J a n u a r y 1 2 , 2 0 1 6
The Public’s Take –
The State of the Union
PAGE 2
TABLE O F CO NTENTS
1 . A l o o k b a c k a t 2 0 1 5 … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …
2 . P e r c e p t i o n s o f E c o n o m i c C o n d i t i o n s / V i e w s o f t h e
F u t u r e … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …
3 . P e r c e p t i o n s o f O b a m a & C o n g r e s s … … … … … … … … … . .
4 . P e r c e p t i o n s o f P o l i c y I s s u e s M o v i n g F o r w a r d … … … … .
SLI DE
3
8
1 2
1 9
PAGE 3The Public’s Take: The State of the Union | January 20, 2015
Y E A R I N R E V I E W
PAGE 4
Indicator
Beginning of 2015
(January 2015)
End of 2015
(Nov/Dec 2015)
Change
Unemployment Rate 5.7% 5.0% -0.7%
Inflation Rate -0.1% 0.5% +0.6%
Stock Market (DJIA) 17,832 17,425 -407
Consumer Confidence Index 103.8 96.5 -7.3
U.S. Interest Rates .25% .50% +.25%
Gallon of gas* $2.13 $2.00 -$0.13
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Conference Board,, www.tradingeconomics.com/, AAA (FuelGaugeReport.AAA.com
THE YEAR I N REVI EW : ECO NO M I C I NDI CATO RS
*The national average price of gas in 2015 was $2.40 per gallon, which was the second cheapest annual average
of the past ten years. Only 2009 was lower during that time. This year’s annual average was about 94 cents per
gallon less than 2014.
PAGE 5
Compared with other years, do you think that 2015 was one of the best years for the United States, above average, about
average, below average, or one of the worst years for the United States?
One of the best Above average About average Below average One of the worst
1% 12% (-1) 33% 36% (+2) 18%
Source: NBC/WSJ survey / *Pew Research Center Poll / **CBS News/NYT Poll
End of 2015Beginning of 2015
THE YEAR I N REVI EW : PERCEPTI O NS O F THE ECO NO M Y
59%
70%
17% 22%
46%
53%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Country on Wrong Track Economy Will Get Worse* Economy is Bad**
End of 2015Beginning of 2015
PAGE 6
THE YEAR I N REVI EW : PERCEPTI O NS O F O BAM A
Source: NBC/WSJ survey, *CBS/NY Times Poll
46%
43%
47%
45%
37% 37%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Overall Job Approval Rating Job Approval on the Economy* Job Approval on Foreign Policy
PAGE 7
G RO W I NG SHARE CI TE TERRO RI SM AS THE M O ST
I M PO RTANT PRO BLEM FACI NG THE U. S.
Dec 2014 Dec 2015 Change
Terrorism 1% 18% +17
Economy (general) 14% 9% -5
Defense/National security 2% 8% +6
Immigration 12% 7% -5
Unemployment 10% 7% -3
ISIS/War in Iraq/War in Syria 2% 7% +5
Dissatisfaction with government, Obama 10% 6% -4
Gun control/too many guns/mass shootings 1% 5% +4
Political gridlock/division 8% 5% -3
NET: Foreign / International 9% 32% +23
NET: Terrorism / ISIS / National Security 4% 29% +25
NET: Economic issues 34% 23% -11
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, December 8-13, 2015
Most important problem facing nation …
P E R C E P T I O N S O F E C O N O M I C C O N D I T I O N S / V I E W S O F T H E
F U T U R E
PAGE 8
PAGE 9
NUM BER O F AM ERI CANS W HO VI EW CO UNTRY O N THE
W RO NG TRACK I S HI G HEST SI NCE 2012
The percentage of
Americans saying
the nation is heading
in the right direction
hasn’t topped 50% in
about a decade.
Source: HuffPost Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of January 8, 2016
RIGHT DIRECTION 25.0%
WRONG TRACK 65.3%
PAGE 10Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey, December 6-9, 2015
LI TTLE CHANG E I N EXPECTATI O N FO R THE ECO NO M Y I N
THE CO M I NG YEAR
During the next 12 months, do you think that the nation’s economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?
Same
Worse
Better
22%
38% 38%
46%
42% 41%
33%
37%
29%
29%
21%
40%
35%
45%
32%
27% 26% 27%
31%
29%
25% 24%
22%
20%
30%
22% 22% 22% 23%
15%
29%
30%
32%
23%
20%
9%
18%
24% 25%
24%
17%
21%
24% 24%
51%
37%
30% 29%
33%
36%
43%
46%
41%
39%
45%
35%
41%
34%
49% 48% 48% 48%
51%
48%
51% 50%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Oct
2006
Oct
2008
Apr
2009
June
2009
Oct
2009
Mar
2010
June
2010
Nov
2010
Feb
2011
June
2011
Oct
2011
Mar
2012
June
2012
Oct
2012
June
2013
Sept
2013
Mar
2014
June
2014
Dec
2014
Mar
2015
July
2015
Dec
2015
Note: “Don’t know/Refused” results are not shown.
PAGE 11
O PTI M I SM ABO UT THE ECO NO M Y I S FLEETI NG AS W E
START THE NEW YEAR
Would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about the U.S. economy right now?
Source: Fox News Poll, January 4-7, 2016
Optimistic
49%
Pessimistic
49%
Don’t
know
2%
Compared to
January 2015
Optimistic 58%
Pessimistic 39%
P E R C E P T I O N S O F O B A M A & C O N G R E S S
PAGE 12
PAGE 13
O BAM A’S APPRO VAL RATI NG APPEARS STEADY in t he M I D-
TO UPPER 40s
Term
52-Week High 51% Nov 13-15, 2015
52-Week Low 42% Dec 16-18, 2015
All-Time High 69% Jan 22-24, 2009
All-Time Low 38% Sep 3-5, 2014
Term Avg to Date 47% Jan 20, 2009 – Jan 5,
2016
Current Quarter Avg to Date 47% Oct 20, 2014 – Jan 5,
2016
Last Quarter Avg 46.1% Jul 20 – Oct 19, 2015
Current Year Avg to Date 46% Jan 20, 2015 – Jan 5,
2016
Last Year Avg 42.8% Jan 20, 2014 – Jan 19,
2015
47% 49%
Approve Disapprove
Barack Obama's
Current Job
Approval
Source: Gallup Poll
PAGE 14
O VERALL O BAM A’s APPRO VAL HI G HER THAN HI S
PREDECECESSO R AT START O F FI NAL YEAR I N O FFI CE
66%
63%
49%
47%
32%
Eisenhower (1960) Clinton (2000) Reagan (1988) Obama (2016) G.W. Bush (2008)
Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in January of
Final Year of 2nd
Term
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
Weekly Approval Rating
Average
January 4– 10, 2016
PAGE 15
45% 44% 43%
37% 37%
40%
47%
51%
56% 57%
Global Climate
Change
Race Relations The economy Immigration
Policy
Threat of
Terrorism
Approve Disapprove
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing on the following issues?
O BAM A PO O RLY RATED O N M O ST I SSUES
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, December 8-13, 2015
PAGE 16
SI NCE 2012, M O RE SEE O BAM A AS NO T TO UG H ENO UG H
O N FO REI G N PO LI CY
2% 2% 2%
5%
3%
5%
2%
38%
47%
41%
51%
54% 55%
58%
51%
41%
42%
37% 36% 37%
34%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jun-09 Apr-10 Sep-12 Nov-13 Aug-14 Jan-15 Dec-15
Too tough
Not tough enough
About right
Source: Pew Research Poll, December 8-13, 2015
Is Obama _________ when it comes to foreign policy and national security?
Note: “Don’t know/Refused” results are not shown.
PAGE 17
CO NG RESS ENDS 2015 W I TH 13% JO B APPRO VAL;
AVERAG ES M EAG ER 16% I N 2015
Source: Gallup Poll
BY PARTY IDENTIFICATION
DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS
17% 15%
Aggregated Gallup Polls
PAGE 18
AM ERI CANS ARE DI SSATI SFI ED O R ANG RY ABO UT THE
WAY THI NG S ARE G O I NG I N WASHI NG TO N
Which comes closest to your feelings about the way things are going in Washington – enthusiastic,
satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry?
Source: CBS News / NY Times Poll, December 4-8, 2015
31%
53%
12%
1%
Angry
Dissatisfied but not angry
Satisfied but not enthusiastic
Enthusiastic
P E R C E P T I O N S O F P O L I C Y I S S U E S M O V I N G F O R W A R D
PAGE 19
PAGE 20
PUBLI C’S I SSUE PRI O RI TI ES REFLECTS A NATI O N THAT
FEELS LESS SECURE
Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, December 6-9, 2015
Let me list some issues that have
been proposed for the federal
government to address. Please
tell me which ONE OR TWO of
these items you think should be
the top priority for the federal
government?
National security has
become the top issue
on the public’s mind
for the federal
government to
address, overtaking
jobs and the
economy.
I N O BAM A’S FI NAL YEAR, A M AJO RI TY O F AM ERI CANS
THI NK HI S PO LI CY PRO PO SALS W I LL M O VE CO UNTRY I N
W RO NG DI RECTI O N
Source: CNN/ORC Poll, January 5-6, 2016
Do you think the policies being proposed by Barack Obama will move the country in the
right direction or the wrong direction?
PAGE 21
31%
35%
46%
49%
42%
47%
54%
49%
52%
55%
67%
63%
52%
49%
55%
52%
43%
46% 45%
42%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Wrong direction
Right direction
Note: “Unsure” results are not shown.
G O P FAVO RED O N TERRO RI SM , G UN CO NTRO L;
DEM O CRATS LEAD O N CLI M ATE CHANG E
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, December 8-13, 2015
Which party could do a better job …
PAGE 22
53%
46%
40%
37%
37%
34%
30%
32%
42%
42%
43%
46%
Democratic Party Republican Party
Note: “Both equally,” “Neither,” and “Don’t know/Refused” results are not shown.
Environment
Climate change
Immigration
Economy
Gun control
Terrorist threat
D+23
D+14
R+2
R+5
R+6
R+12
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