Climate Change - by the Numbers

1. Climate Change By the Numbers Robert D. Cormia Foothill College

3. Solar Energy - earth’s Heat http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html

4. 250 years of Carbon Emissions It took 125 years to burn the first trillion barrels of oil – we’ll burn the next trillion in less than 30 years – why should you care?

5. Rising CO 2 over 50 Years http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/globalchange/keeling_curve/01.html See saw swings in CO 2 result from seasonal ‘biological production’

6. Temperatures over 1000 Years http://www.mala.bc.ca/~earles/ipcc-tar-feb01.htm

8. Ice Cores – Story of Vostok

12. GHGs and Vostok Data James Kirchner Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Berkeley

14. Dials on the Thermostat GHGs force energy into the planet, surface warming leads to feedbacks Thermal inertia Climate feedbacks GHGs CO 2 CH 4 Ice / albedo Water vapor Clouds Temperature

15. Missing feedbacks, asymmetric uncertainties, and the underestimation of future warming Margaret S. Torn and John Harte AGU GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 33, L10703 Effect of Climate Feedbacks

16. The Alpine Effect 90% reflective, 10% absorptive 50% reflective, 50% absorptive A surface that is 90% reflective absorbs 10% of incident solar radiation A surface that is 50% reflective absorbs 50% of incident solar radiation When surfaces melt and refreeze, surface texture changes , it is no longer ‘ white’, and a much higher amount of incident solar radiation is absorbed . Alpine surfaces are undergoing these changes, and absorbing five times or more of the solar radiation – not from being warmer, but from being ‘darker’ Permafrost is especially at risk of warming as the surface albedo changes

18. Carbon Emissions and CO 2 Carbon emissions can be used to predict atmospheric CO 2 with 99% confidence using simple linear regression data

22. http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/04.htm

23. Earth Out of Balance http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20050428/

24. Calculating Radiative Forcing 5.35 watts x ln [current ppm CO 2 ] _______________ [historic ppm CO 2 ] Temperature increase C = 2/3 Watts radiative forcing Historic CO 2 is 280 ppm, current CO 2 is 387 ppm

25. NASA Climate Model http://www.giss.nasa.gov/edu/gwdebate/

27. Projected Energy Demand

28. Future CO 2 – the Next 30 Yrs Devin Cormia ‘The Gaia Hypothesis’ Carlmont High School AP Bio Term Project 2005 Year Emissions CO 2 2000 283,373 369 2005 318,465 378 2010 357,209 388 2015 399,986 399 2020 447,216 411 2025 499,360 424 2030 556,932 439

30. Spreadsheet Modeling

31. Forcing / Heat From CO 2 Year CO 2 Forcing (W) 0 C / 0 F 1900 300 0.40 .27 / .48 1950 310 0.60 .40 / .71 1975 325 0.87 .58 / 1.05 2000 380 1.78 1.2 / 2.1 2025 420 2.37 1.6 / 2.8 2050 480 3.15 2.1 / 3.8 2075 510 3.50 2.3 / 4.2 2100 540 3.84 2.6 / 4.6

32. Forcing, Predicted Temperature, and Climate Lag, 2000 - 2100 0 F - Model built assuming ~60% of forcing is felt over 25 – 50 years

33. The Melting North Pole The North Pole is thinning in area ~10% per decade, and thinning in thickness ~1 meter per decade. At these rates, it may be an open sea as early as 2020 – 2030. Water then becomes an absorber, not a reflector. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/ClimateClues/

36. Arctic Sea Ice Thickness http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/Arctic_Warming_ESU.html

37. Greenland Ice Change http://www.comcast.net/data/news/photoshow/html/news/246569.html

39. Long Term Warming Effects

41. Affluence and Energy Use Income in dollars per capita per year Log energy BTU/ person / year slope intercept correlation 0.730938814 5.107092 0.91899

44. Global Carbon Profiles India 0.3 China 0.6 Mexico 1.0 France 2.0 Germany 2.2 England 2.5 Canada 4.0 USA 5.1 Developing World Europe North America Tons of carbon per person – year 2000 average = ~1.1 2025 at least 1.25

45. The Population Problem 8 billion people @ 1.25 tons each = 10 G tons of carbon / year That is 10% more carbon emissions than today!

47. GHG Emissions by Source

48. Carbon Intensity of Energy An ideal mixture of primary energy for electricity requires significant renewables

51. Honda Insight – MPG Champ 1 liter - 3 cylinders ‘ electric turbocharger’ 61 / 70 MPG Seating for two 2,000 pounds All aluminum body

52. A Real Hybrid Vehicle Gas Electric Synergy Drive™ - ‘plug-in hybrids’ coming soon

54. US GDP/VMT VMT data from green car congress => http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/05/us-vehicle-mile.html

58. Vision the Electron Economy