Actionable trade ideas for stock market investors and traders seeking alpha by overlaying their portfolios with options, other derivatives, ETFs, and disciplined and applied Game Theory for hedge fund managers and other active fund managers worldwide. Ryan Renicker, CFA
1. Equity Research
Equity Derivatives Equity Linked Strategies
Devapriya Mallick 1.212.526.5429 dmallik@lehman.com
Rohit Bhatia 1.212.526.0367 rbhatia@lehman.com
Ryan Renicker 1.212.526.9425 ryan.renicker@lehman.com February 21, 2007
BAC – Expected Upside Following Investor Day
Bullish in the Medium Term
In the recent past, shares of BAC have underperformed its peers (JPM, C), possibly on account of the departure of its CFO,
persistent merger speculation (12/7 Reuters article titled “Barclays climbs on talk of bid approach” & 1/27 FT article titled “BofA
and Countrywide in alliance talks”) and asset quality concerns. BAC will be hosting an investor day on Feb. 26-27. Lehman’s
Large-Cap Banks analyst Jason Goldberg expects the company to reiterate that it expects to remain disciplined on the M&A front
and to highlight organic growth opportunities1.
BAC trades at the lowest multiple in our banks coverage universe (Figure 1) and has continued to trade at a forward P/E discount
in spite of MBNA integration issues abating. An up-beat investor day could allow BAC shares to outperform its group, in our
analyst’s view.
In a low volatility environment, implied volatility for some of the largest S&P 500 constituents appears cheap in absolute terms. 3-
month implied volatility for BAC closed at an all time low last night (Figure 2). This is partly explained by the fact that the stock
has realized just over 10% volatility over the last 6 months.
With the decline in front-month vols, BAC’s term structure looks fairly steep. 3-month implied volatility has been trading at an
almost 3 point discount to 12-month vols for the last few weeks.
Figure 1: BAC Cheap Relative to Peers Based on Fwd P/E Figure 2: 3-Month Implied Vol At All-Time Low
15 22%
BAC BAC 3-month Implied Vol
14 C 20% BAC 12-month Implied Vol
JPM
18%
13
16%
12
14%
11
12%
10
10%
9
5
6
05
5
06
6
5
6
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
g-
g-
ay
ay
ov
ov
b
b
Au
Au
Fe
Fe
4
4
5
5
6
6
4
5
6
04
05
06
07
M
M
N
N
r-0
-0
r-0
-0
r-0
-0
l-0
l-0
l-0
n-
n-
n-
n-
ct
ct
ct
Ju
Ju
Ju
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
O
O
O
Source: Lehman Brothers, Factset Source: Lehman Brothers
1
Please see Bank of America Investor Day Preview: Due for a Bounce?, Jason Goldberg, February 16, 2007 for additional details
on the fundamental thesis.
Lehman Brothers does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict
of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Customers of Lehman Brothers in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companies covered in this report, at no cost to them,
where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at www.lehmanlive.com or can call 1-800-2LEHMAN to request a copy of this research.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
PLEASE SEE ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 3.
2. BAC – Expected Upside Following Investor Day February 21, 2007
Trade Idea
For investors who own BAC, a low cost means of adding to their long position is to purchase the May07 55 calls for $0.85 and
fund them by writing the Jan08 60 calls for $0.80. This spread costs only about $0.05 because of the low volatility implied by May
options, while providing exposure to any potential near-term upside in BAC. As of the January 18, 2008 expiration for the short
leg, any upside beyond the $60 strike for the short leg would be sold away – this would represent more than 11% returns from
current levels.
Alternatively, investors looking to initiate a long position in the stock can buy the May07 55 calls outright. The $0.85 premium
represents about 1.6% of BAC’s closing price as of last night and is a very low premium for an at-the-money option with three
months to expiration.
2
3. BAC – Expected Upside Following Investor Day February 21, 2007
Analyst Certification:
I, Devapriya Mallick, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research email accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject
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recommendations or views expressed in this email.
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Options are not suitable for all investors and the risks of option trading should be weighed against the potential rewards. Supporting documents
that form the basis of the recommendations are available on request. Please note that the trade ideas within this report in no way relate to the
fundamental ratings applied to European stocks by Lehman Brothers' Equity Research. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must
review a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options (ODD).
Mentioned Stocks
Bank of America (BAC - USD54.05) 2-Equal weight / Positive A/D/J/K/L/M
Risks Which May Impede the Achievement of the Price Target: Integration risk from Fleet merger and the possibility of more large acquisitions in the future.
Reliance on market-sensitive activities for a portion of fee income (investment banking, trading, equity investments). Securities gains are expected to decline
from the high level of 1H04. BAC faces litigation risk related to its exposure to Parmalat and Worldcom.
Disclosure Legend:
A: Lehman Brothers Inc. and /or an affiliate managed or co-managed within the past 12 months a 144A and/or public offering of securities for this company.
D: Lehman Brothers Inc. or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from the subject company within the past 12 months.
J: Lehman Brothers Inc. or an affiliate trade(s) regularly in the shares of the subject company.
K: Lehman Brothers Inc. has received non-investment banking related compensation from the subject company within the last 12 months.
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Stock Rating
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horizon.
2-Equal weight - The stock is expected to perform in line with the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a 12-month
investment horizon.
3