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Online08 stm market-outlook-vcamlek finalv1 (2)

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Focus on views pertaining to the potential developments in STM publishing for 2009. Delivered during the uncertain economic period in 2008.

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Online08 stm market-outlook-vcamlek finalv1 (2)

  1. 1. STM Industry Outlook: 2009 and BeyondVictor CamlekVice President, Market IntelligenceThomson Reuters, ScientificPresentation Delivered at London Online: December 2008
  2. 2. Purpose of This Talk• Discuss Key STM Trends for 2009: – Open Access/alternative business models – Content vendors providing added value and customization in support of researcher workflow – Increasing impact of social networking and collaboration as an integral part of the research process – Exciting opportunities to deliver services and manage operations in the Asia Pacific Region Perhaps the most significant challenge will be the status of the global economy and the prevailing assumption that STM is among the most resilient markets. Among the key indicators: • R&D spending trends • Corporate, Medical and Academic information budgets • Subscription renewals • Student enrollment trends, etc. 2
  3. 3. Purpose of This Talk: Takeaways• Key takeaways: – Why these emerging trends are important? – Examples of workflow solutions from industry participants – Examples of the way social networking is becoming a mainstream component of scientific research – An objective view of the STM Information Industry outlook 3
  4. 4. Agenda• Core Trends – Business Model Evolution – Adding Value To Support Researcher Workflow – Social Networking & Collaboration – Shifting Global Economic Strength• The Economy• Conclusion 4
  5. 5. Major Issue 1:Business Model Evolution• Business models are evolving across all publishing sectors – Advertising models – Subscription models co-existing with sponsorship and transactions-based models – Some content given away freely to attract eyeballs to fee- based content and services – Licensing of e-portions of larger works – Rise of eBooks aided by new technology – Open Access is the big story in STM 5
  6. 6. Publishers will “experience pressure to un-bundle theirservices, and will be challenged to provide new productsand business models, based around diverse sets ofniche services operated across scholarly and scientificactivity.”Outsell, “Market Size, Share & Forecast Report - Scientific, Technical &Medical Information: 2007,” Oct. 17, 2008 6
  7. 7. Brief Examples of Alternate Business Models• Advertising model – Huge in consumer/B2B markets; STM example: Nature.com• Sponsorship model – E.g. Elsevier’s OncologySTAT® ad- and sponsorship-based• Transactions-based model – Ei’s Engineering Village™ “Day Pass”: 24 hours of unlimited Compendex® database searches for $49.95• Pay-for-a-portion/Custom sales – E.g. Buy a single chapter of an eBook on SpringerLink• Free content: – E.g. NYTimes.com and FT.com. Since Oct. 2007, FT.com has allowed users to view 30 articles/month free in hopes of tempting them into subscribing once they use up free views Source: The Independent, Oct. 2, 2007 www.nytimes.com/2007/09/10/business/media/10journal.html? 7 _r=1&ref=business&pagewanted=print&oref=slogin
  8. 8. Impact of Open Access• OA: Ramping Up! – “Traditional” publishers offering an OA option • Recent ALPSP survey found the % of publishers offering OA options grew from 9% in 2005 to 30% in 2008 • However, the survey reported: the take-up of the author- pays OA option is “exceedingly low” – Over 3,700 free, full text, quality controlled scientific and scholarly journals listed in DOAJ (Directory of OA Journals)• Recent major developments: – Springer acquired BioMed Central in October • Springer view: OA is “a sustainable part of STM publishing, and not an ideological crusade” – OASPA (OA Scholarly Publishers Assoc.) launched in Oct. • Association for both non-profit and for-profit publishers • Mission: to support and represent the interests of global OA journal publishers Source: www.doaj.org; OASPA press release, Oct 14, 08; Springer press release, Oct 7, 08; 8 Association of Learned & Professional Society Publishers press release, Oct 13, ’08
  9. 9. Recent Major OA Developments, continued:• Harvard Faculty of Arts & Sciences (FAS) OA mandate – FAS voted to grant Harvard “nonexclusive rights” to make its scholarly journal articles freely accessible via the university’s institutional repository• Funding organization mandates – U.S. NIH (National Institutes of Health): mandates submission into PubMed of peer-reviewed articles that result from NIH-funded research (~80,000 articles annually) – EU Pilot project: In Aug 2008, European Commission launched a pilot project to run until 2013 for unrestricted online access to EU- funded research results, after a 6 – 12 month embargo• Some publishers offer services to help authors comply – Nature introduced Manuscript Deposition Service in July to deposit manuscripts in repositories on the authors’ behalf – Oxford Journals, a division of OUP, and Taylor & Francis announced similar services Source: http://eprints.rclis.org/archive/00014755/01/ELIS_OTDCF_v24no3.pdf; EC press release, 9 Aug 20. ‘08; NPG pr. Rel., Jul 31, 08; KnowledgeSpeak.com, Aug 5 ;T&F pr. Rel., Aug 08
  10. 10. OA Potential Scenarios: Potential Impact• Journals model threatened• Publishers compete with the Institution• Rise of the IR Publisher In 2003 BNP Paribas performed quantitative analysis on the impact of OA on Journal Publishers: “This analysis shows that, based on a 50% probability of a shift towards an open access model after ten years, our assumptions suggest enterprise values about 20% below those under the current subscriptions model.” BNP Paribas, 2003 Source: BNP Paribas, Professional Publishers, Oct 2003 10
  11. 11. Major Issue 2: Publishers Will Compete toSupport Researcher Workflow• Offerings likely to morph from simply providing content online to providing content-based solutions• Vendors incorporating new technology to help researchers: – Save time in both research and analysis – Move beyond finding information to discovering knowledge – Add semantic search capabilities• Solutions may be achieved by developing technology in-house or partnering with a tech firm – The trend looks to be more towards partnering, as this is often the less risky and/or less costly route and can also result in getting new products to market more quickly 11
  12. 12. Adding Value to Support Workflow: Examples• Recent new solutions – llumin8 from Elsevier & NetBase • Web-based tool that combines Elsevier content with NetBase’s semantic indexing technology to provide “actionable knowledge, in formats that fit” into the R&D professional’s workflow – “Thomson Collexis Dashboard” from TR Scientific & Collexis • Combines TR Scientific Web of Science® data with Collexis Dashboard technology to provide researchers with deep analysis, trending, and visualization to aid discovery Source: Elsevier press release, Feb 25, 08; Thomson Scientific press release Feb 21, ’08 12
  13. 13. Adding Value to Support Workflow: Examples,continued• Emerging technology influencers – Semantic Search: DeepDyve (formerly Infovell), Cuil, Collexis, NetBase – Predictive Data: can offer customized knowledge-based retrieval • E.g. Health Monitoring Systems, a “community health surveillance” company, maintains online networks collecting real-time hospital/healthcare provider data, and offers analytics to pinpoint and understand current and emerging health issues – In addition • TEMIS: offers text mining and analytics(Luxid®) to help publishers annotate text and tag/build precision-based content repositories (Customers: Thomson Reuters, Elsevier, and Springer) • Thomson Reuters’ Open CALAIS: although not STM-focused, the freely available Calais Web Service allows publishers to create semantic metadata for submitted content; Calais analyzes documents and finds the “entities” within Source: Elsevier press release, Feb 25, 08 13
  14. 14. Major Issue 3:Social Networking & Collaboration within STM• Initially slower to catch on than in the consumer space, but there are a plethora of new STM offerings – Information Today, September 2008: there is “greatly increased activity,” with “new initiatives popping up in a number of arenas” – New entrants and traditional players alike are on board• Elsevier 2Collab survey from June 2008 – Surveyed over 1,800 STM researchers/info pros in academia and government • Over 50% of respondents see social applications “playing a key role in shaping the future of research” • Will influence: analysis & evaluation of data, networking & collaboration, dissemination of output, career development, and grant application & funding Source: Hane, PJ, http://newsbreaks.infotoday.com/nbReader.asp?ArticleId=50584 , Sep 4, ’08; 14 Elsevier press release, Jun 9, 08
  15. 15. Using Social Media for Work• Elsevier 2Collab survey revealed scientists use blogs, wikis, social networking and bookmarking applications “primarily for professional reasons” Source: Elsevier press release, Jun 9, 08; Emery, B., Elsevier’s “STM social media survey” 15
  16. 16. Impact of Social Networking Tools inAcademic Libraries• Over half of the info pros in a TR survey feel that social networking has had some impact on users’ daily activities How much influence have social networking sites had on users daily 12% 41% 36% 11% activities? n = 468 A lot Some Not very much None• According to the info pros, 48% stated that they had implemented ways to use social networking tools or principles, including wikis, blogs, chat technology, RSS, Flickr® and podcasts Have you or any of your colleagues implemented creative ways to use 16% 32% 51% social networking? n = 252 Yes Sort of No Source: Scientific, Thomson Reuters, Market Research, 2008 16
  17. 17. Social Networking & Collaboration: Examples• Nature Network – Connects scientists globally and locally; for personal homepages, networking, discussions, tagging – Outsell calls it STM’s “poster child for online community”• Elsevier: 2Collab – Scientific bookmarking/sharing site for research collaboration• Collexis’ BiomedExperts – Pre-populated biomed expert profiles and social networking• CiteULike – Sponsored by Springer; users can organize references to scholarly papers and share with others• ACS Member Network – When ACS announced the launch of the network for its society members and student affiliates, it already had 11,000 pre-enrolled members Source: Outsell, “STM Information: 2007 Market Forecast and Trends Report,” Sep 07; 17 Chemical & Engineering News, v. 86, n. 33, Aug 18
  18. 18. Major Issue 4:Shifting Global Economic Strength• Shifting economic power – “The world is moving from an era of geographically concentrated economic power to one characterized by multiple centers of economic and business activity.” – “The contours of the global economy are changing. The collective economic dominance of the United States, Europe and Japan—the so-called triad economies—is giving way to a greater dispersal of global economic power as developing economies contribute an ever-increasing share of the world’s output, trade and investment.” Accenture, The Rise of the Multi-Polar World Source: Accenture, “The Rise of the Multi-Polar World,” 2007 18
  19. 19. GDP: Largest Economies 2006 vs. 20502006 15,000 GDP(US$Bn) 10,000 5,000 ••Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs projects that by projects that by 2050, China will 2050, China will 0 be the world’s be the world’s a a a ce n y y S K ia d pa al di in an il U U an largest economy na az ss It In h Ja largest economy m2050e Ru Fr Br C Ca er 80,000 by far and India G(US$Bn) by far and India 60,000 will vie for the #2 will vie for the #2 slot, just behind slot, just behind 40,000 the US the US 20,000 0 a a da e y n a y l US K i i di nc al an in pa az ss U na In It Ch a Ru m Ja Br Ca Fr er G Source: Charts created from data in Goldman Sachs, BRICs and Beyond, 2007 19
  20. 20. Chinese Science & Engineering Doctorates• •China is expected China is expected to continue its to continue its dramatic growth dramatic growth• •IfIfgrowth rates growth rates continue in line continue in line with available with available data, China will data, China will surpass the US in surpass the US in 2009 2009 Source: NSF: “Science & Engineering Indicators 2008,” Appendix Tables 2-32 and 2-40, as seen 20 online at: www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/c2/c2s5.htm#c2s54 and MI estimates
  21. 21. Number of Papers: 1981 vs. 2007 • Chart shows number of papers indexed by Thomson Reuters in 1981 versus 2007 that listed at least one author address for each country below 400K 2007 1981 “China ranked #2 by “China ranked #2 by 300K number of papers number of papers published during published duringNo. of Papers 2007, second only 2007, second only 200K to the United States” to the United States” ––Thomson Reuter’s Thomson Reuter’s ScienceWatch, July ’08 ScienceWatch, July ’08 100K 0 n n K S Br a a Ja a a Ta ea y C h il az in an pa G wa li di si U U ra or us In m i st .K R er Au So Source: Thomson Reuters Scientific Research Services Group National Science Indicators, 2007 21 (Note: 1981 is earliest year data is available); http://sciencewatch.com/ana/fea/08julaugFea/
  22. 22. Agenda• Core Trends• The Economy – Impact on R&D and Budgets• Conclusion 22
  23. 23. STM and Recession• STM considered to be resilient• Past data (where available) would indicate cautious optimism• Challenge: Previous recessions occurred prior to Web 2.0, uptake in semantic capabilities, and occurred earlier on in the history of search engines• Indicators to watch: Subscription renewals Corporate financial performance Textbook sales Corporate R&D trends R&D funding patterns Corporate investments Scientific funding indicators Product development pipelines STM student enrollment patterns Leadership changes, etc. Academic budgets Mergers & Acquisitions 23
  24. 24. Recession & Revenue Growth • The 2001 recession did not appear to have a major impact on top STM publishersUS$ Billions Source: Chart built from data in EPS Market Monitor, Feb 2004, Jun 2004 and June 2006 24
  25. 25. Past Performance: US R&D Expenditures• Minimal change around three recession periods Source: US NSF, National Patterns of R&D Resources: 2006 Data Update, Table1, as seen online at 25 www.nsf.gov/statistics/nsf07331/pdf/tab1.pdf
  26. 26. Past Performance: Global R&D Expenditures• OECD data shows some slowing during past recession periods, but there were no major declines Gross Domestic Expenditure on R&D by area, 1991-2005 Source: OECD, Science & Technology Indicators, 2007, as seen online at: 26 http://titania.sourceoecd.org/vl=3800231/cl=24/nw=1/rpsv/sti2007/ga2-4.htm
  27. 27. Global Pharma R&D Expenditure, 1997-2011p• No decline visible around 2001 recession P - Projected figures calculated based on an average annual growth in R&D expenditure between 2002 and 2007. Source: 2008 Pharmaceutical R&D Factbook, CMR 27
  28. 28. Today’s Global Economic Crisis• Tim Studt, Editor in Chief, Laboratory Equipment, on corporate R&D: – “R&D investments for the next 12 months are likely to be more strategic than theyve been in many years. Some [companies] will hold onto or strengthen their core technologies. Some will look to combine or integrate technologies. Some will look to merge or acquire (although acquisitions are likely to be substantially down due to the banking failures). And still others (those with cash flow issues) will just retrench and try to cut their losses—its difficult to invest in R&D in the middle of a downsizing.”• Moody’s Investor Service on Higher Ed: – The “potential effects on some” US institutions due to the economic climate “will be significant if current trends persist.” Although Higher Ed is “more insulated from near-term budget shortfalls caused by recessions” (compared with other municipal market sectors), “colleges are exposed to risks emanating from the variable rate debt structure adopted by some colleges in recent years.” – Despite this, Moody’s maintains “a stable outlook for the sector due to its fundamental strengths” of high student demand for education, “generally strong” balance sheets and a resilient business model. Source: Studt, T., www.rdmag.com/default.aspx, Oct 13; 28 www.researchrecap.com/index.php/2008/10/17/credit-squeeze-on-some-universities-may-become-significant/
  29. 29. Agenda• Core Trends• The Economy• Conclusion 29
  30. 30. Publisher Ecosystem• Will the publisher ecosystem change?• Difficult to predict what it might look like in 10 years, but a comparative conceptual view of today with the view from 1998 is interesting 30
  31. 31. A View of STM Publishing 10 Years Ago• STM players, in general, tended to compete mainly with those in their “silo”• This model was on the verge of changing due to the Web taking hold and allowing easier/cheaper/faster access to and sharing of information Primary Secondary Publishers Aggregators Publishers ProQuest Elsevier Thomson Ovid Scientific/ISI CSA Harcourt Kluwer STN CAS Wiley Blackwell BIOSIS Dialog EBSCO ACS PubMed Taylor & Francis SilverPlatter Source: Thomson Reuters Scientific Market Intelligence 31
  32. 32. A Conceptual View of STM Publishing Today • STM players now compete and collaborate across various “silos” • Web reduced barriers to entry; introduced new ways to access and manipulate dataWeb User-Generated Huge Datasets Content Primary Secondary Publishers Aggregators Publishers WoS/BIOSIS - Scientific - WoK Web 2.0 Science Direct - Elsevier - Scopus LWW Journals - WK - ADIS databases - WK - OvidSP CSA Databases - ProQuest - Illumina, Dialog Journals - ACS - CAS databases - ACS - STN Taylor & Francis - Informa - PJB PubMed Semantic Search Open Access Collaboration 32 Source: Thomson Reuters Scientific Market Intelligence
  33. 33. Conclusion: Drivers for the Future• Technology is a Core Driver of innovation; impacting: – Business models: Everyone can become a publisher – Search and retrieval: Migration toward semantic capabilities – Collaboration: Web 2.0 and beyond offers great potential – Text Analytics: Innovative methods to mine/manipulate data• Users and policy-makers: – Internet/network technologies transform user expectations – Consumer sector practices now visible in STM publishingWe’ve reviewed a variety of concepts. However, technological advanceshave paved the way for these developments. Moving forward, technologyinnovation is poised to introduce additional advances which willcontinue to impact the business aspects of STM publishing. 33
  34. 34. The Near Term Prognosis The trends we’ve addressed today are not simply new areas of content or technique. Rather, they represent a series of transformational models and user expectations based on technology innovation that will change the very nature of the way STM providers deliver content to customers, along with measureable shifts in the pricing and authorship model. This concept, coupled with the realities of a global economic crises, should result in a business environment whereby the STM market continues to meet overall needs as usual, although it will likely not be within an environment of “business as usual.” 34
  35. 35. Thank you for attending. Victor Camlekvictor.camlek@thomsonreuters.com 35