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Concierge Auctions Luxury Homes Market Index

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Detailed report that covers the top 40 luxury real estate markets in the United States. Detailed analysis of the top 10 transactions in respective markets showing the true days on market and sale to original list price.

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Concierge Auctions Luxury Homes Market Index

  1. 1. INDEX 2018 | LUXURY HOMES DAYS ON MARKET EDITION 02
  2. 2. That’s the question many homeowners have, but the answer can be complicated. The Concierge Auctions team has researched the most expensive homes sold in the United States in the last three years in order to provide clarity for agents and sellers. The second-annual Concierge “Luxury Homes Days On Market Index” is based on an analysis of the 10 highest property sales1 in 40 markets across the United States. This year, we provide 2017 comparison data to the original 27 markets we analyzed in 2015 and 2016­—plus an additional 13 markets to add increased insights into Days On Market impact. Our research continues to show that luxury properties either sell quickly or remain on the market for a substantial period of time. The data detailed in the following pages shows that longer Days On Market statistically lead to a sale price that is farther away from the original list price when compared to properties which sell in under 180 days. This former situation presents unique challenges for both the seller and the listing agent. This report reviews sales data to illustrate the impact of the number of days a high-end property is marketed for sale and which markets are seeing a surplus inventory of luxury properties. There is no such thing as a uniform real estate market. Markets vary dramatically not just by location, but also by segment. The average price points in many cities across the U.S. has been marked by low inventory and sharp price increases for the last several years. The luxury market has been less consistent, with some markets seeing a stall-out at the uppermost levels. Comparing the 2017 data to the 27 markets featured in last year’s report, it appears that even as the economy has remained strong, overall, the average total Days On Market of 522 in 2017 remained fairly consistent with 2016 and 2015, at 534 and 590 days, respectively. Moreover, luxury properties in the top tier of the market tend to stay on market significantly longer than properties closer to median sale prices. According to data from the National CHAD ROFFERS CHAIRMAN INTRODUCTION How long will it take for my luxury property to sell? COVER: 2140 South Highway A1A Vero Beach, Florida Sold for $10.304M 03
  3. 3. Methodology: All sales data was compiled by the Concierge Auctions team using MLS data and public property records. All analysis is proprietary to Concierge Auctions. By comparison, the median existing home price for all housing types in December 2017, according to the National Association of Realtors®, was $246,800, up 5.8% from the previous year. THE NEWCOMERS This year’s report welcomes 13 new markets for evaluation. These new additions represent popular resort markets as well as urban areas that have benefited from the luxury boom of the past few years such as Denver, Colorado. For the top 101 properties sold in these markets, the average sale price was $8,461,126 and the average Days On Market was 550. In most of these markets, the majority of properties, or nearly 70%, remained on the market for over 180 days. For example, in Westchester County, New York, only three of the top 101 properties sold within 180 days for an average of 101% of their sale price, while the homes that failed to sell within that time frame sold for an average of just 62% of their original asking price and were listed for an average of more than 1,100 days. Footnote: 1. In the following markets and years, the top nine sales of the year were analyzed: Malibu (2015), Miami (2015), Aspen (2015), Dallas (2015), Greenwich (2015 & 2016), and Telluride (2017). 2. Fairfield County, CT excludes Greenwich, CT. See Greenwich, CT market for stats. Association of Realtors® , the overall market for existing home sales showed that as of December 2017, properties typically stayed on the market for 40 days, down from 52 days in December of 2016. In 2017, 72% took longer than 180 days to sell, an increase from years prior, at 59% in 2015 and 65% in 2016. The average sold price for these top 101 properties remained mostly flat, slightly increasing from both 2015 and 2016. The sold price in 2015 was $12,124,696. In 2016, it dropped to $11,490,695, but in 2017 it was up to $12,399,663. While prices at the top of the market increased in some locales, some markets saw either a flattening or a large drop in average sale prices. Comparative to each of the average sale prices in 2015 and 2016, 16 of the 27 markets were lower in 2017 than those achieved in either year prior. The average percent of original list price achieved to the sale price was mostly lower than that achieved in 2015 or 2016. More specifically, those properties that sold in less than 180 days, were 87% in 2015, 93% in 2016, and 92% in 2017. Those that took more than 180 days to sell, were 76% in 2015, 77% in 2016, and 74% in 2017. LUXURY PROPERTIES EITHER SELL QUICKLY OR REMAIN ON THE MARKET FOR A SUBSTANTIAL PERIOD OF TIME.” “ 2150 South Highway A1A | Vero Beach, FL Sold for $10.304M
  4. 4. 04 THE LANDSCAPE OF LUXURY In today’s real estate market, there is limited liquidity for luxury. Properties in the luxury category are difficult to value and sell. Price has little bearing on demand, and multiple buyers don’t often arrive at once. There’s a point of inflection where real estate turns from necessary to discretionary. Similar to other luxury consumption, once a home has been enjoyed and highly customized to its owner, it is worth significantly less to the next buyer. High-end real estate acts the same way; plus, it’s static is location. Individual luxury real estate markets are also subject to variables that may be independent of the national real estate landscape — the amount of competitive properties also listed, the absorption rate in the specific market, seasonality, and local economic factors. These all can help determine how quickly a property will sell. 62-3916 Lanikeha Place | Big Island, Hawaii Sold for $6.608MPRICE REDUCTIONS UNDERMINE VALUE. In the ultra-luxury realm, the buyer pool is limited. Price reductions are proven to undermine the value of a property and may cause buyers to sit back and wait. 05
  5. 5. 07 Days On Market are expensive and directly correlate with perceived value in the eyes of potential buyers. THE COST OF DAYS ON MARKET Our research continues to show that the largest factor in determing the price of a luxury property is the number of days that it has been marketed for sale. Every day a luxury property is on the market, it depreciates in value. When a property has been on the market for a prolonged period of time, not only does it suffer from negative perception, but there’s an inherent cost associated with the accumulated days. This is especially true in markets with a high level of second homes. Today, information about your property’s history is more readily available than ever. Buyers can clearly see the full history of a property, including total Days On Market (any time it’s been de-listed and re-listed), price reductions, and every listing agent hired. A home that has been on the market for a significant amount of time and has seen 06 multiple price reductions will often sell for a fraction of original list price. All of these factors impact the perception of value. In our analysis of the top 101 sales from 2017, we found that luxury properties in the top tier of the market tend to stay on market significantly longer than properties closer to the median sale prices. The total average Days On Market in 2017 was 531 days, with an average sale price to list price of 84%. Of the 29% that sold in less than 180 days, the average Days On Market was 80 days, with properties selling for 93% of the original list price. Of the 71% that sold in over 180 days, the average Days On Market was 708 days, with properties selling for 71% of the original list price. 0 %VALUEACHIEVED DAYS ON MARKET 365+ 100 RETAIL MARKET WHOLESALE DANGER ZONE
  6. 6. 09 This year’s trendsetters. VS. HOT NOT 2017 08 This year’s highlights. > 730 AVG DAYS ON MARKET: 12/40 MARKETS > 365 AVG DAYS ON MARKET: 36/40 MARKETS > 180 AVG DAYS ON MARKET: 38/40 MARKETS AT A GLANCE 2017 $11,131,447 AVERAGE SOLD PRICE 531 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET 1,062 LONGEST AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET Nashville, TN 55 SHORTEST AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET San Francisco, CA BRENTWOOD, CA 80% SOLD IN UNDER 180 DAYS In the elite Brentwood area of Los Angeles, the average Days On Market (DOM) for the top 10 homes was just 154 days, and the average sold price was $15,200,000. In this hot market, 80% of the top 10 homes sold in under 180 days for 86% of their original list price. SEATTLE, WA AVERAGE PRICE UP 49%; DOM DOWN 37% The average sold price of a top 10 home in Seattle was $7,744,743 in 2016 and $11,516,850 in 2017, and, DOM dropped from 569 to 358. OAHU, HI DAYS ON MARKET ROSE 150% IN 2 YEARS Oahu saw both a reduction in price as well as increased DOM. In 2015, the average sale price was $12,037,600 with 293 average DOM, while in 2017, the average sale price dropped to $8,082,800, or nearly 33%, with an average DOM increase to 737. SAN DIEGO, CA 67% REDUCTION IN AVERAGE SALE PRICE San Diego County has seen a more than 67% reduction in the average sale price for the top 10 sales in 2017 compared to 2016, and an increase of 113% more DOM, from 288 to 614. ATLANTA, GA 953 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET The average DOM in Atlanta in 2017 was 953 days and just one of the top 10 properties sold in under 180 days. The remaining nine properties, stayed on the market for 1,044 days, and sold for an average of only 65% of their list price. VERO BEACH, FL OVER 180 DOM = 65% SALE VS. LIST PRICE The Vero market has seen the DOM over 180 days go up dramatically. In 2017, DOM for properties over 180 days averaged 1,115 days. In 2017, two of the properties sold in under 180 days for an average of 86% of their list price. By contrast, the other eight properties only brought in 65% of their original list price at the time of
  7. 7. THE AMOUNT OF HOMES THAT SELL QUICKLY HAS DROPPED 11% SINCE 2015. The amount of homes that sell quickly has dropped 11% since 2015. 28% SOLD IN AN AVERAGE OF 89 DAYS FOR 92% OF LIST PRICE. 72% SOLD IN AN AVERAGE OF 680 DAYS FOR 74% OF LIST PRICE. 35% SOLD IN AN AVERAGE OF 80 DAYS FOR 93% OF LIST PRICE. 65% SOLD IN AN AVERAGE OF 774 DAYS FOR 77% OF LIST PRICE. 39% SOLD IN AN AVERAGE OF 85 DAYS FOR 87% OF LIST PRICE. 59% SOLD IN AN AVERAGE OF 927 DAYS FOR 76% OF LIST PRICE. 201720162015 PROPERTIES SOLD IN UNDER 180 DAYS PROPERTIES SOLD IN OVER 180 DAYS TOTALS YEAR-OVER-YEAR 011010
  8. 8. 2017: TOP SALES AVERAGES ASPEN, CO ATLANTA, GA BEVERLY HILLS, CA BOSTON, MA BRENTWOOD, CA DALLAS, TX GREENWICH, CT HOLMBY/BEL AIR, CA LAS VEGAS, NV MALIBU, CA MAUI, HI MIAMI, FL NASHVILLE, TN OAHU, HI ORANGE COUNTY, CA PACIFIC PALISADES, CA PALM BEACH (PROPER), FL PHOENIX (GREATER AREA) AZ RANCHO SANTA FE, CA SAN DIEGO COUNTY, CA SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY, CA SEATTLE, WA SONOMA COUNTY, CA TELLURIDE, CO VAIL, CO VERO BEACH, FL WESTLAKE VILLAGE, CA AVERAGES $21,991,100 $5,557,582 $24,352,500 $5,861,000 $15,200,000 $8,459,500 $16,629,200 $24,418,500 $4,938,900 $19,120,095 $10,985,000 $22,871,100 $5,312,364 $8,082,800 $20,981,200 $15,199,500 $28,362,528 $6,212,650 $6,585,000 $4,499,700 $12,892,500 $11,516,850 $5,923,150 $4,802,182 $12,466,000 $6,222,600 $5,347,400 $12,399,663 630 953 347 241 154 416 478 251 489 480 698 608 1,062 737 589 398 476 701 481 614 55 358 368 563 472 926 537 522 77 133 139 90 114 121 91 73 52 89 30 N/A 97 60 102 77 128 6 151 137 55 45 48 64 79 169 84 89 692 1,044 436 392 317 490 644 296 676 647 773 608 1,704 906 711 536 563 701 518 667 N/A 567 581 812 570 1,115 732 681 10% 10% 30% 50% 80% 20% 30% 20% 30% 30% 10% 0% 40% 20% 20% 30% 20% 10% 10% 10% 100% 40% 40% 30% 20% 20% 30% 28% 98% 91% 80% 95% 86% 82% 88% 80% 94% 96% 100% N/A 94% 95% 94% 100% 83% 97% 86% 93% 100% 97% 95% 94% 100% 86% 86% 92% 90% 90% 70% 50% 20% 80% 70% 80% 70% 70% 90% 100% 60% 80% 80% 70% 80% 90% 90% 90% 0% 60% 60% 70% 80% 80% 70% 72% 85% 65% 75% 84% 73% 80% 69% 70% 78% 75% 75% 68% 72% 71% 72% 79% 70% 80% 74% 68% N/A 79% 72% 87% 80% 65% 66% 74% SALE PRICE DOM DOM UNDER 180 DAYS % OLP TO SP % SALES AVG DOM DOM OVER 180 DAYS % OLP TO SP % SALES AVG DOM HIGHEST SALE PRICE: Palm Beach (Proper), FL CAPE COD, MA CHICAGO, IL DENVER, CO FAIRFIELD COUNTY, CT2 HOUSTON, TX KAUAI, HI KONA, HI NAPLES, FL PALO ALTO, CA PARK CITY, UT PHILADELPHIA, PA TAMPA, FL WESTCHESTER, NY AVERAGES $9,840,900 $6,555,800 $5,152,500 $7,573,500 $8,503,500 $7,887,000 $11,650,000 $14,045,000 $9,796,900 $9,630,300 $4,958,977 $5,698,925 $8,701,335 $8,461,126 982 322 371 757 394 357 315 409 180 1,039 771 457 798 550 87 44 67 48 77 102 66 79 63 N/A N/A 64 80 71 1,206 441 573 1,229 606 612 422 493 355 1,039 771 719 1,106 736 20% 30% 40% 40% 40% 50% 30% 20% 60% 0% 0% 40% 30% 31% 103% 97% 93% 96% 96% 84% 95% 80% 96% N/A N/A 94% 101% 94% 80% 70% 60% 60% 60% 50% 70% 80% 40% 100% 100% 60% 70% 69% 75% 90% 87% 72% 66% 75% 77% 73% 92% 85% 77% 77% 62% 78% SALE PRICE DOM DOM UNDER 180 DAYS % OLP TO SP % SALES AVG DOM DOM OVER 180 DAYS % OLP TO SP % SALES AVG DOM LOWEST DOM: San Francisco, CA MOST SOLD UNDER 180 DOM: San Francisco, CA LOWEST SALE PRICE: San Diego, CA HIGHEST DOM: Nashville, TN LEAST SOLD UNDER 180 DOM: Miami, FL | Park Cit, UT | Philadelphia, PA 2017: TOP SALES AVERAGES | NEW MARKETS 013012 93 Clapboard Ridge | Greenwich, CT Sold. Listed for $7.195M.
  9. 9. ASPEN, CO ATLANTA, GA BEVERLY HILLS, CA BOSTON, MA BRENTWOOD, CA DALLAS, TX GREENWICH, CT HOLMBY/BEL AIR, CA LAS VEGAS, NV MALIBU, CA MAUI, HI MIAMI, FL NASHVILLE, TN OAHU, HI ORANGE COUNTY, CA PACIFIC PALISADES, CA PALM BEACH (PROPER), FL PHOENIX (GREATER AREA), AZ RANCHO SANTA FE, CA SAN DIEGO COUNTY, CA SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY, CA SEATTLE, WA SONOMA COUNTY, CA TELLURIDE, CO VAIL, CO VERO BEACH, FL WESTLAKE VILLAGE, CA AVERAGES $13,774,000 $5,832,800 $19,730,000 $5,108,000 $12,349,600 $8,090,200 $11,447,888 $32,741,600 $5,262,000 $17,205,400 $10,472,000 $14,998,960 $3,388,400 $8,076,969 $19,182,258 $12,779,406 $24,894,801 $7,393,000 $6,215,000 $13,910,000 $14,544,250 $7,744,743 $10,320,700 $5,963,750 $7,867,388 $6,412,000 $4,543,650 $11,490,695 307 532 375 287 345 672 665 860 398 489 438 497 585 428 525 256 451 690 434 288 372 569 811 1,057 702 807 572 534 81 115 88 99 87 63 131 1 150 81 41 66 47 64 132 85 76 97 95 11 49 78 85 76 85 97 77 80 645 811 805 413 603 797 818 955 564 664 537 794 944 520 623 427 827 838 661 705 856 1,060 992 1,303 967 984 784 774 60% 40% 60% 40% 50% 10% 20% 10% 40% 30% 20% 40% 40% 20% 20% 50% 50% 20% 40% 50% 60% 50% 20% 20% 30% 20% 30% 35% 95% 91% 94% 96% 95% 98% 97% 100% 92% 95% 100% 85% 98% 90% 83% 89% 89% 85% 92% 90% 111% 94% 87% 98% 85% 95% 96% 93% 40% 60% 40% 60% 50% 90% 80% 90% 60% 70% 80% 60% 60% 80% 80% 50% 50% 80% 60% 50% 40% 50% 80% 80% 70% 80% 70% 65% 84% 70% 67% 86% 79% 75% 66% 76% 73% 85% 72% 65% 87% 79% 72% 79% 80% 84% 73% 85% 79% 90% 70% 78% 80% 73% 81% 77% SALE PRICE DOM DOM UNDER 180 DAYS % OLP TO SP % SALES AVG DOM DOM OVER 180 DAYS % OLP TO SP % SALES AVG DOM ASPEN, CO ATLANTA, GA BEVERLY HILLS, CA BOSTON, MA BRENTWOOD, CA DALLAS, TX GREENWICH, CT HOLMBY/BEL AIR, CA LAS VEGAS, NV MALIBU, CA MAUI, HI MIAMI, FL NASHVILLE, TN OAHU, HI ORANGE COUNTY, CA PACIFIC PALISADES, CA PALM BEACH (PROPER), FL PHOENIX (GREATER AREA), AZ RANCHO SANTA FE, CA SAN DIEGO COUNTY, CA SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY, CA SEATTLE, WA SONOMA COUNTY, CA TELLURIDE, CO VAIL, CO VERO BEACH, FL WESTLAKE VILLAGE, CA AVERAGES $22,450,981 $4,248,160 $25,117,000 $8,244,500 $13,381,166 $9,122,222 $9,976,667 $24,536,155 $6,081,000 $14,413,750 $10,899,500 $20,820,011 $3,662,400 $12,037,600 $16,730,489 $12,383,946 $20,235,410 $7,344,769 $7,525,500 $12,032,000 $16,082,500 $8,552,500 $10,814,800 $6,137,195 $11,609,250 $7,241,375 $5,685,944 $12,124,696 667 467 188 412 173 550 940 683 606 471 522 497 852 293 348 494 428 604 1,040 795 579 739 432 977 735 571 875 590 57 106 86 76 82 150 0 123 103 57 113 40 53 88 43 86 122 69 86 114 62 84 106 59 86 112 124 85 972 828 598 917 310 742 940 922 1,778 719 795 725 1,194 499 478 767 559 738 1,675 965 1,353 1,395 922 1,370 909 767 1,197 927 30% 50% 80% 60% 60% 40% 0% 30% 70% 30% 40% 0% 30% 50% 30% 40% 30% 20% 40% 20% 60% 50% 60% 30% 30% 30% 30% 39% 95% 91% 88% 93% 95% 81% 0% 83% 87% 95% 91% 92% 98% 89% 85% 95% 89% 88% 92% 91% 92% 95% 94% 93% 88% 86% 93% 87% 60% 50% 20% 40% 40% 50% 100% 70% 30% 60% 60% 60% 70% 50% 70% 60% 70% 80% 60% 80% 40% 50% 40% 70% 70% 70% 70% 59% 76% 78% 64% 86% 85% 83% 81% 76% 53% 80% 82% 78% 72% 69% 78% 77% 80% 83% 63% 72% 72% 73% 72% 81% 87% 77% 71% 76% SALE PRICE DOM % OLP TO SP % SALES AVG DOM DOM OVER 180 DAYS % OLP TO SP % SALES AVG DOM DOM UNDER 180 DAYS HIGHEST SALE PRICE: Holmby/Bel Air, CA LOWEST DOM: Pacific Palisades, CA MOST SOLD UNDER 180 DOM: Aspen, CO | Beverly Hills, CA San Francisco, CA LOWEST SALE PRICE: Nashville, TN HIGHEST DOM: Telluride, CO LEAST SOLD UNDER 180 DOM: Holmby/Bel Air, CA | Dallas, TX 2016: TOP SALES AVERAGES 2015: TOP SALES AVERAGES HIGHEST SALE PRICE: Beverly Hills, CA LOWEST DOM: Brentwood, CA MOST SOLD UNDER 180 DOM: Beverly Hills, CA LOWEST SALE PRICE: Nashville, TN HIGHEST DOM: Las Vegas, NV LEAST SOLD UNDER 180 DOM: Greenwich, CT | Miami, FL 015014
  10. 10. ASPEN, CO ATLANTA, GA BEVERLY HILLS, CA BOSTON, MA BRENTWOOD, CA DALLAS, TX GREENWICH, CT HOLMBY/BEL AIR, CA LAS VEGAS, NV MALIBU, CA MAUI, HI MIAMI, FL NASHVILLE, TN OAHU, HI ORANGE COUNTY, CA PACIFIC PALISADES, CA PALM BEACH (PROPER), FL PHOENIX (GREATER AREA), AZ RANCHO SANTA FE, CA SAN DIEGO COUNTY, CA SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY, CA SEATTLE, WA SONOMA COUNTY, CA TELLURIDE, CO VAIL, CO VERO BEACH, FL WESTLAKE VILLAGE, CA AVERAGES 60% -5% 23% 15% 23% 5% 45% -25% -6% 11% 5% 52% 57% 0.07% 9% 19% 14% -16% 6% -68% -11% 49% -43% -19% 58% -3% 18% 8% -39% 37% -21% -38% -8% -11% 15% 33% -13% 19% -4% -28% -7% -33% 15% 3% 23% 1% -17% 16% -10% -9% -5% -3% -32% -11% -20% -5% -2% 31% -3% -29% 14% -7% 67% -0.5% -19% 33% 1% 10% 45% -33% 25% 23% 40% -15% -13% -63% -20% 35% -45% -22% 7% -14% -6% 2% AVG SALE PRICE 2015-2016 2016-2017 2015-2017 105% 79% -7% -16% -55% -38% -28% -71% 23% -2% 59% 22% 82% 72% 12% 55% 6% 2% 11% 113% -85% -37% -55% -47% -33% 15% -6% 7% -54% 14% 99% -30% 99% 22% -29% 26% -34% 4% -16% 0% -31% 46% 51% -48% 5% 14% -58% -64% -36% -23% 88% 8% -4% 41% -35% 2% -6% 104% 85% -42% -11% -24% -49% -63% -19% 2% 34% 22% 25% 152% 69% -19% 11% 16% -54% -23% -91% -52% -15% -42% -36% 62% -39% -12% AVG DOM 2015-2016 2016-2017 2015-2017 RISE IN SALE PRICE: Greenwich, CT | Nashville, TN | Seattle, WA FALL IN DOM: San Francisco, CA | Holmby/Bel Air, CA Rancho Santa Fe, CA FALL IN SALE PRICE: San Diego, CA | Sonoma County, CA Oahu, HI RISE IN DOM: Oahu, HI | Atlanta, GA | Beverly Hills, CA 2015-2017: ANNUAL CHANGE 018 CONCIERGEAUCTIONS.COM | 917.284.6023 Concierge Auctions, LLC is a provider of auction marketing services, is not a brokerage, and is not directly involved in selling real property. The services referred to herein are not available to residents of any state where prohibited by applicable state law. Concierge Auctions, LLC, its agents and affiliates, broker partners, auctioneers, and Sellers do not warrant or guaranty the accuracy or completeness of any information contained herein and shall have no liability for errors or omissions or inaccuracies under any circumstances in this or any other property listings or advertising, promotional or publicity statements and materials. This is not meant as a solicitation for listings. Brokers are fully protected and encouraged to participate. Equal Housing Opportunity. All rights reserved. About Concierge Auctions: Concierge Auctions is the largest luxury real estate marketplace in the world. Powered by state-of-the-art technology, the company has generated nearly $2 billion in sales and is active in 38 U.S. states/territories and 19 countries. Concierge curates the best properties globally, matches them with qualified buyers, and facilitates transparent, market-driven transactions in an expedited timeframe. The firm owns what is arguably the most valuable, ultra-high-net-worth client list in real estate and has been named one of America’s fastest-growing companies by Inc. Magazine for the past four years.

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