mensagem aqui
  • DOWNLOAD THIS BOOKS INTO AVAILABLE FORMAT (Unlimited) ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... Download Full PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... Download Full EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... ACCESS WEBSITE for All Ebooks ......................................................................................................................... Download Full PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... Download EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... Download doc Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... .............. Browse by Genre Available eBooks ......................................................................................................................... Art, Biography, Business, Chick Lit, Children's, Christian, Classics, Comics, Contemporary, Cookbooks, Crime, Ebooks, Fantasy, Fiction, Graphic Novels, Historical Fiction, History, Horror, Humor And Comedy, Manga, Memoir, Music, Mystery, Non Fiction, Paranormal, Philosophy, Poetry, Psychology, Religion, Romance, Science, Science Fiction, Self Help, Suspense, Spirituality, Sports, Thriller, Travel, Young Adult,
       Responder 
    Tem certeza que deseja  Sim  Não
    Insira sua mensagem aqui
  • DOWNLOAD THIS BOOKS INTO AVAILABLE FORMAT (Unlimited) ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... Download Full PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/yyxo9sk7 } ......................................................................................................................... Download Full EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/yyxo9sk7 } ......................................................................................................................... ACCESS WEBSITE for All Ebooks ......................................................................................................................... Download Full PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/yyxo9sk7 } ......................................................................................................................... Download EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/yyxo9sk7 } ......................................................................................................................... Download doc Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/yyxo9sk7 } ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... .............. Browse by Genre Available eBooks ......................................................................................................................... Art, Biography, Business, Chick Lit, Children's, Christian, Classics, Comics, Contemporary, Cookbooks, Crime, Ebooks, Fantasy, Fiction, Graphic Novels, Historical Fiction, History, Horror, Humor And Comedy, Manga, Memoir, Music, Mystery, Non Fiction, Paranormal, Philosophy, Poetry, Psychology, Religion, Romance, Science, Science Fiction, Self Help, Suspense, Spirituality, Sports, Thriller, Travel, Young Adult,
       Responder 
    Tem certeza que deseja  Sim  Não
    Insira sua mensagem aqui
  • DOWNLOAD THIS BOOKS INTO AVAILABLE FORMAT (Unlimited) ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... Download Full PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/yyxo9sk7 } ......................................................................................................................... Download Full EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/yyxo9sk7 } ......................................................................................................................... ACCESS WEBSITE for All Ebooks ......................................................................................................................... Download Full PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/yyxo9sk7 } ......................................................................................................................... Download EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/yyxo9sk7 } ......................................................................................................................... Download doc Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/yyxo9sk7 } ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... .............. Browse by Genre Available eBooks ......................................................................................................................... Art, Biography, Business, Chick Lit, Children's, Christian, Classics, Comics, Contemporary, Cookbooks, Crime, Ebooks, Fantasy, Fiction, Graphic Novels, Historical Fiction, History, Horror, Humor And Comedy, Manga, Memoir, Music, Mystery, Non Fiction, Paranormal, Philosophy, Poetry, Psychology, Religion, Romance, Science, Science Fiction, Self Help, Suspense, Spirituality, Sports, Thriller, Travel, Young Adult,
       Responder 
    Tem certeza que deseja  Sim  Não
    Insira sua mensagem aqui
  • DOWNLOAD THIS BOOKS INTO AVAILABLE FORMAT (Unlimited) ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... Download Full PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... Download Full EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... ACCESS WEBSITE for All Ebooks ......................................................................................................................... Download Full PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... Download EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... Download doc Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/y6a5rkg5 } ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... .............. Browse by Genre Available eBooks ......................................................................................................................... Art, Biography, Business, Chick Lit, Children's, Christian, Classics, Comics, Contemporary, Cookbooks, Crime, Ebooks, Fantasy, Fiction, Graphic Novels, Historical Fiction, History, Horror, Humor And Comedy, Manga, Memoir, Music, Mystery, Non Fiction, Paranormal, Philosophy, Poetry, Psychology, Religion, Romance, Science, Science Fiction, Self Help, Suspense, Spirituality, Sports, Thriller, Travel, Young Adult,
       Responder 
    Tem certeza que deseja  Sim  Não
    Insira sua mensagem aqui

PyMCがあれば,ベイズ推定でもう泣いたりなんかしない

  1. 1. 1
  2. 2. • • • • • • • 2
  3. 3. 3
  4. 4. 4 Pr[✓|x] = Pr[x|✓] Pr[✓] P ✓ Pr[x|✓] Pr[✓]
  5. 5. 5
  6. 6. 6
  7. 7. 7 • • •
  8. 8. 8 Pr[ θ, Z, D ] Pr[ θ | D ] Z D
  9. 9. 9 X y2Dom(Y ) Pr[X, y] = Pr[X] X y2Dom(Y ) Pr[y|X] = Pr[X] ⇥ 1 + =
  10. 10. 10 Pr[✓, D] = Pr[✓|D] Pr[D] Pr[✓|D] = Pr[✓, D] Pr[D] D Z D D Pr[✓|D] = Pr[✓, D] Pr[D] = Pr[✓, D] P ✓ Pr[✓, D] = Pr[D|✓] Pr[✓] P ✓ Pr[D|✓] Pr[✓]
  11. 11. 11 • • • • • •
  12. 12. 12 1. N Poisson(ξ) 2. θ Dirichlet(θ ; α) 3. For n in 1, …, N (a) zn Categorical(zn | θ) (b) wn Categorical(wn | zn; β)
  13. 13. 13 z, z=1, . . . , K M N ✓ t ↵ w
  14. 14. 14 1. N Poisson(ξ) 2. θ Dirichlet(θ ; α) 3. For n in 1 … N (a) zn Categorical(zn | θ) (b) wn Categorical(wn | zn; β) ✤ Pr[w, z, ✓; ↵, ] = Pr[✓|↵] NY n=1 Pr[zn|✓] Pr[wn|zn, zn ]
  15. 15. 15
  16. 16. 16 • • • • • • • • • •
  17. 17. 17 1. μ Normal(0.0, 0.12) 2. For i in 1 … N (a) xi Normal(μ, 1.02) μ x N • x • μ Pr[µ|x1, . . . , xN ] = Pr[µ|{x}]
  18. 18. 18 • • • • •
  19. 19. 19 mu = Normal('mu', 0, 1 / (0.1 ** 2)) ✤
  20. 20. x 20 x = Normal('x', mu=mu, tau=1/(1.0**2), value=x_sample, observed=True) x
  21. 21. 21 M = MCMC(input=[mu, x]) M.sample(iter=10000) ✤
  22. 22. 22 Matplot.plot(mu)
  23. 23. 23 1. p Beta(1.0, 1.0) 2. μ0 Normal(-1, 1.0) 3. μ1 Normal(1, 1.0) 4. For i in 1 … N (a) yi Bernoulli(p) (b) μ = μ0 if yi = 0; μ1 if yi = 1 (c) xi Normal(μ, 1.02) y x N ✤ xi p μ0 μ1
  24. 24. 24 @deterministic(plot=False) def mu(y=y, mu0=mu0, mu1=mu1): out = np.empty_like(y, dtype=np.float) out[y == 0] = mu0 out[y == 1] = mu1 return out
  25. 25. 25
  26. 26. • • • • • • • • • 26

×