16. Drivers for change Climate Water Energy Food Population, demography, consumption and development pressures Competition for land & water resources Resource depletion & degradation
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19. Impacts As greenhouse gases increase so does temperature land, sea & air and sea levels oceans more acidic snow & ice melt more variable climate more extreme weather Climate change is the biggest market failure the world has seen(Stern and Garnaut)
20. Water Each calorie takes one litre of water to produce, on average All the world’s major food producing basins are effectively ‘closed’ or already over-committed 9
22. Feeding the world The world needs to increase food production by about 70% by 2050, & improve distribution We have done this in the past, mainly through clearing, cultivating and irrigating more land and intensification, better varieties, more fertiliser, pesticides Climate change and oil depletion is narrowing those options, with limits to water, land, energy & nutrients 11
23. Energy & nutrients World The era of abundant, cheap fossil fuels is coming to a close Rising oil costs = rising costs for fertiliser, agri-chemicals, transport and food World oil demand expected to grow 50% by 2025 Oil discovery peaked in the 1960s, and production is in decline, 4 barrels used for each 1 discovered 49 of 65 oil producing regions are past their peak, declining at average 6.7% per year The world needs new production six times that of Saudi Arabia today to be brought on stream between 2007 and 2030 12
27. We need a third agricultural revolution High level goals: e.g. 200% increase in food & fibre production while doubling water productivity, and becoming a net energy producer from farming lands How to get there? Farming systems that make more efficient use of and conserve water, energy, nutrients, carbon and biodiversity Smart metering, sensing, telemetry, robotics, guidance, biotech Better understanding of soil carbon & microbial activity Radically reducing waste in all parts of the food chain Farming systems producing renewable (2nd gen) bioenergy Also producing energy from waste Urban and peri-urban food production Attracting talented young people into careers in agriculture 14
28. Food Security in Timor Leste Apology: many people here know much more about this subject than me! Food security is obviously a very high priority for TL ~40% of people malnourished (WFP VAM 2005) many people hungry for some months each year food production varies widely with seasonal conditions, but rarely exceeds consumption, so imports are crucial many key elements of a productive and sustainable system are not yet in place — economic scarcity The integration issues I am raising here may not seem as urgent as the basic measures needed to increase food production and the reliability of the food system 15
29. Food Security in Timor Leste (2) However, longer term progress will depend on the attention given to: Agricultural education and extension to develop a skilled workforce (professionals and practitioners [farmers & food processors]) The social, economic and legal context of agriculture, fisheries and forestry to get a sound framework in place, that meets social goals Agricultural and environmental research to develop & refine locally useful knowledge and to develop new solutions Catchment management to identify and look after the most valuable soils and to protect water resources Water management to get the most production from the least amount of water, and to protect water quality (surface water and groundwater) Renewable energy systems to become independent from imported oil 16
30. Scales for response to climate change Many of the main drivers of biodiversity loss operate at the landscape-scale e.g. habitat fragmentation, invasive species and changed fire regimes. It is the scale which lends itself to integrated, whole of ecosystem and cross tenure solutions. In Australia the most threatened components of biodiversity are in the intensive zones and CSIRO 2010
31. Summary Climate, water, energy, food and health are interconnected The age of cheap, abundant fossil fuel energy is ending Agricultural planning needs to integrate its consideration of climate, carbon, water, energy and food Farming & food systems are part of the primary health system Food security in Timor Leste has many urgent and immediate basic issues to tackle. However these big integration issues will determine longer term success, and need to be considered now. CDU is pleased to be a long term partner with UNTL and the Government to develop knowledge and capacity to help TL build more sustainable food systems, and to look after its wonderful environment for the benefit of the people of Timor Leste.
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