1. Ha Noi & HCMC Real Estate Market Q3 2009
Presented by Savills Vietnam Co., Ltd.
October 2009
2. Presentation structure
•I. Ha Noi real estate market Q3 2009
•II. HCMC real estate market Q3 2009
•III. Viet Nam economic overview
3. I. Ha Noi Real Estate Market Overview Q3 2009
Market sectors: •1 - Office for lease market
•2 - Retail market
•3 - Hotel market
•4 - Apartment for sale market
•5 - Serviced apartment market
Ha Noi market
4. (1/5) Office for lease: Total supply
CEO Tower
• Total supply:
– 74 office for lease buildings comprising 493,000 sq m
– +10% q-o-q
• 12 Grade A, 30 Grade B and 32 Grade C
buildings
• 3 new Grade B office buildings (46,000 sq m):
– CEO Tower, Pham Hung Street, 13,000 sq m
– Handiresco, Kim Ma Street, 21,000 sq m
– Plaschem, Nguyen Van Cu Street, 12,000 sq m
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
5. (1/5) Office for lease: Supply by district
• Largest supply in Hoan Kiem District • Grade A: 21%, mainly in Hoan Kiem District,
(30%), smallest supply: Tay Ho unchanged q-o-q. Grade B: 54%, largest
District (1%) supply, +20% q-o-q. Grade C: 24%
No. of Net office space for lease (RHS)
buildings No of bldgs (LHS) Sq m Grade A Grade B Grade C
sq m
30 160,000 300,000
140,000
25 250,000
120,000
20 200,000
100,000
15 80,000 150,000 ]
60,000
10 100,000
40,000
5 50,000
20,000
0 0 -
Hoan Kiem Dong Da Ba Dinh Cau Giay Hai Ba Tu Liem Long Bien Tay Ho Q12008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q12009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
Trung
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
6. (1/5) Office for lease
Market performance by grade
Occupancy rate Average rent
100% 45
US$/sq m/month
• Overall performance is
90% 40
worsen than Q2 Rent gap
80% (Grade A & B):
35
• The average rent rate: 70%
US$15.6
US$28/sq m/month 30
60%
Rent gap 25
• Grade A rent/ Grade C 50% (Grade B & C):
US$9.6
rent ~ 2.5 times 20
40%
• The average occupancy 15
30%
rate: 85% 20% 10
10% 5
0% 0
Grade A Grade B Grade C
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
8. (1/5) Office for lease: Leasing enquire index
Leasing enquiries seems to be trending upward since July 2009.
%
150
130
110
90
70 ?
re nd
r dT
50 wa
Up
30
10
-10
November
December
March
June
March
June
September
October
September
January
February
May
July
January
February
May
July
April
April
August
August
2008 2009
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
9. (1/5) Office for lease
Future supply forecast, Q4 2009 - 2012
sq m Current supply New supply
•By Q4 2009: more 145,000 2,000,000
sq m, 10 projects
•2010 & 2011: about 350,000 1,600,000
sq m more each year
•By 2012: more 1.1 million sq 1,200,000
m, mainly in suburbs
800,000
400,000
0
Q4 2009 2010 2011 2012
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
10. (1/5) Office for lease
Future supply by district, Q4 2009 - 2012
• Main supply in secondary and suburban districts.
• Largest supply in Tu Liem & Cau Giay District.
Current supply as of Q3 2009 New supply of office space
sq m
350,000
CBD
9%
300,000
250,000
Suburban
40%
200,000
Secondary 150,000
51%
100,000
50,000
0
Ba Dinh Hoan Hai Ba Dong Hoang Cau Thanh Tay Ho Tu Liem Long
Kiem Trung Da Mai Giay Xuan Bien
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
11. (2/5) Retail market
• Total supply: 360,000 sq m, + 4% q-o-q
• 10 shopping centres, 2 department
stores, 2 hypermarkets, 78 supermarkets
& electronics, 2 wholesale centres and 12
retail podiums
• 1 new shopping centre - Vincom
Galleries, Ba Trieu Street, 15,000 sq m
Ha Noi market
12. (2/5) Retail market: Supply by location and type
Supply by location Supply by type
• CBD: 12%, unchanged q-o-q • Retail podium: mainly in CBD
• Secondary area: largest • Shopping centre & supermarket: mainly in
supply, 56%, +6% q-o-q secondary area
• Suburban area: 32%, • Hypermarket & wholesale market: mainly in
unchanged q-o-q suburban area.
Secondary 56% Retail Podiums
5% Hypermarket
CBD 24%
12% Supermarkets
31%
Shopping center
16%
Suburban Wholesales Department store
32% Centres 8%
16%
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
13. (2/5) Retail market
Market performance – occupancy rate
Shopping centre/ Department Store/ Hypermarket
Occupancy
•Overall occupancy: 90%- Retail P o dium
100%
95%, decrease 3-5% q-o-q
90%
•CBD: nearly 100%
80%
occupancy across all retail
types 70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
N/A data for retail podium
0%
CBD Secondary Suburban
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
14. (2/5) Retail market
Market performance – Rent rate
Rent range is varied by location and types of retails.
Widest range is for retail podium in CBD.
US$/sq m/month US$/sq m/month
130 160
120 120 Min Max 150 150 Min Max
110 140
100 130
120
90 120
80 110
70 100
70
60 90
57 50 80
50
70
40
60
30 50
20 40
20
10 38
7 30
0
30
20
CBD Secondary Suburban CBD Secondary
Shopping centre/ Department store Retail Podium
/ Hypermarket
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
15. (2/5) Retail market
Future supply Q4 2009 - 2012
sq m Existing stock Future st ock
•Q4 2009: 11,400 sq m 1,200,000
•2010: more than 1,000,000
82,000 sq m
800,000
•2011: 425,000 sq m,
largest future supply 600,000
•2012: 204,000 sq m
400,000
200,000
0
Q4 2009 2010 2011 2012
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
16. (3/5) Hotel: Total supply
• Total supply: 5,678 rooms
– Ten 5-star hotels, 2,983 rooms
– Six 4-star hotels, 1,083 rooms
– Twenty-two 3-star hotels, 1,612
rooms
• One new 4-star hotel, Mercure
Ha Noi La Gare, Ly Thuong
Kiet Street, with 102 rooms
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
17. (3/5) Hotel: Supply by district and grade
Supply by grade Supply by location
Largest segment: 5-star (53%) Largest provider: Hoan Kiem District (26%)
Smallest segment: 4-star (19%) Smallest provider: Long Bien District (1%)
Long Bien
1%
Dong Da
15% Hoan
3-star Kiem
28% 26%
5-star
53% Ba Dinh
25%
Tay Ho
4-star 22%
19% Hai Ba
Trung
11%
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
18. (3/5) Hotel
Market performance – RevPAR indicator
RevPAR (US$) 5-star 4-star 3-star
• RevPAV across all sectors: 110
-9% q-o-q 100
90
• RevPAV for 5-star hotels:
80
-10% q-o-q, largest decline
70
• RevPAV for 4-star hotels: 60
almost unchanged q-o-q 50
• RevPAV for 3-star hotels: 40
-9% q-o-q 30
20
10
0
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
n/ a
Revenue per available room (RevPAR) = Average Daily Room Rate x Occupancy Rate
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
19. (3/5) Hotel
Market performance of 4 & 5-star segment
5-star segment 4-star segment
ARR: -10% q-o-q ARR: -5% q-o-q
Occupancy: unchanged q-o-q Occupancy: +2% q-o-q
Average occupancy ARR Average occupancy ARR
Occupancy (%) US$ per night Occupancy (%) US$ per night
70 180 80 120
60 70
150 100
50 60
120 80
50
40
90 40 60
30
60 30
20
40
20
10 30 20
10
0 0 0 0
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q12009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q12009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
Average room rate (ARR) = the rooms revenue / the total number of guest rooms occupied.
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
20. (3/5) Hotel: International visitors & Future supply 2012
International visitors Future supply by 2012
• Number of international visitor to Viet Nam: • Mainly in Tu Liem & Cau Giay districts
-17% y-o-y in the next 2 years.
• Number of international visitor to Ha Noi: - • Mainly comes from 4 & 5-star hotel
2% y-o-y projects.
No. of foreign
Vietnam Hanoi # of rooms Existing stock Newsupply
visitors (million)
5 1
2,000
1
0,000
4
8,000
3
6,000
2
4,000
1
2,000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 First 9 0
months 201
0 201
1 Future
of 2009
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
21. (4/5) Apartment for sale: Total supply
Mipec Tower Keangnam Hanoi Landmark Tower
• Primary supply: 1,152
units from 10 active
projects
• Secondary supply:
29,150 units
Sky City Towers
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
22. (4/5) Apartment for sale:
Primary market by district and grade
•Largest supply: Tu Liem District, •Grade A ( 83.7%), Grade B (0.9%), and
smallest supply: Hoan Kiem District Grade C(15.5%)
•Un-balance among product types
Units
Units
600
1,000
Primary supply
500
800
400
600
300
400
200
100 200
0 0
Tu Liem Dong Da Hai Ba Trung Ba Dinh Hoan Kiem Grade A Grade B Grade C
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
23. (4/5) Apartment for sale:
Primary market performance
• Overall average primary Primary supply
asking price: +5% q-o-q No. of sold units in Q3 2009
No. of units Average primary asking price excl. VAT US$/ m2
• Sold units/ Primary 1,000 3,000
supply 900
800 2,500
Grade A = 27%
700
2,000
Grade B = 60% 600
Grade C = 96% 500 1,500
400
1,000
300
200
500
100
0 -
Grade A Grade B Grade C
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
24. (4/5) Apartment for sale:
Secondary market by district
Secondary supply mainly in Cau Giay, Tu Liem & Hoang Mai districts.
Units
8,000
7,000 Secondary supply
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Cau Tu Liem Hoang Dong Da Long Ba Dinh Hai Ba Tay Ho Thanh Hoan
Giay Mai Bien Trung Xuan Kiem
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
25. (4/5) Apartment for sale:
Secondary market performance – asking price
• Most increase are Cau Giay & Hoang Mai, 20% & 19.4% q-o-q respectively
• Lower increases in Hoan Kiem & Ba Dinh, 2.7% & 3.4% q-o-q respectively
Tu Liem Cau Giay Thanh Xuan Hoan Kiem Ba Dinh Tay Ho
US$/ sq m Hoang Mai Long Bien US$/ sq m Dong Da Hai Ba Trung
1,800 4,500
1,500 4,000
3,500
1,200
3,000
900
2,500
600
2,000
300
1,500
- 1,000
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
26. (4/5) Apartment for sale: High demand
• The average living space: 7 - 7.5
sq m/ person (year 2008, MOT)
• High income and saving
• High speed urbanization
• More attractive mortgage plans,
up to 70% value and repayment
time up to 20 years.
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
27. (4/5) Apartment for sale:
Supply up to end 2009
Notable projects expected to launch up to end 2009
No. Apartment project name District No. of Units
1 Project at 671 Hoang Hoa Tham (Phase II) Ba Dinh 40
2 Trung Yen 2 Cau Giay 240
3 Hanoi Indochina Plaza Cau Giay 390
4 Richland Southern Tower Cau Giay 176
5 Lilama Plaza Hoang Mai 150
6 Canal Park - Thach Ban New City (Phase I) Long Bien 148
7 CT1- Co Nhue New Urban Area Tu Liem 72
8 Megastar Dominium Tu Liem 336
9 Dolphin Plaza Tu Liem 400
Total 1,952
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
28. (4/6) Apartment for sale:
Future supply by year up to 2012
By 2012: 10,290 units expected, mainly in Tu Liem (34%) & Cau Giay (30%)
Hoan Kiem
Thanh Tri
Gia Lam
Tay Ho
No record for future supply by 2012 in these districts
Dong Anh
Hai Ba Trung
Long Bien
Thanh Xuan
Ba Dinh
Hoang Mai
Dong Da
Cau Giay
Tu Liem
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
Units
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
29. •Vinh Tuy Bridge put into operation
•Future infrastructure projects
(4/5) Apartment for sale:
Future supply by year up to 2012
Nhat Tan Bridge
Hoa Binh Park
Le Van Luong extended road
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
30. (5/5) Serviced Apartment – Total supply
Grade A Grade B Grade C
Units
• 41 projects, about 220,000
sq m, 2197 units 2,400
2,200
– 11 Grade A, 1,181 units
2,000
– 17 Grade B, 819 units
1,800
– 13 Grade C, 197 units
1,600
• 100 units from Fraser
1,400
Suites, Xuan Dieu Street,
1,200
entered the market in Q3
2009 1,000
800
600
400
200
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
31. (5/5) Serviced Apartment: Supply by district
Supply by unit size Supply by district
• Highest market share are units <100 sq m • Main stock in Tay Ho, Ba Dinh & Hoan Kiem
• Smallest market share are units >200 sq m • Fewer stock in Hoang Mai & Dong Da
• The smaller size, the higher market share
4%
Ba Dinh
10%
Cau Giay
28%
>200 sq m
38% Dong Da
150 sq m - 200 sq m
22% Hoang Mai
100 sq m - 150 sq m Hai Ba Trung
64% 8%
1%
<100 sq m Hoan Kiem
16% 3%
6% Tay Ho
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
33. (5/5) Serviced Apartment
Market performance by grade
Occupancy decreases 2% q-o-q across Grade A rent: decreased 11% q-o-q, to
all three grades 30.3US$/ sq m/ month.
Occupancy rates are stable from Q3 Grade B & Grade C rent: almost remain
2008 to Q3 2009 (range from 86% to q-o-q
89%)
Grade A Grade B Grade C Grade A Grade B Grade C
% U sq m m
S$/ / onth
100 40
90
30
80
20
70
10
60
50 0
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
34. (5/5) Serviced Apartment: Future supply
List of futrue projects under construction
No. Name of Project District No. of Units Est. Completion year
1 Hanoi Fraser Suites Tay Ho 10 Q4 2009
2 Crown Plaza Complex (X7 Site) Tu Liem 84 Q4 2010
3 The Landmark (Hanoi City Complex) Ba Dinh 352 Q3 2011
4 Keangnam Hanoi Landmark Tower Tu Liem 506 Q3 2011
5 Licogi 13 Thanh Xuan 60 Q4 2011
6 HD Complex Cau Giay 60 2012
7 HD Plaza Thanh Xuan Cau Giay 150 2012
8 Habico Tower Tu Liem n/a n/a
Total 1,222
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
35. (5/5) Serviced Apartment: Future supply
Units Stock New supply
• Main future supply: in 4,000
west & north west of
3,500
Ha Noi
3,000
• 2011: huge stock
expected to enter 2,500
market. 2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 Future
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
36. (5/5) Serviced Apartment rent v.s. Office rent
US$/ sq m/ month Office Serviced Apt.
45
40
35
30
25
20
Gap is narrowing
15
10
5
0
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
37. (5/5) Serviced Apartment v.s. Hotel occupancy
% Hotel Serviced Apt.
100
80
60
40
20
0
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
38. (5/5) Serviced Apartment v.s. Hotel rent
Rent of both sectors have been decreasing since Q4 2008
Hotel (LHS) Serviced Apt. (RHS)
160.0 29.0
28.5
140.0
28.0
120.0 27.5
US$/ sq m/ month
100.0 27.0
US$/ night
26.5
80.0
26.0
60.0 25.5
40.0 25.0
24.5
20.0
24.0
0.0 23.5
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
39. II. HCMC Real Estate Market Overview Q3 2009
Market sectors: •1 - Office for lease market
•2 - Retail market
•3 - Hotel market
•4 - Apartment for sale market
•5 - Serviced apartment market
Ha Noi market
40. (1/5) Office for lease: Total supply
• Total supply: 752,000 sq m, + 5%
q-o-q.
- Grade A: 6 buildings, 100,000 sq m
- Grade B: 31 buildings, 375,000 sq m
• New supply: Kumho Asiana Plaza,
39 Le Duan Boulevard - District 1,
25,700 sq m
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
41. (1/5) Office for lease: Supply by district
Total net area Market share
sq m %
• Largest supply: 500,000 100%
District 1, 440,000
sq m, 60% market
400,000 80%
share
• Smallest supply: 300,000 60%
District 5, 1,000 sq m,
0.1% market share
200,000 40%
• District 7, new
development area, 100,000 20%
53,000 sq m, 7%
market share
0 0%
Dist. 1 Tan Binh Dist. 3 Dist. 7 Phu Dist. 10 Dist. 4 Binh Dist. 5
Nhuan Thanh
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
42. (1/5) Office for lease: Supply by grade
Grade A increased 35% in supply q-o-q
Grade A Grade B
thousand sq m
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
43. (1/5) Office for lease:
Market performance Grade A and Grade B
Grade A Grade B
• The average rent: US$ 63.2/ sq m/mth, -3% •The average rent: US$30/ sq m/mth,
q-o-q. remains unchanged.
• The average occupancy: 81%, -15% q-o-q. • The average occupancy: 86%, +6% q-o-q.
Occupancy (LHS) Average Rent (RHS) Occupancy (LHS) Average Rent (RHS)
% US$/sq m/mth % US$/sq m/mth
100% 100 100% 100
90% 90 90% 90
80% 80 80% 80
70% 70 70% 70
60% 60 60% 60
50% 50 50% 50
40% 40 40% 40
30% 30 30% 30
20% 20 20% 20
10% 10 10% 10
0% 0 0% 0
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
44. (1/5) Office for lease:
Office rent, Hotel rate and Serviced Apartment rent
5-star Hotels (RHS) 4-star Hotels (RHS)
Grade A Office for lease (LHS) Grade B Office for lease (LHS)
Grade A Serviced Apartment (LHS) Grade B Serviced Apartment (LHS)
$US/sq m/month $US/room/night $US/sq m/month $US/room/night
100 200 100 200
80 160 80 160
60 120 60 120
40 80 40 80
20 40 20 40
0 0 0 0
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
45. (1/5) Office for lease: Leasing enquire index
Enquiries seems to be trending downward since July 2009.
Office leasing enquiry
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Nov-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
May-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
46. (1/5) Office for lease: Successful transaction
Demand by area Demand by purpose
Over 500 sq m 12%
From Grade B to B 40%
401 - 500 sq m 2% From Grade C to B 24%
301 - 400 sq m 7% From Grade C to C 14%
201 - 300 sq m 12% New entrants to B 9%
100 - 200 sq m 30% From Grade A to B 9%
Below 100 sq m 35% From Grade A to C 4%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
47. (1/5) Office for lease: Future supply by year
Future supply
sq m
• By 2012: over one 800,000
million sq m new office
supply.
• Office market could 600,000
double its supply in the
next 3 years.
400,000
200,000
0
Actual 2009 Actual 2010 Actual 2011 Potential 2012
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
48. (1/5) Office for lease:
Future supply by district up to 2012
• Largest future supply: District 1,
60% market share District 1
District 7
• New supply developing in
Tan Binh
surburban areas like 7, Tan
District 4
Binh and Nha Be districts.
Binh Thanh
Nha Be
District Percentage District 3
District 1 59% District 9
District 7 20%
Tan Binh 5% District 5
District 4 3% District 10
Binh Thanh 3%
Nha Be 3% Tan Phu
District 3 2%
District 9 2%
District 5 1%
District 10 1%
Tan Phu 1%
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
49. (2/5) Retail market: Total Supply
• Total supply: 452,400 sq m
– 5 department stores
– 15 shopping centres
– 6 retail podium
– 59 super markets
– 3 wholesale markets
• No new supply in Q3 2009
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
50. (2/5) Retail market: Supply by location and type
Supply by location Supply by type
Supermarkets
Suburban Shopping Centres
Secondary
CBD Department Stores
1% Wholesale Markets
11%
19% 15%
Retail Podiums
46%
31%
42%
35%
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
51. (2/5) Retail market
Market performance of shopping centre
Approx. Area Low er rent Upper rent
sq m US$/sq m/month
• Average rent: US$44 30,000 150
to US$80 per sqm.
25,000
120
• Average occupancy:
94% 20,000
90
15,000
60
10,000
30
5,000
0 0
Eden Mall
Thuan Kieu Plaza
Royal Centre
Citi Plaza
Tax Plaza
Lucky Plaza
Saigon Paragon
Saigon Centre
Master Zone
Lotte Mart
Vinatex Plaza
Alta Plaza
Saigon Superbowl
Saigon Square
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
52. (2/5) Retail market
Market performance of Department stores
• Average rent: US$38 to Approx. Area Low er rent Upper rent
US$140 per sq m. sq m US$/sq m/month
25,000 250
• Highest rent: US$220
(Diamond Plaza)
20,000 200
(comparable to mall
rents in Thailand)
15,000 150
10,000 100
5,000 50
0 0
Parkson Hung Parkson Parkson CT Diamond Plaza Zen Plaza
Vuong Saigontourist Plaza
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
53. (2/5) Retail market
Market performance of retail podium
Approx. Area Upper rent Low er rent
• Average rent: US$74 to sq m US$/sq m/month
US$105 per sq m 2,500 150
• Average occupancy:
99%. 2,000 120
1,500 90
1,000 60
500 30
0 0
The Manor Opera View New World Rex Hotel Sheraton Caravelle
Hotel Saigon Hotel
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
54. (2/5) Retail market
Future supply by year up to 2012
sq m
• Shortage retail space 500,000
anticipated in HCMC
until 2010.
400,000
• Demand expected to
grow. Undersupply
300,000
expected.
200,000
100,000
0
2010E 2011E 2012 E
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
55. (3/5) Hotel: Total supply
• (13) 5-star hotels: 4,288
rooms,
• (8) 4-star hotels: 1,280
rooms
• New supply: 5-star
Intercontinental Asiana
Saigon, Corner Hai Ba
Trung and Le Duan Street,
305 rooms.
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
56. (3/5) Hotel: Supply by district and grade
• Most 4 & 5-star 5-star 4-star 3-star
hotels are located No. of rooms
in District 1 (70%). 100%
• Follow in supply:
District 5, 3, Tan 80%
Binh and Phu
Nhuan. 60%
40%
20%
0%
District 1 District 3 District 5 Tan Binh Phu Nhuan Can Gio
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
58. (3/5) Hotel:
International visitors to Vietnam and HCMC by year
To HCMC (mil)
• To Vietnam: 2.8 million
To VN (mil)
visitors, -16% y-o-y No. of foreign visitors (million)
4.5
• To HCMC: 2 million 4.0
visitors, -12% y-o-y 3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Sep-
09
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
59. (3/5) Hotel: Future supply by year up 2012
Future supply
Up to 2012:
No. of rooms
•1,050 5-star rooms 1,900
1,700
•1,000 4-star rooms
1,500
1,300
1,100
900
700
500
300
100
2010E 2011E 2012E
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
60. (4/5) Apartment for sale: Total supply
New supply - River Park in Phu My Hung, D7
• New supply: 10 projects,
3,400 apartments
• Primary market: 34 active
projects, 5,620 apartments
• Secondary market: 91 sold
out projects, 41,500
apartments
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
61. (4/5) Apartment for sale:
Primary market by district
No. of units in active projects
Market share
• District 8: 1,200 Units %
apartments, 21% 1,400 25%
market share
1,200
20%
• District 7: 880 1,000
apartments, 16%
15%
market share 800
600
• District 2: 820 10%
apartments, 15% 400
market share 5%
200
0 0%
Tan Phu
Thu Duc
Dist. 8
Dist. 7
Dist. 2
Binh Tan
Nha Be
Binh Thanh
Tan Binh
Dist. 6
Dist. 11
Dist. 9
Dist. 4
Dist. 5
Go Vap
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
63. (4/5) Apartment for sale:
Secondary market by district
Apartments Secondary supply
13,000
Market share:
11,000
• District 7: 26% 9,000
7,000
• Binh Thanh District: 5,000
12% 3,000
1,000
• District 2: 11% Dist. 7 Binh Dist. 2 Binh Nha Be Tan Phu Dist. 4 Dist. 8 Dist. 1 Thu Duc
Thanh Chanh
Secondary supply
Apartments
1,300
1,100
900
700
500
300
Dist. 5 Binh Tan Dist. 6 Dist. 9 Go Vap Tan Binh Dist. 11 Dist. 3 Dist. 12 Phu
Nhuan
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
64. (4/5) Apartment for sale:
Primary market performance by district
Primary supply in Q3 2009
Primary supply in Q3 2009
# of units sold in Q3 2009
# of units sold in Q3 2009
Average Primary Price
Average Primary Price
Apartments US$ per sq m Apartments US$ per sq m
1,400 2,500 1,000 2,500
900
1,200
2,000 800 2,000
1,000
700
1,500 600 1,500
800
500
600
1,000 400 1,000
300
400
500 200 500
200
100
0 0 0 0
Dist. 8 Dist. 7 Dist. 2 Thu Binh Nha Be Binh Tan Dist. 6 Dist. 11 Tan Phu Go Vap Dist. 9 Dist. 4 Dist. 5
Duc Tan Thanh Binh
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
65. (4/5) Apartment for sale: Demand
• High population: due to high birth rate & large
number of migrants
• Apr 2009: HCMC population stands at 7.1
million via Population and Housing Census
conducted every 10 years.
• High income and saving recorded
• Low debt recorded
• High speed urbanization: in every direction from
the city centre.
• Banking market: more attractive mortgage plans,
up to 70% value and repayment time is up to 20
years.
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
66. (4/5) Apartment for sale:
Future supply by year up to 2012
By 2012: 46,000 # of planned units
apartments are planned # of planned projects
Apartments Projects
for launch. 25,000 40
35
20,000
30
25
15,000
20
10,000
15
10
5,000
5
0 0
2010 2011 2012
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
67. (4/5) Apartment for sale:
Future supply by district up to 2012
Future supply
• Districts 7, 9 and Market share
District 2 will be the 14,000
Apartments %
30%
main future supply
(50%). 12,000
25%
• District 9 is emerging
10,000
as one of the main 20%
suppliers in HCMC in
8,000
the mid-term. 15%
6,000
10%
4,000
5%
2,000
0 0%
Dist. 7 Dist. 9 Dist. 2 Nha Be Dist. 8 Dist. 1 Go Vap Thu Duc Binh Tan Others
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
68. (5/5) Serviced Apartment: Total supply
• Total supply: 48 serviced Kumho Asiana Plaza
apartment buildings, 2,670
units.
- Grade A: 7 buildings, 658 units
- Grade B: 11 buildings, 1,272
units
- Grade C: 30 buildings, 740 units
• New supply: Kumho Asiana
Plaza, 260 units
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
69. (5/5) Serviced Apartment: Supply by district
No. of Units
Districts 1 and 3 are
Market share
considered well- No. of units %
developed supplied 1,600 100%
for serviced 1,400
apartments (67%). 80%
1,200
1,000
60%
800
40%
600
400
20%
200
0 0%
Dist. 1 Dist. 3 Binh Thanh Dist. 2 Dist. 7 Dist. 10 Phu Nhuan Tan Binh
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
70. (5/5) Serviced Apartment: Supply by grade
Supply
Market share
Market share No. of units %
1400 60%
• Grade A: 25%
• Grade B: 48% 1200 50%
• Grade C: 28% 1000
40%
800
30%
600
20%
400
200 10%
0 0%
Grade A Grade B Grade C
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
71. (5/5) Serviced Apartment:
Market performance of Grade A and Grade B
Grade A Grade B
Rent: US$27/ sq m, -6% q-o-q Rent: US$24/ sq m, -2% q-o-q
Occupancy: 64% Occupancy: 94%
Vacancy units
Leased units Vacancy units
Average rent Leased units
Average rent
Units US$/ sqm/ month Units US$/ sq m/ month
800 40 1,400 40
35 1,200 35
600 30 1,000
30
25 25
800
400 20 20
600
15 15
400
200 10 10
200 5
5
0 0 0 0
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 09
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
72. (5/5) Serviced Apartment:
Future supply by year up to 2012
By 2012: 1,400 serviced apartments to be launched.
New Stock
No. of Units
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
73. VIET NAM ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Q3 2009
•Presented by Savills Vietnam Co., Ltd.
Oct 2009