1.
F E B R U A R Y 1 , 2 0 1 6
Election 2016 – Iowa Caucuses

2.
M O O D O F T H E C O U N T R Y / I O W A N S

3.
PAGE 3
M O S T I M P ORTAN T I S S UE S: T E R R ORIS M N O T A S I M P O RTA NT T O
I O WA R E P U BL ICA NS; H E A LTH C A R E M O R E I M P O RTANT F O R I O WA
D E M O CRAT S
Which of these is most important to you when choosing who to support for a presidential nomination?
Source: Quinnipiac, December 16-20, 2015 (National), January 25-31, 2016 (Iowa)
27%
30%
11%
8%
4%
10%
0% 0% 2% 4%
1%
34%
10%
3% 1%
10%
14%
8% 6%
2% 4% 3%
Economy
and jobs
Terrorism Immigration Federal
deficit
Health care Foreign
policy
Climate
change
Race
relations
Abortion Gun policy Taxes
27%
15%
11% 9%
5%
8%
0% 0%
5%
8%
2%
36%
4% 2% 3%
22%
6%
11%
3% 2% 3% 2%
Economy
and jobs
Terrorism Immigration Federal
deficit
Health care Foreign
policy
Climate
change
Race
relations
Abortion Gun policy Taxes
Republicans
Democrats
NationalIowa

4.
PAGE 4
AT T R IB UTES V O T ERS A R E L O O K ING F O R I N T H E I R PA R TY ’S
N O M I NE E N AT IO NALLY A N D I N I O WA
Source: Quinnipiac Poll, January 18-24, 2016
Democrats Republicans
Shares values 19% 20%
Cares about
needs/problems
28% 13%
Strong leadership 16% 29%
Honest/Trustworthy 14% 21%
Rightexperience 16% 8%
Bestchance ofwinning 6% 7%
Thinking about your party’s nominee for president in 2016, which of the following is most important to you?
Source: Quinnipiac Poll, December 16-20, 2015
NATIONALLY IOWA
Democrats Republicans
Shares values 16% 26%
Cares about
needs/problems
26% 9%
Strong leadership 13% 26%
Honest/Trustworthy 17% 24%
Rightexperience 18% 6%
Bestchance ofwinning 9% 7%

5.
PAGE 5
L I K E LY R E P U BL ICA N C A U CUS G O E RS I N I O WA T H I N K E L E C TIO N
I S M O R E A B O U T L E A DE RSHI P; L I K E LY D E M O CRATI C C A U C US
G O E R S T H I N K I T ’ S A B O UT I S S U ES
Do you think this election is more about leadership or more about issues candidates stand for?
Source: The Iowa Poll, conducted January 7-10, 2016 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co.
52%
40%
30%
57%
Leadership Issues
Republicans Democrats
Note: “Something else,” and “Not
sure” results not shown

6.
PAGE 6
N AT I ONA LLY, V O T ERS WA N T C H A N GE O V E R E X P ERI ENC E; L I K E LY
I O WA C A U C US G O E R S R E F L ECT T H I S S E N TI MENT
Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, January 9-13,2016
Thinking about the2016 presidential elections,which of the
following statementscomes closers to your point of view?
36%
61%
3%
Depends /
Not sure
Statement A:
This is a time
when it is
important to look
for a more
experienced and
tested person
even if he or she
brings fewer
changes to the
current policies.
Statement B: This
is a time when it
is important to
look for a person
who will bring
greater changes
to the current
policies even if he
or she is less
experienced and
tested.
Would you say you feel betrayed by politicians from your
political party, or not?
53%
44%
29%
68%
Yes
No
Republicans
Democrats
NATIONALLY IOWA

7.
I O W A C A U C U S

8.
PAGE 8
H O W D O E S T H E C A U CU S W O R K F O R D E MOCRATS
Source: Wall Street Journal & NPR
Only registered Democrats are eligible to participatealthoughthe party does offer same-day registration.
1,683 Democratic caucuses will be held at more than 1,000locations. They start at 8 p.m.
EST and can last an hour or more. Thereare 44 delegates to the national conventionthatcan
be won through this process. Note: Eight more unpledged party leaders and elected officials
get to go straight to the national convention from Iowa ("superdelegates”).
Here's what happens on caucus night:
1. Supporters make the case for their candidates.
2. Caucus goers separate intogroups in corners or parts of the room for their candidates of
choice.
3. When the groups are formed, theelected chair adds up how many supporters are in each
cluster. Each candidatehas to meet a viability threshold of 15 percent.
4. If a candidate is determined not to be viable,that candidate's supporters have to choose
another candidate.
5. During the re-caucusing process, supporters from the viable candidates try to sway the
nonviable candidate's voters to their side.
6. Once the re-caucusing is settled and all remaining candidates are deemed viable, the
numbers are tallied.

9.
PAGE 9
H O W D O E S T H E C A U CU S W O R K F O R R E P U BL ICAN S
Source: Wall Street Journal & NPR
Only registered Republicansare eligible to participatealthoughthe party does offer same-day registration.
GOP caucuses will be held at about 700 locations.They also start at 8 p.m. EST and
last about an hour. Thirty delegates are at stakeof the1,236 needed to be the GOP
nominee.
Here's what happens on caucus night:
1. Presidential candidate representatives speak and make their case.
2. Caucus goers pick a candidate throughpaper ballot. In past years, depending on
the size of the caucus, this could havebeendonethrough a show of hands.Unlike
Democrats, the Republicans have no15 percent threshold.
3. Votes are tallied and reported to party headquarters.

10.
R E P U B L I C A N S

11.
PAGE 11
T R U M P J U M PS A H E AD O F C R U Z A S W E
N E A R T H E F I N I SH L I N E I N I O WA ; L AT E
J U M P B Y R U B I O
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Jan, 2016
10%
8% 8%
7%
6% 6% 5% 4% 4%
7%
7% 7%
8%
9%
14%
26%
28%
24%
7% 6%
6%
6%
9%
11%
12%
12%
17%
8%
15%
20%
23% 23% 23%
26%
28%
31%
9%
11%
13%
18%
22% 22%
13%
8% 8%
June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
2016 Republican Primary Preference
Among RepublicanandRepublicanleaning voters
Bush Cruz Rubio Trump Carson
Candidate Average
Donald Trump 30.7%
Ted Cruz 23.8%
Marco Rubio 17.4%
Ben Carson 7.7%
Jeb Bush 3.9%
Rand Paul 3.9%
Mike Huckabee 3.1%
John Kasich 2.6%
Chris Christie 2.3%
Carly Fiorina 2.1%
Rick Santorum 1.2%
Jim Gilmore 0.0%
HuffPost Pollster Trend
as of February 1, 2016

12.
PAGE 12
P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS A N D P U N D ITS
Source: FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast is based on state polls, national polls, and endorsements
PredictWise prediction data are based on odds from the Betfair and PredictIt betting exchanges and markets, and aggregate polling data from HuffPost Pollster
1%
4%
29%
66%
Jeb Bush
Marco Rubio
Ted Cruz
Donald Trump
PredictWiseChance ofWinningIowa Caucuses
As ofFebruary 1st
46%
38%
14%
1%
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Ben Carson
FiveThirtyEight.comChance ofWinningIowaCaucuses
As ofFebruary 1st

13.
Source: NBC/WSJ/Marist, January 24-26, 2016 PAGE 13
I O WA N S S H O W G R E ATER I N T E NSI TY O F S U P P ORT F O R T R U MP &
C R U Z O V E R R U B I O
76%
58%
40%
18%
31%
43%
5%
11%
15%
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Strongly support Somewhat support Might vote differently
Would you say you strongly support [candidate] or somewhat support
[candidate], or do you think you might vote differently on Caucus Day?

14.
Source: Quinnipiac Poll, January 25-31, 2016 PAGE 14
M A J O RI TY O F I O WA R E P U B LIC ANS H AV E M A D E U P T H E I R M I N D S
O N A C A N D IDAT E; M O R E T H A N A T H I R D S AY T H E Y D E F I NIT ELY
D O N ’ T WA N T T R UM P
72%
81%
74%
63%
28%
18%
26%
37%
Total Trump
supporter
Cruz
supporter
Rubio
supporter
Made up Mightchange
Is your mind made up, or do you think you might
change your mind before the primary?
7%
9%
10%
12%
13%
15%
21%
35%
Carson
Rubio
Paul
Christie
Kasich
Cruz
Bush
Trump
Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not
support for the Republican nomination for president?

15.
Source: Monmouth University Poll, January 23-26, 2016 PAGE 15
M A J O RI TY O F L I K E LY C A U CUS G O E RS C O N TACTE D B Y A
C A N D ID ATE; A Q U A R TER H AV E H E A RD F R O M C R U Z C A M PA IGN
Yes
45%No
55%
Did anyone contact you personally to ask
you to caucus for a particular candidate?
9%
12%
5%
25%
8%
4%
7%
4%
9%
17%
5%
13%
IF YES: For which candidate were you asked to caucus?

16.
Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 16
FA C T ORS AT P L AY I N I O WA
1. Turnout
Pollsters have noted differences in their results when they change their assumptions about voter turnout. Trump's success in particular depends onfirst-
time voters registering and showing up to caucus.A recent MonmouthUniversity poll found that when likely Iowa caucus-goers are polled, Trump leads
Cruz 30 percent to 23 percent. However, whenthepollster narrows thesample size to registered Republicans whohavea history of voting,the odds shift
in Cruz's favor and he leads Trump 28 percent to 23 percent.
Monmouth's poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers is based on an estimate of170,000 voters coming out, whichsurpasses Iowa's 122,000 record turnout in
2012. Increasing the turnout estimateto 200,000gives Trump an 11-point lead,while decreasing it to 130,000ties the two opponents at 26percent.
2. Fickle Voters
According to a Quinnipiacpoll of likely Republican caucus-goers, 28percent of those whosupport a candidatesay theycould change their mind by
election day.
3. Momentum Shifts: Rubio
In 2012, the Republican Iowacaucuses saw a lot of last-minuteshifting in the polls. Although former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was ahead going
into the caucuses, polls did pick up on former PennsylvaniaSen. Rick Santorum’s big upswing, which ultimately led him to narrowly prevail over Romney.
No candidate is climbing at the rate Santorum was right before the 2012caucuses. Butthat doesn’t rule out thepossibility of a surprise, especially given
the projected differences in outcomebased on turnout. Onepossibility -- although it looks like a slim one -- is that Florida Sen. Marco Rubio gains
momentum or benefits from higher turnoutamong thosewho prefer an “establishment” candidateover Trump or Cruz.

17.
D E M O C R A T S

18.
PAGE 18
C L I N TON ’S L E A D O V E R S A N DER S C O N TI NUES T O S H R I NK I N
I O WA
Candidate Average
Hillary Clinton 47.7%
Bernie Sanders 44.6%
Martin O’Malley 3.7%
HuffPost Pollster Trend
as of February 1st
, 2016
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Jan, 2016
18%
21%
27% 29% 32% 34%
37%
42%
45%
56% 54%
50% 48% 48% 51% 51%
48% 48%
June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
2016 Democratic Primary Preference
Among registered/leaned Democrats
Sanders Clinton

19.
PAGE 19
P R E D IC TIO N M A R KE TS A N D P U N D ITS
27%
73%
Bernie
Sanders
Hillary
Clinton
PredictWise Chance of Winning Iowa Caucuses
As of February 1st
34%
66%
Bernie
Sanders
Hillary
Clinton
FiveThirtyEight.com Chance of Winning Iowa Caucuses
As of February 1st
Source: FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast is based on state polls, national polls, and endorsements
PredictWise prediction data are based on odds from the Betfair and PredictIt betting exchanges and markets, and aggregate polling data from HuffPost Pollster

20.
PAGE 20
M A J O RI TY O F D E M O C RATS I N I O WA H AV E T H E IR M I N D M A D E U P ;
I N T E NS ITY O F S U P P ORT I S S T R O NG F O R B O T H C A N DI DATE S
85% 84% 87%
14% 15% 12%
Total Clinton
supporter
Sanders
supporter
Made up Mightchange
Is your mind made up, or do you think you might
change your mind before the primary?
Source: Quinnipiac Poll, January 25-31, 2016
79%
76%
15%
15%
4%
7%
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Strongly support Somewhatsupport Mightvote differently
Would you say you strongly support [candidate] or somewhat support
[candidate], or do you think you might vote differently on Caucus Day?
Source: NBC/WSJ/Marist, January 24-26, 2016

21.
Source: Monmouth University Poll, January 23-26, 2016 PAGE 21
M A J O RI TY O F L I K E LY C A U CUS G O E RS C O N TACTE D B Y A
C A N D ID ATE; N E A RLY H A L F H AV E H E A R D F R O M C L I N TON
Yes
62%
No
37%
Did anyone contact you personally to ask
you to caucus for a particular candidate?
49%
15%
38%
Clinton O'Malley Sanders
IF YES: For which candidate were you asked to caucus?

22.
Source: HuffPost Pollster.com PAGE 22
FA C T ORS AT P L AY I N I O WA
1. Turnout
Sanders’ success relies heavily on young and first-time voters showing up to caucus. Polls haveconsistently found his support sky-high among younger
voters and Clinton’s stronger among older voters.
People under the age of 29 havemade up 9-17 percentof Iowa caucus-goers in the last five presidential elections. With theexceptionof 2008,which
saw a record number of young voters, on averageonly 3-4 percent of eligible caucus-goers under 29 show up to voteon election day. If Sanders
motivates this group to turn out, hecould upset Clinton.
2. Fickle Voters
A recent Quinnipiacpoll of likely Democratic caucus-goers shows 1 in 7 voters who support a candidate say there's a chance they could changetheir
mind by the time they cast their vote. The formatof the caucus provides opportunities for voters to changetheir minds, so thosewaffling ontheir choice
could be convinced to changecandidates.
3. Momentum Shifts: O’Malley
According to the HuffPost pollster average,O'Malley reels in only 4 percent of Democrats, well below the15 percent threshold for a candidate tobe
considered viable. In most caucus locations, O’Malley supporters will be forced to chooseanother candidate. There’s noreal guidance in thepolls on
what O’Malley’s supporters will do, though, sincethereare so few of them. It's hard to say who those 4 percentwill support on caucus day, and with a
race this tight, which way they swing could affect theoutcome.

23.
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