2. The yen should now be trading for between 78
and 85 yen to the dollar.
The current situation can be considered an
"adjustment" of the yen that had been weaker
than its theoretically appropriate level.
3. The short-term interest rate is already close to
zero and the long-term interest rate has not yet
approached that level. So there is still room for
the BOJ to apply pressure to lower the long-term
interest rate by expanding its supply of funds.
4. However, both the government and the BOJ
have few options available. They should hold on
to measures that may become necessary if the
yen appreciates further or if the economic
slowdown becomes more severe.
A BOJ study has found that large manufacturers
have forecast an exchange rate of 90 yen to the
dollar for the second half of this fiscal year.
5. A BOJ study has found that large manufacturers
have forecast an exchange rate of 90 yen to the
dollar for the second half of this fiscal year.
So author has opinion that It is understandable
that the BOJ would want to take steps if
exporting companies were suffering.
6. The credit crunch and fears about failures in the
financial sector have caused private investors
and even many governments to put their trust in
US Treasury Bills, thus boosting the value of the
greenback.
7. Japan has accumulated large volumes of foreign
currency. Because its usual trade surplus.
And that money has been re-invested back in the
United States and elsewhere.
8. First, Japan did not suffer large losses from the
sub prime crisis, leaving Japanese banks in
relatively good shape.
Second, Japanese investors are deleveraging
their overseas investments, creating large cash
inflows into Japan.
Third, the yen is now seen as a "safe haven"
currency.
9. Result of all I think that yen is temporary safe
position. And it is important Japan is not have the
force of financial.
Because the downside of the yen's strength is
that it is hurting Japanese exports. So it is not
strange that yen come to be weak.