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Paul M. Ong and Jonathan D. Ong
Assessing
Vulnerability
Indicators and


Race/Ethnicity
January 18, 2021
Acknowledgements
Disclaimer
The views expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily those of the University of
California, Los Angeles. The authors alone are responsible for the content of this report.
The author is appreciative of the valuable input provided by Professor Vickie Mays and partial
financial support from her center (UCLA BRITE) in the initial construction of the vulnerability index
based on pre-existing health conditions, the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research for providing
the tract-level CHIS (California Health Interview Survey) data, Professor Ninez Ponce and Jacob
Rosalez for reviewing the dra
ft
, and Megan Potter for designing the brief. We also want to thank
Vananh D. Tran, Richard Calvin Chang, Jacob Rosalez, and Ninez A. Ponce for assisting in preparing
the analysis for presentation.
Information about the Author
Professor Paul M. Ong is the Director of the UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge, and has a
Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley. Jonathan D. Ong is a researcher at
Ong&Associates and a graduate student in computer science at Arizona State University.
Suggested Citation
Paul M. Ong and Jonathan D. Ong. (2020) “Assessing Vulnerability Indicators and Race/Ethnicity.”
UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge.
The Center for Neighborhood Knowledge at UCLA acknowledges the Gabrielino/Tongva peoples as
the traditional land caretakers of Tovaangar (Los Angeles basin, So. Channel Islands) and pay our
respects to the honuukvetam (ancestors), 'ahiihirom (elders), and 'eyoohiinkem (relatives/
relations) past, present, and emerging.
This study assesses four vulnerability indicators that are being considered by public agencies as
policy tools to select the most-at-risk neighborhoods for interventions. These indicators can play a
role in prioritizing the provision of pandemic resources and services; consequently, they have
implications for how many people of color and minority neighborhoods are served. The study
compares three vulnerability indicators developed prior to COVID-19 and one developed in
response to the pandemic. Two sets of assessments are conducted. The first calculates the degree
of concordance between pairs of indicators, that is, how frequently they identify the same tracts as
being disadvantaged. The analysis finds that low rates of commonality (approximately less than
half of all designated tracts); therefore, the choice of indicator inherently translates into a
significant variation in the tracts classified as being eligible or ineligible for prioritization. The
second set of assessments examines the di
ff
erences among the indicators by comparing the racial
composition of the residents in designated high-vulnerability tracts, and by comparing the relative
number of minority neighborhoods included in high-vulnerability tracts. The analyses find
substantial di
ff
erences among the indicators in population compositions and proportion of
minority neighborhoods included. The findings can help ameliorate a policy dilemma. Despite the
reality that African Americans and Hispanics have su
ff
ered disproportionately from COVID-19, the
1996 Proposition 209 prohibits the state from explicitly using race as a factor in the provision and
distribution of pandemic relief and coronavirus vaccines. The study’s findings provide insights into
which of the four vulnerability indicators can serve as a reasonable proxy, one that captures an
important underlying mechanism producing systemic racial inequality. By several criteria, among
the indicators that do not explicitly include race/ethnicity as an input, the indicator based on pre-
existing health conditions (medical vulnerabilities) performs best in including African Americans. A
final recommendation is that public agencies should develop and construct new pandemic-
oriented indicators to help guide policies beyond racial equity.
Abstract
UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge 03
Gerson Repreza
This study assesses four vulnerability indicators that are being used as policy tools to select the
most-at-risk neighborhoods for prioritized interventions. Without timely and geographically precise
data on COVID-19 infections and the factors that determine the rate of infection, public agencies
have turned to pre-pandemic vulnerability indicators that measure socioeconomic and other types
of vulnerabilities. The underlying assumption is that these indicators are highly correlated with
disparities in COVID-19 outcomes, thus are useful proxies to identify at-risk neighborhoods. The
indicators can play a role in prioritizing the provision of pandemic resources and services. For
example, both National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM), and the Center
for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have recommended the use of two pre-existing indicators
to identify the most-at-risk places to allocate a proportion of the vaccines,1,2 a practice that has
been adopted by many states.3


This study compares three pre-pandemic indicators and a more recently developed indicator based
on pre-existing health conditions. The analysis focuses on the numbers of people of color residing
in designated high-vulnerability neighborhoods, and the relative number of minority
neighborhoods that fall into the high-vulnerability areas. Race/ethnicity is an important factor
because Latinos, and Pacific Islanders are disproportionately more likely to be infected by
COVID-19, and African Americans, Latinos and Pacific Islanders are more likely to die from an
infection.4 While Asian Americans have lower rates, there is evidence that some Asian ethnic
subgroups also bear a disproportionate share of negative COVID-19 outcomes.5 Race is also
important because people of color encounter multiple dimensions of inequality that are only
partially reflected in the indicators. For example, none of the indicators include an input variable
that directly measures systematic di
ff
erences and disparities in policing.


The assessment utilizes a policy-oriented exercise that simulates what would be the outcomes if an
indicator is used to identify the most vulnerable neighborhoods. By comparing the hypothetical
results for the four indicators, the policy-based exercise provides insights into which
neighborhoods and populations would be classified as at high-risk and consequently prioritized for
programmatic action. The findings show noticeable di
ff
erences in the groups and places
designated as being vulnerable, thus the choice of which indicator to use has highly consequential
implications in terms of who is served and who is not along racial lines.
04 UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge
Introduction
This study uses three pre-pandemic indicators at the census tract level. The social vulnerability
index (SVI) was created by the CDC to identify vulnerable areas for disaster planning and response.6
The indicator uses 15 ACS variables organized into four dimensions: socioeconomic status,
household composition, minority status and language, and housing type and transportation. This
study uses the most recent CDC version of the SVI, 2018.7 The second national indicator is the Area
Deprivation Index (ADI), which initially developed by the Health Resources & Services
Administration, and subsequently refined by Dr. Amy Kind and her research team.8 ADI uses ACS
data related to income, education, employment, and housing quality, and designed to inform
health delivery and policy. ADI block-group level data are aggregated to tracts using population
weights. The SVI and ADI are the two indicators recommended by CDC and NASEM to identify
vulnerable places. The Healthy Places Index (HPI) was developed by the Public Health Alliance of
Southern California9 and designed to help policy makers target the most disadvantaged
communities for interventions and resources. California has adopted the HPI as one of its policy
indicators. The index uses 25 variables from eight sources (including ACS) and organized in eight
domains: economy, education, healthcare access, housing, neighborhoods, clean environment,
transportation, and social environment. The rankings are inverted so higher values denote greater
vulnerability. Neither the HPI nor the ADI include race/ethnicity variables.


The study includes a newer indicator constructed specifically for the pandemic. The UCLA Pre-
Existing Health Vulnerability (PHV) index captures the risks or severity of COVID-19 infection due to
preexisting health conditions10 and is based on data from the California Health Interview Survey
(CHIS)11. The input data for the PHV are small area estimates at the tract level modeled from CHIS
data. PHV is a composite of six variables: diabetes, obesity, heart disease, overall health status,
mental health and food insecurity. Each variable is ranked. and the variables are then summed at
the tract level. The majority of the tracts are estimated directly from CHIS data, the values for other
tracts are estimated with predictive regression models using data from ACS and
CalEnvironScreen12. The regression model also incorporates information on PHV from nearby
tracts is also used when available.


For the state as a whole, the indicators (ranked as percentiles) are highly correlated with each other,
with unweighted r-values ranging from 0.69 (ADI and SVI) to 0.88 (HPI and SVI), and the population
weighted correlations range is very similar from 0.70 (ADI and SVI) to 0.88 (HPI and SVI). These
results are not surprising since all four indicators include ACS data, in some cases the same input
variables. The correlations based on percentile rankings, however, do not provide su
ff
icient
information about the indicators’ performance as a policy instrument that defines which
neighborhoods are eligible and ineligible for assistance. The NASEM and CDC recommends, for
example, that the most-at-risk places are those ranked in the top 25% in vulnerability. California
also follows this practice, so for the simulation analyses, tracts are categorized as 1 if they are in the
top quartile of the vulnerability ranking, else 0. We use two ranking procedures. The first is for all
tracts in the state, which simulates how state agencies and statewide organizations might use the
data. This can produce a disproportionately larger number of tracts in some regions relative to
other regions. The second is separate ranking within each county (that is the top quartile within a
given county), a procedure that county health departments might use.
UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge 05
Indicators and Method
06 UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge
Two sets of assessments are conducted. The first calculates the degree of concordance between
pairs of indicators, that is, how frequently they identify the same set of tracts as being
disadvantaged relative to tracts that are uniquely by just one indicator. The concordance rate is the
number of tracts in common divided by tracts identified by either or both indicators. Figure 1
provides an example using the SVI (on the Y or vertical axis) and the PHV (on X or horizontal axis).
The black lines within the graph represent the 75th percentile for each indicator. The tracts
identified by SVI as being highly vulnerable are in areas “A” and “C”, and the tracts identified by PHV
as being highly vulnerable are in areas “C” and “B”. The concordance rate is the tracts in “C” divided
by the tracts in “A” plus “B” plus “C”. If there is extensive commonality in the way places are
classified, then the policy choice of indicator is not critical. However, if there are significant
di
ff
erences, then the choice may matter. Empirically the former is the outcome; consequently, the
indicators can potentially produce di
ff
erent results in terms of the populations and neighborhoods
designated to receive priority because of high risk.
Figure 1: Distribution of Tracts by SVI and PHV Statewide Ranking
The second set of assessments examines the di
ff
erences among the indicators by comparing the
demographic outcomes. The first step is based on population composition by race. This is done by
summing up the counts from the 2015-19 American Community Survey for the tracts designated as
being highly vulnerable. For the tracts included in the study (which mostly excludes places with no
population or with a disproportionately large number of persons in group quarters), non-Hispanic
Whites comprise 37.2% of the total, Asian Americans comprise 14.5% of the total, African American
comprise 5.8%, and Hispanics 39.0%. Given that African Americans and Hispanics are relatively
more disadvantaged, then it is likely that they comprise a larger percent of the population in high
vulnerability tracts.


The second step is calculating the probability that majority minority neighborhoods are classified
as being vulnerable, using 2015-19 ACS data. Minority neighborhoods have disadvantages beyond
those encountered at the individual level.13 Residents in these places face place-based forms of
discrimination and unfair treatment by people, firms and institutions, and systematic barriers to
regional opportunities. Operationalizing the designation is done by first identifying the tracts that
are predominantly of one demographic group (African Americans, Asian Americans, Hispanic and
non-Hispanic Whites).14 Among the 8,059 tracts included in the study, there are 2,937 tracts are
majority non-Hispanic White, 373 tracts are majority Asian American, 66 are majority African
American, and 2,522 Hispanic. The analysis determines the proportion of these majority tracts are
designated as being highly vulnerable. Because there are a very large number of majority Hispanic
tracts, the analysis also examines very poor majority Hispanic neighborhoods (defined as a
majority Hispanic tract where persons below the federal poverty line comprise 30% or more of the
total population).
Joel Muniz
08 UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge
The two figures below summarize the concordance analysis. Figure 2 is based on designating the
vulnerable neighborhoods by ranking for all tracts within the state. Because of regional di
ff
erences
in overall socioeconomic and other demographic characteristics, designated vulnerable tracts are
not proportionately distributed among the regions. For example, 29% of all tracts are in Los Angeles
County, while 12% of ADI vulnerable tracts, 40% of HPI vulnerable tracts, 32% of PHV vulnerable
tracts and 40% of SVI vulnerable tracts are in the County. Concordance rates vary from a low of 37%
(ADI and SVI) to a high of 61% (HPI and SVI). The average is 46%, meaning that there are more
uniquely identified tracts than commonly identified ones; therefore, the choice of indicator
inherently translates into a significant variation in the sets of tracts that are classified as being as
being eligible or ineligible for prioritization.
Figure 2: Concordance Rates of Tracts Based on Statewide Vulnerability Rankings
Results
Figure 3 is based on designating the vulnerable neighborhoods by separate rankings within each
county. This implicitly means that there are proportionally the same number of designated
vulnerable tracts (the top quartile) in each county regardless of sizable di
ff
erences in
socioeconomic and other demographic characteristics. This can be seen in the case for a
ff
luent San
Francisco County by comparing the designation by within county ranking and statewide ranking. By
definition, approximately a quarter of San Francisco tracts are designated as being vulnerable (24%
to 25%, depending on how tracts at the 25th percentile are classified). On the other hand, 1% or
none of San Francisco tracts are designated as being vulnerable when using statewide ranking.
Despite the di
ff
erences when using within county rankings, the concordance rates are low, ranking
from 43% (ADI and PHV) to a high of 59% (HPI and SVI), with an average of 49%. As with the
previous analysis using statewide rankings, the results here also means that there are more
uniquely identified tracts than commonly identified ones. The implication is the same: the choice
of indicator inherently translates into a significant inconsistency in the tracts that are uniquely
classified as eligible or ineligible for prioritization.
UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge 09
Figure 3: Concordance Rates of Tracts Based on Within County Vulnerability Rankings
10 UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge
The following two tables summarize the population analysis by race. Table 1 is based on
designating the vulnerable neighborhoods by ranking for all tracts within the state. As expected,
African Americans and Hispanics comprise a larger percent of the population in high vulnerability
tracts because these two groups are relatively more disadvantaged. (For comparison, the following
are the percentages for all tracts in the study: 27% for non-Hispanic Whites, 14% for Asian
Americans, 6% for African American and 39% for Hispanics) There are, however, noticeable
di
ff
erences across indicators. Simulation with ADI produces the largest relative number of NH
whites (about twice as much as SVI), and PHV produces the largest relative number of African
Americans (over 1.2 times as much as ADI). The di
ff
erences in percentages translate into significant
di
ff
erences in the absolute size of the populations. For example, there is a di
ff
erence of 168
thousand African Americans in ADI vulnerable tracts and PHV vulnerable tracts, a substantial
number.
Table 1: Policy Simulation Results Based on Statewide Rankings
ADI HPI PHV SVI
Percent of Population in Vulnerable Tracts
Non-Hispanic White 30% 17% 19% 15%
Asian American 6% 8% 6% 9%
African American 7% 8% 9% 8%
Hispanic 54% 65% 63% 66%
Percent of Majority Tracts Included by Indicator
Non-Hispanic White 17% 5% 5% 2%
Asian American 1% 7% 0% 11%
African American 9% 45% 61% 38%
Hispanic 41% 56% 56% 61%
Hispanic, High Poverty 71% 96% 79% 97%
The bottom panel in Table 1 reports the probability that majority minority neighborhoods are
classified as being vulnerable. Relatively, there are few Asian American tracts in designated
vulnerable tracts, due to an overall higher socioeconomic and health status15, although the findings
do not reveal substantial di
ff
erences among Asian ethnic groups. The ADI captures very few African
American neighborhoods, while the PHV captures three-in-five African neighborhoods. The latter
high rate is probably due to the multiple health problems in this population, including a high
prevalence of pre-existing health conditions that increase vulnerability to COVID-19. The ADI
captures the fewest Hispanic neighborhoods, while the SVI captures the most. Among the other
three indicators, PHV captures fewer than HPI and SVI, perhaps due to the “Hispanic
Epidemiological Paradox,” where this population has better health outcome relative to their low
socioeconomic status.16
UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge 11
Table 2: Policy Simulation Results Based on Within County Rankings
Table 2 is based on designating the vulnerable neighborhoods by separate ranking for tracts within
each county. Many but not all of the results are similar to those based on statewide rankings. As
expected, African Americans and Hispanics comprise a larger percent of the population in high
vulnerability tracts because these two groups are relatively more disadvantaged. (Again, for
comparison, the following are the percentages for all tracts in the study: 27% for non-Hispanic
Whites, 14% for Asian Americans, 6% for African American and 39% for Hispanics.) Compared with
the statewide analysis, the di
ff
erences across indicators in the percentages for all four ethnoracial
groups are smaller. For example, African Americans as a percent of the population in vulnerable
places range from 8.5% for PHV to 8.0% for SVI based on county rankings. One notable outcome is
that county-based rankings include more Asian Americans than statewide rankings.
ADI HPI PHV SVI
Percent of Population in Vulnerable Tracts
Non-Hispanic White 20% 19% 18% 18%
Asian American 11% 11% 9% 11%
African American 8% 8% 8% 8%
Hispanic 58% 60% 62% 60%
Percent of Majority Tracts Included by Indicator
Non-Hispanic White 9% 7% 5% 5%
Asian American 19% 17% 12% 21%
African American 41% 44% 65% 33%
Hispanic 47% 49% 53% 52%
Hispanic, High Poverty 72% 84% 59% 87%
One of the underlying motivations for this study is addressing the politically contentious
prohibition against race/ethnic-based policies to rectify past injustices by “leveling the playing
field.” The 1996 Proposition 209 imposed severe restrictions on California, forbidding government
and public institutions from using race/ethnicity (and other forms of social identities) in giving
“preference” in the provision and distribution of goods and services.17 Californian revisited
Proposition 209 in the November 2020 election, but the voters refused to overturn the prohibition.
This does not mean, however, that racism cannot be acknowledged. Californians rejected the 2003
Proposition 54, what would have prohibited the collection of race/ethnic data. One of the strongest
arguments against the initiative was the critical need for race/ethnic data to track and analyze
health outcomes. The legal constraint creates a policy dilemma.18 It is possible to identify
systematic and implicit racial and ethnic biases in California’s racial-neutral policy to prioritize
neighborhoods high-impact by the pandemic, but it is not permissible to use race/ethnic-conscious
policy instruments to rectify the flaw. The proposed solution is to utilize indirect measurements
(indicators) based on underlying mechanisms that play major roles in generating racial and ethnic
disparities.


The findings from the policy-oriented simulation findings provides some insight into what could be
a good proxy to capture underlying racial disparities. The results show noticeable di
ff
erences in the
groups and places designated as being vulnerable; consequently, the choice has implications in
terms of who is served and who is not along racial lines. ADI performs the worst in terms of
capturing African American and Hispanic persons and neighborhoods. There are also noticeable
di
ff
erences among the other three indicators. PHV tends to capture more African American persons
and neighborhoods, probably because this group are more likely to have pre-existing health
conditions. HPI and SVI have many similar outcomes, probably due to having many common input
data from the American Community Survey. Base on a strict interpretation of Proposition 209, the
SVI indicator could be considered not a viable option because one of its input variables is based on
race. Among the remaining three (ADI, HPI and PHV), which do not explicitly include race, the PHV is
the most likely to be inclusive of people and neighborhoods of color.


The study’s limited assessment does not indicate which indicator is “best” by other criteria and for
other policy goals beyond racial justice. An analytical better approach to evaluating the indicators’
usefulness is to examine how an indicator aligns with explicit policy objectives. For example, the
PHV is more useful in identifying the neighborhoods that would be more adversely impacted by
new waves of coronavirus infections because of more severe health and mortality outcomes. This
means that inoculating residents in high PHV neighborhoods would be a desirable preventive
action. The PHV, however, is not e
ff
ective in directly identifying social and economic vulnerabilities.
While the other three (ADI, HPI and SVI) include these types of risks, it is di
ff
icult to fully or simply
understand their relative strengths and weaknesses without identifying the most relevant type and
form of vulnerability. The three indicators’ strength is also their weakness. They include a very
broad range of factors that enable them to rank generalized vulnerability, but this breadth also
makes them di
ff
icult to interpret for specific risks (e.g., probability of spreading infection
associated with the built environment, or communication and trust barriers to accepting vaccines).
An alternative is developing and constructing new and customized indicators that are aligned to
the specific vulnerability characteristics associated with the pandemic and policy goals.
Conclusion
12 UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge
Fernando Zhiminaicela
Ong, Paul M; Gonzalez, Silvia; Pech, Chhandara; Hernandez, Kassandra; Dominguez-Villegas,
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Ong, Paul M; Pech, Chhandara; Gutierrez, Nataly Rios; Mays, Vickie M., November 19, 2020.


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Model for Equity in Public Health Decision-Making”. 2020.


https://drive.google.com/file/d/1rRFmrfFd5_Td_iVTDebSf5tYW__26_av/view?usp=sharing


 


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https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-fZfjjx08aR7b8iobhmxlyllqT8KmiKb/view 


 


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the Digital Divide in Virtual Learning”. 2020.


https://drive.google.com/file/d/13oCZ4lnfmYeYNPnEiAfC8SY_8G9WlNLX/view?usp=sharing


 


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Appendix
UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge 13
 Ong, Paul M, Mar, Don, Larson, Tom, and Peoples, James H, Jr. September 9, 2020.


“Inequality and COVID-19 Job Displacement”. UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge and
Ong & Associates, 2020.


https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JE0kWRggo8zvYOdP5r1bsviDimyLPxg7/view?usp=sharing


 


Wong, Karna, Ong, Paul M, and Gonzalez, Silvia R. August 27, 2020. “Systemic Racial Inequality
and the COVID-19 Homeowner Crisis”. UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge, UCLA
Ziman Center for Real Estate, and Ong & Associates, 2020. 


https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/documents/areas/ctr/ziman/Systemic-Racial-Inequality-and-
COVID-19-Homeowner-Crisis_Wong_Ong_Gonzalez.pdf


 


Ong, Paul M. August 7, 2020. “Systemic Racial Inequality and the COVID-19 Renter Crisis”.
Technical Report, UCLA Institute on Inequality and Democracy, Ong & Associates, and UCLA
Center for Neighborhood Knowledge, 2020.


https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jSRYH2EEmWeP12Db0QKDjjW8sD3L45u6/view


 


Ong, Paul M and Ong, Jonathan. August 18, 2020. “Persistent Shortfalls and Racial/Class
Disparities”. Technical Report, UCLA Asian American Studies Center, UCLA Center for
Neighborhood Knowledge, and Ong & Associates, 2020. 


http://www.aasc.ucla.edu/resources/policyreports/COVID19_CensusUpdate_CNK_AASC.pdf


Mar, Donald; Ong, Paul M. July 20, 2020. “COVID-19’s Employment Disruption to Asian
Americans” Technical Report, Ong & Associates, UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge,
and UCLA Asian American Studies Center, 2020.


http://www.aasc.ucla.edu/resources/policyreports/COVID19_Employment_CNK-
AASC_072020.pdf


 


McKeever James; Ong, Jonathan; Ong, Paul M. June 25, 2020. “Economic Impact of the
COVID-19, Pandemic in Riverside County, Unemployment Insurance Coverage and Regional
Inequality.” June 2020, Economy White Paper Series, UC Riverside Center for Economic
Forecasting and Development and UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge. https://
knowledge.luskin.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/UCR-Economy-White-
Paper_COVID_UI.pdf


 


Ong, Paul M and Ong, Jonathan. June 11, 2020. “Persistent Shortfall and Racial/Class
Disparities, 2020 Census Self-Response Rate.” UCLA Luskin School of Public A
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airs and UCLA
Center for Neighborhood Knowledge. UCLA Latino Policy & Politics Initiative and Center for
Neighborhood Knowledge. 


https://knowledge.luskin.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/
Census_2020_RR_States_6.14.2020.pdf


 


14 UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge
xOng, Paul M; Gonzalez, Silvia R; Pech, Chhandara; Diaz, Sonja; Ong, Jonathan; Ong, Elena;
Aguilar, Julie. June 11, 2020. “Jobless During A Global Pandemic: The Disparate Impact of
COVID-19 on Workers of Color in the World’s Fi
ft
h Largest Economy.” Technical Report. UCLA
Latino Policy & Politics Initiative and Center for Neighborhood Knowledge. 


https://knowledge.luskin.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/LPPI-CNK-Unemployment-
Report-res-1.pdf


 


Ong, Paul M; Gonzalez, Silvia R; Pech, Chhandara; Diaz, Sonja; Ong, Jonathan; Ong, Elena;
Aguilar, Julie. May 19, 2020. “Struggling to Stay Home: How COVID-19 Shelter in Place Policies
A
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Policy & Politics Initiative and Center for Neighborhood Knowledge. https://latino.ucla.edu/
wp-content/uploads/2020/05/LPPI-CNK-3-Shelter-in-Place-res-1.pdf


 


Akee, Randall; Ong, Paul M; Rodriguez-Lonebear, Desi. “US Census Response Rates on
American Indian Reservations in the 2020 Census and in the 2010 Census.” Technical Report.
UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge and American Indian Studies Center.


https://knowledge.luskin.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/US-Census-Response-Rates-
on-American-Indian-Reservationss-051520.pdf


 


Mar, Don; and Ong, Jonathan. “At-Risk Workers of Covid-19 by Neighborhood in the San
Francisco Bay Area.” Technical Report. UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge.


https://knowledge.luskin.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Covid-19SFBayArea.pdf


Ong, Paul M; Ong, Elena; Ong, Jonathan. May 7 and May 12, 2020 “Los Angeles County 2020
Census Response Rate Falling Behind 11 Percentage Points and a Third of a Million Lower than
2010,” Technical Report. UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge.


https://knowledge.luskin.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/
Census_2020_RR_LACo_final.pdf


 


Ong, Paul M; Pech, Chhandara; Ong, Elena; Gonzalez, Silvia R; Ong, Jonathan. “Economic
Impacts of the COVID-19 Crisis in Los Angeles: Identifying Renter-Vulnerable Neighborhoods,”
Technical Report. UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge and UCLA Ziman Center for Real
Estate.


https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/documents/areas/ctr/ziman/UCLA-
CNK_OngAssoc._LA_Renter_Vulnerability_4-30-20.pdf


 


Parks, Virginia; Houston, Douglas; Ong, Paul M; Kim, Youjin B. April 24, 2020. “Economic
Impacts of the COVID-19 Crisis in Orange County, California: Neighborhood Gaps in
Unemployment-Insurance Coverage.” Technical Report, UCLA Center for Neighborhood
Knowledge and UC Irvine Urban Planning, 2020. https://socialecology.uci.edu/sites/default/
files/users/mkcruz/oc_economic_impacts_of_covid_apr24_2020-2.pdf


 


UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge 15
Ong, Paul M and Sonja Diaz. April 23, 2020 “Supporting Latino and Asian Communities During
COVID-19,” an opinion piece for NBC New.


https://latino.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/LPPI-CNK-Brief-2-with-added-notes-
res.pdf


 


Ong, Paul M; Ong, Jonathan; Ong, Elena; Carrasquillo, Andrés. April 22, 2020. “Neighborhood
Inequality in Shelter-in-Place Burden: Impacts of COVID-19 in Los Angeles,” Technical Report.
UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge and UCLA Institute on Inequality and Democracy.


https://ucla.app.box.com/s/ihyb5sfqbgjrkp8jvmwiwv7bsb0u83c4


 


Ong, Paul M; Pech, Chhandara; Gonzalez, Silvia R; Diaz, Sonja; Ong, Jonathan; Ong, Elena.
April 14, 2020. “Le
ft
Behind During a Global Pandemic: An Analysis of Los Angeles County
Neighborhoods at Risk of Not Receiving Individual Stimulus Rebates Under the CARES Act,”
Technical Report, UCLA Latino Policy & Politics Initiative and Center for Neighborhood
Knowledge.


https://latino.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/LPPI-CNK-Brief-2-with-added-notes-
res.pdf


 


Ong, Paul M; Pech, Chhandara; Gonzalez, Silvia R; Vasquez-Noriega, Carla. April 1, 2020. April
1, 2020. “Implications of COVID-19 on at risk workers by neighborhood in Los Angeles,”
Technical Report, UCLA Latino Policy & Politics Initiative and Center for Neighborhood
Knowledge, 2020. https://latino.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/LPPI-Implications-
from-COVID-19-res2.pdf


16 UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge
Endnotes


1 McClung N, Chamberland M, Kinlaw K, et al. The Advisory Committee on Immunization
Practices’ Ethical Principles for Allocating Initial Supplies of COVID-19 Vaccine — United
States, 2020. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2020;69:1782-1786. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/
10.15585/mmwr.mm6947e3external icon.


2 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. A Framework for Equitable
Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccine. 2020. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi:
10.17226/25917.


3 Michaud J, Kates J, Dolan R, Tolbert J. States Are Getting Ready to Distribute COVID-19
Vaccines. What Do Their Plans Tell Us So Far? Published: Nov 18, 2020 https://www.k
ff
.org/
coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/states-are-getting-ready-to-distribute-covid-19-vaccines-
what-do-their-plans-tell-us-so-far/. Accessed December 20, 2020.


4 California Department of Public Health, “COVID-19 Race and Ethnicity Data


January 6, 2021,” https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/Race-
Ethnicity.aspx. Accessed January 8, 2021.


5 Josie Huang, “Coronavirus Is Hitting Long Beach's Cambodian Community. But How
Hard?” https://laist.com/2020/05/14/coronavirus-southeast-asians-cambodians-long-beach-
california-covid-19.php; Rong-Gong Lin, December 31, 2020 “Coronavirus has besieged
Filipino, Vietnamese Americans in Bay Area,” https://www.latimes.com/california/story/
2020-12-31/
fi
lipino-vietnamese-americans-coronavirus-silicon-valley. Accessed January 8,
2021.


6 Flanagan BE, Gregory EW, Hallisey EJ, Heitgerd JL, Lewis B. A social vulnerability index for
disaster management. Journal of homeland security and emergency management. 2011
Jan 5;8(1).


7 U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Social Vulnerability Index 2018
Documentation. https://svi.cdc.gov/Documents/Data/2018_SVI_Data/
SVI2018Documentation-508.pdf. Accessed October 30, 2020.


8 University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health. “Neighborhood Atlas,”
https://www.neighborhoodatlas.medicine.wisc.edu/. Accessed January 8, 2021.


9 Delaney T, Dominie W, Dowling H, et al. Healthy Places Index.


https://healthyplacesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/
HPI2Documentation2018-07-08-FINAL.pdf


Accessed November 1, 2020.
10 Ong PM, Pech C, Gutierrez N, Mays V. COVID-19 medical vulnerability indicators: A
California data model for equity in public health state level decision-making. 2020. https://
knowledge.luskin.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/
CNK_CA_COVID19_Medical_Vulnerability_11_23_20_Final.pdf. Accessed October 30, 2020.


11 UCLA Center for Health Policy Research. (2020a). “California Health Interview Survey,”
https://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/chis/Pages/default.aspx. Accessed November 1, 2020.


12 California O
ffi
ce of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment. “CalEnviroScreen 3.0, Jun
25, 2018.” https://oehha.ca.gov/calenviroscreen/report/calenviroscreen-30. Accessed
January 8, 2021.


13 Ong, Paul M., and Silvia R. Gonzalez. Uneven Urbanscape: Spatial Structures and
Ethnoracial Inequality. Cambridge University Press, 2019.


14 This study focuses only on the major race/ethnic groups. Future analyses will examine
smaller minority populations.


15 For information on health and race, see Baciu A, Negussie Y, Geller A, et al., editors.
Communities in Action: Pathways to Health Equity. Washington (DC): National Academies
Press (US); 2017 Jan 11.


16 Morales, Leo S., Marielena Lara, Raynard S. Kington, Robert O. Valdez, and Jose J. Escarce.
"Socioeconomic, cultural, and behavioral factors a
ff
ecting Hispanic health outcomes."
Journal of health care for the poor and underserved 13, no. 4 (2002): 477; and González,
Silvia. "The Role of Neighborhoods and Ethnorace in Constructing Health-Related
Disparities in California." PhD diss., University of California, Los Angeles, 2020.


17 Paul Ong, editor, Impacts of A
ffi
rmative Action: Policies and Consequences in California,
AltaMira Press, 1999.


18 For discussion on this issue within the health arena, see Schmidt, Harald, Lawrence O.
Gostin, and Michelle A. Williams. "Is it lawful and ethical to prioritize racial minorities for
COVID-19 vaccines?." Jama 324, no. 20 (2020): 2023-2024.


Cover Page Photo: Richard Go
ff
(via unsplash.com)


https://knowledge.luskin.ucla.edu/


KnowledgeLuskin


UCLACenterforNeighborhoodKnowledge


knowledge@luskin.ucla.edu
https://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/


UCLAchpr

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COVID-19 Vaccine - Assessing Vulnerabilities

  • 1. 
 Paul M. Ong and Jonathan D. Ong Assessing Vulnerability Indicators and Race/Ethnicity January 18, 2021
  • 2. Acknowledgements Disclaimer The views expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily those of the University of California, Los Angeles. The authors alone are responsible for the content of this report. The author is appreciative of the valuable input provided by Professor Vickie Mays and partial financial support from her center (UCLA BRITE) in the initial construction of the vulnerability index based on pre-existing health conditions, the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research for providing the tract-level CHIS (California Health Interview Survey) data, Professor Ninez Ponce and Jacob Rosalez for reviewing the dra ft , and Megan Potter for designing the brief. We also want to thank Vananh D. Tran, Richard Calvin Chang, Jacob Rosalez, and Ninez A. Ponce for assisting in preparing the analysis for presentation. Information about the Author Professor Paul M. Ong is the Director of the UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge, and has a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley. Jonathan D. Ong is a researcher at Ong&Associates and a graduate student in computer science at Arizona State University. Suggested Citation Paul M. Ong and Jonathan D. Ong. (2020) “Assessing Vulnerability Indicators and Race/Ethnicity.” UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge. The Center for Neighborhood Knowledge at UCLA acknowledges the Gabrielino/Tongva peoples as the traditional land caretakers of Tovaangar (Los Angeles basin, So. Channel Islands) and pay our respects to the honuukvetam (ancestors), 'ahiihirom (elders), and 'eyoohiinkem (relatives/ relations) past, present, and emerging.
  • 3. This study assesses four vulnerability indicators that are being considered by public agencies as policy tools to select the most-at-risk neighborhoods for interventions. These indicators can play a role in prioritizing the provision of pandemic resources and services; consequently, they have implications for how many people of color and minority neighborhoods are served. The study compares three vulnerability indicators developed prior to COVID-19 and one developed in response to the pandemic. Two sets of assessments are conducted. The first calculates the degree of concordance between pairs of indicators, that is, how frequently they identify the same tracts as being disadvantaged. The analysis finds that low rates of commonality (approximately less than half of all designated tracts); therefore, the choice of indicator inherently translates into a significant variation in the tracts classified as being eligible or ineligible for prioritization. The second set of assessments examines the di ff erences among the indicators by comparing the racial composition of the residents in designated high-vulnerability tracts, and by comparing the relative number of minority neighborhoods included in high-vulnerability tracts. The analyses find substantial di ff erences among the indicators in population compositions and proportion of minority neighborhoods included. The findings can help ameliorate a policy dilemma. Despite the reality that African Americans and Hispanics have su ff ered disproportionately from COVID-19, the 1996 Proposition 209 prohibits the state from explicitly using race as a factor in the provision and distribution of pandemic relief and coronavirus vaccines. The study’s findings provide insights into which of the four vulnerability indicators can serve as a reasonable proxy, one that captures an important underlying mechanism producing systemic racial inequality. By several criteria, among the indicators that do not explicitly include race/ethnicity as an input, the indicator based on pre- existing health conditions (medical vulnerabilities) performs best in including African Americans. A final recommendation is that public agencies should develop and construct new pandemic- oriented indicators to help guide policies beyond racial equity. Abstract UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge 03 Gerson Repreza
  • 4. This study assesses four vulnerability indicators that are being used as policy tools to select the most-at-risk neighborhoods for prioritized interventions. Without timely and geographically precise data on COVID-19 infections and the factors that determine the rate of infection, public agencies have turned to pre-pandemic vulnerability indicators that measure socioeconomic and other types of vulnerabilities. The underlying assumption is that these indicators are highly correlated with disparities in COVID-19 outcomes, thus are useful proxies to identify at-risk neighborhoods. The indicators can play a role in prioritizing the provision of pandemic resources and services. For example, both National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM), and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have recommended the use of two pre-existing indicators to identify the most-at-risk places to allocate a proportion of the vaccines,1,2 a practice that has been adopted by many states.3 This study compares three pre-pandemic indicators and a more recently developed indicator based on pre-existing health conditions. The analysis focuses on the numbers of people of color residing in designated high-vulnerability neighborhoods, and the relative number of minority neighborhoods that fall into the high-vulnerability areas. Race/ethnicity is an important factor because Latinos, and Pacific Islanders are disproportionately more likely to be infected by COVID-19, and African Americans, Latinos and Pacific Islanders are more likely to die from an infection.4 While Asian Americans have lower rates, there is evidence that some Asian ethnic subgroups also bear a disproportionate share of negative COVID-19 outcomes.5 Race is also important because people of color encounter multiple dimensions of inequality that are only partially reflected in the indicators. For example, none of the indicators include an input variable that directly measures systematic di ff erences and disparities in policing. The assessment utilizes a policy-oriented exercise that simulates what would be the outcomes if an indicator is used to identify the most vulnerable neighborhoods. By comparing the hypothetical results for the four indicators, the policy-based exercise provides insights into which neighborhoods and populations would be classified as at high-risk and consequently prioritized for programmatic action. The findings show noticeable di ff erences in the groups and places designated as being vulnerable, thus the choice of which indicator to use has highly consequential implications in terms of who is served and who is not along racial lines. 04 UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge Introduction
  • 5. This study uses three pre-pandemic indicators at the census tract level. The social vulnerability index (SVI) was created by the CDC to identify vulnerable areas for disaster planning and response.6 The indicator uses 15 ACS variables organized into four dimensions: socioeconomic status, household composition, minority status and language, and housing type and transportation. This study uses the most recent CDC version of the SVI, 2018.7 The second national indicator is the Area Deprivation Index (ADI), which initially developed by the Health Resources & Services Administration, and subsequently refined by Dr. Amy Kind and her research team.8 ADI uses ACS data related to income, education, employment, and housing quality, and designed to inform health delivery and policy. ADI block-group level data are aggregated to tracts using population weights. The SVI and ADI are the two indicators recommended by CDC and NASEM to identify vulnerable places. The Healthy Places Index (HPI) was developed by the Public Health Alliance of Southern California9 and designed to help policy makers target the most disadvantaged communities for interventions and resources. California has adopted the HPI as one of its policy indicators. The index uses 25 variables from eight sources (including ACS) and organized in eight domains: economy, education, healthcare access, housing, neighborhoods, clean environment, transportation, and social environment. The rankings are inverted so higher values denote greater vulnerability. Neither the HPI nor the ADI include race/ethnicity variables. The study includes a newer indicator constructed specifically for the pandemic. The UCLA Pre- Existing Health Vulnerability (PHV) index captures the risks or severity of COVID-19 infection due to preexisting health conditions10 and is based on data from the California Health Interview Survey (CHIS)11. The input data for the PHV are small area estimates at the tract level modeled from CHIS data. PHV is a composite of six variables: diabetes, obesity, heart disease, overall health status, mental health and food insecurity. Each variable is ranked. and the variables are then summed at the tract level. The majority of the tracts are estimated directly from CHIS data, the values for other tracts are estimated with predictive regression models using data from ACS and CalEnvironScreen12. The regression model also incorporates information on PHV from nearby tracts is also used when available. For the state as a whole, the indicators (ranked as percentiles) are highly correlated with each other, with unweighted r-values ranging from 0.69 (ADI and SVI) to 0.88 (HPI and SVI), and the population weighted correlations range is very similar from 0.70 (ADI and SVI) to 0.88 (HPI and SVI). These results are not surprising since all four indicators include ACS data, in some cases the same input variables. The correlations based on percentile rankings, however, do not provide su ff icient information about the indicators’ performance as a policy instrument that defines which neighborhoods are eligible and ineligible for assistance. The NASEM and CDC recommends, for example, that the most-at-risk places are those ranked in the top 25% in vulnerability. California also follows this practice, so for the simulation analyses, tracts are categorized as 1 if they are in the top quartile of the vulnerability ranking, else 0. We use two ranking procedures. The first is for all tracts in the state, which simulates how state agencies and statewide organizations might use the data. This can produce a disproportionately larger number of tracts in some regions relative to other regions. The second is separate ranking within each county (that is the top quartile within a given county), a procedure that county health departments might use. UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge 05 Indicators and Method
  • 6. 06 UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge Two sets of assessments are conducted. The first calculates the degree of concordance between pairs of indicators, that is, how frequently they identify the same set of tracts as being disadvantaged relative to tracts that are uniquely by just one indicator. The concordance rate is the number of tracts in common divided by tracts identified by either or both indicators. Figure 1 provides an example using the SVI (on the Y or vertical axis) and the PHV (on X or horizontal axis). The black lines within the graph represent the 75th percentile for each indicator. The tracts identified by SVI as being highly vulnerable are in areas “A” and “C”, and the tracts identified by PHV as being highly vulnerable are in areas “C” and “B”. The concordance rate is the tracts in “C” divided by the tracts in “A” plus “B” plus “C”. If there is extensive commonality in the way places are classified, then the policy choice of indicator is not critical. However, if there are significant di ff erences, then the choice may matter. Empirically the former is the outcome; consequently, the indicators can potentially produce di ff erent results in terms of the populations and neighborhoods designated to receive priority because of high risk. Figure 1: Distribution of Tracts by SVI and PHV Statewide Ranking
  • 7. The second set of assessments examines the di ff erences among the indicators by comparing the demographic outcomes. The first step is based on population composition by race. This is done by summing up the counts from the 2015-19 American Community Survey for the tracts designated as being highly vulnerable. For the tracts included in the study (which mostly excludes places with no population or with a disproportionately large number of persons in group quarters), non-Hispanic Whites comprise 37.2% of the total, Asian Americans comprise 14.5% of the total, African American comprise 5.8%, and Hispanics 39.0%. Given that African Americans and Hispanics are relatively more disadvantaged, then it is likely that they comprise a larger percent of the population in high vulnerability tracts. The second step is calculating the probability that majority minority neighborhoods are classified as being vulnerable, using 2015-19 ACS data. Minority neighborhoods have disadvantages beyond those encountered at the individual level.13 Residents in these places face place-based forms of discrimination and unfair treatment by people, firms and institutions, and systematic barriers to regional opportunities. Operationalizing the designation is done by first identifying the tracts that are predominantly of one demographic group (African Americans, Asian Americans, Hispanic and non-Hispanic Whites).14 Among the 8,059 tracts included in the study, there are 2,937 tracts are majority non-Hispanic White, 373 tracts are majority Asian American, 66 are majority African American, and 2,522 Hispanic. The analysis determines the proportion of these majority tracts are designated as being highly vulnerable. Because there are a very large number of majority Hispanic tracts, the analysis also examines very poor majority Hispanic neighborhoods (defined as a majority Hispanic tract where persons below the federal poverty line comprise 30% or more of the total population). Joel Muniz
  • 8. 08 UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge The two figures below summarize the concordance analysis. Figure 2 is based on designating the vulnerable neighborhoods by ranking for all tracts within the state. Because of regional di ff erences in overall socioeconomic and other demographic characteristics, designated vulnerable tracts are not proportionately distributed among the regions. For example, 29% of all tracts are in Los Angeles County, while 12% of ADI vulnerable tracts, 40% of HPI vulnerable tracts, 32% of PHV vulnerable tracts and 40% of SVI vulnerable tracts are in the County. Concordance rates vary from a low of 37% (ADI and SVI) to a high of 61% (HPI and SVI). The average is 46%, meaning that there are more uniquely identified tracts than commonly identified ones; therefore, the choice of indicator inherently translates into a significant variation in the sets of tracts that are classified as being as being eligible or ineligible for prioritization. Figure 2: Concordance Rates of Tracts Based on Statewide Vulnerability Rankings Results
  • 9. Figure 3 is based on designating the vulnerable neighborhoods by separate rankings within each county. This implicitly means that there are proportionally the same number of designated vulnerable tracts (the top quartile) in each county regardless of sizable di ff erences in socioeconomic and other demographic characteristics. This can be seen in the case for a ff luent San Francisco County by comparing the designation by within county ranking and statewide ranking. By definition, approximately a quarter of San Francisco tracts are designated as being vulnerable (24% to 25%, depending on how tracts at the 25th percentile are classified). On the other hand, 1% or none of San Francisco tracts are designated as being vulnerable when using statewide ranking. Despite the di ff erences when using within county rankings, the concordance rates are low, ranking from 43% (ADI and PHV) to a high of 59% (HPI and SVI), with an average of 49%. As with the previous analysis using statewide rankings, the results here also means that there are more uniquely identified tracts than commonly identified ones. The implication is the same: the choice of indicator inherently translates into a significant inconsistency in the tracts that are uniquely classified as eligible or ineligible for prioritization. UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge 09 Figure 3: Concordance Rates of Tracts Based on Within County Vulnerability Rankings
  • 10. 10 UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge The following two tables summarize the population analysis by race. Table 1 is based on designating the vulnerable neighborhoods by ranking for all tracts within the state. As expected, African Americans and Hispanics comprise a larger percent of the population in high vulnerability tracts because these two groups are relatively more disadvantaged. (For comparison, the following are the percentages for all tracts in the study: 27% for non-Hispanic Whites, 14% for Asian Americans, 6% for African American and 39% for Hispanics) There are, however, noticeable di ff erences across indicators. Simulation with ADI produces the largest relative number of NH whites (about twice as much as SVI), and PHV produces the largest relative number of African Americans (over 1.2 times as much as ADI). The di ff erences in percentages translate into significant di ff erences in the absolute size of the populations. For example, there is a di ff erence of 168 thousand African Americans in ADI vulnerable tracts and PHV vulnerable tracts, a substantial number. Table 1: Policy Simulation Results Based on Statewide Rankings ADI HPI PHV SVI Percent of Population in Vulnerable Tracts Non-Hispanic White 30% 17% 19% 15% Asian American 6% 8% 6% 9% African American 7% 8% 9% 8% Hispanic 54% 65% 63% 66% Percent of Majority Tracts Included by Indicator Non-Hispanic White 17% 5% 5% 2% Asian American 1% 7% 0% 11% African American 9% 45% 61% 38% Hispanic 41% 56% 56% 61% Hispanic, High Poverty 71% 96% 79% 97% The bottom panel in Table 1 reports the probability that majority minority neighborhoods are classified as being vulnerable. Relatively, there are few Asian American tracts in designated vulnerable tracts, due to an overall higher socioeconomic and health status15, although the findings do not reveal substantial di ff erences among Asian ethnic groups. The ADI captures very few African American neighborhoods, while the PHV captures three-in-five African neighborhoods. The latter high rate is probably due to the multiple health problems in this population, including a high prevalence of pre-existing health conditions that increase vulnerability to COVID-19. The ADI captures the fewest Hispanic neighborhoods, while the SVI captures the most. Among the other three indicators, PHV captures fewer than HPI and SVI, perhaps due to the “Hispanic Epidemiological Paradox,” where this population has better health outcome relative to their low socioeconomic status.16
  • 11. UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge 11 Table 2: Policy Simulation Results Based on Within County Rankings Table 2 is based on designating the vulnerable neighborhoods by separate ranking for tracts within each county. Many but not all of the results are similar to those based on statewide rankings. As expected, African Americans and Hispanics comprise a larger percent of the population in high vulnerability tracts because these two groups are relatively more disadvantaged. (Again, for comparison, the following are the percentages for all tracts in the study: 27% for non-Hispanic Whites, 14% for Asian Americans, 6% for African American and 39% for Hispanics.) Compared with the statewide analysis, the di ff erences across indicators in the percentages for all four ethnoracial groups are smaller. For example, African Americans as a percent of the population in vulnerable places range from 8.5% for PHV to 8.0% for SVI based on county rankings. One notable outcome is that county-based rankings include more Asian Americans than statewide rankings. ADI HPI PHV SVI Percent of Population in Vulnerable Tracts Non-Hispanic White 20% 19% 18% 18% Asian American 11% 11% 9% 11% African American 8% 8% 8% 8% Hispanic 58% 60% 62% 60% Percent of Majority Tracts Included by Indicator Non-Hispanic White 9% 7% 5% 5% Asian American 19% 17% 12% 21% African American 41% 44% 65% 33% Hispanic 47% 49% 53% 52% Hispanic, High Poverty 72% 84% 59% 87%
  • 12. One of the underlying motivations for this study is addressing the politically contentious prohibition against race/ethnic-based policies to rectify past injustices by “leveling the playing field.” The 1996 Proposition 209 imposed severe restrictions on California, forbidding government and public institutions from using race/ethnicity (and other forms of social identities) in giving “preference” in the provision and distribution of goods and services.17 Californian revisited Proposition 209 in the November 2020 election, but the voters refused to overturn the prohibition. This does not mean, however, that racism cannot be acknowledged. Californians rejected the 2003 Proposition 54, what would have prohibited the collection of race/ethnic data. One of the strongest arguments against the initiative was the critical need for race/ethnic data to track and analyze health outcomes. The legal constraint creates a policy dilemma.18 It is possible to identify systematic and implicit racial and ethnic biases in California’s racial-neutral policy to prioritize neighborhoods high-impact by the pandemic, but it is not permissible to use race/ethnic-conscious policy instruments to rectify the flaw. The proposed solution is to utilize indirect measurements (indicators) based on underlying mechanisms that play major roles in generating racial and ethnic disparities. The findings from the policy-oriented simulation findings provides some insight into what could be a good proxy to capture underlying racial disparities. The results show noticeable di ff erences in the groups and places designated as being vulnerable; consequently, the choice has implications in terms of who is served and who is not along racial lines. ADI performs the worst in terms of capturing African American and Hispanic persons and neighborhoods. There are also noticeable di ff erences among the other three indicators. PHV tends to capture more African American persons and neighborhoods, probably because this group are more likely to have pre-existing health conditions. HPI and SVI have many similar outcomes, probably due to having many common input data from the American Community Survey. Base on a strict interpretation of Proposition 209, the SVI indicator could be considered not a viable option because one of its input variables is based on race. Among the remaining three (ADI, HPI and PHV), which do not explicitly include race, the PHV is the most likely to be inclusive of people and neighborhoods of color. The study’s limited assessment does not indicate which indicator is “best” by other criteria and for other policy goals beyond racial justice. An analytical better approach to evaluating the indicators’ usefulness is to examine how an indicator aligns with explicit policy objectives. For example, the PHV is more useful in identifying the neighborhoods that would be more adversely impacted by new waves of coronavirus infections because of more severe health and mortality outcomes. This means that inoculating residents in high PHV neighborhoods would be a desirable preventive action. The PHV, however, is not e ff ective in directly identifying social and economic vulnerabilities. While the other three (ADI, HPI and SVI) include these types of risks, it is di ff icult to fully or simply understand their relative strengths and weaknesses without identifying the most relevant type and form of vulnerability. The three indicators’ strength is also their weakness. They include a very broad range of factors that enable them to rank generalized vulnerability, but this breadth also makes them di ff icult to interpret for specific risks (e.g., probability of spreading infection associated with the built environment, or communication and trust barriers to accepting vaccines). An alternative is developing and constructing new and customized indicators that are aligned to the specific vulnerability characteristics associated with the pandemic and policy goals. Conclusion 12 UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge
  • 14. Ong, Paul M; Gonzalez, Silvia; Pech, Chhandara; Hernandez, Kassandra; Dominguez-Villegas, Rodrigo, December 15, 2020. “Disparities in the Distribution of Paycheck Protection Program Funds”. UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge and UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Initiative. 2020. https://knowledge.luskin.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/PPP-Neighborhood- Analysis-Report_10.13.2020.pdf Ong, Paul M. December 9, 2020. “COVID-19 and the Digital Divide in Virtual Learning, Fall 2020.” UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge. 2020. https://knowledge.luskin.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/DigitalDivide_phase2.pdf Ong, Paul M; Pech, Chhandara; Gutierrez, Nataly Rios; Mays, Vickie M, November 23, 2020. “COVID-19 Vulnerability Indicators: California Data for Equity in Public Health Decision- Making”. UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge and BRITE Center for Science, Research, and Policy, 2020.  https://knowledge.luskin.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ CNK_CA_COVID19_Medical_Vulnerability_11_23_20_Final.pdf Ray, Rosalie Singerman; Ong, Paul M. November 23, 2020. “Unequal Access to Remote Work During the COVID-19 Pandemic” UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge and Institute of Transportation Studies, 2020. https://knowledge.luskin.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/RemoteWork_v02.pdf Ong, Paul M; Pech, Chhandara; Gutierrez, Nataly Rios; Mays, Vickie M., November 19, 2020. “Los Angeles Neighborhoods and COVID-19 Medical Vulnerability Indicators: A Local Data Model for Equity in Public Health Decision-Making”. 2020. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1rRFmrfFd5_Td_iVTDebSf5tYW__26_av/view?usp=sharing   Larson, Tom; Ong, Paul M, Mar, Don, and Peoples, James H, Jr. November 11, 2020. “Inequality and COVID-19 Food Insecurity”. 2020.   https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-fZfjjx08aR7b8iobhmxlyllqT8KmiKb/view    Ong, Paul, Comandom, Andre, DiRago, Nicholas, Harper, Lauren. October 30, 2020. “COVID-19 Impacts on Minority Businesses and Systemic Inequality”. 2020.  https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gOYT6c-Mcpx3NoknUEFfKHg4gCkvzd5o/view   Peoples, James H., Jr., Ong, Paul M, Mar, Don, Larson, Tom. October 28, 2020. “COVID-19 and the Digital Divide in Virtual Learning”. 2020. https://drive.google.com/file/d/13oCZ4lnfmYeYNPnEiAfC8SY_8G9WlNLX/view?usp=sharing   Ong, Paul M, Pech, Chhandara, and Potter, Megan. October 1, 2020. “California Neighborhoods and COVID-19 Vulnerabilities”. 2020. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1T5U9hOvoHq5O6Rmyi--I2pn4EHGhRu3L/view?ts=5f7671a8 Appendix UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge 13
  • 15.  Ong, Paul M, Mar, Don, Larson, Tom, and Peoples, James H, Jr. September 9, 2020. “Inequality and COVID-19 Job Displacement”. UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge and Ong & Associates, 2020. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JE0kWRggo8zvYOdP5r1bsviDimyLPxg7/view?usp=sharing   Wong, Karna, Ong, Paul M, and Gonzalez, Silvia R. August 27, 2020. “Systemic Racial Inequality and the COVID-19 Homeowner Crisis”. UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge, UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate, and Ong & Associates, 2020.  https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/documents/areas/ctr/ziman/Systemic-Racial-Inequality-and- COVID-19-Homeowner-Crisis_Wong_Ong_Gonzalez.pdf   Ong, Paul M. August 7, 2020. “Systemic Racial Inequality and the COVID-19 Renter Crisis”. Technical Report, UCLA Institute on Inequality and Democracy, Ong & Associates, and UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge, 2020. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jSRYH2EEmWeP12Db0QKDjjW8sD3L45u6/view   Ong, Paul M and Ong, Jonathan. August 18, 2020. “Persistent Shortfalls and Racial/Class Disparities”. Technical Report, UCLA Asian American Studies Center, UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge, and Ong & Associates, 2020.  http://www.aasc.ucla.edu/resources/policyreports/COVID19_CensusUpdate_CNK_AASC.pdf Mar, Donald; Ong, Paul M. July 20, 2020. “COVID-19’s Employment Disruption to Asian Americans” Technical Report, Ong & Associates, UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge, and UCLA Asian American Studies Center, 2020. http://www.aasc.ucla.edu/resources/policyreports/COVID19_Employment_CNK- AASC_072020.pdf   McKeever James; Ong, Jonathan; Ong, Paul M. June 25, 2020. “Economic Impact of the COVID-19, Pandemic in Riverside County, Unemployment Insurance Coverage and Regional Inequality.” June 2020, Economy White Paper Series, UC Riverside Center for Economic Forecasting and Development and UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge. https:// knowledge.luskin.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/UCR-Economy-White- Paper_COVID_UI.pdf   Ong, Paul M and Ong, Jonathan. June 11, 2020. “Persistent Shortfall and Racial/Class Disparities, 2020 Census Self-Response Rate.” UCLA Luskin School of Public A ff airs and UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge. UCLA Latino Policy & Politics Initiative and Center for Neighborhood Knowledge.  https://knowledge.luskin.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/ Census_2020_RR_States_6.14.2020.pdf   14 UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge
  • 16. xOng, Paul M; Gonzalez, Silvia R; Pech, Chhandara; Diaz, Sonja; Ong, Jonathan; Ong, Elena; Aguilar, Julie. June 11, 2020. “Jobless During A Global Pandemic: The Disparate Impact of COVID-19 on Workers of Color in the World’s Fi ft h Largest Economy.” Technical Report. UCLA Latino Policy & Politics Initiative and Center for Neighborhood Knowledge.  https://knowledge.luskin.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/LPPI-CNK-Unemployment- Report-res-1.pdf   Ong, Paul M; Gonzalez, Silvia R; Pech, Chhandara; Diaz, Sonja; Ong, Jonathan; Ong, Elena; Aguilar, Julie. May 19, 2020. “Struggling to Stay Home: How COVID-19 Shelter in Place Policies A ff ect Los Angeles County's Black and Latino Neighborhoods.” Technical Report. UCLA Latino Policy & Politics Initiative and Center for Neighborhood Knowledge. https://latino.ucla.edu/ wp-content/uploads/2020/05/LPPI-CNK-3-Shelter-in-Place-res-1.pdf   Akee, Randall; Ong, Paul M; Rodriguez-Lonebear, Desi. “US Census Response Rates on American Indian Reservations in the 2020 Census and in the 2010 Census.” Technical Report. UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge and American Indian Studies Center. https://knowledge.luskin.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/US-Census-Response-Rates- on-American-Indian-Reservationss-051520.pdf   Mar, Don; and Ong, Jonathan. “At-Risk Workers of Covid-19 by Neighborhood in the San Francisco Bay Area.” Technical Report. UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge. https://knowledge.luskin.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Covid-19SFBayArea.pdf Ong, Paul M; Ong, Elena; Ong, Jonathan. May 7 and May 12, 2020 “Los Angeles County 2020 Census Response Rate Falling Behind 11 Percentage Points and a Third of a Million Lower than 2010,” Technical Report. UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge. https://knowledge.luskin.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/ Census_2020_RR_LACo_final.pdf   Ong, Paul M; Pech, Chhandara; Ong, Elena; Gonzalez, Silvia R; Ong, Jonathan. “Economic Impacts of the COVID-19 Crisis in Los Angeles: Identifying Renter-Vulnerable Neighborhoods,” Technical Report. UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge and UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate. https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/documents/areas/ctr/ziman/UCLA- CNK_OngAssoc._LA_Renter_Vulnerability_4-30-20.pdf   Parks, Virginia; Houston, Douglas; Ong, Paul M; Kim, Youjin B. April 24, 2020. “Economic Impacts of the COVID-19 Crisis in Orange County, California: Neighborhood Gaps in Unemployment-Insurance Coverage.” Technical Report, UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge and UC Irvine Urban Planning, 2020. https://socialecology.uci.edu/sites/default/ files/users/mkcruz/oc_economic_impacts_of_covid_apr24_2020-2.pdf   UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge 15
  • 17. Ong, Paul M and Sonja Diaz. April 23, 2020 “Supporting Latino and Asian Communities During COVID-19,” an opinion piece for NBC New. https://latino.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/LPPI-CNK-Brief-2-with-added-notes- res.pdf   Ong, Paul M; Ong, Jonathan; Ong, Elena; Carrasquillo, Andrés. April 22, 2020. “Neighborhood Inequality in Shelter-in-Place Burden: Impacts of COVID-19 in Los Angeles,” Technical Report. UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge and UCLA Institute on Inequality and Democracy. https://ucla.app.box.com/s/ihyb5sfqbgjrkp8jvmwiwv7bsb0u83c4   Ong, Paul M; Pech, Chhandara; Gonzalez, Silvia R; Diaz, Sonja; Ong, Jonathan; Ong, Elena. April 14, 2020. “Le ft Behind During a Global Pandemic: An Analysis of Los Angeles County Neighborhoods at Risk of Not Receiving Individual Stimulus Rebates Under the CARES Act,” Technical Report, UCLA Latino Policy & Politics Initiative and Center for Neighborhood Knowledge. https://latino.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/LPPI-CNK-Brief-2-with-added-notes- res.pdf   Ong, Paul M; Pech, Chhandara; Gonzalez, Silvia R; Vasquez-Noriega, Carla. April 1, 2020. April 1, 2020. “Implications of COVID-19 on at risk workers by neighborhood in Los Angeles,” Technical Report, UCLA Latino Policy & Politics Initiative and Center for Neighborhood Knowledge, 2020. https://latino.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/LPPI-Implications- from-COVID-19-res2.pdf 
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  • 18. Endnotes 1 McClung N, Chamberland M, Kinlaw K, et al. The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices’ Ethical Principles for Allocating Initial Supplies of COVID-19 Vaccine — United States, 2020. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2020;69:1782-1786. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/ 10.15585/mmwr.mm6947e3external icon. 2 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. A Framework for Equitable Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccine. 2020. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25917. 3 Michaud J, Kates J, Dolan R, Tolbert J. States Are Getting Ready to Distribute COVID-19 Vaccines. What Do Their Plans Tell Us So Far? Published: Nov 18, 2020 https://www.k ff .org/ coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/states-are-getting-ready-to-distribute-covid-19-vaccines- what-do-their-plans-tell-us-so-far/. Accessed December 20, 2020. 4 California Department of Public Health, “COVID-19 Race and Ethnicity Data January 6, 2021,” https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/Race- Ethnicity.aspx. Accessed January 8, 2021. 5 Josie Huang, “Coronavirus Is Hitting Long Beach's Cambodian Community. But How Hard?” https://laist.com/2020/05/14/coronavirus-southeast-asians-cambodians-long-beach- california-covid-19.php; Rong-Gong Lin, December 31, 2020 “Coronavirus has besieged Filipino, Vietnamese Americans in Bay Area,” https://www.latimes.com/california/story/ 2020-12-31/ fi lipino-vietnamese-americans-coronavirus-silicon-valley. Accessed January 8, 2021. 6 Flanagan BE, Gregory EW, Hallisey EJ, Heitgerd JL, Lewis B. A social vulnerability index for disaster management. Journal of homeland security and emergency management. 2011 Jan 5;8(1). 7 U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Social Vulnerability Index 2018 Documentation. https://svi.cdc.gov/Documents/Data/2018_SVI_Data/ SVI2018Documentation-508.pdf. Accessed October 30, 2020. 8 University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health. “Neighborhood Atlas,” https://www.neighborhoodatlas.medicine.wisc.edu/. Accessed January 8, 2021. 9 Delaney T, Dominie W, Dowling H, et al. Healthy Places Index. https://healthyplacesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/ HPI2Documentation2018-07-08-FINAL.pdf Accessed November 1, 2020.
  • 19. 10 Ong PM, Pech C, Gutierrez N, Mays V. COVID-19 medical vulnerability indicators: A California data model for equity in public health state level decision-making. 2020. https:// knowledge.luskin.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ CNK_CA_COVID19_Medical_Vulnerability_11_23_20_Final.pdf. Accessed October 30, 2020. 11 UCLA Center for Health Policy Research. (2020a). “California Health Interview Survey,” https://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/chis/Pages/default.aspx. Accessed November 1, 2020. 12 California O ffi ce of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment. “CalEnviroScreen 3.0, Jun 25, 2018.” https://oehha.ca.gov/calenviroscreen/report/calenviroscreen-30. Accessed January 8, 2021. 13 Ong, Paul M., and Silvia R. Gonzalez. Uneven Urbanscape: Spatial Structures and Ethnoracial Inequality. Cambridge University Press, 2019. 14 This study focuses only on the major race/ethnic groups. Future analyses will examine smaller minority populations. 15 For information on health and race, see Baciu A, Negussie Y, Geller A, et al., editors. Communities in Action: Pathways to Health Equity. Washington (DC): National Academies Press (US); 2017 Jan 11. 16 Morales, Leo S., Marielena Lara, Raynard S. Kington, Robert O. Valdez, and Jose J. Escarce. "Socioeconomic, cultural, and behavioral factors a ff ecting Hispanic health outcomes." Journal of health care for the poor and underserved 13, no. 4 (2002): 477; and González, Silvia. "The Role of Neighborhoods and Ethnorace in Constructing Health-Related Disparities in California." PhD diss., University of California, Los Angeles, 2020. 17 Paul Ong, editor, Impacts of A ffi rmative Action: Policies and Consequences in California, AltaMira Press, 1999. 18 For discussion on this issue within the health arena, see Schmidt, Harald, Lawrence O. Gostin, and Michelle A. Williams. "Is it lawful and ethical to prioritize racial minorities for COVID-19 vaccines?." Jama 324, no. 20 (2020): 2023-2024. Cover Page Photo: Richard Go ff (via unsplash.com)