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Trends in Auto Tech

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Rafael Marañón (CEO & Founder, Wavyn) talks on "Trends in Auto Tech"

The adoption of self-driving cars will be an evolutionary process. Trust on the technology by the customers won’t happen overnight. Also, there are more than a billion cars on the road today with an average of 11.6 years that are not using yet any type of driving assistance technology. In this talk, Rafael Marañón will discuss the current trends and on-going efforts of bringing different types of autonomous features to new and old cars.

Rafa is currently building technologies for autonomous vehicles. He is very passionate about designing products that change the world we live drastically. He is the founder of the MIT Social Media club, and a former employee of Amazon and Cisco in Silicon Valley, where he built and shipped global products to millions of customers.

Co-organizers: SPb Python, ODS Meetup, IT Talk

Publicada em: Tecnologia
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Trends in Auto Tech

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  2. 2. Trends in Auto Tech Rafael Marañón CEO at Wavyn Saint Petersburg, Russia August 23, 2018
  3. 3. Agenda Part 1 • Introduction • Problem and existing solutions • Industry transition • Investments • Q&A (Break) @rafaelmaranon 3 Part 2 • Technologies • Use cases / features • Adoption challenges and solutions • Q&A
  4. 4. What problem are we solving? 4@rafaelmaranon
  5. 5. @rafaelmaranon 5@rafaelmaranon
  6. 6. What is already done? 6@rafaelmaranon
  7. 7. Infrastructure improvements Road Traffic Safety: measures to ensure that in the event of a crash, the impact energies remain below the threshold likely to produce either death or serious injury of road users. • Median barriers • Guard rails • Marked lanes • Speed humps • Rumble strips • Speed cameras • Sidewalks for pedestrians • Traffic calming @rafaelmaranon 7
  8. 8. Crashworthy systems and devices Passive Vehicle Safety: systems that help reduce the effects of an accident. These devices automatically deploy when the car gets into a crash. • Seat belts • Airbags • Shatter resistant glass • Bumpers • Strong body structures @rafaelmaranon 8
  9. 9. Reducing Human Errors Active Vehicle Safety: systems that help avoid automobile accidents, such as good steering and brakes. Driver-assistance technologies are also considered “active” since they work to maintain control and avoid accidents, but they work using more sophisticated technology. • Anti-lock braking systems (ABS) • Steering and Suspension systems • Lights and Reflectors • Signals and Mirrors Emerging: • Advance Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) • Full Autonomous vehicles @rafaelmaranon 9
  10. 10. How are we transitioning? 10@rafaelmaranon
  11. 11. 11@rafaelmaranon
  12. 12. 12@rafaelmaranon
  13. 13. Source: McKinsey&Company 13@rafaelmaranon
  14. 14. Autonomous vs Semi-Autonomous "What we found was pretty scary. It's hard to take over because [the drivers] have lost contextual awareness." @rafaelmaranon 14 “Hand-Off” Between Autonomous Car and Driver is a Terrible Idea (Source: MIT 6.S094)
  15. 15. Semi-Autonomous Cars Could Increase Distracted-Driving Deaths Traffic fatalities are rising, but autonomous driver aids don’t yet do enough to ensure that people concentrate on the road. (Source: MIT Tech Review) 15@rafaelmaranon
  16. 16. @rafaelmaranon 16 Autonomous vs Semi-Autonomous (Source: MIT 6.S094)
  17. 17. @rafaelmaranon 17 (Source: MIT 6.S094)
  18. 18. Customers see ADAS as valuable Demand for ADAS is expected to increase over the next decade due to: • Regulatory: Forward Collision Warning (FCW) and Autonomous Emergency Break (AEB) mandatory by 2020 in both the US and the EU • Consumer interest: safety applications that protect drivers, reduce accidents and promote comfort and economy • OEMs and suppliers: main feature differentiating automotive brands, as well as one of their most important revenue sources • Startups and high-tech players: same technology could also be used to create fully autonomous vehicles @rafaelmaranon 18 Source: McKinsey&Company The operation of automated cars will move from advanced driver-assistance systems to fully autonomous driving as the technology matures.
  19. 19. What are the investment? 19@rafaelmaranon
  20. 20. Major categories investors are looking at Auto tech companies use software to improve safety, convenience, and efficiency in cars. These are the major categories: • Assisted and autonomous driving • Driver safety tools • Connected vehicle/driving data • Fleet telematics • Vehicle-to-vehicle communication • Auto cybersecurity 20@rafaelmaranon
  21. 21. 21@rafaelmaranon
  22. 22. $5.0B in 2016 $0.6B in 2016 $1.4B in 2016 $4.0B in 2017 $13.8B in 2016 $16.5B in 2017 22@rafaelmaranon
  23. 23. 23@rafaelmaranon
  24. 24. 24@rafaelmaranon
  25. 25. 25@rafaelmaranon
  26. 26. 26@rafaelmaranon
  27. 27. What are the key technologies involved? 27@rafaelmaranon
  28. 28. Sensors 28@rafaelmaranon
  29. 29. @rafaelmaranon 29 Camera + LiDAR
  30. 30. @rafaelmaranon 30 (Source: Wccftech)
  31. 31. @rafaelmaranon 31 (Source: Quanergy)
  32. 32. @rafaelmaranon 32 Computer Vision
  33. 33. @rafaelmaranon 33 (Source: MIT 6.S094: Deep Learning for Self-Driving Cars https://selfdrivingcars.mit.edu/)
  34. 34. @rafaelmaranon 34 (Source: MIT 6.S094: Deep Learning for Self-Driving Cars. https://selfdrivingcars.mit.edu/)
  35. 35. @rafaelmaranon 35
  36. 36. What are the highly automated car features? 36@rafaelmaranon
  37. 37. Automated Driver Assistance Features NON-INTERVENTION (monitoring, warning) INTERVENTION (braking, and steering) Forward Collision Warning (FCW) Autonomous Emergency Break (AEB) Collision Avoidance Assist (CAA) Lane Departure Warning (LDW) Lane Keeping Assist (LKA) High Speed Warning (HSW) Speed Limiter (SL) Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) @rafaelmaranon 37
  38. 38. Forward Collision Warning (FCW) What does it do? Alerts the drivers to a potential collision with a vehicle detected ahead How does it work? Uses cameras, radar, or laser (or some combination thereof) to scan the road ahead and to alert the driver if the distance to a vehicle ahead is closing too quickly. The systems alert the driver with an audible, haptic (touch), and/or visual cue iihs.org * According to the NHTSA, out of the 6 million car accidents that happen on U.S. roads every year, over 40% of them (2.5 million) are rear-end collisions. FCW alone reduced rear-end striking crash involvement rates by 23% 38@rafaelmaranon
  39. 39. Autonomous Emergency Brake (AEB) What does it do? Automatically activates the vehicle’s brake, to some degree, when necessary How does it work? Use sensors, cameras, radar, and LIDAR to detect an impending vehicle collision. Systems vary from pre-charging brakes, slowing the vehicle to lessen damage or even stop the vehicle before a collision occurs volvo.com * FCW with AEB reduced rear-end striking crash involvement rates by 39% 39@rafaelmaranon
  40. 40. Collision Avoidance Assist (CAA) What does it do? Helps the driver steer around an obstacle in a critical situation How does it work? Uses data from the two radar sensors and the front camera to calculate a suitable evasive maneuver corridor. After a warning, it applies a slight steering torque. audi.com 40@rafaelmaranon
  41. 41. Lane Departure Warning (LDW) What does it do? Alerts drivers when their vehicle is about to unintentionally cross into another lane with a visual and audio or sensory cue. How does it work? A small front camera detect the distance of road surface markings and then analyzes that information to determine if the vehicle is about to drift across said markings. If the turn signal is not activated when this happens, the driver is alerted by a visual warning and an audible tone or a vibration. iihs.org * In 2015, nearly 13,000 people died in single-vehicle run-off-road, head-on, and sideswipe crashes where a passenger vehicle left the lane unintentionally 41@rafaelmaranon
  42. 42. Lane Keeping Assist (LKA) What does it do? Acts to automatically move the vehicle back into the lane. How does it work? The car will either apply the brakes on the opposite front wheel or use steering input to make the correction. A driver who simply forgot to use the turn signal can easily overcome this by actively steering the car in the desired direction. iihs.org * In model year 2017, lane departure warning was available on 63% of new U.S. passenger vehicle series equipment (5% as standard and 57% as optional) 42@rafaelmaranon
  43. 43. High Speed Warning (HSW) What does it do? Alert driver when speeding How does it work? Coordinates the car’s position, via GPS, with a database of speed limit information to alert drivers if they’re speeding. This helps drivers maintain a safe driving speed. 43@rafaelmaranon
  44. 44. Speed Limiter (SL) What does it do? Limits driving speed to a value set by the driver How does it work? When the preset limit is reached, the vehicle gently throttles the speed down. The speed limit is not exceeded even if the driver applies more pressure to the accelerator pedal. audi.com 44@rafaelmaranon
  45. 45. Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) What does it do? Automatically speeds up and slows down your car to keep a set following distance relative to the car ahead. Provides some limited braking. How does it work? A radar and cameras read cars in front of you in your lane. Then the car increase or decrease your car’s speed to maintain a following distance that you set. Advanced versions can even slow and stop your car in traffic jams, then accelerate for you. audi.com 45@rafaelmaranon
  46. 46. Other Automated Driver Assistance Features Surround view | Remote Control Parking | Park Distance Control | Back-up Camera … @rafaelmaranon Blind Spot Monitor: alerts drivers when there may be something located in their blind spot. Rear Cross Traffic Alert: provides an alert to the driver that traffic is approaching from the left or right when the vehicle is in reverse. Park Assist: Helps guide you into a parallel parking spot after searching and finding a viable option. It automatically steer the car but doesn’t brake or shift gears. 46
  47. 47. How is the adoption? 47@rafaelmaranon
  48. 48. Adoption Challenges Psychological: The trust themselves more than the technology Security and technology failure: Feeling the new car advances are too new and unproven Experience: Beeps are annoying Cost: Not willing to pay extra for it @rafaelmaranon How can we transition smoothly to self-driving cars? 48
  49. 49. (Source: Azim Shariff, Jean-François Bonnefon and Iyad Rahwan) 1. Overcome Psychological Challenges Psychological Challenge Suggested Actions The dilemmas of autonomous ethics Shift the discussion from the relative risk of injury to the absolute risk. Appeal to consumers’ desire for virtue signaling. Overreactions after inevitable accidents Prepare the public for the inevitability of accidents. Openly communicate algorithmic improvement. A lack of transparency Find what information people find crucial and comforting. This will help to change people’s mental model of autonomous vehicles perceived safety. 49@rafaelmaranon
  50. 50. The MIT Moral Machine (moralmachine.mit.edu) (Source: moralmachine.mit.edu) 50@rafaelmaranon
  51. 51. (Source: moralmachine.mit.edu) 51@rafaelmaranon
  52. 52. 2. Start with passive driving assistants Self-driving cars promise many benefits. However, it will take many years to reach the masses. FCW and LKA will prevent up to 40% of the rear- end car crashes according to a Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) report. Software and consumer electronics startups that can also use the non-intervention part of the technology to target a billion car market operating without any type of driving assistant technology. @rafaelmaranon 52
  53. 53. 3. Design Safety Driving Experiences (DX) Noisy driver assistance is a big complaint. While useful at the beginning, it become annoying over time, to the point you end up switching it off permanently * An IIHS study found that 66% of drivers turned off the lane departure warning. More a life-saver than annoying ‘turn signal nanny’ through personalization @rafaelmaranon 53
  54. 54. 54@rafaelmaranon
  55. 55. Which Brands Do LDW and LKA Best? Most Satisfying (77% for LDW and 80% for LKA): Cadillac, Hyundai, and Tesla followed by Lexus, Dodge, Chrysler, and Jeep “I love it. It has a vibration in the seat and a visual cue on the dashboard. It’s good for me, but it’s critical for my husband, who frequently drifts. I don’t have to point it out now,” the owner of a 2015 Cadillac SRX said, about LDW. Least Satisfying (59% LDW and 62% LKA): Honda (Inconsistent operation was a major complaint) “The LKA will work for a few minutes and then it is as if it forgets what it is supposed to be doing and lets your car drift out of the lane, mostly toward the shoulder,” an owner of a 2016 Honda CR-V said. 55@rafaelmaranon
  56. 56. Conclusions @rafaelmaranon 56 Semi-Autonomous vehicle is a good approach • Flaws need humans. The scene understanding problem requires much more than pixel-level labeling Changing people’s mental models on AI is needed • Humans need to understand robots limitations to build trust Enjoyable and safe driving experience is a requirement • Robots need to exist with humans in order to “driving like a human”
  57. 57. Are You Up To The Challenge? @rafaelmaranon 57
  58. 58. Thanks! rafa@wavyn.com