1. Food Security, Agriculture and Poverty
in Asia
Peter Warr
John Crawford Professor of Agricultural Economics
Arndt-Corden Department of Economics
Crawford School of Public Policy
Australian National University
Peter.Warr@anu.edu.au

2. 2
Food security is back on the international
agenda, mainly because of recent increases
in international food prices.

3. 3
International real prices of rice, wheat and maize, 1900 to 2012

4. 4
Three features of these real commodity price data are
important for food security:
1. all three have declined markedly over the long term;
2. all three have been highly volatile; and
3. all three increased significantly in recent years.

5. 5
International real prices of rice, wheat and maize, 1900 to 2012

6. 6
How can agricultural policy promote food security?
Two kinds of national level agricultural policy responses:
. Policies to enhance domestic agricultural productivity
. Policies to raise domestic agricultural prices
Example:
In the case of Indonesia: both kinds of policies are in place:
. Supply-enhancing infrastructure, input subsidies, and research
. Import ban on rice designed to promote rice self-sufficiency by
raising domestic rice prices

7. 7
Number of undernourished people in the world, 2010-12
Source: Data from FAO Food Security Indicators, 2012.
329
535
Rest of world
Asia

8. 8
Numbers of
undernourished
people
Source: Data from FAO Food Security Indicators, 2012.

9. 9
Prevalence and depth of food insecurity: cumulative distribution function

10. 10
Undernourishment:
prevalence and depth

11. 11
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990-92 1995-97 2000-02 2005-07 2010-12
3yearavg.undernourishment(%)
China India
Proportion of undernourished people: China and India

12. 12
Proportion of undernourished people: Southeast Asia
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1990-92 1995-97 2000-02 2005-07 2010-12
3yearavg.undernourishment(%)
Indonesia Cambodia Vietnam Thailand Philippines Lao

13. 13
Proportion of undernourished people: South Asia (except India)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990-92 1995-97 2000-02 2005-07 2010-12
3yearavg.undernourishment(%)
Maldives Pakistan Nepal Sri Lanka Bangladesh

14. 14
Proportion of undernourished people: North, West and Central Asia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990-92 1995-97 2000-02 2005-07 2010-12
3yearavg.undernourishment(%)
Georgia Kyrgyzstan Mongolia Yemen Tajikistan

15. 15
Undernourishment and poverty in the developing countries

16. 16
Undernourishment and poverty in Asia

17. 17
Stunting among children under 5 years old
42.8
34.4
31.3 31.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1980-1989 2010-2012
%ofchildrenunder5yearsold
Asia
Other low and
middle income
countries

18. 18
Underweight among children under 5 years old
30.0
20.6
15.0
12.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1980-1989 2010-2012
%ofchildrenunder5yearsold
Asia
Other low and
middle income
countries

19. 19
Undernourishment, poverty and economic growth

20. 20
Undernourishment, food availability and food access

21. 21
Summary and conclusions
1. The number of undernourished people in Asia is 65% of the
global total.
2. In the last two decades undernourishment, childhood stunting
and childhood underweight have all declined in Asia faster than in
developing countries as a whole. But all these measures remain
higher in Asia than elsewhere.
3. In developing countries in general and in Asia poverty reduction
is ahead of schedule to achieve the 2015 MDG (goal 1). But
undernourishment (hunger) is behind schedule.

22. 22
Summary and conclusions
4. Undernourishment is significantly reduced by expansion of
agricultural output. This effect is by far the most significant
component of economic growth.
5. Higher food prices significantly increase the rate of
undernourishment.
6. It is not sufficient to rely solely on aggregate economic growth
or overall poverty reduction to reduce the rate of
undernourishment.

23. 23
Summary and conclusions
7. Agricultural policy should aim to expand agricultural output
without increasing food prices.
8. This is most effectively done by raising agricultural productivity
through investments in infrastructure and
research, supplemented by food safety nets to assist those
unable to benefit from economic growth and to protect against
emergencies.
9. Agricultural protectionism operates by raising agricultural prices
and thereby harms large numbers of vulnerable people.

24. 24
Thanks for listening