1. Bountiful
Automated fruit & vegetable scanner:
taste, appearance, shelf-life, food safety
# of Interviews: >200 (153 class + >50 prior)
ORIGINAL
IDEA
FINAL IDEA Demand forecasting and intelligent
purchasing for grocery stores
2. Matt
Schwartz
MBA / MS (Food & Ag)
Founder, Protein Snack Co
Food & Ag Operations
Nathan
Fenner
MBA + BS/MS & Lecturer
Stanford Mechanical
Engineering
Robotics Engineer
Stacey
Huang
PhD Candidate Electrical
Engineering
Spectroscopy
Mayank
Agarwal
MS MS&E
Computer Science
Team Mentor
Partner, CTO Khosla Ventures
Deep Startup & Engineering
Expertise
Sven
Strohband
Team Bountiful
4. Our initial solution
An automated fruit & vegetable
scanner that uses spectroscopy,
computer vision, and machine
learning to measure taste, shelf
life, and food safety
“If we can measure taste, the
whole market will adopt it and
grow better produce and we’ll
make tons of money!”
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
5. -Classify produce distinguishing
between sellable (meets buyer
specifications) vs. unsellable; ultimately
create spectrum of unsellable to perfect
(incl. dimensions of taste & safety)
-Sort produce quickly, cheaply, and with
no harm to produce
-Maintain customer data platform / user
interface (Produce Grower:
performance per acre; Produce
Distributor: performance per supplier
farm)
Business Model Canvas Update
-Produce buyers and end customers:
retailers, restaurants, food service
providers
-Taste experts and laboratories to inform
classification and gradation of the produce
-Agriculture and Food Regulators and
Gov’t entities (FDA, USDA)
-Food safety international standard setters
(BRC, SQF)
-Food safety consultants
Key Suppliers:
-Machine parts?
Produce Growers
Long-term: All types of produce
growers
Short-term: strawberry growers
and high-value lettuce growers
-Initial buyers may include Food
Safety and Quality Assurance
within grower businesses
Produce Distributors
Companies that purchase produce
from the farm gate or directly from
growers to re-sell to Restaurants /
Grocers / Food Service and
vertically integrated distributors
(e.g., Sysco)
Long term: all distributors
Short term: focus on large
distributors who purchase at scale
-Technical talent: engineers,
scientists, coders
-Machinery: harvesting and
produce-sorting robot
-Data from each kind of produce for
calibration of the produce-sorting
classification routine
-Financial capital to build initial
equipment
-Sales
Machinery construction/maintenance - parts, labor
Research - sensor and ML experts, food scientists, taste experts
Data analysis and reporting team - data scientists, UI for consumers, infrastructure, servers,
customer service
[Service model only] - labor to man the harvest robot / produce scanner
Channel managers
Marketing / Trade Shows
Salesforce
Produce Growers
If subscription service: customers pay for harvesting and categorization service
(charged as % of selling price of produce assessed)
If equipment: customers purchase harvest robot that can be self-operated
Produce Distributors
If subscription service: customers pay for quality detection, food safety analyses, &
classification (charged as % of selling price of produce assessed)
If equipment: customers purchase scanner that can be self-operated
Produce Growers
-Responsive to growers’ needs -
tailored service to fit their equipment,
growing techniques, processing &
storage equipment
-Meaningful feedback loop
-Trust, transparency, and confidence
in team and tech
Produce Distributors
-Trust in consistent performance
-Rapid response maintenance and
backup
- Technical expertise
Produce Growers
-Lower reliance on harvesting labor and
lower harvesting labor cost
-Reduce waste → increase volume of
sellable produce
-Reduce food safety incidents
-Consistently measure quality for buyers
-Enable growers to command premium for
higher quality produce
-Enable the creation of a brand around
product attributes
-It would be valuable to berry growers if we
could automate aesthetics and shelf life
testing
Produce Distributors
-Lower labor cost for quality assurance and
food safety
-Reduce food safety incidents
-Consistently measure quality
-Command premium for higher quality
produce
Retailers
-Grocery Produce QA will find significant
labor savings and reduced shrink through
automated scanning
-Online Grocery will find value through
delivering taste ratings to consumers
(increase revenue) and optimized logistics
for shelf life (reduced waste)
Produce Growers
Equipment model - Farm
equipment dealerships/ retailers
Service model - Direct Salesforce
Produce Distributors
-Direct Salesforce
-Food Safety Consultancies?
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
6. We realized we needed to measure value at Attribute / Customer intersection
Attribute
Measured
Grower Distributor
Grocery –
Brick &
Mortar
Grocery –
Online
Restaurant
Food
Service
Consumer
Taste
Aesthetics
s
Food
Safety
Ripeness /
Shelf Life
General
Thoughts
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
7. Customers say positive value, follow up
So we talked to 40 customers in 2 weeks
Attribute
Measured
Grower Distributor
Grocery – Brick
& Mortar
Grocery –
Online
Restaurant Food Service Consumer
Taste
“It’d be nice but I
don’t get paid on
it. I measure
BRIX just to hit
spec”
“It could be cool
to intelligently
send good stuff
to good
customers”
“Would be
nice…”
?
?
The big players
don’t care
I care, but it
needs to look
good or I’m not
buying
Aesthetics
We care. But not
sure how much?
“If you could
automate my
spec QA, you’d
have a $B
company”
?
We care, but
this isn’t a pain
point
Definitely
Food Safety
Bigger issue for
cut fruit (some
mention of
annoying FSMA)
We care, but
this isn’t a pain
point (although,
FSMA)
We care, but
this is mostly OK
already
Major concern
(we heard a lot
of Chipotle
references)
We care, but
this isn’t a pain
point (although,
FSMA)
Definitely
Ripeness / Shelf
Life
We’ve heard
yes, but want to
confirm
?
This could be
big!
? ? ?
General
Thoughts
“I just want to hit
my spec”
“This is
interesting, but
how would we
do it?”
“I’m busy”
Need to talk to
them
Need to talk to
them, but we’re
putting lower
priority
“Who cares”
We don’t want to
target
consumers
Mixed opinions or unsure, follow up
OK for big fruit.
Opportunity in
thin wall
produce
Customers say it doesn’t add value
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
8. Attribute
Measured
Grower Distributor
Grocery – Brick
& Mortar
Grocery –
Online
Restaurant Food Service Consumer
Taste
“It’d be nice but I
don’t get paid on
it. I measure
BRIX just to hit
spec”
“It could be cool
to intelligently
send good stuff
to good
customers”
“Would be
nice…”
?
?
The big players
don’t care
I care, but it
needs to look
good or I’m not
buying
Aesthetics
We care. But not
sure how much?
“If you could
automate my
spec QA, you’d
have a $B
company”
?
We care, but
this isn’t a pain
point
Definitely
Food Safety
Bigger issue for
cut fruit (some
mention of
annoying FSMA)
We care, but
this isn’t a pain
point (although,
FSMA)
We care, but
this is mostly OK
already
Major concern
(we heard a lot
of Chipotle
references)
We care, but
this isn’t a pain
point (although,
FSMA)
Definitely
Ripeness / Shelf
Life
We’ve heard
yes, but want to
confirm
?
This could be
big!
? ? ?
General
Thoughts
“I just want to hit
my spec”
“This is
interesting, but
how would we
do it?”
“I’m busy”
Need to talk to
them
Need to talk to
them, but we’re
putting lower
priority
“Who cares”
We don’t want to
target
consumers
So we talked to 40 customers in 2 weeks
OK for big fruit.
Opportunity in
thin wall
produce
WE DISPROVED
PRETTY MUCH
EVERYTHING
Customers say positive value, follow up Mixed opinions or unsure, follow up Customers say it doesn’t add value
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
10. …and realized we were hallucinating
An automated fruit & vegetable
scanner that uses spectroscopy,
computer vision, and machine
learning to measure taste, shelf
life, and food safety
“If we can measure taste, the
whole market will adopt it and
grow better produce and we’ll
make tons of money!”
NOPEPre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
14. SUPPLY VARIATION VERY SMALL
PROBLEM
DEMAND VARIATION (HOW MANY
CUSTOMERS PER DAY) BIG
PROBLEM
15. …we had come upon a huge problem
$218B
63M Tons
$57B
25M Tons
FOOD WASTE
Total
Consumer
Facing Biz
GROCERY STORES
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
16. We started exploring the problem and were surprised to find…
Current Solution
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
Manual
Time-intensive
Cumbersome
Inaccurate
Inconsistent
17. New idea! Demand Forecasting for Grocery
Current Solution Bountiful Solution
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
18. And it could be a potentially huge market
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
19. -Writing and maintaining
predictive software for demand
-Parse and analyze large
datasets for indicators that
impact consumer buying
patterns (demographic data)
-Data mining for social trends
scraping articles on current
events for trends, etc)
-Retailers that are currently
dissatisfied with their demand
forecasting/inventory management
software
-Retailers that currently have
-Restaurants
-Competitors to keep
-Researchers in the field of
predictive data analysis
Retailers
-Grocery stores that stock
perishable goods
-Specifically - produce
procurement directors and
store managers
Restaurants
-Premium sit-down
restaurants that buy
perishable ingredients the
day of preparation-Technical talent: engineers,
scientists, coders
-UI: tablets to be provided to
retailers
-Data to assess relevant
metrics
-Sales
Research - data analysts, predictive forecasting
Data analysis and reporting team - data scientists, UI for consumers, infrastructure,
servers, customer service
Channel managers
Marketing / Trade Shows
Salesforce
Retailer
Subscription service: customers pay yearly for demand forecasting
service based on volume of goods covered by the demand
forecasting software
Retailers
-Trust in consistent
performance
-Transparency in data
management and privacy
protection
-Quick updates and bug
patches
-Tailored service
Retailers
-Reduce shrink losses by
preventing over-purchasing
of perishable goods
-Reduce out-of-stock
incidents
-Reduce upfront costs in
overstocking
-Enable auto-placement of
orders based on demand
forecasts
Restaurants
-Reduce shrink losses by
preventing over-purchasing
of perishable goods
-Reduce labor cost during
low-demand hours
-Ensure customer
satisfaction by having more
waiting/kitchen staff during
high-demand periods
Retailers
-Direct Salesforce
-Trade shows
-VARs - software suite on a
tablet with retailer tools
So we created a new Business Model Canvas
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
20. We quickly spoke to >40 grocery store employees
• Validated our value propositions
• Discovered new value proposition of
reduced ordering time
• Learned a ton about our customer
• i.e., Produce Buyer is the end user,
CFO is economic decision maker
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
21. …and got to know our customer
Bill the Produce
Buyer
Job title: Produce
Buyer
Jobs done: Receive
produce, count
inventory, assess sales
velocity, place orders
Location: Everytown,
USA
Starts work: 5am
Ends work: 12:30pm
40,000 “Bill the Produce Buyers” in US
100,000+ Store Buyers of Fresh in US
Calculation:
# of grocery stores in US: 40,000
# produce buyers per grocery store: 1
Receive produce from truck and
break down pallets
Assess last night + this morning’s
sales by looking and talking to team
Check out computer data (historical
sales) & place tomorrow’s order
5AM
9AM
10AM
Customer Archetype
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
22. …and got to know our customer
Bill the Produce
Buyer
Job title: Produce
Buyer
Jobs done: Receive
produce, count
inventory, assess sales
velocity, place orders
Location: Everytown,
USA
Starts work: 5am
Ends work: 12:30pm
40,000 “Bill the Produce Buyers” in US
100,000+ Store Buyers of Fresh in US
Calculation:
# of grocery stores in US: 40,000
# produce buyers per grocery store: 1
Receive produce from truck and
break down pallets
Assess last night + this morning’s
sales by looking and talking to team
Check out computer data (historical
sales) & place tomorrow’s order
5AM
9AM
10AM
Customer Archetype
THE 20 YEAR OLD KID WHO
UNLOADS THE TRUCK IS
THE SAME GUY WHO
PLACES THE ORDER!
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
23. …and got to know our customer
Bill the Produce
Buyer
Job title: Produce
Buyer
Jobs done: Receive
produce, count
inventory, assess sales
velocity, place orders
Location: Everytown,
USA
Starts work: 5am
Ends work: 12:30pm
40,000 “Bill the Produce Buyers” in US
100,000+ Store Buyers of Fresh in US
Calculation:
# of grocery stores in US: 40,000
# produce buyers per grocery store: 1
Receive produce from truck and
break down pallets
Assess last night + this morning’s
sales by looking and talking to team
Check out computer data (historical
sales) & place tomorrow’s order
5AM
9AM
10AM
Customer Archetype
THE 20 YEAR OLD KID IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR A
CRITICAL COST DRIVER IN A
2-3% MARGIN BUSINESS!!!
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
25. …with mocked up Dashboards as an MVP
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
26. So we did what anybody in there right mind would do…
“How do we validate
Willingness To Pay & a bunch of
other canvas hypotheses???”
27. WE WENT TO VEGAS
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
28. -Software development:
aggregate internal data; aggregate
external data
-AI development: build predictive
algorithm for sales; build tool that
takes sales prediction and suggests
purchasing
-UI development: Design tools to be
effectively used by grocery buyers
and owners
-Retailers that currently have no or
inadequate demand forecasting
solution
-Competitors, including non-direct
competitors selling retail software
but not in perishables
-Researchers in the field of predictive
data analysis
Large Medium Retailers
-Grocery stores that stock
perishable goods and have
data and some tools for
purchasing
-Specifically - produce
procurement directors and
store managers
Small Retailers
-Small mom-and-pop stores
that stock perishables and
have data but no tools to use it
intelligently
Food Service
-Food Service companies that
serve large organizations and
have data but no tools to use it
intelligently
-Technical talent: data
scientists, coders
-Customer data
-UI: tablets, computer
software, or physical reports
to be provided to retailers
-Exogenous data
-Salesforce
Research - data analysts, predictive forecasting
Data analysis and reporting team - data scientists, UI for consumers, infrastructure, servers,
customer service
Channel managers
Marketing / Trade Shows
Salesforce
Retailers and Food Service
Subscription service: customers pay yearly for demand forecasting service
based on volume of goods covered by the demand forecasting software
SaaS - Value-based pricing possible
Retailers
-Trust in consistent
performance - proven cost
savings
-Transparency in data
management and privacy
protection
-Quick updates and bug
patches
-Tailored service
Retailers
-Predict demand based on a
myriad of inputs - current
events/social trends,
promotions, weather change,
demand of related products.
-Reduce shrink by preventing
over-purchasing of perishable
goods
-Reduce out-of-stock incidents
-Reduce upfront costs in
overstocking
-Enable auto-placement of
orders based on demand
forecasts
-Spend more time rotating
produce instead of ordering
-Improving cash position by
reducing necessary buffer
stock in inventory
Retailers
-Direct Salesforce
-Trade shows
-Pilot programs
-Word of mouth - increased
performance of one retailer
will drive competitors to adopt
-
We left with many learnings
29. …and many potential pilots
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d
“You are right on the
money with this idea –
we’re interested”
-EVP, Large Grocery
Chain
“If you are able to do
this, it would save
$55M across our 200
stores in 3 years”
-Director of Shrink,
Medium Grocery Chain
30. We’re projecting a run rate revenue of $3.5M in <3 years
• Assumes 10 stores
in 2017, 100 stores
in 2018, and 500
stores in 2019
• Assumes ~$2,500
price point per
store per year
(very conservative)
31. We’re going to pursue this as a business going forward!
Biggest Open Questions
Just how much better can our
tech do than the current
solution?
How much will customers
actually pay for this?
How much will it cost us to
integrate with customers?
Push forward with Pilot
Programs
Next Steps
Get customers to sign
Letters of Intent
Benchmark with other
grocery software vendors
that integrate with POS
systems
Pre-class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Beyon
d