This document summarizes a presentation by N. Barry Lyon and Jasmine Cracknell to the Toronto Condo Network on March 2nd, 2012 about the dynamics of the Greater Toronto Area condo apartment market. It includes statistics on the number of high-rise buildings and units completed since 2000, yearly new sales and resales from 2002 to 2012, sales by unit type in 2005 and 2012, and average unit sizes from 2004 to 2012. It also discusses new downtown developments in 905 municipalities, planned new office buildings and parks in downtown Toronto, transit solutions, and the future role of investors in the condo market.

1. Investors Rule!
Dynamics of the GTA Condo Apartment Market
Presentation to the Toronto Condo Network
By: N. Barry Lyon and Jasmine Cracknell
March 2nd, 2012
199 High-Rise Apartment Buildings, 46,387 Units
Completed Since 2000
(Dufferin, Bloor, DVP and Lake Ontario)
Source: UrbanToronto, 3Dementia, February 2010
High-Rise Marketplace Yearly New Sales and Resales
Greater Toronto Area, 2002 to 2012F
60,000
50,000 Resales
New Sales
40,000 44%
# Units
49% 51% 52%
30,000
50% 52% 58%
49% 56%
55%
20,000 57%
56%
10,000 51% 49% 48%
51% 50% 48% 42%
43% 45% 44%
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F
Source: RealNet Canada Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board and NBLC
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

2. New High-Rise Sales 905 vs 416
Greater Toronto Area, 2006 to 2011
25,000
20,000 2005
2006
Total Sales (# Units)
2007
15,000
2008
2009
10,000 2010
2011
5,000
0
905 416
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
New High-Rise Sales
By Former 416 Municipalities, 2006 to 2011
14000
12000
2005
10000 2006
Total Sales (# Units)
2007
8000 2008
2009
6000
2010
4000 2011
2000
0
Etobicoke North York Scarborough Toronto
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

3. New High-Rise Sales
By 905 Municipalities, 2006 to 2011
3,000
2,500 2005
2006
2,000 2007
Total Sales (# Units)
2008
1,500
2009
2010
1,000
2011
500
0
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

4. N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

5. New High-Rise Sales By Unit Type
Greater Toronto Area, 2005
Penthouse Other
3-Bed & Up 3% 2%
2%
Studio
4%
1-Bed
2-Bed+Den 20%
20%
2-Bed 1-Bed+Den
21% 28%
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
New High-Rise Sales By Unit Type
Greater Toronto Area, January 2012
Penthouse Other
3-Bed & Up 2% Studio
3%
2% 2%
2-Bed+Den 1-Bed
12% 21%
2-Bed
24%
1-Bed+Den
34%
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

6. Monthly High-Rise New Sales and Resales and Average Pricing
Greater Toronto Area, 2006 to 2012
4000 $500,000
New Sales Resales New Price Resale Price
$450,000
3500
$400,000
3000
$350,000
Average Sale Price
Number of Sales
2500
$300,000
2000 $250,000
$200,000
1500
$150,000
1000
$100,000
500
$50,000
0 $0
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Source: RealNet Canada Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board and NBLC
Source: NBLC, RealNet Canada Inc. and RBC
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

7. New High-Rise Unsold Inventory and Site Count
Greater Toronto Area, 2005 to 2012
25,000 450
High Rise Inventory
400
High Rise Site Count
20,000 350
Unsold Inventory (# of Units)
# of Active High-Rise Site
300
15,000
250
200
10,000
150
5,000 100
50
0 0
Oct-05
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Apr-05
Jul-05
Apr-06
Jul-06
Apr-07
Jul-07
Apr-08
Jul-08
Apr-09
Jul-09
Apr-10
Jul-10
Apr-11
Jul-11
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
New High-Rise Occupancies Greater Toronto Area, 2000 to 2016F
2016F 2,303
2015F 7,576
2014F 21,608
2013F 25,454
2012F 24,938
2011 14,102
2010 15,788
2009 11,783
2008 12,942
2007 15,407
2006 14,608
2005 15,046
2004 10,066
2003 12,279
2002 9,832
2001 3,906
2000 8,534
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Total Units
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

8. New High-Rise Average Unit Size (sq. ft.)
Greater Toronto Area, 2004 to 2012
940
920
900
Average Unit Size (sq. ft.)
880
860
840
820
800
780
760
740
Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
Opera – 741 square foot Three-Bedroom Unit at Peter Street Condos
Source: Site Marketing Materials
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

9. 905’s New Downtowns
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

10. 905’s New Downtowns
Mississauga
Vaughan
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

11. 905’s New Downtowns
Richmond Hill
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

12. Changing Dynamic of Downtown Toronto
Planned New Downtown Toronto Office Buildings
Source: BMO Capital Markets
10 York
Waterfront Parks Coming Along
Underpass Park – Waterfront Toronto
]
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

13. Changing Dynamic of Downtown Toronto
Underpass Park, Waterfront Toronto
Pan Am Athlete’s Village: 2015
View East from Front and Cherry
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

14. Transit Solutions
Union Station Redevelopment Doubling Capacity
Where Should Transit Go? Downtown Relief Line?
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

15. The Big Unknown – Future Role of Investors
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com

16. Investor Driven Condo Launch Format
STAGES DESCRIPTION
1
First round of selling, lowest possible pricing. Investors purchase with a
“Platinum Agent”. A Platinum Agent is a high-volume broker or sales
representative who has the best relationships with condo developers.
PLATINUM AGENTS Platinum Agents typically sell 10 or more units in a project (sometimes as
much as 50 units). These units are usually ‘allocated’ in advance. Typically
10-15 Platinum Agents in a given project.
2
VIP AGENTS
A VIP Agent is a broker or sales representative that has sold a unit or
multiple units for the specific developer in the past. A typical project launch
will have anywhere from 50-300 VIP agents. These agents will NOT have
units allocated to them in advance.
3
Once the VIP stage is over, the developer will open its doors to all brokers
and sales representatives. Again, prices are typically raised for this new
GENERAL AGENTS phase of selling. Individual investors and buyers, however, are still not
permitted to walk in and purchase without the representation of a broker
or agent.
4
At the start of sales, the developer will typically launch a website for the
project (i.e. ABCcondos.com). The website will provide very limited details,
PRE-REGISTRATION and include a ‘registration form’ for individual investors and buyers. It is
usually during this phase where individuals are asked to come in and
purchase providing them priority over the general public.
5
PUBLIC GRAND
OPENING
By this phase, the developer will have started their major ad campaign,
creating awareness for the project to the general public. This is often
accompanied by a ‘Grand Opening’ event, where the public is invited to
come in and purchase.
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2
(416) 364-4414
www.nblc.com