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Flood rings: Paleoflood evidence in tree-ring anatomy

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Many of the decisions we make about environmental issues are based on experience. Whether we're setting limits for the use of scarce resources, estimating the risks posed by natural hazards, or deciding how to manage protected areas, our plans for the future often reflect our understanding of the past. The problem is that, when it comes to the environment, our society has a fairly short memory. In this presentation, Dr. St. George will discuss how the study of ancient trees is expanding our perspective on the natural history of the northern Plains and helping to answer questions about what the future may hold for Minnesota's environment.

IonE Frontiers, Through The Trees

In many settings, trees growing on floodplains provide an important source of indirect evidence that may be used to infer the occurrence, extent, and magnitude of floods prior to direct observations. That evidence may take several forms, including external scars caused by abrasion or impact from floating debris, anatomical changes within the annual growth increment following prolonged stem or root inundation, or tilting or uprooting due to the hydraulic pressure of floodwaters. Likely the most useful characteristic of paleoflood studies based on floodplain trees is their relatively high temporal resolution and dating accuracy compared to most other methods. Dendrochronological methods can routinely date past floods to the year of their occurrence and, in rare cases, can estimate the timing of floods that occur during the growing season to within two weeks. This high degree of chronological control, which is surpassed only by that provided by direct observation or instrumentation, can be used to determine whether floods in separate watersheds were synchronous or offset by several years and test hypotheses that suppose linkages between extreme floods and specific forcing mechanisms. Furthermore, the wide geographic distribution of tree species with dateable rings combined with the broad suite of methods available to examine interconnections between floods and tree growth allow this style of paleoflood hydrology to be applied to many settings that are not suitable for techniques that depend on geological evidence. Future paleoflood research involving tree rings will need to strike a balance between improving our understanding of the biological and fluvial processes that link tree growth to past events, and providing answers to questions about flood dynamics and hazards that are needed to safeguard people and property from future floods.

Trees as flood sensors

In 1968, Benoit Mandelbrot and James Wallis published an article titled ‘Noah, Joseph, and operational Hydrology’ in the journal Water Resources Research. In it, they argued that hydrological models of the day were not able to estimate the true risk of extreme floods or prolonged drought, and that rare hydrological events were much more common than usually assumed. In this lecture, I’ll review how high-resolution paleoenvironmental archives can help us judge more accurately the risks posed by the ‘Noah’- and ‘Joseph’-style events described by Mandelbrot and Wallis. I’ll give particular emphasis to the environmental information recovered from the rings of ancient trees, and explain how dendrochronology (tree-ring research) has been used to redefine the ‘flood of record’, test potential avenues for long-lead climate predictions, and gage the performance of state-of-the-art climate models.

Noah, Joseph, And High-Resolution Paleoclimatology

As one of the most destructive hazards on our planet, floods kill thousands of people and cause billions of dollars in property damage every year. We usually try to gage the risk of future floods by fitting mathematic functions to hydrological data and then extrapolating the upper tail of those distributions. But because large floods are rare and river gage records are short, the conventional approach can sometimes drastically underestimate the threat posed to communities and infrastructure by extreme floods. In this lecture, I’ll argue that paleoflood hydrology — the study of ancient floods as recorded by river and lake sediments, trees, caves, and historical documents — is absolutely essential to judge the real risk of large, rare floods. And I’ll use examples from North America to illustrate how a ‘deeper river memory’ can help people evaluate their own vulnerability to floods, weigh the potential benefits of proposed infrastructure projects, and become more aware of what nature is truly capable of producing.

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GEOG5839.22, Paleofloods

How long do we need to watch a river before its behavior holds no more surprises? In this country, instrumental measurements of river stage and discharge stretch back a century or more, but this observed history still provides only a rough guide to the risks of future extreme floods. In this lecture, I’ll outline how paleoflood hydrology expands our perspective on river history by combining historical, botanical, and geological evidence of earlier (and ofttimes unknown) floods. And I’ll explain how we can interpret those physical clues left behind by ancient floods to improve hazard assessments for at-risk communities, support decisions about flood infrastructure, and investigate the long-term effects of climate or land-use changes on flooding. Because what has happened before can happen again, most everyone near a river would profit by keeping a longer memory of old floods.

Don’t call it a comeback: Studying ancient floods to prepare for future hazards

GEOG5839.06, The principle of cross dating

Nearly all decisions about water in Minnesota relate either directly or indirectly to data collected by the state’s hydrological observing network. Because most gauges were installed in early 20th century, as a whole the network provides us with roughly a 100-year ‘window’ to estimate flood risks, develop worst-case scenarios for drought, and set maximum allowable withdrawals for aquifers. But when we rely exclusively on observations made during this relatively brief interval, we may inadvertently increase our exposure to hydrological ‘surprises’. In order to make sound decisions about water in Minnesota, we need to expand this window: into the past, drawing upon historical accounts and natural archives; and into the future, via projections from climate and hydrological models. By cultivating a broader perspective on hydrological variability and extremes across the state, we will be better prepared to ensure adequate water supplies and mitigate the impacts of future floods and droughts.

Expanding the window - the past, present, and future of Minnesota's water

In the Biblical story of Joseph, following seven years of abundance, the Kingdom of Egypt was confronted by seven years of drought and famine. In the parlance of modern climate science, intervals with several consecutive extremely dry years are described as ‘“megadroughts”. In this short talk, I’ll describe how climate scientists combine clues from natural weather archives (including corals, tree rings, lake sediments, and many other sources) to reveal the history of ancient megadroughts across our planet. And I’ll highlight new research that combines these surrogate drought records with simulations from state-of-the-art climate models to help us better anticipate the risks of unusually persistent droughts during the coming century.

Long droughts: Using natural climate archives to gage the risks of future “me...

Even after more than a century of coordinated monitoring, instrumental weather observations are still too short to adequately constrain decadal or multidecadal behavior in the Earth’s climate system. Leading climatologists and climate modelers have called for the wider application of high-resolution proxy records to decadal variability and prediction studies, and our community has responded by producing new paleoclimate products that specifically target this type of ‘intermediate-term’ behavior. But we now also know our medium changes that message: the biological and geological systems that encode climate information into natural archives often also alter the original ‘input’, usually due to either seasonal filtering or non-climatic persistence. In this talk, we’ll discuss some of the challenges inherent to the use of high-resolution proxies to study decadal or multi-decadal climate variability, and suggest strategies that might clarify how climate acts on those timescales. And we’ll also present a new theoretical framework that could help paleo-scientists evaluate competing ideas about the causes of decadal- or multi-decadal events known to have occurred during the past one or two millennia.

Disentangling the decadal ‘knot’ in high-resolution paleoclimatology

So much of what we know about the Earth’s climate during the past two millennia comes from tree rings. Information gleaned from the physical or chemical properties of growth rings in trees have allowed us to extend hemispheric-scale temperature records back by several centuries, construct annual maps of drought severity that span several continents, and generate proxy estimates for many of the leading modes within the climate system. The theoretical foundation that underpins these products — and most others in dendroclimatology — was fully mature by the early 1990s and set out in detail by Cook and Kairiukstis in their seminal book, ‘Methods in Dendrochronology’. Most of the core analytical methods used to infer past climate from tree rings that appear in this reference (as well as prior works) depend on two concepts in particular: first, the idea that patterns common to many trees at many sites are more likely to be related to synoptic-scale climate variability (the principle of replication), and second, the notion that the most useful tree-ring records are found in forests where growth is particularly sensitive to a specific aspect of local climate (the principle of site selection). But because of (i) the gradual expansion, extension, and in-filling of the global tree-ring network and (ii) the emphasis given to atypical or even unique site-specific signals by some novel reconstruction methods, it is a point of debate within our community, at least implicitly, whether these principles remain valid. This presentation will review several recent studies that illustrate the possible advantages offered by a disregard for the usual ‘rules’ of dendroclimatology but will also discuss the potential pitfalls of placing too much emphasis on apparently optimal records. We hope this talk will encourage the sharing of ideas on how best to extract climate information from the ever-expanding network of tree-ring records across our planet and help open a discussion on the relevance of our standard theoretical framework to contemporary global dendroclimatology.

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We know from tree rings and other natural drought records that the western United States has been affected by several 'megadroughts' during the past millennium. But are these exceptionally long-lasting droughts due to unusual external forcings, or are they inevitable given a sufficiently long period of time? Here we present a statistical model that combines sea surface temperature records and drought severity statistics from the western USA, and use that tool to set out an expectation for megadrought, given no other changes in the climate system. Even though this model was trained using only modern climate data (and incorporates no information from tree rings or other proxies), it still produced megadroughts. Moreover, those simulated megadroughts were just as long-lasting, covered as large an area, and were just as severe as real megadroughts estimated from tree rings. That result means that megadroughts can occur in the western United States even if nothing else changes in the climate -- they really are just a matter of time. On the other hand, the only aspect of real-world megadroughts that the model cannot duplicate was the high number of these events during the so-called Medieval Climate Anomaly (800 to 1300 CE). So that cluster of megadroughts may have been caused by some sort of unusual climate circumstances that have not been observed by us during the past few decades. The proxy record tells us that many different kinds of exceptional or unusual climate events happened in the past. But it is often difficult to determine what caused those exceptional events because even, within a period of a thousand years, we still have very few cases. So besides being an aid to understand the causes of past megadroughts, we hope this approach can be applied to other paleoclimate records to distinguish between real interrelations between separate components of the climate system and simple coincidences.

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When climate science is communicated to the broader public, many of its key findings are shared in the form of conceptual diagrams or information-dense data graphics. In this collaboration, we applied a data sonification approach to express NASA’s global temperature record as a musical composition for the cello. The resulting piece, which we titled ‘A Song of Our Warming Planet’, transformed 133 years of annual global temperature anomalies into a haunting, atonal melody that stretched across almost all of the instrument’s range. Since its release in June 2013, the song has been featured by several national and international media outlets, including the New York Times, the Weather Channel, and National Public Radio, and its accompanying video has received more than 140,000 views from nearly every corner of the world. We are currently preparing a new composition for string quartet that will add a geographic dimension to describe both the pace and place of global warming. We believe the success of our initial sonification project is testament to the power of music to reach audiences who respond less enthusiastically to traditional methods used to communicate climate science. We also imagine this approach could be applied more broadly to allow students to create novel, visceral, and memorable encounters with other aspects of the geophysical sciences.

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A good talk can open the doors to new collaborations, increase your chances of funding success, and make it more likely other people will respond to your ideas. But scientific presentations are too often confusing, boring, and overstuffed. Here are some suggestions, based on our experience as speakers, audience members, and presentation trainers, that we hope will make your next conference talk or seminar more enjoyable, engaging and effective.

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Southern Manitoba is one of the most flood-prone regions in Canada, with the Red River of the North being the cause of most significant floods. The realization that the then-recent 1950 flood disaster was dwarfed by the historical 1826 flood led Canadian government officials to set an unusually high design standard for the Red River floodway, a 48-km long diversion built in the 1960s to protect the provincial capital of Winnipeg. And after paleoflood research confirmed new evidence of the 1826 flood, that event was cited as the main justification for expanding the Red River floodway, a $668 billion CAN infrastructure project that began in 2010. Without these insights from historical and paleoflood research, it’s almost certain flood risk estimates would have been unrealistically low and Winnipeg would have adopted a lesser level of flood protection. Because widespread Euro-American settlement in the Pembina Territory (the present-day Red River basin within the United States) did not occur until the 1870s, there are no historical accounts that indicate whether the 1826 flood was also so severe in North Dakota or Minnesota. As a result, the 1997 flood, which was nearly 1.5 times larger than any other previous flood in the US gage record, overwhelmed the dikes protecting Grand Forks and East Grand Forks. By having a deeper understanding of the history of flooding, communities are better able to anticipate future floods, make sound decisions about flood protection and migration, and protect people and their property more effectively.

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Prolonged episodes of persistently dry or wet conditions are common features of most proxy-based reconstructions of past hydroclimatic variability. These so-called “Joseph” events might be due to external forcings that push sea-surface temperatures into warm or cold states, and thereby increase the likelihood of widespread megadroughts or megapluvials. Alternatively, internal ocean-atmosphere variability alone might be able to produce long-lasting and spatially extensive wet or dry intervals, even in the absence of any exotic external influences. In this study, we use a simple statistical emulator to establish benchmarks for decadal or multidecadal patterns in the western United States. We constructed a linear inverse model that included three key aspects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (monthly sea-surface temperatures, zonal surface wind stress, and sea-surface height), and restricted the spatial domain of each field to include only the tropical Pacific. By also including western United States hydroclimate information in the LIM, we are able to test whether ENSO variability and stochastic weather ‘noise’ could be sufficient to create low-frequency coherence within proxy networks. More broadly, if simulated drought patterns generated by the LIM are able to match the frequency, intensity, or spatial extent of droughts reconstructed by proxies, that implies that neither exotic forcings nor climate variability outside the tropical Pacific are required to produce widespread megadroughts in this region. If prolonged departures from the mean are indeed emergent but unremarkable features of western North America’s hydroclimate, we might be able to estimate their future occurrence as a linear combination of changes in the mean state and the linear dynamics that have governed their behavior in the past. S. St. George, T. Ault, C. Carrillo, S. Coats, J. Mankin, J. Smerdon, What to expect when you’re expecting decadal variability in hydroclimatic proxies, PAGES 5th Open Science Meeting, Zaragoza, Spain, May 9-13, 2017.

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The ability to deliver effective and engaging oral presentations is a critical skill for all researchers. Unfortunately, despite the importance of clear communication, too many scientific presentations at conferences and workshops are confusing, abstract, and boring. In this short workshop, participants learn several key strategies and tips that will make their professional presentations just a little bit better than the rest. We discuss strategies for presentation planning, show how basic design principles can create more memorable slides, and point towards an outstanding set online tools and resources. Become a presentation superstar! Scott St. George is Associate Professor in the Department of Geography, Environment and Society at the University of Minnesota and a Resident Fellow at UMN's Institute on the Environment. Prior to joining the faculty at Minnesota, he was a research scientist with the Geological Survey of Canada. Scott shares some of his experiences ‘doing presentations differently’ at conferences, outreach opportunities, and the classroom.

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These visuals were prepared to support a string quartet performance and panel on climate change at Northwestern University in February 2106. A well-designed graphic can help audiences to quickly understand the main message embedded within a complex set of climate data and to retain those ideas longer than they would have if they were conveyed by words alone. But the visual aids used regularly by climate scientists also have their limitations: they are most easily understood by people who are already fluent in technical illustrations; they're usually static and sometimes do not tell an obvious story; and for many, they don't elicit a strong emotional response. Music, by contrast, is inherently narrative and is known to exert a powerful influence on human emotions. Because of this, sonification — the transformation of data into acoustic signals — may have considerable promise as a tool to enhance the communication of climate science. Daniel Crawford and Scott St. George report on a collaboration between scientists and artists that uses music to transmit the evidence of climate change in an engaging and visceral way.

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Anthropogenic climate change is one of the most challenging problems humanity faces, but public opinion surveys show that many people are skeptical about global warming. In this seminar, Dan Crawford, Scott St. George and Todd Reubold will share their experiences with using music to help climate science reach out to new audiences. Their first collaboration — a music video that reconfigures global temperature data as a cello composition — has been described as “amazing, and eerie” and “an effective tool to show people that our planet is changing.” Join us to learn what global warming sounds like!

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Context. WASP-76 b has been a recurrent subject of study since the detection of a signature in high-resolution transit spectroscopy data indicating an asymmetry between the two limbs of the planet. The existence of this asymmetric signature has been confirmed by multiple studies, but its physical origin is still under debate. In addition, it contrasts with the absence of asymmetry reported in the infrared (IR) phase curve. Aims. We provide a more comprehensive dataset of WASP-76 b with the goal of drawing a complete view of the physical processes at work in this atmosphere. In particular, we attempt to reconcile visible high-resolution transit spectroscopy data and IR broadband phase curves. Methods. We gathered 3 phase curves, 20 occultations, and 6 transits for WASP-76 b in the visible with the CHEOPS space telescope. We also report the analysis of three unpublished sectors observed by the TESS space telescope (also in the visible), which represents 34 phase curves. Results. WASP-76 b displays an occultation of 260±11 and 152±10 ppm in TESS and CHEOPS bandpasses respectively. Depending on the composition assumed for the atmosphere and the data reduction used for the IR data, we derived geometric albedo estimates that range from 0.05 ± 0.023 to 0.146 ± 0.013 and from <0.13 to 0.189 ± 0.017 in the CHEOPS and TESS bandpasses, respectively. As expected from the IR phase curves, a low-order model of the phase curves does not yield any detectable asymmetry in the visible either. However, an empirical model allowing for sharper phase curve variations offers a hint of a flux excess before the occultation, with an amplitude of ∼40 ppm, an orbital offset of ∼−30◦ , and a width of ∼20◦ . We also constrained the orbital eccentricity of WASP-76 b to a value lower than 0.0067, with a 99.7% confidence level. This result contradicts earlier proposed scenarios aimed at explaining the asymmetry observed in high-resolution transit spectroscopy. Conclusions. In light of these findings, we hypothesise that WASP-76 b could have night-side clouds that extend predominantly towards its eastern limb. At this limb, the clouds would be associated with spherical droplets or spherically shaped aerosols of an unknown species, which would be responsible for a glory effect in the visible phase curves.

CURRENT SCENARIO OF POULTRY PRODUCTION IN INDIA

Dr. TATHAGAT KHOBRAGADE

Asymmetry in the atmosphere of the ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-76 b

Sérgio Sacani

GBSN - Microbiology (Unit 3)Defense Mechanism of the body

Areesha Ahmad

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THE ROLE OF BIOTECHNOLOGY IN THE ECONOMIC UPLIFT.pptx

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Early Development of Mammals (Mouse and Human).pdf

Department of Education Philippines

PODOCARPUS...........................pptx

POGONATUM : morphology, anatomy, reproduction etc.