The Saudi Riyal, is my assignment for ECO209: Intermediate Macroeconomics II. It talks about the currency exchange rate. Course Instructor: Dr. Farzana Munshi

1. The Saudi Riyal
ECO209 Instructor: Dr. Farzana Munshi
Samiya Yesmin 11304043

2. The Saudi Riyal
February 13, 2015
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Figure 1: Saudi Arabia Riyal against Saudi Crude Oil Production. (Source: http://www.tradingeconomics.com)
Figure 2: Nominal Exchange Rate of SAR against USD. (Source: http://www.tradingeconomics.com)
Figure 3: Saudi Balance of Payments. (Source: http://www.tradingeconomics.com)
Figure 4: Crude Oil Price (Source: http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil.aspx?timeframe=10y)

3. The Saudi Riyal
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An Economic Overview of the Saudi Riyal:
Saudi Arabia is an oil-based economy with almost 20% of the world’s total crude oil reserves. It
ranks as the world’s largest petroleum producer as well as exporter. Crude Oil production attributed to
52% of Saudi’s GDP. Hence I have noted the implication of international trade, oil industry and the
Saudi Riyal in my position paper “The Saudi Riyal”.
The valuation of Saudi Arabian Riyal (SAR) has a direct relationship with its crude oil
production. As seen in Figure 1, we see that fluctuations in SAR follow its crude oil production trend. In
2008-2010 we see major fluctuations in oil production and the riyal’s nominal rate because of strong
demand but declining world production, talks of running out of fossil fuels caused a major scare
(Hamilton, 2009). In 2003, Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA) officially announced the pegging
of Saudi Arabian Riyals (SAR) to United States Dollars (USD) at 1 SAR=3.7 USD Figure 2. “Currency
pegs allow importers and exporters to know exactly what kind of exchange rate they can expect for their
transactions, simplifying trade. This in turn helps to curb inflation and temper interest rates, thus
allowing for increased trade” (Currencyfair.com, 2015). Thereby KSA follows the same monetary
policies of USA. Currency pegging came about to ensure international trade stabilization. Hence when
comparing the nominal exchange rates of the two currencies, we do not see much of a change. Although
as heavily vested oil based economy, Saudi Arabian currency does show some fluctuations in par with
its oil industry output.
With the start of USA shale oil production there has been unprecedented increase in oil supply,
over 80% from its 2007 production, which has turned the once major importer of oil to become its
exporter. And due to this new oil extraction technique, Fracking, and increasing alternative methods of
energy, the world now has an increase oil supply and a falling oil demand, which has led to lower
exports from KSA since mid 2012 Figure 3. All of which has resulted in a sharp fall in oil prices (about
50%) in 2014, from $110/barrel to $52/barrel) Figure 4. The price of oil depends on 3 factors, supply
and demand, market expectations and international relations with OPEC (Cunningham, 2015). This has
lead to some pretty major fluctuations in oil prices that have shaped our world. In the 70s, we had the
“First Oil Shock” due to the war and the political situation; embargos were placed on petroleum trade by
OAPEC, which lead to stock crash, inflation and eventually a recession. Since the Oil shocks, some
nations have come up with strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) for economic and national security
during future energy crisis.
This has become a major concern for all oil based economies. Most are hoping to come to a
consensus to decrease oil production which in turn would increase the price as supply falls. But the
Saudi government has no such intentions and continues production at the same rate as before. The
reason behind which is said “to try to instill some discipline among fellow OPEC oil producers, and
perhaps to put the US's burgeoning shale oil and gas industry under pressure”. This decision has now

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become a major concern for other oil producing countries that are not breaking-even at the current
market price and might be forced out of production, such as Russia and Venezuela, soon if this trend
continues. The implication of a monopoly market is very uncertain. And the future of both the Saudi
Riyal and Oil Price are entering some turbulent times.
Works Cited
1. Cunningham, N. (2015, Jan. 04). investopedia. Retrieved from Determining oil prices:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/determining-oil-prices.asp
2. Currencyfair.com. (2015, Jan. 21). Retrieved from https://www.currencyfair.com/blog/pegged-
currency-affect-exchange-rates/
3. Hamilton, J. D. (2009). Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08. University of
California, San Diego. San Diego: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2009.
Table of Figures
Figure 1: Saudi Arabia Riyal against Saudi Crude Oil Production............................................... 2
Figure 2: Nominal Exchange Rate of SAR against USD................................................................ 2
Figure 3: Saudi Balance of Payments. ........................................................................................... 2
Figure 4: Crude Oil Price............................................................................................................... 2