The document discusses key concepts in randomized clinical trials (RCTs), including:
1) RCTs are considered the gold standard for evaluating the effectiveness of interventions due to their ability to minimize bias through randomization and blinding.
2) Proper randomization aims to create comparable treatment and control groups, conceal allocation to prevent bias, and may involve simple, stratified or blocked methods.
3) Blinding (masking) of participants, investigators and assessors can decrease observation bias and is important for RCT validity, though full blinding is not always possible.
4) Intention-to-treat analysis includes all randomized patients to preserve comparable groups and prevent bias from non-compliance.
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Critical appraisal of randomized clinical trials
1. Critical appraisal of randomized clinical trials
Samir Haffar M.D.
Assistant Professor of Gastroenterology
2. Trial design
Based on RCTs
• Systematic review
• Meta-analysis
• Randomized controlled trial
• Cohort study
• Case control study
• Cross-sectional study
• Case series & case report
3. Hierarchy of evidence in quantitative studies
McGovern D, Summerskill W, Valori R, Levi M. Key topics in EBM.
BIOS Scientific Publishers, 1st Edition, Oxford, 2001.
4. Perhaps the first large-scale clinical trial using
a properly designed randomized schema
5. Sir Austin Bradford Hill (1897-1991)
British epidemiologist & statistician
The father of modern RCTs
6. Sir Austin Bradford Hill
• Studied medicine when World War 1 intervened
• Pilot in the World War 1
• Contracted TB: 2 years hospital -2 years convalescence
• Took a degree of Economics by correspondence
• 1922 Attended statistical lectures by Karl Pearson
• 1933 Reader in Epidemiology &Vital Statistics
• 1947 Professor of Medical Statistics
• 1950-52 President of the Royal Statistical Society
7. First RCT in the United States
* Rheumatic Fever Working Party. Circulation 1960 ; 22 : 505 – 15.
NIH started a study of adrenocorticotropic
hormone (ACTH), cortisone & aspirin in the
treatment of rheumatic heart disease*
1951
8. Number of RCT per year
Glasziou P, Del Mar C. Evidence based practice workbook.
Blackwell Publishing, 2nd edition, 2007.
≈ 20,000 trials published each year
> 500,000 trials in total
9. Basic structure of a RCT
Parallel trial
Akobeng AK. Arch Dis Child 2005 ; 90 : 840 – 844.
Parallel trial is the most frequently used design
10. Basics of RCT – 1
• Participants
Patients – relatives of pts – healthy volunteers – groups
• Investigators
People who design & carry out study & analyze results
• Interventions
Preventive strategies, screening, & treatments
Jadad AR, Enkin MW. Randomized control trials.
Blackwell Publishing, 2nd ed, 2007.
11. Placebo
Inert pills that appear identical to trial therapy
Gold standard therapy
It may be unethical to treat patient with placebo
New treatment
Basics of RCT – 2
Jadad AR, Enkin MW. Randomized control trials.
Blackwell Publishing, 2nd ed, 2007.
Control group should receive one of the following:
12. • Quantitative studies (quantified outcomes)
• Most rigorous method of hypothesis testing
• Experimental studies versus observational studies
• Gold standard to evaluate effectiveness of interventions
RCTs are regarded as
Basics of RCT – 3
Jadad AR, Enkin MW. Randomized control trials.
Blackwell Publishing, 2nd ed, 2007.
13. Some historical examples of treatments
with dramatic effects
• Insulin for diabetes
• Blood transfusion for severe hemorrhagic shock
• Defibrillation for ventricular fibrillation
• Neostigmine for myasthenia gravis
• Tracheotomy for tracheal obstruction
• Drainage for pain associated with abscesses
• Pressure or suturing for arresting hemorrhage
Glasziou P et al. Br Med J 2007 ; 334 : 349 – 351.
14. Parachutes reduce risk of injury after gravitational challenge
Their effectiveness has not been proved with RCTs
Glasser SP. Essentials of clinical research. Springer, 1st edition, 2008
15. Ethics committee
• Include:
Layman, religious man, lawyers, researchers & clinicians
• Responsibilities:
Protect rights & welfare of research subjects
Determine if the potential benefits warrant the risks
Ensure that informed consent is obtained
Prevent unscientific or unethical research
16. The trial team
• Principal investigator
• Trial coordinator or manager
• Trial programmer
• Data manager or clerks
• Trial statistician Planning phase
Interim analyses
Final analysis
• Trial secretary
17. Randomized controlled trial
Sample size
Randomization
Blinding (Masking)
Outcomes
Intention to treat analysis (ITT)
Measurement of treatment effect
Applicability of results to your patients
Critical appraisal
18. Flow diagram for a RCT
Attia J & Page J. Evid Based Med 2001 ; 6 : 68 – 69.
19. Attia J & Page J. Evid Based Med 2001 ; 6 : 68 – 69.
Sample size in RCTs
20. The “Universe” & the “Sample”
Glasser SP. Essentials of clinical research. Springer, 1st edition, 2008
21. Statistical inference
Making statistical inferences about a population
from a sample by means of significance test & CI
Wang D, Bakhai A. Clinical trials: practical guide to design, analysis, & reporting.
Remedica, London, UK, 1st edition, 2006.
22. Component of sample size calculation
Type I error (α) False positive = 0.05
Type II error (β) False negative = 0.20
Power (1- β)
Event rate in control group
Event rate in treatment group
Schulz KF, Grimes DA. Lancet 2005 ; 365 : 1348 – 53.
23. Randomization in RCTs
If the study wasn‟t randomized
we‟d suggest that you stop reading it
24. Attia J & Page J. Evid Based Med 2001 ; 6 : 68 – 69.
Randomization in RCTs
If the study wasn‟t randomized
we wound suggest that you stop reading it
25. Goal of randomization
Comparable groups to known prognostic factors
Beta-Blocker Heart Attack Trial - Baseline comparisons
Propranolol Placebo
(N-1,916) (N-1,921)
Average Age (yrs) 55.2 55.5
Male (%) 83.8 85.2
White (%) 89.3 88.4
Systolic BP 112.3 111.7
Diastolic BP 72.6 72.3
Heart rate 76.2 75.7
Cholesterol 212.7 213.6
Current smoker (%) 57.3 56.8
Table comparing baseline characteristics presented in RCT reports
27. 2 principles of randomization
• First They must define the rules that will govern
allocation
• Second They should follow the same rules strictly
throughout the whole study
Regardless of the method of randomization used,
investigators should follow two principles
28. Simple randomization
Inacceptable
• Toss of a coin
• Date of birth (even numbers to group A)
• Hospital admission number
• Date seen in clinic Patients seen this week (group A)
Those seen next week (group B)
Problems arise from openness of allocation system
29. Allocation concealment
• Sealed opaque envelope
Investigator open several envelopes before allocation
Allocation seen if envelope held against bright light
• Remote randomization (preferred)
Assignment removed from those making assignments:
By telephone – Over the internet
Randomization should be distant
& separate from clinicians conducting the trial
30. RCT of open vs. lap appendectomy
• Trial ran smoothly during the day
• Surgeon‟s presence required for lap procedure at night
• Residents at night held semiopaque envelopes up to light
& opened first envelope that dictated open procedure
• First eligible patient in the morning allocated to lap group
• If patients seen at night sicker than those seen in the day,
this behavior bias results against open procedure
Hansen J et al. World J Surg. 1996 ; 20 : 17 – 20.
31. Schulz KF et al. JAMA 1995 ; 273 : 408 – 12.
Estimates of treatment effect exaggerated
by 40% in trials with unconcealed
compared with concealed randomization
32. Blinding in RCTs
Attia J & Page J. Evid Based Med 2001 ; 6 : 68 – 69.
33. Blinding /masking in RCTs
Attia J & Page J. Evid Based Med 2001 ; 6 : 68 – 69.
34. Blinding or masking
• Keep one or more of the people involved in the trial
unaware of the intervention that is being evaluated
• Purpose: decrease risk of observation bias
• What matters
Not the number of people blinded during a trial
But the number & role of those who are not blinded
Blinding is not always appropriate or possible
35. • Participants
• Investigators who administer interventions
• Investigators taking care of the participants
• Investigators assessing the outcomes
• Data analyst
• Investigators who write results of the trial
Blinding or Masking
Blinding can be implemented in at least 6 levels in RCTs
Usually
the same
36. Blinding
Sometimes called masking
• Single blind Only patients or only investigators
are ignorant of assigned treatment
• Double blind Patients & investigators
are ignorant of assigned treatment
• Triple blind Patients, investigators & data evaluators
are ignorant of assigned treatment
37. Blinding or masking
Depending on blinding extent, RCTs classified as
• Open label (everyone aware)
• Single-blind
• Double-blind
• Triple-blind
• Quadruple-blind & so on
38. The term ‘double-blind RCT’, so often used
to represent the ultimate in design to
produce valid results, is confusing
Jadad AR, Enkin MW. Randomized control trials.
Blackwell Publishing, 2nd ed, 2007.
39. Why is blinding so important?
• Trials that were not double blinded yielded larger
estimates of treatment effects than double blinded
trials (OR exaggerated on average by 17%)
• Blinding is weaker than allocation concealment in
preventing biases
Schulz KF. Evid Based Nurs 2000 ; 5 : 36 – 7.
40. A humorous example of blinding/masking
Glasser SP. Essentials of clinical research. Springer, 1st edition, 2008
41. Outcomes in RCTs
Attia J & Page J. Evid Based Med 2001 ; 6 : 68 – 69.
42. Outcomes in RCTs – 1
• One primary outcome (usually)
Most important outcome (stroke in carotid endarterectomy)
• Composite outcomes (sometimes – can mislead)
- Drug in MI: death, non fatal MI, hospitalization for ACS
- Validity depends on similarity in patient importance,
treatment effect, & number of events across components
- Abandoned if large variations exist between components
Montori VM. Br Med J 2005; 330 : 594 – 596.
Primary outcome
43. Used in case of rare events of clinical importance
Studies in cytoprotection of NSAIDs
Endoscopic ulcers surrogates of bleeding or perforated PU
Outcomes in RCTs – 2
Surrogate outcomes
Secondary outcomes (usually multiple)
Other variables important to research question (drugs SE)
Too much emphasis if no change in primary outcome
44. Serious GI Events
Clinical Ulcers
Endoscopic Ulcers
Relative Severity
GI Symptoms
Relative Frequency
NSAID-related GI side effects
45. Intention to treat analysis (ITT)
Attia J & Page J. Evid Based Med 2001 ; 6 : 68 – 69.
46. Participants who not complete the study
• Some participants would not complete the study because
of misdiagnosis, non-compliance, or withdrawal
• When such patients excluded from analysis, we can no
longer be sure that important prognostic factors in the
2 groups are similar which lead to potential bias
• To reduce this bias, results should be analyzed on an
„intention to treat‟ basis
47. Intention to treat analysis
Form of quality control rather than analytic tool
• Strategy in conduct & analysis of RCT ensuring that all
patients allocated to treatment or control groups analyzed
together as representing that treatment arm whether or
not they received prescribed therapy or completed study
• Randomized participants = Analyzed participants
McGovern D, Summerskill W, Valori R, Levi M. Key topics in EBM.
BIOS Scientific Publishers, 1st ed, Oxford, 2001.
48. Measurement of treatment effect
Attia J & Page J. Evid Based Med 2001 ; 6 : 68 – 69.
49. Measurement of treatment effect in RCTs
• p value (p)
• Relative Risk (RR)
• Odds Ratio (OR)
• Confidence Intervals (CIs)
• Number Needed to Treat (NNT)
Data analyzed as trial proceeds (interim analysis)
or at the ends of the trial
50. Probability value (p Value)
• p value is probability that observed difference between
2 treatment groups might occur by chance
• Many use p value of 0.05 as cut off for significance
p < 0.05 Observed difference between groups is so
unlikely to have occurred by chance
Considered as statistically significant
p > 0.05 Observed difference between groups might
have occurred by chance
Considered as not statistically significant
51. • p > 0.05 Statistically insignificant
• p < 0.05 Statistically significant
Probability value (p value)
Statistically
significant
Clinically
significant
Doesn't
mean
52. Statistical versus clinical significance
• Pentoxifylline vs placebo in PAD* (1992)
40 patients randomized to pentoxifylline or placebo
Maximum pain-free walking distance longer in
pentoxifylline group than in placebo group (p < 0.001)
Conclusion: pentoxiphylline clinically effective
• Close examination of data:
Difference in maximum walking distance: 3.5 feet
Doctors & patients consider it not clinically significant
* PAD: Peripheral Arterial Disease
McGovern D et al. Key topics in EBM. BIOS Scientific Publishers, Oxford, 2001.
53. Risk & Relative Risk (RR)
Number of patients fulfill criteria for a given end point
divided by total number of patients
i.e.: Diarrhea during tt with antibiotic in 4 of 10 patients
Risk of patients: 4 / 10 = 0.4
Diarrhea in control group in 1 of 10 persons
Risk of controls: 1 / 10 = 0.1
• Risk
Risk of patient / risk of control group
RR: 0.4 / 0.1 = 4
• Relative Risk
54. Odds & Odds Ratio (OR)
Number of patients fulfill criteria for given endpoint
divided by number of patients who do not
i.e.: Diarrhea during tt with antibiotic in 4 of 10 patients
Odds of patients: 4 / 6 = 0.66
Diarrhea in control group in 1 of 10 persons
Odds of controls: 1 / 9 = 0.11
• Odds
Odds of patients / odds of control group
OR = 0.66 / 0.11 = 6
• Odds Ratio
56. Interpretation of RR & OR
RR or OR should be accompanied by their CIs
RR or OR > 1
Increased likelihood of outcome in treatment group
RR or OR < 1
Decreased likelihood of outcome in treatment group
RR or OR = 1
No difference of outcome between tt & control group
57. Odds ratio or relative risk?
OR will be close to RR if endpoint occurs infrequently (<15%)
If outcome is more common, OR will differ increasingly from RR
Altman DG et all. Systematic reviews in health care: Meta-analysis in context.
BMJ Publishing Group, London, 2nd edition, 2001.
58. Significance of CI
• When we test a new Crohn‟s disease drug on randomly
selected sample of patients, the treatment effect we will
get will be an estimate of the „„true‟‟ treatment effect for
the whole population of patients with CD in the country
• 95% CI of estimate will be range within which we are
95% certain the true population treatment effect will lie
59. Confidence intervals
Value 95 % CI are commonly used
90 or 99% CI are sometimes used
Width of CI Indicates precision of the estimate
Wider the interval, less the precision
CI includes 1 No statistically significant difference
CI doesn‟t include 1 Statistically significant difference
60. Statistical significance & CI
(a) Statistically significant , low precision
(b) Statistically significant, high precision
(c) Not statistically significant, low precision
(d) Not statistically significant, high precision
Glasziou P et al. Evidence based practice workbook. Blackwell, 2nd edition, 2007.
61. Influence of sample size on CI precision
Width of CI (precision of the estimate)
decreases with increasing sample size
Peat JK, et al. Health science research. Allen & Unwin, Australia, 1st ed, 2001.
62. Confidence interval or p value?
• Authors of articles could report both p values & CIs
• CI convey more useful information than p values
• If only one is to be reported, then it should be the CI
• p value is less important & can be deduced from CI
63. Number Needed to Treat (NNT)
• Relative Risk (RR)
Risk in treatment group / risk in control group
• Relative Risk Reduction (RRR)
1 – RR
• Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR)
Risk in control group – risk in treatment group
• NNT (expressed in clinically relevant way)
1 /ARR
64. • p value (p)
• Relative Risk (RR)
• Odds Ratio (OR)
• Confidence Intervals (CIs)
• Number Needed to Treat (NNT)
Measurement of treatment effect in RCTs
65. Subgroup analysis
Post-hoc analysis
• In large trials not demonstrating overall favorable trend,
it is common to conduct subgroup analyses to find one
or more subgroups in which treatment “really works”
• Literature is replete with unconfirmed subgroup findings
• Post-hoc results should be regarded as inconclusive
• May be of value for hypothesis generation
66. ISIS-2 trial - Subgroup analysis
• Effects of streptokinase &/or aspirin on short-term
mortality in patients admitted with AMI
• Mortality benefits for both active interventions
• In subgroup analyses:
– Patients born under Zodiac signs of Gemini & Libra
5% higher mortality on aspirin vs placebo
– Patients born under other Zodiac signs
30% lower mortality on aspirin vs placebo
Sleight P. Curr Control Trials Cardiovasc med. 2000;1(1):25-27.
68. It is very difficult to make a judgment if statistics
used in a study are appropriate & applied correctly
69. Furberg BD & Furberg CD. Evaluating clinical research.
Springer Science & Business Media , 1st ed, 2007.
70. Wang D, Bakhai A. Clinical trials: practical guide to design, analysis, & reporting. Remedica,
London, 1st Edition, 2006.
Basic understanding of medical statistics will
enable us to detect the more obvious errors
71. Applicability of results to your patients
Attia J & Page J. Evid Based Med 2001 ; 6 : 68 – 69.
72. External validity
Applicability of results to your patients
Issues needed to consider before deciding to
incorporate research evidence into clinical practice
* Guyatt G, et al. User‟s guide to the medical literature.
Essentials of evidence based clinical practice. Mc Graw Hill, 2nd edition, 2008.
• Similarity of study population to your population
• Benefit versus harm
• Patients preferences
• Availability
• Costs
75. Furberg BD & Furberg CD. Evaluating clinical research.
Springer Science & Business Media – First Edition – New York – 2007.
76. Internal & external validity of a RCT
Attia J & Page J. Evid Based Med 2001 ; 6 : 68 - 69.
77. • Internal validity of a trial
– Randomization
– Blinding (Masking)
– Follow-up
– Outcomes
– Analysis
– Biases
Critical appraisal of a RCT
• External validity of a trial (generalizability)
– Applicability of results to your patients
78. Benefit versus harm
“All that glisters is not gold”
W. Shakespeare
In “The Merchant of Venice”
Furberg BD & Furberg CD. Evaluating clinical research.
Springer Science & Business Media – First Edition – New York – 2007.
79. Bias
• Difference between the study results & the truth
• Of course, we can never know the truth, but we try to
come as close as possible by performing & using
well-designed & well executed studies
• Non-systematic bias (random error or chance)
Occurs to similar extent in all subjects for both group
Predictable – Less important than systematic bias
• Systematic bias (non-random error)
Most serious type of bias: under or over-estimation
* Guyatt G, et al. User‟s guide to the medical literature.
Essentials of evidence based clinical practice. Mc Graw Hill, 2nd edition, 2008.
80. Main types of biases in RCTs
Biases Types
During planning phase of a RCT Choice-of-question bias
Regulation bias
Wrong design bias
Jadad AR, Enkin MW. Randomized control trials. Blackwell Publishing, 2nd ed, 2007.
During course of a RCT Selection bias
Observation bias
Population choice bias
Intervention choice bias
Control group bias
Outcome choice bias
During reporting of a RCT Withdrawal bias
Selective reporting bias
Fraud bias
81. Fraud bias
John Darsee (Harvard researcher in cardiology)
• Fabricated data in a study on dogs in 1981
• Fabricated data during his:
- Undergraduate days [Notre Dame University, (1966-70)]
- Residency & fellowship [ Emory University, (1974-79)]
- Fellowship [Brigham & Women‟s, Harvard, (1979-81)]
• > 100 papers & abstracts most in prestigious journals
• His coauthors had too little contact with the research
Listed over their objections (had been helpful in the past)
82. Lessons learned from the Darsee’s affair
Little can be done to stop unscrupulous scientist even
when he collaborates with knowledgeable colleagues
Inability of peer review to detect the fraud
Need for explicit guidelines & oversight for collection,
maintenance, & analysis of data in clinical trials
Focus on responsibilities & contributions of coauthors
Misconduct investigations may need to examine a
researcher‟s entire work over many years
Lock S, Wells F, Farthing M. Fraud & misconduct in biomedical research.
BMJ Publishing Group, London, 3rd Edition, 2001.
83. Darsee was found to have had a long history of faking
his results in different projects & in different settings
One of the lessons learned from Darsee’s case
„Once a crook, often always a crook‟
Lock S, Wells F, Farthing M. Fraud & misconduct in biomedical research.
BMJ Publishing Group, London, 3rd Edition, 2001.
84. Existing tools to assess trial quality
• Several components grouped in
Scales Each item scored numerically
Overall quality score is generated
Checklists Components evaluated separately
No numerical scores
• Systematic search of literature in 1995 identified
25 scales & 9 checklists for assessing trial quality*
* Moher D et all. Controlled clinical trials 1995 ; 16 : 62 – 73.
85. The Jadad scale
Scores: 0 - 5 points – Poor quality if ≤ 2 points
Jadad AR, Enkin MW. Randomized control trials.
Blackwell Publishing, 2nd Ed, 2007.
86. Appraising a RCT (checklist) – 1
Are the results valid?
During trial Was trial blinded & to what extent?
At end of trial Was follow-up complete?
Was ITT principle applied?
Was the trial stopped early?
Guyatt G, et al. User‟s guide to the medical literature.
Essentials of evidence based clinical practice. Mc Graw Hill, 2nd ed, 2008.
Were the patients randomized?
Was the randomization concealed?
Similar prognostic factors in 2 groups?
At start of trial
87. What are the results?
8- How large was the treatment effect?
9- How precise was estimate of treatment effect (CI)?
How can I apply the results to patient care?
10- Were the study patients similar to my patient?
11- Were all patient-important outcomes considered?
12- Are the likely treatment benefits worth harm & cost?
Guyatt G, et al. User‟s guide to the medical literature.
Essentials of evidence based clinical practice. Mc Graw Hill, 2nd ed, 2008.
Appraising a RCT (checklist) – 2
88. Scales or checklists?
No consensus on which is preferable
•CDSR: Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews
Moher D et all. Health Technol Assess 1999 ; 3 (12).
Quality assessment in systematic reviews
Medical journals CDSR*
Number of SR 78 SR in 204 journals 36 SR
Checklists 20/78 (26%) 92 %
Scales 52/78 (67%) None
89. * Altman DG et al. Ann Intern Med 2001 ; 134 : 663 - 94.
Improving quality of reports
Quality of
Reporting of
Meta-analyses
Meta-analysis
QUOROM**
Consolidated
Standards of
Reporting Trials
RCTs
CONSORT*
Diagnostic
accuracy study
STARD***
Standards for
Reporting of
Diagnostic Accuracy
** Moher D et al. Lancet 1999 ; 354 : 1896 - 900.
*** Bossuyt PM et all. BMJ 2003; 326 : 41 – 44.
90. CONSORT statement
Targeted authors of trial reports rather than readers
• Experts Clinical epidemiologists, journal editors,
& biostatisticians published CONSORT statement
• Aim Improve standard of written reports of RCTs
• Results Latest version of CONSORT statement includes2
Flow diagram: Patients progress through a trial
Checklist: 22 items
1 Begg C, et all. JAMA 1996 ;276 (63): 7 – 9.
2 Moher D, et al. CMAJ 2004 ; 171 : 349 – 350.
91. Flow diagram of a RCT
Ann Intern Med 2001 ; 134 : 657 – 662.
92. CONSORT statement
Ann Intern Med 2001 ; 134 : 657 - 662.
Paper Section & Topic Item Descriptor Reported on
Page No
Title & abstract 1 How participants allocated to interventions
Introduction background 2 Scientific background
Methods Participants
Interventions
Objectives
Outcomes
Sample size
Randomization
Blinding (masking)
Statistical methods
3
4
5
6
7
8-9-10
11
12
Criteria for participants, settings, locations
Details of interventions for each group
Specific objectives & hypotheses
Defined primary & secondary outcomes
How sample size was determined?
Allocation concealment, implementation
Whether or not blinding applied
Statistical methods used
Results Participant flow
Recruitment
Baseline data
Numbers analyzed
Outcomes, estimation
Ancillary analyses
Adverse events
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Flow diagram strongly recommended
Periods of recruitment & follow-up
Baseline characteristics of each group
No of participants in each group
Summary of results with 95% CI
Subgroup & adjusted analyses
All important adverse events
Comment Interpretation
Generalizability
Overall evidence
20
21
22
Interpretation of the results
External validity of trial findings
General interpretation of results
93. Reasons for doing RCTs
• Only study design that can prove causation
• Required by FDA (and others) for new drugs
and some devices
• Most influential to clinical practice
94. Disadvantages of RCTs
• Expensive: typically in $ millions
• Time consuming: typically years
• Can only answer a single question
• May not apply to some patients in practice
• May not be practical
• Generally difficult to get funded
• Organizationally complex
95. Carefully conducted observational studies may
provide more evidence than poor RCTs*
* Guyatt G, et al. User‟s guide to the medical literature.
Essentials of evidence based clinical practice. Mc Graw Hill, 2nd edition, 2008.
** Jadad AR, Enkin MW. Randomized control trials.
Blackwell Publishing, 2nd ed, 2007.
Unfortunately, a perfect trial can only
exist in our imagination**
96. High quality/relevant data – Pearls
Glasziou P, Del Mar C & Salisbury J. Evidence based medicine Workbook.
BMJ Publishing Group, 1st ed, London, 2003.
Pearls selected from the rest of lower quality literature
Streptomycin and bedrest (S case) or by bedrest alone (C case).
Without Bradford Hill, randomisation would have come about sooner or later, perhaps introduced by Rutstein in the United States. Rutstein collaborated with Bradford Hill in the design of an AngloAmerican trial of adrenocorticotrophic hormone, cortisone, and aspirin in the treatment of acute rheumatic fever.
Probably approaches 20.000/year
A sample of the population of interest is randomly allocated to one or another intervention and the two groups are followed up fora specified period of time. Apart from the interventions being compared, the two groups are treated and observed in anidentical manner. At the end of the study, the groups are analysed in terms of outcomes defined at the outset. The results from, say, the treatment A group are compared with results from the treatment B group. As the groups are treated identically apart from the intervention received, any differences in outcomes are attributed to the trial therapy.In paralel design: each group exposed only to one of study interventions.
People behave differently when included in a trial (Hawthorne effect)Employees of Hawthorne Works of Western Electric Company in Chicago participated in a study to evaluate effect of light levels on work performance.Surprisingly, work performance increased, regardless of whether level of light at workplace was increased, kept constant, or decreased.Special attention given to workers participated in the study explains improvement in overall performance
RCTs are ‘experiments’ because the investigators can influence the number and the type of interventions, as well as the regimen(amount, route, and frequency) with which the interventions are applied to the participants. This is in contrast to other types of studies, called ‘observational’, in which the events are not influenced by the investigators.
Layman: شخص عادي
When the sample size of a study is too small, it may be impossible to detect any true differences in outcome between the groups. Such a study might be a waste of resources and potentially unethical. Frequently, however, small sized studies are published that claim no difference in outcome between groups without reporting the power of the studies.Researchers should ensure at the planning stage that there are enough participants to ensure that the study has a high probability of detecting as statistically significant the smallest effect that would be regarded as clinically important.
Inference: استدلال استنتاج
In clinical research, hypothesis testing risks two fundamental errors. First, researchers can conclude that two treatments differ when, in fact, they do not. This type I error (α) measures the probability of making this false-positive conclusion. Conventionally, α is most frequently set at 0.05, meaning that investigators desire < 5% chance of making a false-positive conclusion.Second, researchers can conclude that two treatments do not differ when, in fact, they do—ie, a false-negative conclusion. This type II error (β) measures the probability of this false-negative conclusion. Conventionally, investigators set at 0.20, meaning that they desire < 20% chance of making a false-negative conclusion.Usually, we recommend estimating the event rate in the population and then determining a treatment effect of interest. For example, investigators estimate an event rate of 10% in the controls. They then would estimate an absolutechange (eg, an absolute reduction of 3%), a relative change (a relative reduction of 30%), or simply estimatea 7% event rate in the treatment group.If only small improvements in the outcome measurements between groups are expected, as may be the case for many chronic diseases, or if the expected outcome occurs infrequently in either group, then a large sample size will be required before these differences achieve statistical significance.
The larger the sample size, the more likely randomization will achieve its goal of prognostic balance.Known prognostic factors:Patient’s ageSeverity of illnessComorbidityHost of other factorsUnknown prognostic factors: Although we will never know whether similarity exists for the unknown prognostic factors, we are reassured when the known prognostic factors are well balanced.
Concealment: إخفاء - كتمان
Concealment: إخفاء – كتمان
Conceal: يكتم – يخفي
Anyone of the many people who are involved in a trial can distort its results, if they know the identity of the intervention while it is administered or assessed.Moreover, unlike allocation concealment, blinding is not always appropriate or possible. For example, in a RCT where one is comparing enteral nutrition with corticosteroids in the treatment of children with active Crohn’s disease, it may be impossible to blind participants and health care professionals to assigned intervention, although it may still be possible to blind those analyzing the data, such as statisticians.
Patients: Patients who are aware that they are receiving what they believe to be an expensive new treatment may report being better than they really are. Doctors: The judgment of a doctor who expects a particular treatment to be more effective than another may be clouded in favor of what he perceives to be the more effective treatment. Analysts: When people analyzing data know which treatment group was which, there can be the tendency to ‘‘overanalyze’’ the data for any minor differences that would support one treatment. It is important for authors of papers describing RCTs to state clearly whether participants, researchers, or data evaluators were or were not aware of assigned treatment.
Confusing: يربك - يشوش
The terms blinding and masking are used interchangeably.Blinding is not always appropriate or possible. For example, in a RCT where one is comparing enteral nutrition with corticosteroids in the treatment of children with active Crohn’s disease, it may be impossible to blind participants and health care professionals to assignedintervention, although it may still be possible to blind those analyzing the data, such as statisticians.
Endpoint:A clearly defined outcome associated with an individual subject in clinical research. Outcomes may be based on safety, efficacy, or other study objectives (eg, pharmacokinetic parameters). An endpoint can be quantitative (eg, systolic blood pressure, cell count), qualitative (eg, death, severity of disease), or time-to event(eg, time to first hospitalization from randomization).ACS: Acute coronary syndrome
Surrogate: بديل
Patients who are lost often have different prognoses from those who are retained:- they may disappear because they have adverse outcomes - or because they are doing well and so did not return for assessment.
However, after randomisation, it is almost inevitable that some participants would not complete the study for whateverreason. Participants may deviate from the intended protocol because of misdiagnosis, non-compliance, or withdrawal.When such patients are excluded from the analysis, we can no longer be sure that important baseline prognostic factorsin the two groups are similar. Thus the main rationale for random allocation is defeated, leading to potential bias.To reduce this bias, results should be analyzed on an ‘intention to treat’ basis.
Interim: مؤقت
PAD: peripheral arterial diseaseReference: Key topics in EBM, oxford, 2001. What clinicians and patients require is evidence that the treatments improve outcomes that are important to patients (patient-important outcomes), such as avoiding hospitalization for heart failure, or decreasing the risk of myocardial infarction.
Odds ratio (OR) and risk ratio (RR):probability of having an event between two groups exposed to a risk factor or treatment.
Odds Ratio:we could estimate the odds of having versus not having an event.
CI is important because it gives an idea about how precise an estimate is. The width of the interval indicates the precision of the estimate. The wider the interval, the less the precision.A very wide interval may indicate that more data should be collected before anything definite can be said about the estimate.
NNT:Number of people who need to receive a treatment in order to achieve the required outcome in one of them.
Interim: مؤقت
Replete: متخم – مليءSample size calculations only provide sufficient statistical power to test the main hypotheses and need to be multiplied by the number of levels in the subgroups in order to provide this additional power.We encourage you to be skeptical of subgroup analyses. The treatment is likely to benefit the subgroup more or less than the other patients only if the difference in theeffects of treatment in the subgroups is large and very unlikely to occur by chance. Even when these conditions apply, the resultsMay be misleading if investigators did not specify their hypotheses before the study began, if they had a very large number of hypotheses, or if other studies fail to replicate the finding.
No plausible biological explanation for this observationGemini: الجوزاءLibra: الميزان
Libra:الميزان Gemini: الجوزاء
Critical appraisal: Application of rules of scientific evidence to assess the validity of the results of a study. Validity: Extent to which an instrument accurately measures what we want it to measure.
Validity: صلاحية
Of all the aspects of a trial that have been used to define and assess quality, internal validity is the least context dependent and, as far as we know, the only one that has been the subject of the few empirical studies available.Because of this, we strongly recommend that any assessment of the quality of a trial includes elements related to internal validity.
John R Darsee M.D., 34-year-old clinical investigator. One of his paper was published in 1981 in the New England Journal of Medicine. More ink has been shed on Darsee’s case than on any other because: - it was the first major publicised case that was not an isolated blemish on the face of science (not mad – rather, bad)- it concerned prestigious institutions, co-authors, and journals- the charismatic personality of one of the central figures- it started the whole debate about the rights and wrongs of authorship (particularly gift authorship), data retention, the supervision of juniors, and the management of suspected cases of fraud.There was also the realization of the pressure to publish – and not merely important work but anything that showed a department’s activity, though the results should somehow be positive. Finally, the case also shifted the whole climate of feeling of trust to thinking the unthinkable – the possibility that things might not be as they seemed.There was also the new concept: once a crook, often always a crook – Darsee was found to have had a long history of faking his results in different projects and in different settings.
2- Inability of peer review to detect the fraud:Most of Darsee’s work was peer reviewed by good editorial processes and was able to pass without suspicion.4- Focus on the responsibilities & contributions of coauthorsTo be a coauthor requires substantial input into study design, analysis, interpretation, and writing of the research report.
Crook: محتال - لص
Scales: مقياس
The Jadad scale is not the only, or always most appropriate, way to assess trial quality, but it is the most widely used, and appears to produce robust and valid results in an increasing number of empirical studies.
5- Was Follow-up Complete?Patients who are lost often have different prognoses from those who are retained—they may disappear because they have adverse outcomes or because they are doing well and so did not return for assessment.When does loss to follow-up seriously threaten validity?Rules of thumb (you may run across thresholds such as 20%)7- Was the study stopped early?Truncated randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are trials stopped early because of apparent harm,because the investigators have concluded that they will not be able to demonstrate a treatment effect (futility), or because of apparent benefit. Believing the treatment from RCTs stopped early for benefit will be misleading if the decision to stop the trial resulted from catching the apparent benefit of treatment at a random high.