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Energy : Geopolitics - Geostrategy - Geoeconomy, Lesson learned from Russia - Europe

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Energy : Geopolitics - Geostrategy - Geoeconomy, Lesson learned from Russia - Europe

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This presentation describes how in terms of geoeconomics, capitalizing the political and economy geography can be utilize as a bargain position to pursue geopolitical objectives

This presentation describes how in terms of geoeconomics, capitalizing the political and economy geography can be utilize as a bargain position to pursue geopolitical objectives

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Energy : Geopolitics - Geostrategy - Geoeconomy, Lesson learned from Russia - Europe

  1. 1. Energy Policy Management in National Border Area Geostrategy – Geoeconomy and National Security Concerns Sampe L. Purba March 2022
  2. 2. Agenda •Contemporary International Geopolitics – Geoeconomy Issues •Indonesia Upstream National Border Geopolitics - Geostrategy – Geoeconomy •National Objectives – NATIONAL INTEREST - THREAT AND DETERRENCE Mar-22 @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  3. 3. Broad Terms • Geopolitics: Application of the influence of political and economy geography international relations [economy, politics, foreign policy, power, etc] • Geostrategy : A decisive points with spatial consideration, by taking into account the driving forces of demography, culture, technology, resources and its mobility to meet national objectives • Geoeconomics : Capitalizing Economy to pursue geopolitical objectives  Instruments : Trade policy, investment policy, Financial and monetary, energy and commodities, aid and cyber Mar-22 @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  4. 4. Primary Energy World Pattern Consumption Mar-22 Fossil Based Energy to dominate, everywhere @bp Statistical Review, 2021 @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  5. 5. Gas Balance to Europe Number is Power  541 BCM gas consumed (2020)  57 % is imported [pipeline and LNG] 20% of import is LNG Russia plays a dominant roles in supplying and transporting gas https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1043321/Diversity_and_security_of_gas_supply_in_Europe__2020_.pdf Mar-22 @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  6. 6. European Energy Balance – Russia is everywhere https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1043321/Diversity_and_security_of_ gas_supply_in_Europe__2020_.pdf European Source of LNG Gas Supply to Europe Mar-22 @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  7. 7. Map of Oil and Gas Pipelines from Russia • Russia well diversified its gas pipeline route : Ukraina : 146 bcm/y Blue stream: 16 bcm/y Nord stream 1: 55 bcm/y Nord stream 2 : 55 bcm/y Turk stream : 31.5 bcm/y Yamal Europe :33 bcm/y  Point to note 2021  to Europe 177 bcm, but ONLY 42 bcm via Ukraina Map : U.S. Energy Information Administration @ FGE analysis Si vis pacem, para bellum Mar-22 @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  8. 8. Russia is everywhere – Even Link to PRC http://www.gazpromexport.ru/en/projects /transportation/ Mar-22 @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  9. 9. Energy : Politics – Diplomacy - Military When National Interest at stake Contemporary Issues Infografis@Kompas, 18 Februari 2022 NUMBER IS POWER http://www.gasprocessingnews.com/features/201906/the-insoluble-equation- how-to-balance-europe%E2%80%99s-natural-gas-supply-and-demand.aspx Mar-22 @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  10. 10. Agenda •Contemporary International Geopolitics – Geo economy Issues •Indonesia Upstream National Border Geopolitics - Geostrategy – Geoeconomy •National Objectives – NATIONAL INTEREST - THREAT AND DETERRENCE Mar-22 @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  11. 11. • Indonesia Oil and Gas Map Working Area • Some lay in between territorial sea – up to continental shelf • UNCLOS set different rules • Operational and Legal Enforcement matters https://geoportal.esdm.go.id/migas/ Mar-22 @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  12. 12. Upstream Working Areas in Continental Border Areas • Out of 190’s, there are 25 in border areas  Resources estimated 17,819 MMBOE  Each Border States facing specific issues Mar-22 @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  13. 13. Mar-22 Working areas : territorial zone – Continental Shelf Border agreements Institutional Crossing zone domains Oil and Gas Andaman Sea, ACEH 1 Recoverable Resources Andaman – Malacca Strait, 1 EPT +3 EKS P50 : 224 MMBO + 9.176 BCSF @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  14. 14. Geostrategy Andaman Sea - Aceh • Sea Lines of Communication • Choke Points Malacca Strait • BRI RRC vs Indo Pacific [QUAD] • Indonesia Border with India, Malaysia, Thailand • Petroleum Resources in Andaman Sea • LNG Regassification terminal Arun, Storage Bulk, LNG Hub • A strategic Sabang Port adjacent to Andaman - Nicobar • Historical Dynamics of Aceh within the Republic of Indonesia Mar-22 @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  15. 15. Upstream in North Natuna Sea • Technical and Commercial Issues  High CO2 and sulphur  Monetization Issues - Existing domestics pipeline system - Creation of new surrounding demands - Connection to overseas pipeline system  Defence and Security Issues 2 Mar-22 Recoverable Resources, 5 EPT, 3 EKS P50 : 1.274 MMBO + 10.918 BSCF @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  16. 16. Geopolitics in South China Sea • BRI vs Indo Pacific • FONOP [Freedom of Navigation Operation] • QUAD [India, Japan, US, Australia] • AUKUS [US,UK, Australia] Mar-22 @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  17. 17. Game of Throne : BRI vs INDOPACIFIC Mar-22 US Global Fleet to patrol the globe  The ancient sleeping Giant to wake up glorifying its old historical domination in the globe  Perceived as DIRECT challenge to the NEW ORDER Establishment Post WW II  Indonesia aware of Spill over effect, multipolar power effect  Also needs Agility by taking into account its bargain position [VUCA concept] How Chinese Leaders Think – Book Review Sampe Purba https://www.academia.edu/s/a6de1663aa?source=work @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  18. 18. North and East offshore Kalimantan Upstream Discovery in Indonesia Border zone Overlap zone with Malaysia around Ambalat Sea Lesson learned from Sipadan – Ligitan case (ICJ, 2002) - Effective Occupation - Chain of Title - Status quo No precedent on UNCLOS settlement delimitation between Coastal State vs Archipelagic state 3 Mar-22 Recoverable Resources, 2 EPT, 3 EKS, 1 PT P50 : 465 MMBO + 2337 BSCF @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  19. 19. Kalimantan Geopolitical – Geostrategy – Geoeconomy issues  IKN [ New Capital State Plan]  New Center of Gravity  Islands with 3 States  UNCLOS 1982 on int’l passage rights : - right of archipelagic sea lines passage (GR 37,2002) - Right of Innocent Passage - Right of Transit Passage  FPDA [Five Power Defense Arragements -> Australia, UK, NZ, Malaysia, Singapore  BRI vs Indo Pacific Mar-22 @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  20. 20. Upstream Papua National Border  Basin Continuity in Indonesia Papua Border to Papua New Guinea  Preservation Forest issues in Indonesia Side  Remoteness of Area 4 Earth Sciences, University of Papua New Guinea,by Hugh L. Davies Mar-22 Recoverable Resources, 1 EKS P50 : 3.297 BSCF @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  21. 21. Melanesian and Pacific Countries in UN GA not in favor of Indonesia  PRC BRI expanded strategic plans to South Pacific Countries US historical and continuing strategic military base in Pacific Regions The US – Japan Security Treaty Pacific Geopolitical Issues https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/n- america/us/security/guideline2.html Mar-22 @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  22. 22. Tanimbar Sea and Southern Parts of Indonesia National Border • Abadi – Masela Field Development Plans • Gas Potential in Timor Leste and Australian Border Side • Maritime zone need to agreed upon 5 Mar-22 Recoverable Resources, 1 EPT, 3 EKS, 1 PT P50 : 361 MMBO + 49.452 BSCF @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  23. 23. Southern Parts Geostrategy – Geoeconomy Issues • A traditional asylum and refugees irregular transit to Australia • Australia Defence White Paper Tones  Strategic common prosperity with reasonable cautiousness • US Marine Air Ground Force Task Force in Darwin  as part of ANZUS • Coal and LNG from Australia competes International market with those of Indonesia • Ichthys – Bayu Undan – Prelude LNG. LNG Processing Facilities, already in operate in nearer border such as Darwin, Australia http://www.pm.gov.au/press-office/australia-united-states- force-posture-initiatives https://www.inpex.com.au/projects/ichthys-lng/ Mar-22 @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  24. 24. Agenda •Contemporary International Geopolitics – Geo economy Issues •Indonesia Upstream National Border Geopolitics - Geostrategy – Geoeconomy •National Objectives – NATIONAL INTEREST - THREAT AND DETERRENCE Mar-22 @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  25. 25. NATURE ACTOR THREAT FORM MILITARY POTENTAL ACTUAL NON MILITARY WEAPONRY NON WEAPONRY MANNER NATIONAL REGIONAL INTERNATONAL INTERNAL EXTERNAL STATE NON STATE SOURCE IMPACT TO LIFE MATTER IPOLEKSOSBUDHANKAM Defense Policy : INDONESIA Threat vs Deterrence @ Purnomo Yusgiantoro, 2019 Mar-22 @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  26. 26. DEFENSE AREAS  PEACE development and improvement defense capabilities as manifestation of national deterrence  WAR  defense area as war zone Upstream working areas  Lands, Waters and Continental Shelf  National Strategic Assets Administration areas  Regional Autonomy and Govt Reps  Spatial Management Mar-22 DEFENSE – UPSTREAM - ADMINISTRATION @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  27. 27. General Policy on State Defense • JAKUMHANNEG – Perpres 8/2021 • Four Strategic Products Strategy [In depth, Main islands, continuous] doctrine [sishankamrata] Whitepaper -> Power Projection and balancing Posture [weaponry, servicemen, base and placing] Mar-22  VUCA @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  28. 28. Concluding Remarks Energy is a significant element in shaping international relations Natural Resources Policy Management should be designed and projected on broader and long term goals Management of Oil and Gas in Border Areas is an integral part of National Interest – National Objectives to promote people welfare and maintain the integrity of our nation Mar-22 Sampe L. Purba Doktor Ilmu Pertahanan Kementerian ESDM sampepurba@gmail.com @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  29. 29. Sampe Purba – Short Bio Mar-22 Sampe L. Purba is Senior Advisor to Minister of EMR Indonesia on Economy of Natural Resources. His main role is to provide strategic advisory on the policy formulation and management of natural resources, discuss and help solve issues across the concerned stakeholders and functions. He is also Chair of Committee Audit in Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. He has been experiencing 30 years assignment with private, semi and government institution in several technical and managerial positions mainly related to commercial, finance, legal and audit of oil and gas business management. He holds bachelor and master degrees in Economics, Accounting, Finance and Law, from some domestic universities and The University of New South Wales, Australia. He holds a Management Defense Science Doctoral degree from Indonesia Defense University, concentrating in Energy Policy and Geostrategy. Mr. Purba is a member of professional organization, such as IAI, IPA, AIPN, PERADI. In international organization, he serves as Board member of EITI representing Indonesia as implementing country and South East Asia region. Recently he is also appointed by the Office of Australia Prime Minister as one of Panel Experts in Indo-Pacific Clean Energy Supply Chain Forum. @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  30. 30. Grand Strategi Energi Nasional Mar-22 @ Dewan Energi Nasional, 2021 @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  31. 31. Russia is everywhere Mar-22 BACK UP @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  32. 32. Energy : Politics – Military - Diplomacy Crude Oil movement is highly sensitive to NON FUNDAMENTAL ISSUES Carl von Clausewitz : War is the continuation of policy by other means Geopolitics – Geostrategy – Geoeconomy Mar-22 @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  33. 33. Mar-22 UNCLOS 1982 @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  34. 34. M I L I TA R Y Policy of National Defense System NATIONAL ECONOMY PENGARUH ANCAMAN & INDUSTRI TERHADAP EKONOMI NASIONAL NATIONAL INDUSTRY KONTRIBUSI INDUSTRI PERTAHANAN THD EKONOMI NASIONAL DEFENSE INDUSTRY KEMANPUAN INDUSTRI PERTAHANAN DLM MENDUKUNG KOMPUT THREAT NILAI ANCAMAN DIHADAPKAN PADA KEMAMPUAN MENGHADAPI ANCAMAN THE CAPABILITY TO FACE THE THREAT POSTUR PERTAHANAN TERUTAMA DI DAERAH YG BERPOTENSI KONFLIK. DEFENSE RESOURCES SUMBER DAYA YG BISA DIGUNAKAN UTK MENDUKUNG KOMPONEN PERTAHANAN NEGARA DYNAMICS OF POLICY VARIABLES INTER RELATION Purnomo Yusgiantoro- DEFENSE ECONOMY
  35. 35. Mar-22 BAGAN STRATIFIKASI DOKTRIN TNI @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  36. 36. DAERAH PERTEMPURAN DAERAH KOMUNIKASI DAERAH BELAKANG DAERAH PANGKAL PERLAWANAN MANDALA PERTAHANAN LUAR (LAPIS 1) ZEE (200 Mil) LAUT TERITORIAL (12Mil) N K R I MEDAN PERLAWANAN MANDALA PERTAHANAN Wilhan Dinamis (Negara dalam keadaan perang) MANDALA PERTAHANAN UTAMA (LAPIS 2 - INTI) MANDALA PERTAHANAN DALAM (LAPIS 3 - INTI) Penyiapan wilayah negara sebagai mandala pertahanan dg gugusan kepulauan Indonesia sbg titik kuat pada pulau-pulau besar dihadapkan pada perkiraan strategis tentang kemungkinan ancaman pada tiga lapis mandala pertahanan Idealnya menjadi acuan Bangnas Dr. MayJen M. Nakir, 2020 Mar-22 @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  37. 37. Mar-22 @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe
  38. 38. POSTUR PERTAHANAN MILITER Mar-22 DisJaktra @Dr. Sampe L. Purba, Energy: Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomy - Lesson learn from Russia - Europe

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