Juliet Mian - Keynote - 4TU DeSIRE conference 2019
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Dr. Juliet Mian, Technical Director at the Resilience Shift, gave a keynote address at the 4TU DeSIRE conference on Resilience Engineering. This year’s theme is on Building Connections for Resilience Engineering Solutions. 4TU.Resilience Engineering is a partnership of four universities of technology (TU Delft, Eindhoven University of Technology, University of Twente and University of Wageningen) in the Netherlands who are jointly committed to strengthening and pooling technical knowledge. Find out more about the Resilience Shift at https://www.resilienceshift.org/
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Juliet Mian - Keynote - 4TU DeSIRE conference 2019
- 1. resilienceshift.org info@resilienceshift.org Critical Infrastructure Resilience: reflections on putting theory into practice Dr Juliet Mian Technical Director
- 2. V U C A The safety and well-being of billions of people depends on infrastructure systems that can deliver critical services … that can provide, protect or connect us - whatever the future has in store.
- 3. The context of critical infrastructure • Ageing and deteriorating assets • Extreme weather events and climate change • Fragmented governance systems • Interconnected and interdependent systems • Existing and new technologies • Long life assets facing uncertain future • Cyber-threats • Socio-technical systems • Changing customer expectations
- 4. Resilience building allows you to prevent or mitigate against shocks and stresses you identify and better able to respond to those you can’t predict or avoid.
- 5. Resilience requires understanding and consideration of complexity and the interdependence of systems and services underpinning modern life.
- 10. A value-driven approach Return on investment Increased economic growth and productivity Minimal service interruptions Reduced carbon emissions
- 11. long term unknown whole system dynamic short term known asset scale Risk Resilience recover/adaptprepare static Capex Totex Efficiency Avoided loss
- 12. resilienceshift.org info@resilienceshift.org @resilienceshift The Resilience Shift He aha te mea nui o te ao - He tāngata, he tāngata, he tāngata What is the thing that matters most? It’s the people, it’s the people it’s the people Maori Proverb
Notas do Editor
- Start with introduction – I’m a practicing civil engineer, with a long and diverse career working for Arup. geotechnical engineering, geotechnical earthquake engineering, primarily on large oil and gas projects around the world. Journey to resilience – advanced design as part of the wider system. Thing we can’t predict, or avoid, or design for. Large linear and networked infrastructure, road and rail projects, water and energy. Legacy assets. Operational response. My clients - practical approaches for considering interdependencies, as the importance of whole systems thinking increases. Why I love interdependencies – (a) it’s difficult, (b) it requires collaboration (c) forces us to recognise uncertainty and the limits of what we know. So today, Technical Director for the Resilience Shift, sweet spot between theory and mainstream practice – unique, and privileged. About the Resilience Shift – why, what, how. The Resilience Shift is a global initiative to enhance the resilience of critical infrastructure through a change in practice. For those planning, designing, funding, delivering, operating and maintaining CI, ‘what’ we mean by resilience, in practical, tangible terms, common understanding across the sectors. ‘why’ they need to build resilience into their decision-making. Finally, ‘how’ to into practice, the tools and approaches that will help. Context to the Resilience Shift, and then my reflections on barriers.
- So firstly, at the highest level, why is this important? As we're all aware, the infrastructure that we're responsible for has to operate in an increasingly volatile uncertain complex and ambiguous world.
- Most practitioners, will recognise at least some of these challenges, all of which provide the context for why we need to be thinking about future resilience. Interconnected systems, and the emergence of new technologies are two issues that go hand-in-hand - new dependencies. Customer expectations is also a really important context – talk about my teenager. We need to understand better what’s tolerable. The context of critical infrastructure is changing all the time, there are some noticeable trends. Infrastructure gap. $3tn per year. Also mention transitions as a context – window of opportunity
- More than a traditional risk management approach –push back on, from colleagues. But regardless of the endless debate on taxonomy, it’s really important to shift practice towards an acceptance of failure, a robust approach to mitigating known risks, and building in the characteristics that make us better able to respond to those that we can’t predict or avoid. Prepared for failure, ‘known and unknown’, ‘expected and unexpected’, ordinary and extraordinary. Complexity and uncertainty. There are principles that will help. Builds on management of risks related to known hazards and adds aspects such as ‘safe to fail’, threat agnostic. Being prepared to be surprised.
- Initial hypotheses – this hasn’t changed. Recognising the complexity socio-ecological-technical systems, and their interdependence. Brexit – there are lessons to learn from this – when we are ready and able to do so.
- So this is a scenario that the UK has had to work through. Lesson 1 – not all about climate change, Lesson 2 – we shouldn’t assume we know what is round the corner. Lesson 3 – global interconnectedness. Too soon. But one day, we can share our lessons from this with other countries – because transferring lessons between sectors and between cities and countries is another essential
- So, we know there are some important changes. Why difficult, what barriers, and therefore how to move forward. Population growth Sustainability. Climate change Flood resilient house? Digital revolution. I used to work on large oil and gas projects.
- Critical infrastructure resilience affects a number of the Sustainable Development Goals and has particular relevance for Goal 9 – Industrial Innovation and Infrastructure The UN SDGs are fundamentally important to everything that we as engineering professionals decide to do. It’s a holistic framework that sets out the urgency and the importance of getting this right. Mention energy transition towards zero carbon. UN SDGs and one planet living But in the face of this, there are still a lot of thing that haven’t changed – for example, we still design our infrastructure to fixed thresholds, we still (in the main) plan interventions assuming that the past is representative of the future. We should start to get really comfortable with the fact that we can’t predict the future, we can only imagine it. Use of diverse scenarios. We need to not be surprised by being surprised. Instead of being caught out by the surprises, we should expect them.
- So, barriers. There is no point ignoring the fact that there are barriers to putting this into practice. Story of this barrier – there for a reason. Dealing with complexity and emergent properties Adopting a whole systems approach, recognising interdependencies between critical infrastructure – needs collaboration and data sharing Planning and designing for an uncertain future – how do you specify this on a project, as compared to designing to a known threshold? How do owners and operators get what they want? How do designers and contractors sign up to this? How do asset managers do their life cycle cost analysis? Focussing on the function of a critical infrastructure system, not on a specific asset. And who’s practice? – value chain. Each decision maker needs to know ‘what’ resilience is, ‘why’ it’s important, both to end users but also to their own needs, and ‘how’ to do things differently. Not everyone sees this as urgently as I do. Not everyone likes change, plenty of people happy to keep doing things in the same way. If we set the bar too low, no-one will be interested; we will simply be stating the obvious. Conversely, if we set the bar too high, we risk disengaging many of those who we want to bring with us by appearing disconnected from current practice. We have set out in our guiding principles that we will be open in everything we do, and we will ‘learn by doing Mention our agenda setting research.
- Importance of resilience value, value different to different. We talk about resilience value as the golden thread that links everyone in the chain Use it to design and plan our work.
- This is what the Critical Infrastructure Resilience: Understanding the Landscape report told us. I am a certified asset management professional… I recognise the drivers on the right. Need to work with them. It is a balancing act. All of this matters.
- The community helping with the clear up after the Christchurch earthquakes.