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Bountiful
Automated fruit & vegetable scanner:
taste, appearance, shelf-life, food safety
# of Interviews: >200 (153 class + >50 prior)
ORIGINAL
IDEA
FINAL IDEA Demand forecasting and intelligent
purchasing for grocery stores
Matt
Schwartz
MBA / MS (Food & Ag)
Founder, Protein Snack Co
Food & Ag Operations
Nathan
Fenner
MBA + BS/MS & Lecturer
Stanford Mechanical
Engineering
Robotics Engineer
Stacey
Huang
PhD Candidate Electrical
Engineering
Spectroscopy
Mayank
Agarwal
MS MS&E
Computer Science
Team Mentor
Partner, CTO Khosla Ventures
Deep Startup & Engineering
Expertise
Sven
Strohband
Team Bountiful
Our initial interest
Pre-
class
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
Our initial solution
An automated fruit & vegetable
scanner that uses spectroscopy,
computer vision, and machine
learning to measure taste, shelf
life, and food safety
“If we can measure taste, the
whole market will adopt it and
grow better produce and we’ll
make tons of money!”
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
-Classify produce distinguishing
between sellable (meets buyer
specifications) vs. unsellable; ultimately
create spectrum of unsellable to perfect
(incl. dimensions of taste & safety)
-Sort produce quickly, cheaply, and with
no harm to produce
-Maintain customer data platform / user
interface (Produce Grower:
performance per acre; Produce
Distributor: performance per supplier
farm)
Business Model Canvas Update
-Produce buyers and end customers:
retailers, restaurants, food service
providers
-Taste experts and laboratories to inform
classification and gradation of the produce
-Agriculture and Food Regulators and
Gov’t entities (FDA, USDA)
-Food safety international standard setters
(BRC, SQF)
-Food safety consultants
Key Suppliers:
-Machine parts?
Produce Growers
Long-term: All types of produce
growers
Short-term: strawberry growers
and high-value lettuce growers
-Initial buyers may include Food
Safety and Quality Assurance
within grower businesses
Produce Distributors
Companies that purchase produce
from the farm gate or directly from
growers to re-sell to Restaurants /
Grocers / Food Service and
vertically integrated distributors
(e.g., Sysco)
Long term: all distributors
Short term: focus on large
distributors who purchase at scale
-Technical talent: engineers,
scientists, coders
-Machinery: harvesting and
produce-sorting robot
-Data from each kind of produce for
calibration of the produce-sorting
classification routine
-Financial capital to build initial
equipment
-Sales
Machinery construction/maintenance - parts, labor
Research - sensor and ML experts, food scientists, taste experts
Data analysis and reporting team - data scientists, UI for consumers, infrastructure, servers,
customer service
[Service model only] - labor to man the harvest robot / produce scanner
Channel managers
Marketing / Trade Shows
Salesforce
Produce Growers
If subscription service: customers pay for harvesting and categorization service
(charged as % of selling price of produce assessed)
If equipment: customers purchase harvest robot that can be self-operated
Produce Distributors
If subscription service: customers pay for quality detection, food safety analyses, &
classification (charged as % of selling price of produce assessed)
If equipment: customers purchase scanner that can be self-operated
Produce Growers
-Responsive to growers’ needs -
tailored service to fit their equipment,
growing techniques, processing &
storage equipment
-Meaningful feedback loop
-Trust, transparency, and confidence
in team and tech
Produce Distributors
-Trust in consistent performance
-Rapid response maintenance and
backup
- Technical expertise
Produce Growers
-Lower reliance on harvesting labor and
lower harvesting labor cost
-Reduce waste → increase volume of
sellable produce
-Reduce food safety incidents
-Consistently measure quality for buyers
-Enable growers to command premium for
higher quality produce
-Enable the creation of a brand around
product attributes
-It would be valuable to berry growers if we
could automate aesthetics and shelf life
testing
Produce Distributors
-Lower labor cost for quality assurance and
food safety
-Reduce food safety incidents
-Consistently measure quality
-Command premium for higher quality
produce
Retailers
-Grocery Produce QA will find significant
labor savings and reduced shrink through
automated scanning
-Online Grocery will find value through
delivering taste ratings to consumers
(increase revenue) and optimized logistics
for shelf life (reduced waste)
Produce Growers
Equipment model - Farm
equipment dealerships/ retailers
Service model - Direct Salesforce
Produce Distributors
-Direct Salesforce
-Food Safety Consultancies?
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
We realized we needed to measure value at Attribute / Customer intersection
Attribute
Measured
Grower Distributor
Grocery –
Brick &
Mortar
Grocery –
Online
Restaurant
Food
Service
Consumer
Taste
Aesthetics
s
Food
Safety
Ripeness /
Shelf Life
General
Thoughts
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
Customers say positive value, follow up
So we talked to 40 customers in 2 weeks
Attribute
Measured
Grower Distributor
Grocery – Brick
& Mortar
Grocery –
Online
Restaurant Food Service Consumer
Taste
“It’d be nice but I
don’t get paid on
it. I measure
BRIX just to hit
spec”
“It could be cool
to intelligently
send good stuff
to good
customers”
“Would be
nice…”
?
?
The big players
don’t care
I care, but it
needs to look
good or I’m not
buying
Aesthetics
We care. But not
sure how much?
“If you could
automate my
spec QA, you’d
have a $B
company”
?
We care, but
this isn’t a pain
point
Definitely
Food Safety
Bigger issue for
cut fruit (some
mention of
annoying FSMA)
We care, but
this isn’t a pain
point (although,
FSMA)
We care, but
this is mostly OK
already
Major concern
(we heard a lot
of Chipotle
references)
We care, but
this isn’t a pain
point (although,
FSMA)
Definitely
Ripeness / Shelf
Life
We’ve heard
yes, but want to
confirm
?
This could be
big!
? ? ?
General
Thoughts
“I just want to hit
my spec”
“This is
interesting, but
how would we
do it?”
“I’m busy”
Need to talk to
them
Need to talk to
them, but we’re
putting lower
priority
“Who cares”
We don’t want to
target
consumers
Mixed opinions or unsure, follow up
OK for big fruit.
Opportunity in
thin wall
produce
Customers say it doesn’t add value
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
Attribute
Measured
Grower Distributor
Grocery – Brick
& Mortar
Grocery –
Online
Restaurant Food Service Consumer
Taste
“It’d be nice but I
don’t get paid on
it. I measure
BRIX just to hit
spec”
“It could be cool
to intelligently
send good stuff
to good
customers”
“Would be
nice…”
?
?
The big players
don’t care
I care, but it
needs to look
good or I’m not
buying
Aesthetics
We care. But not
sure how much?
“If you could
automate my
spec QA, you’d
have a $B
company”
?
We care, but
this isn’t a pain
point
Definitely
Food Safety
Bigger issue for
cut fruit (some
mention of
annoying FSMA)
We care, but
this isn’t a pain
point (although,
FSMA)
We care, but
this is mostly OK
already
Major concern
(we heard a lot
of Chipotle
references)
We care, but
this isn’t a pain
point (although,
FSMA)
Definitely
Ripeness / Shelf
Life
We’ve heard
yes, but want to
confirm
?
This could be
big!
? ? ?
General
Thoughts
“I just want to hit
my spec”
“This is
interesting, but
how would we
do it?”
“I’m busy”
Need to talk to
them
Need to talk to
them, but we’re
putting lower
priority
“Who cares”
We don’t want to
target
consumers
So we talked to 40 customers in 2 weeks
OK for big fruit.
Opportunity in
thin wall
produce
WE DISPROVED
PRETTY MUCH
EVERYTHING
Customers say positive value, follow up Mixed opinions or unsure, follow up Customers say it doesn’t add value
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
Latest business model canvas
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
…and realized we were hallucinating
An automated fruit & vegetable
scanner that uses spectroscopy,
computer vision, and machine
learning to measure taste, shelf
life, and food safety
“If we can measure taste, the
whole market will adopt it and
grow better produce and we’ll
make tons of money!”
NOPEPre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
But where to pivot???
Bountiful Eng245 2017
Bountiful Eng245 2017
SUPPLY VARIATION  VERY SMALL
PROBLEM
DEMAND VARIATION (HOW MANY
CUSTOMERS PER DAY)  BIG
PROBLEM
…we had come upon a huge problem
$218B
63M Tons
$57B
25M Tons
FOOD WASTE
Total
Consumer
Facing Biz
GROCERY STORES
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
We started exploring the problem and were surprised to find…
Current Solution
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
Manual
Time-intensive
Cumbersome
Inaccurate
Inconsistent
New idea! Demand Forecasting for Grocery
Current Solution Bountiful Solution
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
And it could be a potentially huge market
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
-Writing and maintaining
predictive software for demand
-Parse and analyze large
datasets for indicators that
impact consumer buying
patterns (demographic data)
-Data mining for social trends
scraping articles on current
events for trends, etc)
-Retailers that are currently
dissatisfied with their demand
forecasting/inventory management
software
-Retailers that currently have
-Restaurants
-Competitors to keep
-Researchers in the field of
predictive data analysis
Retailers
-Grocery stores that stock
perishable goods
-Specifically - produce
procurement directors and
store managers
Restaurants
-Premium sit-down
restaurants that buy
perishable ingredients the
day of preparation-Technical talent: engineers,
scientists, coders
-UI: tablets to be provided to
retailers
-Data to assess relevant
metrics
-Sales
Research - data analysts, predictive forecasting
Data analysis and reporting team - data scientists, UI for consumers, infrastructure,
servers, customer service
Channel managers
Marketing / Trade Shows
Salesforce
Retailer
Subscription service: customers pay yearly for demand forecasting
service based on volume of goods covered by the demand
forecasting software
Retailers
-Trust in consistent
performance
-Transparency in data
management and privacy
protection
-Quick updates and bug
patches
-Tailored service
Retailers
-Reduce shrink losses by
preventing over-purchasing
of perishable goods
-Reduce out-of-stock
incidents
-Reduce upfront costs in
overstocking
-Enable auto-placement of
orders based on demand
forecasts
Restaurants
-Reduce shrink losses by
preventing over-purchasing
of perishable goods
-Reduce labor cost during
low-demand hours
-Ensure customer
satisfaction by having more
waiting/kitchen staff during
high-demand periods
Retailers
-Direct Salesforce
-Trade shows
-VARs - software suite on a
tablet with retailer tools
So we created a new Business Model Canvas
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
We quickly spoke to >40 grocery store employees
• Validated our value propositions
• Discovered new value proposition of
reduced ordering time
• Learned a ton about our customer
• i.e., Produce Buyer is the end user,
CFO is economic decision maker
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
…and got to know our customer
Bill the Produce
Buyer
Job title: Produce
Buyer
Jobs done: Receive
produce, count
inventory, assess sales
velocity, place orders
Location: Everytown,
USA
Starts work: 5am
Ends work: 12:30pm
40,000 “Bill the Produce Buyers” in US
100,000+ Store Buyers of Fresh in US
Calculation:
# of grocery stores in US: 40,000
# produce buyers per grocery store: 1
Receive produce from truck and
break down pallets
Assess last night + this morning’s
sales by looking and talking to team
Check out computer data (historical
sales) & place tomorrow’s order
5AM
9AM
10AM
Customer Archetype
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
…and got to know our customer
Bill the Produce
Buyer
Job title: Produce
Buyer
Jobs done: Receive
produce, count
inventory, assess sales
velocity, place orders
Location: Everytown,
USA
Starts work: 5am
Ends work: 12:30pm
40,000 “Bill the Produce Buyers” in US
100,000+ Store Buyers of Fresh in US
Calculation:
# of grocery stores in US: 40,000
# produce buyers per grocery store: 1
Receive produce from truck and
break down pallets
Assess last night + this morning’s
sales by looking and talking to team
Check out computer data (historical
sales) & place tomorrow’s order
5AM
9AM
10AM
Customer Archetype
THE 20 YEAR OLD KID WHO
UNLOADS THE TRUCK IS
THE SAME GUY WHO
PLACES THE ORDER!
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
…and got to know our customer
Bill the Produce
Buyer
Job title: Produce
Buyer
Jobs done: Receive
produce, count
inventory, assess sales
velocity, place orders
Location: Everytown,
USA
Starts work: 5am
Ends work: 12:30pm
40,000 “Bill the Produce Buyers” in US
100,000+ Store Buyers of Fresh in US
Calculation:
# of grocery stores in US: 40,000
# produce buyers per grocery store: 1
Receive produce from truck and
break down pallets
Assess last night + this morning’s
sales by looking and talking to team
Check out computer data (historical
sales) & place tomorrow’s order
5AM
9AM
10AM
Customer Archetype
THE 20 YEAR OLD KID IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR A
CRITICAL COST DRIVER IN A
2-3% MARGIN BUSINESS!!!
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
...and started trying to sell pilots
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
…with mocked up Dashboards as an MVP
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
So we did what anybody in there right mind would do…
“How do we validate
Willingness To Pay & a bunch of
other canvas hypotheses???”
WE WENT TO VEGAS
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
-Software development:
aggregate internal data; aggregate
external data
-AI development: build predictive
algorithm for sales; build tool that
takes sales prediction and suggests
purchasing
-UI development: Design tools to be
effectively used by grocery buyers
and owners
-Retailers that currently have no or
inadequate demand forecasting
solution
-Competitors, including non-direct
competitors selling retail software
but not in perishables
-Researchers in the field of predictive
data analysis
Large Medium Retailers
-Grocery stores that stock
perishable goods and have
data and some tools for
purchasing
-Specifically - produce
procurement directors and
store managers
Small Retailers
-Small mom-and-pop stores
that stock perishables and
have data but no tools to use it
intelligently
Food Service
-Food Service companies that
serve large organizations and
have data but no tools to use it
intelligently
-Technical talent: data
scientists, coders
-Customer data
-UI: tablets, computer
software, or physical reports
to be provided to retailers
-Exogenous data
-Salesforce
Research - data analysts, predictive forecasting
Data analysis and reporting team - data scientists, UI for consumers, infrastructure, servers,
customer service
Channel managers
Marketing / Trade Shows
Salesforce
Retailers and Food Service
Subscription service: customers pay yearly for demand forecasting service
based on volume of goods covered by the demand forecasting software
SaaS - Value-based pricing possible
Retailers
-Trust in consistent
performance - proven cost
savings
-Transparency in data
management and privacy
protection
-Quick updates and bug
patches
-Tailored service
Retailers
-Predict demand based on a
myriad of inputs - current
events/social trends,
promotions, weather change,
demand of related products.
-Reduce shrink by preventing
over-purchasing of perishable
goods
-Reduce out-of-stock incidents
-Reduce upfront costs in
overstocking
-Enable auto-placement of
orders based on demand
forecasts
-Spend more time rotating
produce instead of ordering
-Improving cash position by
reducing necessary buffer
stock in inventory
Retailers
-Direct Salesforce
-Trade shows
-Pilot programs
-Word of mouth - increased
performance of one retailer
will drive competitors to adopt
-
We left with many learnings
…and many potential pilots
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
“You are right on the
money with this idea –
we’re interested”
-EVP, Large Grocery
Chain
“If you are able to do
this, it would save
$55M across our 200
stores in 3 years”
-Director of Shrink,
Medium Grocery Chain
We’re projecting a run rate revenue of $3.5M in <3 years
• Assumes 10 stores
in 2017, 100 stores
in 2018, and 500
stores in 2019
• Assumes ~$2,500
price point per
store per year
(very conservative)
We’re going to pursue this as a business going forward!
Biggest Open Questions
Just how much better can our
tech do than the current
solution?
How much will customers
actually pay for this?
How much will it cost us to
integrate with customers?
Push forward with Pilot
Programs
Next Steps
Get customers to sign
Letters of Intent
Benchmark with other
grocery software vendors
that integrate with POS
systems
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
BOUNTIFUL
THANK YOU!
Intelligent Food
Purchasing

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Bountiful Eng245 2017

  • 1. Bountiful Automated fruit & vegetable scanner: taste, appearance, shelf-life, food safety # of Interviews: >200 (153 class + >50 prior) ORIGINAL IDEA FINAL IDEA Demand forecasting and intelligent purchasing for grocery stores
  • 2. Matt Schwartz MBA / MS (Food & Ag) Founder, Protein Snack Co Food & Ag Operations Nathan Fenner MBA + BS/MS & Lecturer Stanford Mechanical Engineering Robotics Engineer Stacey Huang PhD Candidate Electrical Engineering Spectroscopy Mayank Agarwal MS MS&E Computer Science Team Mentor Partner, CTO Khosla Ventures Deep Startup & Engineering Expertise Sven Strohband Team Bountiful
  • 3. Our initial interest Pre- class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Beyon d
  • 4. Our initial solution An automated fruit & vegetable scanner that uses spectroscopy, computer vision, and machine learning to measure taste, shelf life, and food safety “If we can measure taste, the whole market will adopt it and grow better produce and we’ll make tons of money!” Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Beyon d
  • 5. -Classify produce distinguishing between sellable (meets buyer specifications) vs. unsellable; ultimately create spectrum of unsellable to perfect (incl. dimensions of taste & safety) -Sort produce quickly, cheaply, and with no harm to produce -Maintain customer data platform / user interface (Produce Grower: performance per acre; Produce Distributor: performance per supplier farm) Business Model Canvas Update -Produce buyers and end customers: retailers, restaurants, food service providers -Taste experts and laboratories to inform classification and gradation of the produce -Agriculture and Food Regulators and Gov’t entities (FDA, USDA) -Food safety international standard setters (BRC, SQF) -Food safety consultants Key Suppliers: -Machine parts? Produce Growers Long-term: All types of produce growers Short-term: strawberry growers and high-value lettuce growers -Initial buyers may include Food Safety and Quality Assurance within grower businesses Produce Distributors Companies that purchase produce from the farm gate or directly from growers to re-sell to Restaurants / Grocers / Food Service and vertically integrated distributors (e.g., Sysco) Long term: all distributors Short term: focus on large distributors who purchase at scale -Technical talent: engineers, scientists, coders -Machinery: harvesting and produce-sorting robot -Data from each kind of produce for calibration of the produce-sorting classification routine -Financial capital to build initial equipment -Sales Machinery construction/maintenance - parts, labor Research - sensor and ML experts, food scientists, taste experts Data analysis and reporting team - data scientists, UI for consumers, infrastructure, servers, customer service [Service model only] - labor to man the harvest robot / produce scanner Channel managers Marketing / Trade Shows Salesforce Produce Growers If subscription service: customers pay for harvesting and categorization service (charged as % of selling price of produce assessed) If equipment: customers purchase harvest robot that can be self-operated Produce Distributors If subscription service: customers pay for quality detection, food safety analyses, & classification (charged as % of selling price of produce assessed) If equipment: customers purchase scanner that can be self-operated Produce Growers -Responsive to growers’ needs - tailored service to fit their equipment, growing techniques, processing & storage equipment -Meaningful feedback loop -Trust, transparency, and confidence in team and tech Produce Distributors -Trust in consistent performance -Rapid response maintenance and backup - Technical expertise Produce Growers -Lower reliance on harvesting labor and lower harvesting labor cost -Reduce waste → increase volume of sellable produce -Reduce food safety incidents -Consistently measure quality for buyers -Enable growers to command premium for higher quality produce -Enable the creation of a brand around product attributes -It would be valuable to berry growers if we could automate aesthetics and shelf life testing Produce Distributors -Lower labor cost for quality assurance and food safety -Reduce food safety incidents -Consistently measure quality -Command premium for higher quality produce Retailers -Grocery Produce QA will find significant labor savings and reduced shrink through automated scanning -Online Grocery will find value through delivering taste ratings to consumers (increase revenue) and optimized logistics for shelf life (reduced waste) Produce Growers Equipment model - Farm equipment dealerships/ retailers Service model - Direct Salesforce Produce Distributors -Direct Salesforce -Food Safety Consultancies? Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Beyon d
  • 6. We realized we needed to measure value at Attribute / Customer intersection Attribute Measured Grower Distributor Grocery – Brick & Mortar Grocery – Online Restaurant Food Service Consumer Taste Aesthetics s Food Safety Ripeness / Shelf Life General Thoughts Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Beyon d
  • 7. Customers say positive value, follow up So we talked to 40 customers in 2 weeks Attribute Measured Grower Distributor Grocery – Brick & Mortar Grocery – Online Restaurant Food Service Consumer Taste “It’d be nice but I don’t get paid on it. I measure BRIX just to hit spec” “It could be cool to intelligently send good stuff to good customers” “Would be nice…” ? ? The big players don’t care I care, but it needs to look good or I’m not buying Aesthetics We care. But not sure how much? “If you could automate my spec QA, you’d have a $B company” ? We care, but this isn’t a pain point Definitely Food Safety Bigger issue for cut fruit (some mention of annoying FSMA) We care, but this isn’t a pain point (although, FSMA) We care, but this is mostly OK already Major concern (we heard a lot of Chipotle references) We care, but this isn’t a pain point (although, FSMA) Definitely Ripeness / Shelf Life We’ve heard yes, but want to confirm ? This could be big! ? ? ? General Thoughts “I just want to hit my spec” “This is interesting, but how would we do it?” “I’m busy” Need to talk to them Need to talk to them, but we’re putting lower priority “Who cares” We don’t want to target consumers Mixed opinions or unsure, follow up OK for big fruit. Opportunity in thin wall produce Customers say it doesn’t add value Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Beyon d
  • 8. Attribute Measured Grower Distributor Grocery – Brick & Mortar Grocery – Online Restaurant Food Service Consumer Taste “It’d be nice but I don’t get paid on it. I measure BRIX just to hit spec” “It could be cool to intelligently send good stuff to good customers” “Would be nice…” ? ? The big players don’t care I care, but it needs to look good or I’m not buying Aesthetics We care. But not sure how much? “If you could automate my spec QA, you’d have a $B company” ? We care, but this isn’t a pain point Definitely Food Safety Bigger issue for cut fruit (some mention of annoying FSMA) We care, but this isn’t a pain point (although, FSMA) We care, but this is mostly OK already Major concern (we heard a lot of Chipotle references) We care, but this isn’t a pain point (although, FSMA) Definitely Ripeness / Shelf Life We’ve heard yes, but want to confirm ? This could be big! ? ? ? General Thoughts “I just want to hit my spec” “This is interesting, but how would we do it?” “I’m busy” Need to talk to them Need to talk to them, but we’re putting lower priority “Who cares” We don’t want to target consumers So we talked to 40 customers in 2 weeks OK for big fruit. Opportunity in thin wall produce WE DISPROVED PRETTY MUCH EVERYTHING Customers say positive value, follow up Mixed opinions or unsure, follow up Customers say it doesn’t add value Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Beyon d
  • 9. Latest business model canvas Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Beyon d
  • 10. …and realized we were hallucinating An automated fruit & vegetable scanner that uses spectroscopy, computer vision, and machine learning to measure taste, shelf life, and food safety “If we can measure taste, the whole market will adopt it and grow better produce and we’ll make tons of money!” NOPEPre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Beyon d
  • 11. But where to pivot???
  • 14. SUPPLY VARIATION  VERY SMALL PROBLEM DEMAND VARIATION (HOW MANY CUSTOMERS PER DAY)  BIG PROBLEM
  • 15. …we had come upon a huge problem $218B 63M Tons $57B 25M Tons FOOD WASTE Total Consumer Facing Biz GROCERY STORES Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Beyon d
  • 16. We started exploring the problem and were surprised to find… Current Solution Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Beyon d Manual Time-intensive Cumbersome Inaccurate Inconsistent
  • 17. New idea! Demand Forecasting for Grocery Current Solution Bountiful Solution Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Beyon d
  • 18. And it could be a potentially huge market Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Beyon d
  • 19. -Writing and maintaining predictive software for demand -Parse and analyze large datasets for indicators that impact consumer buying patterns (demographic data) -Data mining for social trends scraping articles on current events for trends, etc) -Retailers that are currently dissatisfied with their demand forecasting/inventory management software -Retailers that currently have -Restaurants -Competitors to keep -Researchers in the field of predictive data analysis Retailers -Grocery stores that stock perishable goods -Specifically - produce procurement directors and store managers Restaurants -Premium sit-down restaurants that buy perishable ingredients the day of preparation-Technical talent: engineers, scientists, coders -UI: tablets to be provided to retailers -Data to assess relevant metrics -Sales Research - data analysts, predictive forecasting Data analysis and reporting team - data scientists, UI for consumers, infrastructure, servers, customer service Channel managers Marketing / Trade Shows Salesforce Retailer Subscription service: customers pay yearly for demand forecasting service based on volume of goods covered by the demand forecasting software Retailers -Trust in consistent performance -Transparency in data management and privacy protection -Quick updates and bug patches -Tailored service Retailers -Reduce shrink losses by preventing over-purchasing of perishable goods -Reduce out-of-stock incidents -Reduce upfront costs in overstocking -Enable auto-placement of orders based on demand forecasts Restaurants -Reduce shrink losses by preventing over-purchasing of perishable goods -Reduce labor cost during low-demand hours -Ensure customer satisfaction by having more waiting/kitchen staff during high-demand periods Retailers -Direct Salesforce -Trade shows -VARs - software suite on a tablet with retailer tools So we created a new Business Model Canvas Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Beyon d
  • 20. We quickly spoke to >40 grocery store employees • Validated our value propositions • Discovered new value proposition of reduced ordering time • Learned a ton about our customer • i.e., Produce Buyer is the end user, CFO is economic decision maker Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Beyon d
  • 21. …and got to know our customer Bill the Produce Buyer Job title: Produce Buyer Jobs done: Receive produce, count inventory, assess sales velocity, place orders Location: Everytown, USA Starts work: 5am Ends work: 12:30pm 40,000 “Bill the Produce Buyers” in US 100,000+ Store Buyers of Fresh in US Calculation: # of grocery stores in US: 40,000 # produce buyers per grocery store: 1 Receive produce from truck and break down pallets Assess last night + this morning’s sales by looking and talking to team Check out computer data (historical sales) & place tomorrow’s order 5AM 9AM 10AM Customer Archetype Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Beyon d
  • 22. …and got to know our customer Bill the Produce Buyer Job title: Produce Buyer Jobs done: Receive produce, count inventory, assess sales velocity, place orders Location: Everytown, USA Starts work: 5am Ends work: 12:30pm 40,000 “Bill the Produce Buyers” in US 100,000+ Store Buyers of Fresh in US Calculation: # of grocery stores in US: 40,000 # produce buyers per grocery store: 1 Receive produce from truck and break down pallets Assess last night + this morning’s sales by looking and talking to team Check out computer data (historical sales) & place tomorrow’s order 5AM 9AM 10AM Customer Archetype THE 20 YEAR OLD KID WHO UNLOADS THE TRUCK IS THE SAME GUY WHO PLACES THE ORDER! Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Beyon d
  • 23. …and got to know our customer Bill the Produce Buyer Job title: Produce Buyer Jobs done: Receive produce, count inventory, assess sales velocity, place orders Location: Everytown, USA Starts work: 5am Ends work: 12:30pm 40,000 “Bill the Produce Buyers” in US 100,000+ Store Buyers of Fresh in US Calculation: # of grocery stores in US: 40,000 # produce buyers per grocery store: 1 Receive produce from truck and break down pallets Assess last night + this morning’s sales by looking and talking to team Check out computer data (historical sales) & place tomorrow’s order 5AM 9AM 10AM Customer Archetype THE 20 YEAR OLD KID IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A CRITICAL COST DRIVER IN A 2-3% MARGIN BUSINESS!!! Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Beyon d
  • 24. ...and started trying to sell pilots Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Beyon d
  • 25. …with mocked up Dashboards as an MVP Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Beyon d
  • 26. So we did what anybody in there right mind would do… “How do we validate Willingness To Pay & a bunch of other canvas hypotheses???”
  • 27. WE WENT TO VEGAS Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Beyon d
  • 28. -Software development: aggregate internal data; aggregate external data -AI development: build predictive algorithm for sales; build tool that takes sales prediction and suggests purchasing -UI development: Design tools to be effectively used by grocery buyers and owners -Retailers that currently have no or inadequate demand forecasting solution -Competitors, including non-direct competitors selling retail software but not in perishables -Researchers in the field of predictive data analysis Large Medium Retailers -Grocery stores that stock perishable goods and have data and some tools for purchasing -Specifically - produce procurement directors and store managers Small Retailers -Small mom-and-pop stores that stock perishables and have data but no tools to use it intelligently Food Service -Food Service companies that serve large organizations and have data but no tools to use it intelligently -Technical talent: data scientists, coders -Customer data -UI: tablets, computer software, or physical reports to be provided to retailers -Exogenous data -Salesforce Research - data analysts, predictive forecasting Data analysis and reporting team - data scientists, UI for consumers, infrastructure, servers, customer service Channel managers Marketing / Trade Shows Salesforce Retailers and Food Service Subscription service: customers pay yearly for demand forecasting service based on volume of goods covered by the demand forecasting software SaaS - Value-based pricing possible Retailers -Trust in consistent performance - proven cost savings -Transparency in data management and privacy protection -Quick updates and bug patches -Tailored service Retailers -Predict demand based on a myriad of inputs - current events/social trends, promotions, weather change, demand of related products. -Reduce shrink by preventing over-purchasing of perishable goods -Reduce out-of-stock incidents -Reduce upfront costs in overstocking -Enable auto-placement of orders based on demand forecasts -Spend more time rotating produce instead of ordering -Improving cash position by reducing necessary buffer stock in inventory Retailers -Direct Salesforce -Trade shows -Pilot programs -Word of mouth - increased performance of one retailer will drive competitors to adopt - We left with many learnings
  • 29. …and many potential pilots Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Beyon d “You are right on the money with this idea – we’re interested” -EVP, Large Grocery Chain “If you are able to do this, it would save $55M across our 200 stores in 3 years” -Director of Shrink, Medium Grocery Chain
  • 30. We’re projecting a run rate revenue of $3.5M in <3 years • Assumes 10 stores in 2017, 100 stores in 2018, and 500 stores in 2019 • Assumes ~$2,500 price point per store per year (very conservative)
  • 31. We’re going to pursue this as a business going forward! Biggest Open Questions Just how much better can our tech do than the current solution? How much will customers actually pay for this? How much will it cost us to integrate with customers? Push forward with Pilot Programs Next Steps Get customers to sign Letters of Intent Benchmark with other grocery software vendors that integrate with POS systems Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Beyon d