2013-->2040 a PATH to PEACE

Rest of the World
RUSSIA
USA
NAFTA
136
States
CEM
EPP
INDIA CHINA
2013 à 2040 :
A path to Peace© copyright PSDE – July 2013 – www.psde.fr - contact@psde.fr - 19, av. du Mail 1205 Geneva, Switzerland – tel: + 41 78 670 7778
1/36

Europe 2013-2040 : the path to economic success
2/36
!
!
Achieving a high and!
sustainable!
growth !
© copyright PSDE – July 2013 – www.psde.fr - contact@psde.fr - 19, av. du Mail 1205 Geneva, Switzerland – tel: + 41 78 670 7778

Source: McKinsey Global Institute, The Emerging Equity Gap: Growth And Stability In The New Investor Landscape (2011).
Who owns the world ?
Western Europe goes from 34% down to 22% in only twenty years
Markets’ share of financial assets, 2000-2020
3/36

UE 28
(2013)
4/36
an unfinished !
business!
in need of !
new solutions!

EuroFederation
within the EU
(2019)
only 3 states
to start with
5/36
2019 = Big Bang !

The new EUROFEDERATION: sustainable growth and prosperity engine for Europe
u  Third economic power after USA and China
u  A federal republic with headquarters in Strasbourg for
Its government, parliament and judiciary institutions
u  Taking inspiration from the Swiss federation model
u  Business-friendly, with fiscal and administrative
alignment in favor of entrepreneurs and SMEs
u  Harmonization of welfare measures, improving the
so-called European social model
u  Compliant with the Lisbon treaty, ensuring safe working
continuity with existing EU institutions
u  Created by same-day popular vote in the three
countries (2019)
u  Three official languages (Deutsch, Français, Italiano)
u  EuroFederation budget set at 1% of GDP (in addtion
to the existing 1% EU budget contribution )
u  Will treat only matters that are clearly better solved at
federal rather than national level
(environment, defense, economy, common standards…)
The EuroFederation is the necessary founding step that
decisively improves European growth perspectives
u  209 millions inhabitants
(5 th world rank )
u  Enhancing and developing French
Overseas territories
u  Total area: 1.3 million km2
(20 th world rank)
STRASBOURG
6/36

The EuroFederation will generate sustainable economic
growth for Europe, Russia and Mediterranean countries.
this federal implementation will be, like in Switzerland :
v  Non-centralizing
v  Protecting local habits and traditions
v  Pragmatic
v  Respectful and wary of existing EU practices
v  Symbolic of the new, genuine tri-national view
v  Reassuring and comforting for all EU member states
The creation of this new federal republic within the EU will require a
great deal of political courage from French, German and Italian
citizens.
National sovereignty for the three countries involved has been
already dwindling over the last decades, due to on-going strong
globalization processes. All democratic political parties will have
to explain to voters the new deal: exchange the disappearing
Illusion of national sovereignty against the growing reality of
Federal sovereignty considered at world level.
Once the Eurofederation of the Three has proven its success,
It will become possible to extend it to other interested EU members.
In no circumstances will the eurofederation process put into question
the due building and workings of the EU institutions. On the contrary,
The EuroFederation must always look for ways to strengthen
EU integration and validate EU work.
STRASBOURG
7/36
The new EUROFEDERATION: sustainable growth and prosperity engine for Europe

Living standards differences in the 63 EuroFederation regions
Germany: 16 länder incl. 3 city-states
France: 27 regions incl. 5 overseas
Italy: 20 regions incl. 5 autonomous
Above German average
Between French and German averages
Between Italian and French averages
below Italian average and above 20 k euros
below 20 000 euros per annum per person in PPPSource: Eurostat, mars 2013
WHY ITALY? POURQUOI L’ITALIE ? WARUM ITALIEN ?
One of the six EU founding states (since 1958)
Similar size to France and Germany
Democratic way to surpass the old franco-german couple
Low external debt (compaired to France)
Innovation and industrial success of Italian SMEs
Italy strengthens EuroFederation economy (rank 3 ww)
Italy is a rich country (except for its Mezzogiorno ie south)
France and Germany also have their own Mezzogiorno
(Overseas and former east-germany Lander)
EuroFederation is easier with 3 states (rather than 6 or more)
8/36

Population EUROFEDERATION base 2011
Germany 81'831'000 39%
France 65'967'771 32%
Italy 60'820'787 29%
total EuroFed 208'619'558 100%
POPULATION
EUROZONE
base
2011

Eurofedera/on
208'619'558
63%

Austria
8'210'281
2%

Belgium
10'839'905
3%

Cyprus
1'056'776
0.3%

Spain
46'951'532
14%

Estonia
1'307'605
0.4%

Finland
5'244'749
2%

Greece
10'737'428
3%

Ireland
4'156'119
1%

Luxembourg
503'302
0.2%

Malte
403'532
0.1%

Netherlands
17'042'909
5%

Portugal
10'317'192
3%

Slovakia
5'455'407
2%

Slovenia
2'007'711
1%

Total
Eurozone
332'854'006
100%

41%
24%
12%
8%
4%
2%
9%
EUROFEDERATION
OTHER Eurozone
UK
Poland
Romania
Sweden
Other EU28
Popula2on
EU28
base
2011

EUROFEDERATION
208'619'558
41%

OTHER
Eurozone
124'234'448
25%

UK
63'182'180
12%

Poland
38'511'824
8%

Romania
19'042'936
4%

Sweden
9'059'651
2%

Other
EU28
43'315'632
9%

Total
EU28
505'966'229
100%

9/36

Area
EUROFEDERATION
base
2011

Germany
357'021
29%

France
552'000
46%

Italy
301'230
25%

total
EuroFed
1'210'251
100%

Area
EUROZONE
base
2011

Eurofedera/on
1'210'251
46%

Austria
83'870
3%

Belgium
30'528
1%

Cyprus
9'250
0.4%

Spain
505'580
19%

Estonia
45'226
2%

Finland
338'145
13%

Greece
131'940
5%

Ireland
70'280
3%

Luxembourg
2'586
0.1%

Malta
316
0.01%

Netherlands
41'526
2%

Portugal
92'042
3%

Slovakia
48'845
2%

Slovenia
20'273
1%

Total
Eurozone
2'630'658
100%

Area
EU28

EUROFEDERATION
1'298'545
29%

OTHER
Eurozone
1'420'407
32%

UK
244'820
5%

Poland
312'685
7%

Romania
237'504
5%

Sweden
449'964
10%

Other
EU28
512'227
11%

Total
EU28
4'476'152
100%

29%
32%
6%
7%
5%
10%
11%
EUROFEDERATION
OTHER Eurozone
UK
Poland
Romania
Sweden
Other EU28
km2
10/36

GDP
EUROFEDERATION
base
2011

Germany
3'601
42%

France
2'773
32%

Italy
2'194
26%

total
EuroFed
8'568
100%

GDP
EUROZONE
base
2011

Eurofedera/on
8'568
65%

Austria
418
3%

Belgium
514
4%

Cyprus
25
0.2%

Spain
1'477
11%

Estonia
22
0.2%

Finland
263
2%

Greece
290
2%

Ireland
218
2%

Luxembourg
59
0.5%

Malta
9
0.1%

Netherlands
836
6%

Portugal
237
2%

Slovakia
96
1%

Slovenia
50
0.4%

Total
Eurozone
13'082
100%

GDP
EU28
base
2011

EUROFEDERATION
8'568
48%

OTHER
Eurozone
4'514
26%

UK
2'445
14%

Poland
515
3%

Romania
190
1%

Sweden
540
3%

Other
EU28
879
5%

Total
EU28
17'651
100%

EUROFEDERATION
48%
OTHER
Eurozone
26%
UK
14%
Poland
3%
Romania
1%
Sweden
3%
Other EU28
5%
11/36

New EU
with Turkey
and Ukraine
33 states
(2023)
12/36
2023 :!
Final EU enlargment !

The new EUROPEAN UNION
u  2023 : final EU enlargement
u  Turkey and Ukraine new member states
u  Brussels becomes the only EU capital before 2028
u  Within the new EU, the EuroFederation acts as an
institutional pillar and secures respect of founding EU values
u  The Eurozone creates a de facto good operational link
between EuroFederation and EU institutions
u  The ECB will be able to issue Eurobonds and will receive
mandate to sustain economic growth in addition to fight
inflation
u  Strengthening of political, institutional, cultural
and economic ties with Russia
u  Decisive re-launch of Euro-Mediterranean partnership
u  Active workgroups on defining the future CEM
u  New EU Budget is automatically set at 1% of the
total GDP of the 33 member states
13/36

POPULATION
new
EU

EuroFedera/on
208'619'558
33%

Pays
septentrionaux
-‐
North
122'678'439
19%

MielEuropa
105'201'772
17%

Pays
méridionaux
-‐
South
79'703'953
13%

Turkey
74'924'269
12%

Ukraine
45'515'596
7%

Total
EU33
636'643'587
100%

EuroFédération
33%
Pays
septentrionaux
19%
MittelEuropa
17%
Pays
méridionaux
12%
Turquie
12%
Ukraine
7%
Northern countries
Pays septentrionaux :
Benelux
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
Ireland
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
Sweden
UK
14/36

AREA
new
EU

EuroFedera/on
1'210'251
21%

Pays
septentrionaux-‐
North
1'395'958
23%

MielEuropa
1'042'521
18%

Pays
méridionaux-‐
South
861'178
15%

Turkey
780'580
13%

Ukraine
603'700
10%

Total
EU33
5'894'188
100%

EURO
FEDERATION
22%
Pays
septentrionaux
23%
MittelEuropa
18%
Pays
méridionaux
14%
Turquie
13%
Ukraine
10%
MittelEuropa :
Austria
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech rep.
Hungary
Macedonia
Montenegro
Romania
Serbia
Slovakia
Slovenia
km2
15/36

GDP
new
UE

base
2011

EuroFedera/on
8'568
46%

Pays
septentrionaux
-‐
North
5'302
28%

MielEuropa
1'743
9%

Pays
méridionaux
-‐
South
2'098
11%

Turkey
775
4%

Ukraine
165
1%

Total
UE33
18'651
100%

EuroFédération
46%
Pays
septentrionaux
29%
MittelEuropa
9%
Pays
méridionaux
11%
Turquie
4%
Ukraine
1%
Southern countries
Pays méridionaux :
Cyprus,
Spain,
Greece,
Malta,
Portugal
16/36

New EU
ready for CEM
(2028)
17/36
BRUXELLES
2028 : Brussels!
only EU capital !

CEM: Confederation of Eurasia & The Mediterranean
(2030)
18/36
Peace, Civilization & Sustainable growth

19/36
BRUXELLES
Success of EU is necessary!
for CEM existence !
The EU is part of
the CEM.
Respect and
mutual support
between CEM and
EU institutions.
The EU is the
political and
administrative
pillar of the CEM.
The CEM brings
credibility and
strength to the EU
and to Russia
in terms of military
economical,
and cultural powers.

20/36
WIEN
ISTANBUL
KALININGRAD
u  1 and only one capital for the EUROFEDERATION : STRASBOURG
u  1 and only one capital for the new EU : BRUSSELS
u  3 distinct capitals for the CEM
u  KALININGRAD : seat of Executive part for CEM government
u  VIENNA : Administrative, Judiciary and Financial seat for CEM
u  ISTANBUL : CEM Parliament seat

European
Union
33 member states :
EU 28 as of today and:
+ Macedonia
+ Montenegro
+ Serbia
+ Turkey
+ Ukraine
EuroFederation
3 republican states :
+ Germany
+ France
+ Italy
Confederation of

Eurasia & the Mediterranean
55 countries :
UE33
+ Albania + Algeria + Armenia
+ Azerbaijan + Belorussia
+ Bosnia-Herzegovina + Cisjordania
+ Egypt + Gaza + Georgia
+ Greenland + Island
+ Israel + Kosovo-south
+ Lebanon + Libya
+ Morocco + Moldavia
+ Norway + Russia
+ Syria + Tunisia
Euro-Priority
Partnership
Structured neighborhood policy with the
12 countries who share a common
terrestrial border with the Confederation
21/36

GDP
CEM
base
2011

New
EU
18'651
84%

Russia
1'858
8%

Arc/c
countries
501
2%

Balkans/East/Transcaucasia
186
1%

South
Mediterranean
405
2%

Proche-‐Orient
Near-‐East
587
3%

Total
CEM
22'187
100%

POPULATION
CEM

New
EU
636'643'587
62%

Russia
143'056'383
14%

Arc/c
countries
5'020'358
0.5%

39'755'042
4%

South
Mediterranean
85'674'507
8%

Proche-‐Orient

Near-‐East
119'870'166
12%

Total
CEM
1'030'020'043
100%

Area
CEM
in
km2

New
EU
5'894'188
18%

Russia
17'075'200
53%

Arc/c
countries
2'593'306
8%

512'864
2%

South
Mediterranean
5'015'741
16%

Proche-‐Orient
Near-‐East
1'223'866
4%

Total
CEM
32'315'165
100%

Arc$c
countries
:

Greenland,
Island
and
Norway

Balkans/
East
/
Transcaucasia:

Albania,
Armenia,
Azerbaijan

Belarus,
Bosnia-‐Herzegovina

Georgia,
Kosovo-‐south

Moldavia

Proche-‐Orient:
NEAR-‐EAST

Egypt

Cisjordania

Israel

Gaza

Lebanon

Syria

22/36

GDP
COMPARAISON

base
2011

EuroFedera/on
8'568
39%

Eurozone
13'082
59%

New
EU
18'651
84%

South
Mediterranean
405
2%

Russia
1'858
8%

Other
CEM
1'274
6%

Total
CEM
22'187
100%

Popula2on
COMPARAISON

base
2011

EuroFedera/on
208'619'558
20%

Eurozone
332'854'006
32%

New
EU
636'643'587
62%

South
mediterranean
85'674'507
8%

Russia
143'056'383
14%

Other
CEM
164'645'566
16%

CEM
1'030'020'043
100%

Area
COMPARAISON

EuroFedera/on
1'298'545
4%

Eurozone
2'718'952
8%

New
EU
5'982'482
18%

South
Mediterranean
5'015'741
15%

Russia
17'075'200
53%

Other
CEM
4'330'036
13%

CEM
32'403'459
100%

Southern Med countries
Sud méditerranéen :
Algeria
Libya
Morocco
Tunisia
23/36

CEM after 2030 : first world power
12 neighbor-partners, 1 billion citizens, 2nd military power, 1st economy
24/36
u  Balancing USA and China world influence
u  CEM is made of 55 states è CEM is soft power
u  Area CEM : 32.4 million km2
USA : 9.9 million km2
China : 9.8 million km2
u  Population est. 2030 CEM : 1.1 billion hab.
USA: 0.5 billion hab.
China : 1.4 billion hab
u  GDP base 2011 CEM : 22 187 billion $
USA : 14 991 billion $
China : 7 319 billion $
u  GDP est. 2040 CEM : 35 570 billion $ agr 1.7%
USA : 34 298 billion $ agr 3.0%
China : 31 741 billion $ agr 5.0%
u  After 2040 average growth rates will probably be similar for
the three economies at around 2% per annum
u  CEM budget = 0.5% of GDP for the 55 States

CEM after 2040 : +
EPP with the 12 neighbour-states from outside Europe
25/36
EPP : European Priority Partnership : EuroPartenariat Prioritaire

Mauritania

Mali

Niger

Chad

Soudan

Jordan

Iraq

Iran

Kazakhstan

Mongolia

China

North
Korea

EPP : European Priority Partnership
= CEM neighborhood policy
u  EPP Partner states are NOT part of Europe nor part of CEM
u  EPP consists in jointly funded co-projects negotiated one by one
u  EPP programs are pragmatic, ad-hoc and flexible
u  Each EPP project is financed 50% by the CEM (as a group) and
50% by the partner state (or states) directly involved in the project
u  Partner states are totally free and do not commit to anything
except funding (or not) for each joint EPP project
u  EPP is made of 12 very different partnerships
è EPP is NOT united or monolithic
u  EPP budget has two sources:
0.1% of GDP for the 55 CEM States
and
funds allocated by some partner states on a 50-50 basis
à  22 billion $ per year (base 2011) on the CEM side
à 44 billion maximum if all project budgets are met by Partner states
u  In the CEM, projects and budgets are voted by the CEM parliament,
managed by CEM executives based in Kaliningrad,
and audited by CEM controllers based in Wien (Vienna, Austria)
u  Like all other CEM programs, choice of projects are made according
to the 3 main criteria:
- Peace (e.g. exchange programs)
- Civilization (e.g. cultural events)
- Sustainable prosperity (e.g. green innovations)
26/36

GDP
COMPARAISON

base
2011

EuroFedera/on
8'568
39%

Eurozone
13'082
59%

New
EU
18'651
84%

South
Mediterranean
405
2%

Russia
1'858
8%

CEM
22'187
100%

CEM
22'187
31.7%

Canada
1736

USA
14991

Mexico
1153

total
Bloc
NAFTA
17880
25.5%

Australia
1379

India
1873

Brazil
2477

Indonesia
847

Japan
5867

Nigeria
244

South
Africa
408

Saudi
Arabia
577

Argen/na
446

total
Naba+
cem+
epp+
big9
62'282
89%

Rest
of
the
world
7'718
11.0%

World
total
70000
100%

GDP
EPP

base
2011

in
billion
$

Mauritania
4

Mali
11

Niger
6

Chad
11

Soudan
64

Jordan
29

Iraq
115

Iran
338

Kazakhstan
188

Mongolia
9

China
7319

North
Korea
3

total
EPP
12
countries
8097
11.6%

27/36

28/36
CEM: a 21st century view of the new ecopolitical world order
CEM: une vision contemporaine du nouvel ordre mondial

Source: USA National Intell. Comm. Dec, 2012 page 101 www.dni.gov/nic/globaltrends
consensus view: Elements of Power of Leading Countries in 2030
29/36

CEM
EPP
NAFTA
Big 9
Reste
Du Monde
100 % 100 %100 %
Relative weight of CEM and EPP in the world : population, area and GDP
CEM : Confederation Eurasia Mediterranean : 55 states (EU 33 + Russia + 21 states)
EPP: European Priority Partnership : 12 states ( China + Kazakhstan + 10 states)
NAFTA : USA + Canada + Mexico
Big 9 : Brazil + India + Japan + Australia + Indonesia+ Saudi Arabia + Argentina + Nigeria + South-Africa
Rest of the world: 136 states (206 – 55 – 12 – 3 – 9 = 136 states as per UN definition)
14.7
24
31.7
22.6
17
11.6
6.6
16
25.525.9
21
20.2
30.2
22
11
% Pop % Superf % Pib
30/36

14.7
24
31.7
22.6
17
11.6
6.6
16
25.525.9
21
20.2
30.2
22
11
% Pop % Superf % Pib
37.3% 41%
45.7%
43.3%
CEM
EPP
NAFTA
Big 9
Rest
of the world
Vers un monde multipolaire plus équilibré, cohérent et harmonieux
Towards a more balanced, coherent and harmonious multipolar world
37%
32.5%
31/36

Rest of the world
RUSSIA
USA
NAFTA
136
States
CEM
EPP
INDIA CHINA
22%
24%
17%21%
16%
32/36
Vers un monde multipolaire plus équilibré, cohérent et harmonieux
Towards a more balanced, coherent and harmonious multipolar world

2019 à 2023 à 2030 à 2040 à
En travaillant tous ensemble, ces perspectives deviennent réalisables.
Working together, we can achieve all this.
Let’s make it happen !!
33/36

EURO
FEDERATION
NEW
EU CEM EPP
2019 à 2023 à 2030 à 2040 à
3 stable political bodies, working seamlessly together
and completed with a clear, structured neighborhood policy
In order to achieve the 3 objectives of Peace, Civilization and sustainable Prosperity
34/36
3 stable
co-operating
organisations
with a clear
neighborhood
policy

Join us today !
Pour nous rejoindre
www.grande-europe.org
www.sdpe.org www.psde.fr
Paix Civilisation Ecoprospérité
Nos cercles de réflexion!
Our Thinktanks!
Le parti politique
The political party
35/36

Rest of the World
RUSSIA
USA
NAFTA
136
States
CEM
EPP
INDIA CHINA
2013 à 2040 : towards a peaceful
NEW WORLD ORDER
36/36

2013-->2040 a PATH to PEACE

Recomendados

Recomendados

Mais conteúdo relacionado

Destaque

Destaque (6)

Semelhante a 2013-->2040 a PATH to PEACE

Semelhante a 2013-->2040 a PATH to PEACE (20)

Último

Último (8)

2013-->2040 a PATH to PEACE