Presentations slides from the "2010 Housing Market Leading Indicators, presented by Altos Research" webinar hosted by Scott Sambucci, VP of Data Analytics with Altos Research on January 27, 2010, examining early housing market trends emerging in 2010.

1. 2010 Housing Market Who’s with you today?
Leading Indicators Scott Sambucci, VP, Data Analytics
presented by
 scott@altosresearch.com
Altos Research
 (415) 931 7942 - direct
 http://blog.altosresearch.com
 Twitter: @AltosResearch
Scott Macwhinnie, Sales Manager, Institutional
& Corporate Markets
EMERGING TRENDS IN THE 2010  scottm@altosresearch.com
HOUSING MARKET  (646) 435-1100- direct
Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 2
Altos 10-City Composite
Grab you coffee… Lots to cover
 Altos Research Seller Confidence Indicators
 Pending Mortgage Market Effects
 S&P/Case-Shiller HPI
 Selected Regional & Metro Trends
 (including the reason why being a Cubs fan isn’t
the worst thing about living in Chicago…)
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2. Sellers show the way Price Discovery Trends
Price Reductions: Elevated but improving Price vs. Inventory
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3. The Lagging Luxury Market
Quartile 1: Most expensive 25% of properties
Quartile 2: Top Middle 25%
Quartile 3: Bottom Middle 25%
Quartile 4: Least expensive 25% of properties
Example: 80 homes for sale in a market (city or
zip code)
 4 "quartiles" (groups) each have 20 properties
based on individual property prices.
 Allows for market definition by price, not just
geography
Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 9
The Washington Post:
“Stakes are high as government plans exit from
mortgage markets”
"We did what we thought was necessary to stabilize the market,
but we don't think the government should continue special
efforts forever," said Michael S. Barr, an assistant secretary at
the Treasury Department. "As you bring stability, private
participants come back in. We do expect this now that the
market has stabilized. I'm not going to say there will be no
effect on rates, but we do think you are seeing market signs
and market signals that there should be an orderly transition."
When Fed stops funding mortgages, there’s a scenario that
says “everything stops”
Altos Research – Why Market Data Matters 1/29/2010 12
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4. S&P/Case ShillerHPI Altos 10-City Composite:
Leading the SPCSI by 3-4 months
 Oct ‘09 released on  Nov ‘09 released on Median Ask Price Case-Shiller
12/29/09: Reported up 1/26/09: Down $560,000 230
220
0.2%, fractionally $540,000
210
$520,000 200
 Oct ‘09 revised on  14 of 20 markets 190
$500,000
1/26/20: Now down moved negatively in 180
$480,000 170
fractionally November 160
$460,000
 Altos – Trough in Jan,  By we already knew $440,000
150
140
peak in June that… How?... $420,000 130
date
Feb-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-07
Aug-07
Oct-07
Dec-07
Apr-09
Jun-09
Apr-08
Jun-08
Apr-07
Jun-07
 CS - Trough April, in
Peak in Sept
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New sellers expecting lower sales prices San Francisco-Oakland MSA
One of six SPCSI markets that moved positively in Nov ’09
SF List Prices
peaked in Nov ‘09
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5. Los Angeles-Orange County MSA Los Angeles MSA: New Sellers
One of six SPCSI markets that moved positively in Nov ’09
Prices held steady
through most of
Fall ‘09
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Phoenix MSA Phoenix: New Sellers less confident
One of six SPCSI markets that moved positively in Nov ’09
Peaked in July,
but… Short
sales/REOs take
longer to close
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6. Scottsdale’s Lagging Luxury Market… Atlanta MSA
 Spring ‘09 gains gone– back to Jan 2009 price levels
 ATXR peaked in August, reported November
It’s bad enough being a Cubs fan... City Trends ≠ MSA Trends
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7. The Northwest: Seattle & Portland Grab an umbrella…
Strong stock
market through
2008
2009 Market: Cause & Effect? 2010 – Now What?
 Fed will stop supporting mortgage markets
 Price Floor Evidence  Are private lenders going to pick up the slack?
 Will RMBS resume to off-load risk?
 Stimulus Response
 The Annual Macy’s Sale, er, Home buyer tax
 Government Mortgage Rates credit re-expires in April ’10
 Expect ST strength through July/August as
homes going to contract in April close, then
fall off in latter half of 2010
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8. And then…? The 2011 Crystal Ball
 Supply & Demand metrics  Prices start the same by year end 2010
 Shadow inventory  Double dip recession means we’re exactly the
same place in Jan ‘11 as now.
 Infrastructure & Political Will
 Even with significant economic recovery,
economists generally agreed that massive
private lending expansion required, which is
clearly not evident right now
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And Finally… Give us a call
Scott Sambucci, VP, Data Analytics
 Altos Research RE Derivatives Report
 scott@altosresearch.com
 Stats Datasheet for the fellow “data geeks”  (415) 931 7942 - direct
out there  http://blog.altosresearch.com
 Invitation to view of Data & Market Analytics  Twitter: @AltosResearch
Platform Scott Macwhinnie, Sales Manager, Institutional
 Attending the American Securitization Forum & Corporate Markets
next week? Let us know.  scottm@altosresearch.com
 Check out http://blog.altosresearch.com  646-435-1100- direct
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